Headlines summary as of 12 October 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
9,445 (201 from prisons); (excluding ATK 1,368)	1,730,364 (last seven days: 73,133)	2,954/ 660	1,604,355 (+11,452)	1,701,501	35,462,170 (+ 368,278) BKK: 7,923,954 (+17,428)	1,774,584 (+41,363) BKK: 469,126 (+6,685)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	Active detection test rates (last seven days)
9,231 [8,987 (get tested in hospital) +244 (active case finding)]	13 (in SQ)	108,174 [67,762 in field hospital]	381,396 (+1,170)	17,835 (+84) (last seven days: 632)	61,033,251 (+ 805,146 ) BKK:  13,223,839 (+ 109,904)	23,796,497 (+ 395,505) BKK: 4,830,759 (+85,791)	14.68%

• The PM held a national televised speech on reopening the Kingdom to international tourists. The full speech can be accessed via—TAT News. Important announcement includes:
  • Thailand will allow fully vaccinated tourists from low-risk countries to enter the kingdom without quarantine from 1 November.
    • There will be at least ten low-risk countries, including Singapore, Germany, China and the US. More countries on the list will be added.
    • Tourists from countries not on the list will be required to undergo quarantine.
  • International visitors will need to show that they are COVID-free at their time of travel with an RT-PCR test undertaken before they leave their home country, and then have a test when arriving in Thailand.
  • These travellers would be allowed to visit any part of the country after meeting these requirements.
  • The government also expects to consider allowing the consumption of alcoholic beverages in restaurants as well as the operation of entertainment venues by 1 December.–Reuters

Politics

• In regard to the clash between the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) MPs and the advisor to the PPRP leader Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, there have been some comments to quell the speculation:
  • The Digital Economy Minister and PPRP MP denied the reports that there have been conflicts between the advisor and its MPs. The Minister said that the PM advisor might be new to the party and will need time to get to know with its MPs.—Thai Rath
  • Meanwhile, the Deputy PM and PPRP leader General Prawit said that he has everything under control and that there is no need for the media to concern.—Krungthep Turakij
  • The Labour Minister and PPRP main figure Suchart said that the clash is not a big issue and that everything must be up to the party leader. Suchart said the PM advisor must not get the priority in taking positions on behalf of the PPRP as he is a newcomer.–Matichon
• Former Energy Minister and PPRP secretary-general Sonthirat Sonthijirawong gave an interview in response to the earlier reports that he will join with other minor parties, namely the New Economy Party and Pheu Chart Party to set up a new political party. The main figure of the fallen-from-grace technocrat team said that he is not part of the political deal, but he said he is interested in politics.–Matichon
• The main opposition Pheu Thai Party is set to hold a meeting to make a decision on the political destiny of the 2 MPs, Saranwut Sarunket, Uttaradit MP and Pornpimol Thammasarn, MP. Pathum Thani MPs who broke the party’s resolution.–Matichon
• The Nang Lerng Police Station has filed former Future Forward Party leader case to the attorney general on royal defamation when the opposition leader held a Facebook live questioning the royal involvement of the AstraZeneca producing company.–Matichon

Analysis/ opinion

• Krungthep Turakij explores the factors why the PM might dissolve the Parliament in early 2023 which will be most beneficial to the ruling coalition:
  • The economic recovery from the pandemic will start picking up during the period after reopening the country by the end of this year.
  • 2022 will be a good chance for the government to introduce stimulus packages and the economic growth might bounce back.
  • The dissolution in 2023 will be best as it offers the government to finalise budget bill and the relocation of civil servants in October 2022.
  • Being the host of APEC meetings will require stability of the government.
  • The media point out to the constitutional condition for 90 days party membership minimum in case of an MP shifting party. If there is a dissolution, the minimum requirement will be that of 30 days.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic:

CBAM

• Ministry of Commerce (MoC) revealed that the EU has extended the public opinion hearing period on its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) draft law until 18 November.  To this end, MoC is urging Thai exporters to submit their comments on the draft law through the website https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/12228-EU-Green-Deal-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-_en.  MoC also noted exporters should prepare for potential repercussions of CBAM’s enforcement in 2023 on 5 product groups, namely cement, electricity, fertiliser, steel and aluminium.  MoC is also compiling its comments on the draft law, particularly its concerns on CBAM’s compliance with WTO regulations, preferential treatment between EU manufacturers and importers as well as the ensuing trade repercussions between both sides.  Source:  Department of Trade Negotiations Press Release  Manager Online

CPTPP

• The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has revised its GDP forecast for the Thai economy in 2021 to a growth of 0 – 1 percent following its meeting yesterday, with export expected to expand by 12 – 14 percent.  The JSCCIB will also submit a letter to PM Prayut to urge that the government make a decision on whether or not it will join the CPTPP negotiation, given that China, the UK and Taiwan are all keen to join the trade pact.  Should Thailand delay its decision further, it will have to negotiate under the conditions set by 11 rather than 9 member countries and lose trade advantages to Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore.  JSCCIB will continue to press the MFA’s International Economic Policy Committee to organise a seminar to explain the impacts of CPTPP on the Thai economy to the public, private and NGO sectors.  The JSCCIB also wants PM Prayut to consider revising its co-payment stimulus scheme by raising the limit for government subsidy to 6,000 Baht from 3,000 Baht per person.  Sources:  Bangkok Post Prachachart Turakij

APEC

• DPM Supattanapong represented Thailand at the 27^th APEC Small and Medium Enterprises Ministerial Meeting, where he discussed Thailand’s plan to develop a digital ecosystem to help Thai MSMEs recover from COVID-19 and promote good well-being.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij  Poojadkarn Online

Others

• The Board of Investment (BOI) has approved incentives to promote entrepreneurs to upgrade their production and machinery to Industry 4.0 standards.  The incentives include a 3-year corporate income tax exemption covering 100 percent of investment for industry 4.0 upgrade in sectors such as Automoation & Network Technology; Smart Operation; Digital Technology in Production & Enterprise Process.  The goal is to upgrade 10,000 factories in the EEC to become smart factories in 5 years. 
• BOI’s total investment application value in the first 9 months of 2021 was 521 billion Baht; doubling the value generated in 2020 and also exceeding the total value for the whole year of 2020.  The first 9 months saw 1,273 project applications, compared to 1,623 project applications for the entire year of 2020.  Meanwhile, the Eastern Economic Corridor accounted for 33 percent of the combined investment value applications, with 348 projects worth 174 billion Baht; or a 60.6 percent YoY increase.  Sources:  Bangkok Post  Krungthep Turakij newspaper, 12 October 2021
• Koh Samui’s sandbox program received positive feedback after it lifted the mandatory quarantine, with forward bookings in the first 10 days of October made by 955 tourists, which already exceeded its total forward booking number since its opening on July 15 (booking was from 907 tourists from July 15-Sept 30).  Source:  Bangkok Post  
• Cha-am’s reopening plan on 1 November, known as Cha-am Sunshine, is anticipated to attract 1,000 international arrivals per month and generate 15-20 million Baht monthly by the end of 2021.  On 13 October, state agencies and operators in Cha-am and Hua Hin will discuss the details on connecting the routes between the 2 areas.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• A Digital Innovation Centre spanning 40,000 square metres of space is planned for Thailand Digital Valley, located in Chon Buri’s Si Racha district, in the next 24 months to allow technology testing and development, according to the Digital Economy and Society Ministry.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 11 October 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
10,035 (72 from prisons); (excluding ATK 2,263)	1,720,919 (last seven days: 73,557)	2,969/ 680	1,592,903 (+10,590)	1,692,056	35,093,892 (+311,265) BKK: 7,894,512 (+10,352)	1,733,221 (+31,779) BKK: 455,084 (+1,563)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	Active detection test rates (last seven days)
9,916 [9,160 (get tested in hospital) +756 (active case finding)]	39 (in SQ)	110,625 [68,335 in field hospital]	380,226 (+1,227)	17,751 (+60) (last seven days: 640)	60,228,105 (+  688,481) BKK:  13,074,057 (+ 56,491)	23,400,992 (+345,437) BKK: 4,724,461 (+44,576)	14.68%

• The MFA spokesperson said that the cordial international relations between the Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Don Paramutwinai and European countries have resulted in the successful procurement of 400,000 doses of Astra Zeneca from Hungary at the cost price. The spokesperson said that apart from Budapest, Bangkok has got 346,100 doses of Astra Zeneca donated from Berlin and 100,620 of Pfizer vaccines from Reykjavík.—Krungthep Turakij
• The deputy government spokesperson said that there is a concern over the young Tik Tok users who are distributing misinformation over the side effects of the Pfizer vaccines. The spokesperson said that the administering vaccines have got the WHO and American FDA approvals. The PM, according to the spokesperson, has instructed related agencies easing the students concerns.—Krungthep Turakij
• The vocal Rural Doctor Society has come out to warn that the pandemic is on the rise again and calls for the people to be cautious. The RDS pointed out to the record high of 10,817 ATK cases on 10 October and that the patients with severe condition remain as high as 3,000 patients.—Naew Na

Politics

• After the PM is reported to ascend the Constitutional amendment motion for the Royal approval on Friday, Deputy PPRP leader and the head of the amendment committee MP Paiboon outlined four issues related to the electoral systems that will be amended:
  • 1. The amendment of constituency vis-à-vis party-listed MPs ratio from 350-150 to that of 400-100.
  • 2. The amendment to two-ballot system: one for constituency; the other for party-listed MP.
  • 3.  The amendment of party-listed MP formula from MMP (Mixed Member Proportional) to Mixed-member majoritarian (MMM) which mean there will be no more party-listed MP which got less than 1 percent votes.
  • 4. The amendment to use one number for both constituency and party-listed MP election (currently different number for each constituency to prevent vote-buying).—Siam Rath
• It’s a mixed reaction for the PM advisor Pirapan Salirathavibhaga getting into the main-ruling Palang Pracharat Party:
  • Anucha Nakasai, the Minister to the PM Office and main figure in the PPRP welcomed the PM advisor as the PPRP leader advisor and said he did not see any political implication from the appointment.—Krungthep Turakij
  • Meanwhile, PPRP vocal MP Sira Jenjaka said that it is impossible for the PM advisor to get into the party to change the PPRP structure and he hoped the senior figure not to do anything that might undermine the party reputation.—Thai Rath The MP said in response to the reports that Mr Pirapan will be one of the PPRP PM candidates in the next election that if Mr Pirapan is qualified, the Democrat Party where he built his political career for the entire life must have named him its PM candidate.–Matichon
• Nida Poll released its latest survey on three significant political issues:
  • On the ambiguity of the eight year tenure of PM Prayut, what should General Prayut do? 40.73% of the people said that the PM should declare that his term will end in August next year and step down; 38.37% said that the PM should submit the issue for the Constitutional Court clarity; and 15.03% said that the PM should not do anything.
  • On the House Dissolution: 40.35% of the people think that the PM should announce the dissolution as soon as possible; 30.05% thinks that the government should dissolve the House after the organic laws on the new electoral system are finished; 22.12% thinks that there is no need for the dissolution and that the government should stay on to power until the House term ends; and 5.72%  thinks that the PM should dissolve the House before the next censure debate.
  • On the cabinet reshuffle: 50.43% thinks that there should be a major reshuffle, 18.92% thinks thatthere should not be any reshuffle; 12.36% thinks that the PM should fill in the two vacant portfolios with non-politicians; and 11.82% thinks that there should be a reshuffle for only the two vacant portfolios.
• Former Democrat figure and now far-right Thai Bakdhi Party leader Warong Dechgitvigrom hosted its party reception event on Saturday underlining the new ‘royalist’ party policy to protect the revered institution from the ‘reformist’ and has pledged to file MP candidate in every constituency. The party leader said he is ready to be the next Prime Minister and has coined in a cutting-edge policy in transforming Thailand to be the new spaceship-launching base.—Krungthep Turakij
• The Thai Lawyer for Human Rights Group tweeted that they got informed by a 14-year-old juvenile that the police came to apprehend and force the kid to confess as the shooter of the Riot Control Police on 6^th October.–Matichon
• Former Red-shirt leader and recent ‘Thai Mai Thon’ protest leader against PM Prayut Jatuporn Promphan is set to be freed after getting the royal pardon on 13 October. The protest leader was jailed on defamation laws against former PM Abhisit. He was released by royal pardon and returned to jailed again for breaking its conditions.–Matichon
• In the first day of nomination for the Sub-District Administrative Organization (SAO), an executive from the Progressive Movement announced that the successive movement of the Future Forward Party will file more than 200 teams for the upcoming SAO election (28 November) in every region.–Matichon

Economic:

Long Term Resident Visa Package

• The Revenue Department is considering lowering personal income tax for foreign experts to 17 percent following the cabinet’s approval of the Long Term Resident (LTR) visa package on 14 September.  The 17 percent tax rate is the same as that offered by the EEC, with the exception being that the foreign experts eligible for LTR visa can work anywhere in Thailand.  Eligible LTR visa foreign experts must also work in fields in which Thailand is facing a shortage.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Customs Department has completed its analysis on the reduction of import duties for wine, alcoholic beverages and cigars by 50 percent for 5 years and is set to propose it to Finance Ministry for consideration soon.  However, Customs does not believe the tariff cuts will be instrumental in luring more foreign talents to Thailand since the items subjected to the tariff cuts are inexpensive, with low existing tariff rate of 30-60 percent.  Nevertheless, Customs is prepared to lower the tariffs if Finance Ministry believes it works. 
• Board of Investment (BOI) is deliberating on adapting the principles of the Smart Visa to the LTR visa.  BOI is currently in talks with the Ministries of Interior, Foreign Affairs and Labour as well as Immigration Department to draft the LTR visa guideline.
• The Thai Chamber of Commerce asked the government to establish an ad-hoc committee to consult with the private sector on important regulation changes necessary for the enforcement of LTR visa package, such as foreign land ownership quota and the abolishment of 4:1 (Thai: foreign worker) ratio.
• TDRI suggests the government remain open to comments from the private sector and revise a range of regulations in order to attract foreign direct investments into Thailand.  The Stock Exchange Commission noted that in addition to investment incentives, foreign investors and businessmen also make investment decisions based on the country’s digital infrastructure and ease of doing business.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij
• The real estate sector has responded to the government’s LTR visa package by proposing that foreign ownership quota be raised from 49 percent to 75 percent, and to expand leasehold property rental period from 30 to 90 years.  It suggested that the LTR visa be issued to medical or wellness visitors to help Thailand’s become a medical hub.  It also cautioned the government that the regulation changes should not attract foreign holding companies or nominees, particularly the Chinese, to buy properties in Thailand.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij newspaper, 11 October 2021

APEC

• On 8 October, PM Prayut presided over the third meeting of the committee that oversees the preparation for the 2022 APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting and related meetings.  This will be the last meeting before New Zealand is to officially hand over APEC chairmanship to Thailand in November.  At this meeting, PM Prayut instructed related parties to promote the Bio-Circular-Green economic model, climate change, human rights, women’s roles and inclusivity.  Source:  Manager Online  National News Bureau of Thailand fb page 

Others

• Standard Chartered forecasted that Thailand’s tourism sector will take at least 3 years to rebound to pre-pandemic level even as it starts to reopen to foreign tourists in November, with the Thai economy expected to remain weak throughout 2022-2023.  For the first 8 months of 2021, Thailand’s foreign tourist arrivals dropped to 73,932 visitors from almost 40 million in 2019.  Standard Chartered expected that 6 million tourist arrivals are needed to offset the current account shortfall of USD 8.5 billion from January – August this year.  Next year, the 4 million arrivals could generate revenue equivalent to 1 percent of GDP, based on the assumption that they spend USD1,500 per person.  Sources:  Bloomberg  Post Today
• Phuket tourism operators have asked the government to salvage its tourism sector by establishing a 5-billion Baht tourism fund.  They suggested that some 3.5 billion Baht is to be allocated to the first sub-fund to help MSMEs, such as by upgrading unlicensed hotels to join the Phuket Sandbox scheme; 1 billion Baht for the second sub-fund to develop the OTOP products and commodities; and 500 million Baht for the third sub-fund to improve tourism destinations and environment.  The capital for the fund could come from the Bank of Thailand’s 250 billion Baht loan, the Phuket sandbox bond or the government’s budget.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) has asked the government to carefully deal with two key economic issues — the global oil price surge and baht depreciation to avoid a greater burden on the pandemic-plagued economy.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 5 October 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
9,869 (273 from prisons); (excluding ATK 3,495)	1,657,231 (last seven days: 75,816)	3,013/ 701	1,531,655 (+11,152)	1,628,368	33,243,525  (+255,607) BKK: 8,094,566 (+10,933)	1,515,667 (+49,880) BKK: 351,548 (+4,658)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	Active detection test rates (last seven days)
9,579 [8,715 (get tested in hospital) + 864 (active case finding)]	17 (in SQ)	108,373 [71,724 in field hospital]	372,859 (+1,224)	14,203 (+92) (last seven days: 705)	55,921,443 (+770,947) BKK: 12,650,674 (+63,393)	21,162,251 (+465,460) BKK: 4,204,560 (+47,802)	13.16%

• In yet the other round of global shocking ‘Pandora Papers’ by ICIJ, top six richest families in Thailand are on the list. They are
  • Jutinan Bhirombhakdi—Singha
  • Chalerm Yoovidhya—Red Bull
  • Supachai Chearavanont—CP
  • Tos Chirathivat—Central
  • Sarath Ratanavadi—Gulf Energy
  • Petch Osathanugrah—Osotspa—Isra News
• Thailand began to roll out COVID-19 vaccines to high school students on Monday, in a bid to boost its immunisation rate ahead of a planned school reopening next month. The authority has given Pfizer vaccines to the young. The Bangkok Governor has expected that the two doses vaccination can be completed by October.–Reuters
• The National Water Command Centre has issued flood warnings in Pathum Thani, Nonthaburi and riverside areas of Bangkok. The warning stated that the water level will rise to that of 30 to 50 centimetres.—Khao Sod
• The German ambassador met the PM to hand over 2,000 units of Covid treatment medicines (Casirivimab/Imdevimab) to the Kingdom and announced that the 346,100 AZ doses pledge will arrive in mid-October.—Thai Rath
• The PM has ordered Crime Suppression Police to tackle the arms-dealers who have connections to many sectors, including the bureaucrats in Greater Bangkok.—Krungthep Turakij

Politics

• For fear that the Democrat will leave the coalition, the PM just issued an order to revoke his earlier order which had authorised Deputy PM Prawit to look after four departments under fired Deputy Agriculture Minister Thammanat.—Krungthep Turakij
  • The Deputy PM and Democrat leader Jurin said that he had talked the issue with the PM and he believed the PM will resolve this by placing the coalition unity as the priority.–Matichon
  • The PM order to strip Deputy Minister Thammanat out of portfolio should leave the four departments under the Democrat control as its secretary-general Chalermchai is the Agriculture Minister. The order to give the departments to be in Deputy PM control was seen as a over-stepping for the Democrats.—Nation TV
• The head of reconciliation committee in the House has suggested two means to end the protracted political conflicts and will submit the full report to the House Speaker in November. The two suggestions are first, to hold a meeting between the government and conflicting parties and second, to hold an arbitrary process before prosecution.—Krungthep Turakij
• A senior PPRP adviser told Thai Enquirer on anonymity that “many inside the party are now confident that a dissolution will happen, maybe as early as November” and the PM continual denial of house dissolution is just for show. The source said as the House will reconvene in November and learn the inconvenient truth that he cannot pass a bill, let alone govern, the PM will strike first by dissolve the House to save himself from embarrassment.—Thai Enquirer

Economic

• Tourism operators are concerned about the 500 Baht fee collection from tourists next year as it might impede the sector’s recovery.  This is because the cost is considerably high compared with the average expenditure of travelling in Thailand, while the mechanism of this policy still requires elaborate planning to ensure its feasibility.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The government has revised investment plans under the Eastern Economic Corridor, which is expected to drive the economy to grow by 4.5-5 percent annually between 2022 and 2016.  Much hope is pinned on the EEC to attract investments worth 1.1 trillion Baht from infrastructure projects and investment in targeted industries.  The plans are approved by the EEC Policy Committee chaired by PM Prayut.  For this year, investment in the EEC is anticipated at 1.7 trillion Baht.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand expects to open Smart Park in Rayong province to serve S-Curve industries in the EEC in 2024  The IEAT has hired a Thai firm to supervise the construction of the 12-billion Baht industrial estate, which is expected to drive development of robotics, medical equipment, aviation and aerospace industries.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 4 October 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
9,930 (362 from prisons); (excluding ATK 1,743)	1,647,362 (last seven days: 75,436)	3,071/ 719	1,520,503 (+12,336)	1,618,499	32,987,918 (+83,168) BKK: 8,074,819 (+1,397)	1,465,772 (+33,014) BKK: 346,269 (+1,892)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	Active detection test rates (last seven days)
9,561 [8,954 (get tested in hospital) + 607 (active case finding)]	7 (in SQ)	109,748 [72,212 in field hospital]	371,635 (+1,137)	17,111 (+97) (last seven days: 742)	55,150,481 (+281,070) BKK: 12,572,971 (+17,287)	20,696,791 (+164,888) BKK: 4,151,883 (+13,998)	13.94%

• The Government Pharmaceutical Organisation said that they are ready to dispatch affordable antigen test kits in the GPO pharmacies around Bangkok. The GPO will start selling two million sets of 40 THB ATK from 18 October in a bid to help curb the pandemic.—Khao Sod
• The PM has ordered Crime Suppression Police to tackle the arms-dealers who have connections to many sectors, including the bureaucrats in Greater Bangkok.—Krungthep Turakij

Politics

• The police has apprehended three suspects who threw a bomb-like object at patrol police car at CBD Ratchaprasong Intersection this morning. At this stage, it is reported that the three suspects have the history of joining anarchic-prone protestors in Din Daeng Intersection.—Krungthep Turakij
• The prospect for cabinet reshuffle is getting more prominent as media starts to speculate the new cabinet list:

Outlets/ Figures	General Prawit	General Anupong	Suphachai (former UNCTAD chief)	Chatchai (former Interior perm-sec)	Nutthapol (former NSC chief)	Suphattanapong	Don
Daily News and Manager	Deputy PM	Deputy PM and Interior Minister	Deputy PM (economic tzar) and Energy Minister	A deputy minister in any ministry	PM advisor	Out of cabinet	Out of cabinet
Inside Thailand	Deputy PM (1st) and Interior Minister	Deputy PM (7th)	*on condition that Prin (son of Supachai), the economic head of Democrat joins PPRP	Waiting list	Waiting list	Deputy PM (6th) and Energy Minister	Deputy PM (5th) and Foreign minister

• Despite many media speculation on reshuffle after the PM stripped two ministers out of the cabinet, the PM said that ‘there might not be a reshuffle’.—Krungthep Turakij
• The Deputy PM and PPRP leader General Prawit said there will not be any reshuffle. The government is working hard to help dealing with the country dominant problems first.—Khao Sod

• Even though, main figures in the government stressed that there will not be a cabinet reshuffle, there are various developments signifying that the House Dissolution is approaching:
  • The Election Commission has submitted its letters to all political parties informing them to get ready for the next election, but the Election Commissioner dismissed the letters are signs for the House Dissolution.–Matichon  
  • Main figures in the ruling Democrat Party are throwing their support behind their party leader Jurin as the party PM candidate in the upcoming election. The party vows to get at least 100 MPs in the upcoming election and become a main party in forming the next government.—Krungthep Turakij
  • The secretary-general of the PPRP did a site-visit for primary vote of PPRP MP candidate in Samut Sakhon. The PPRP sec-gen said that the party is organising primary votes in 400 districts.—Krungthep Turakij
  • Coalition Chatthai Pattana Party said that the party will hold its party’s executives meeting on 12 October to discuss on issues related to the election. The party director said however, that he does not think the election will be occurring this year as the government must finish the local election within this year first. The veteran MP expects the election to be occurred on the first half of 2022.—Krungthep Turakij
• Matichon wrote a special report on the tree future tracks of the 3Ps troika (PM Prayut, Deputy PM Prawit and Interior Minister Anupong ‘Pok’):
  • Matichon views that PM Prayut has been eyeing to have the deputy Lord Chamberlain and former Army Chief Apirat as his political successor, but according to the current Constitution General Apirat who concurrently served as the Senator is barred from taking any political position within two years after his Senate term. By this track, the PM must hold the coalition together until the former Army chief can take the position in October 2022.
  • The second track is to have PM aide Pirapan Salirathavibhaga and the new PPRP chief strategist to join the PPRP PM candidate with PM Prayut in the upcoming election to balance out the party popularity. This combination will be good for the PM and the PPRP secretary-general who is reportedly highly respect and love the chief strategist.
  • The third track is a reconciliation track attracting MPs from the main opposition Pheu Thai Party to join the coalition or PPRP as the sole way to steer the Kingdom out of protracted conflict. This deal will effectively keep the more progressive and less royalist wing in Pheu Thai and Move Forward Party at bay in the new coalition.—Matichon Weekly
• Nida Poll released its latest Bangkok Governor Poll and the result showed that the Independent and former Transport Minister Chatchart remains the top of the league.

Candidates	Oct 2021	Sep 2021	July 2021
Chadchart Sittipunt	29.74	27.71	26.16
Cannot decide	27.92	24.6	27.98
Chakthip (Former Police Chief)	13.66	15.49	14.6
Asawin (incumbent governor)	9.33	9.57	9.58
Rossana (former Senator)	4.1	4.1	3.04
Suchatchavee (University rector-Democrat)	3.26	1.67	1.37
Any candidate from Move Forward	2.73	5.24	3.58
Any candidate from Pheu Thai Party	2.2	3.27	4.87
Any candidate from Democrat Party	1.97	2.2	1.6
Sakolti (Deputy Governor)	1.29	0.76	1.29
Vote No	1.14	1.37	1.29

Economic:

CPTPP

• FTA Watch’s Vice Chairman, Kannikar Kittiwejakul, pointed out that China’s accession to CPTPP will not benefit Thailand much more than the existing FTA between China and Thailand.  FTA Watch continues to object to Thailand joining CPTPP and has criticised the government for trying to downplay the severity of the sensitive issues regarding Thailand’s accession.  It has also lashed out on the government’s inactivity since June in addressing the various concerns of Thailand’s accession, particularly on the provisions that Thailand has no prior exposure to.  Source:  Prachachart Turakij
• The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) forecasts that the Thai economy will grow by 6-8 percent in 2022, which will offset the GDP contraction in 2020.  To this end, it urges the Thai government to decide whether or not to participate in CPTPP negotiation by October at the latest.  This is because China, Taiwan and the UK have also expressed interests to accede, for which Thailand must be swift in joining CPTPP to avoid having to negotiate with more members.  JSCCIB added that Thailand must lure more investments into new industries by revamping the investment incentives offered by BOI and EEC, in combination with signing new FTAs such as CPTPP and Thai-EU.  The JSCCIB is also working on establishing the ‘Thailand Plus’ team, which will coordinate with the Thai government and private sector to expand Thai businesses into China and the US from 2022 onard.  Source:  Prachachat Turakij

Tourism

• Tourism and Sports Ministry (MoST) plans to start collecting a 500 Baht tourism fee for ‘tourism transformation fund’ in 2022.  MoST aims to collect 5 billion Baht within 2022 based on the forecast that Thailand welcomes 10 million foreign arrivals.  Of the 500 Baht fee collected, some 200 Baht will go to projects initiated by the private sector, community enterprises or social enterprises that will restructure the country through BCG economic model or from mass tourism to high-value or environmentally-friendly tourism.  The project might be funded by a co-payment scheme with contributions by both the government and private sector.  The remaining 300 Baht is budget for insurance and development projects for foreign visitors.  Source:  Bangkok Post  Khao Sod
• The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) aims to increase inbound visitors from Asian markets during the high season via travel bubble schemes with South Korea and India, for which it is negotiating.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Others

• The new 2-tier excise tax structure for cigarettes is likely to push up the retail price of low-priced cigarettes by 6 Baht per pack.  This means the retail price of low-cost cigarettes is expected to rise to a range of 66-72 Baht per pack from the current 60 Baht.  Currently a 20 percent tax applies to cigarettes priced at 60 Baht per pack of 20.  The new structure applies 25 percent tax on cigarette packs with retail price of 72 Baht and 42 percent for packs priced higher than 72 Baht.  Packs are also subject to an additional tax of 1.25 Baht per cigarette, regardless of the retail price.  Overall, 1 pack is subject to 25 Baht of tax.  Source:  Bangkok Post  Thai PBS
• World bank has slashed Thailand’s GDP projection for 2021 to 1 percent from 2.2 percent due to the impacts of the pandemic.  However, Thailand’s GDP may rebound to a growth of 3.6 percent in 2023, given its mass vaccination rollout and improvements in the pandemic situation.  Moreover, COVID-19 has hiked up the number of people living under the poverty line by 170,000 in 2021 compared to 2020.  World Bank forecasted that Thailand will welcome only 160,000 foreign tourists in 2021 and 1.6 million tourists in 2022, during which time export will remain Thailand’s driving engine.  Source: Thai PBS
• Leading telecom operators said a comprehensive 5G ecosystem has the potential to unlock digital power for business operations, new lifestyles, healthcare and agriculture in the years to come as well as raise the country’s competitiveness.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) forecasted that the current flooding could incur a damage of 10 – 20 billion Baht, which will chip away Thailand’s GDP growth by 0.1-0.2 percent.  The inundation this year is not expected to be as severe as back in 2011, with the floodwater anticipated to affect farming areas and houses where economic loss is small.  Nevertheless, UTCC asked that the government provide compensations to those affected by the flood and resort to boosting state revenue collection through tourism.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij

Headlines summary as of 1 October 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
11,754 (120 from prisons); (excluding ATK 5,150)	1,615,229 (last seven days: 77,919)	3,144/ 709	1,483,146 (+12,473)	1,586,366	32,577,832 (+ 792,116) BKK: 8,050,083 (+5,927)	1,368,406 (+ 144,149) BKK: 321,913 (+4,010)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	Active detection test rates (last seven days)
11,242 [9,998 (get tested in hospital) + 1,244 (active case finding)]	11 (in SQ)	115,233 [75,942 in field hospital]	368,046 (+1,423)	16,850 (+123) (last seven days: 834)	53,784,812 (+ 2,288,728) BKK: 12,377,295 (+47,757)	19,838,574 (+ 1,352,463) BKK: 4,005,299 (+37,820)	13.49%

Politics

• The cabinet reshuffle is looming large and the new list is being circulated. It is reported that the Interior Minister Anupong will also take the Deputy PM portfolio, former WTO director Supachai Panitchpakdi to be the next economic tzar replacing Suphattanapong (the DPM and Energy Minister) and it is reported that the PM is eyeing for a perfect candidate to fill in the very senior Foreign Minister. It is also expected that the freshly retired Interior Permanent Secretary and National Security Council chief will be a deputy minister and a security advisor to the PM, consecutively.—Daily Newsand Manager
• A source in the Government House has revealed that the PM has ordered to rearrange a new room on the Command Building where Deputy PMs seat. The order happens on the backdrop of highly expected retired Interior permanent-secretary to join the cabinet.—Khao Sod
• After Colonel Suchart former Southern Chief Strategist of the party and colleague of the PM announced that he and other Southern PPRP MPs will leave PPRP and join the highly expected political party to be set up by retiring Interior permanent secretary.—Thai Rath
  • A representative of the Southern PPRP MPs said that he and other MPs do not share the same view with Colonel Suchart. The MP from Nakhon Sri Thammarat said that it is up to the PM colleague to join the new party, but they remain with the PPRP.—Krungthep Turakij
  • A Southern PPRP MP from Phuket said that 7 to 8 MPs will have a meeting and will announce its statement by the end of week whether to remain with the PPRP.—Thai Rath
  • The freshly retired permanent-secretary said, however, he does not wish to set up a new political party and that after retirement, he would like to be an ordinary citizen. When asked whether he is eyeing to set up a new party in the future, he said he want to focus on the present not the future.—Matichon
  • Krungthep Turakij argued that the action of the PM friend was nothing but to proof himself valuable to the Southern MPs and might eye a portfolio in the upcoming reshuffle.—Krungthep Turakij
• The PM faced with harsh protest when he went for a site visit in Nonthaburi. His entourage had to take the ferry to avoid the protestors.—Krungthep Turakij
• It is reported that on 30th September, the PPRP held its electoral district chiefs meeting when the Deputy PM and PPRP leader General Prawit said the main ruling party be able to win 150 to 200 MPs. A source in the PPRP said that General Prawit affirmed the party will nominate PM Prayut as its PM candidate, there is no change into that.—Matichon
• In response to the PM order to return legal authority to related ministers during the peak of the pandemic, the Deputy PM and Public Health Minister Anutin said the PM reverse order does not make a difference as a minister, since we have to listen to the PM direction.—Matichon

Analysis/ opinion

• Matichon asked opinions from political scientists on the intra-troika conflicts, the potential new party and the limit of 8 years tenure:
  • Electoral system expert Siripan Sawaddee from Chulalongkorn University said that the House Dissolution is sooner, not later and we have to focus on which factors might expedite the decision. The political science pundit said the constitutional condition for any PM to not have an 8 years tenure regardless of term will be his most drawbacks as for any political party, the PM who has been serving for quite some times might be no use as his tenure is proved to be short. The academia said that should the PM eyes to set up a new twin party of the PPRP and will not be beneficial under the two ballot system, then the PM might dissolve the House sooner than later.
  • Pichai Rattanadirok Na Phuket at NIDA Institute said the tenure limit is interesting in that it will be a decisive factor for political party to nominate Prayut. The political scientist said that should the next election is held under the two ballot system, the PPRP might have around 50 to 60 MPs, the same with the new twin party. The main beneficiary from the electoral system will be Pheu Thai. The pundit said that even though the ruling elites and some politicians might throw its support behind Prayut but it is not enough to make sure they will win the next election, considering the government mismanagement.
• Anti-CCP Chinese expert Associate Professor Dr Wassana Wongsurawat gave an interview to Krungthep Turakij on Chinese national day. The Chinese expert said the pandemic is disrupting the world order as we knew it to the point that Beijing must shift its grand strategy-there has been less discussion on BRI. The pundit said that the biggest threat that China is facing is nothing but the CCP and the aftermath of it is the rising nationalist wave in China. The Chinese historian said that the reason why Beijing is purging the people in entertainment complex and Alibaba is a fight for allegiance—the CCP does not want anyone to become more popular than the party.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Tourism

• CESA approved the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s (TAT) plan to promote Phuket as a world-class destination, with a goal of generating 60 billion Baht in Q4 of 2021 and through to Q1 of 2022.  In the next 6 months, Phuket anticipates it will generate tens of billions of Baht from the 1 million foreign arrivals.  This is partly because in Q4 2021, starting from October, quarantine days will be reduced from 14 to 7 days, while 8 travel measures will also be eased.  Since the launch of the sandbox scheme in July, Phuket had welcomed 37,978 travellers, which generated a total of 2.25 billion Baht.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• TAT also unveiled the campaign Visit Thailand Year 2022, Now Even More Amazing campaign to promote Thai tourism next year.  It also suggested that a 5 billion Baht tourism fund be established to revamp Thai tourism and reform the tourism sector to achieve sustainable growth.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij newspaper, 1 October 2021

Others

• Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput said at the BOT Symposium 2021 that the Thai economy must become resilient in order to cope with a crisis.  For this, he suggested Thailand adopt proper risk management, restructure the economy and diversify industrial sectors to reduce over-reliance on a single manufacturing sector, bring the informal sector into the formal sector, reduce inequality, protect households and businesses during a crisis and reduce economic scar.  BOT also expects economic inequality to widen after the pandemic is reigned in.  Vulnerable segments such as low-income households and SMEs will likely to continue to suffer from an uneven, K-Shape recovery.  Source:  Bangkok Post  Krungthep Turakij newspaper, 1 October 2021
• At the Go Green online seminar organised by Krungthep Turakij newspaper, Environment Minister Worrawut announced that Thailand is prepared to reduce greenhouse gas emission to zero by year 2100 as per its commitments at the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement.  Ministry of Commerce (MoC) noted that the environment as well as sustainable trade and development are becoming important topics at multilateral negotiation platforms such as the WTO, APEC, AEC.  However, MoC also warned that carbon emission is being increasingly used as a form Non-Tariff Barrier among the global communities.  MoC suggested Thai entrepreneurs adopt environmentally friendly measures and the BCG principles.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij newspaper, 1 October 2021
• Finance Ministry is deliberating on injecting fresh money into the economy in Q4 2021 and extending the various stimulus packages in response to forecasts by economists that the Thai economy will become stagnant in Q4.  Thai Chamber of Commerce University recommends that the government revamp the Shop Dee mee Khuen scheme to offer tax deduction of 50,000 Baht to effectively boost domestic spending.  Source:  Bangkok Post  Krungthep Turakij newspaper, 1 October 2021
• The government eyes allocating 46.9 billion Baht from the 500 billion Baht loan decree to roll out more measures to help SMEs retain workers and generate new jobs.  NESDC noted the measures will involve the government handing out 3,000 Baht monthly to each worker from November 2021 to January 2022.  If an employer agrees to create jobs, the government will pay 3,000 Baht monthly to each worker they hire during this period.  The measure is to cover 480,122 SMEs and will create 252,009 new jobs between December 2021 and January 2022.  Eligible employers and employees must register for Social Security Fund under Section 33.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• ASEAN is poised to resume free trade talks with the EU after negotiations were suspended since 2009.  Commerce Vice-Minister Sansern said both sides agreed to prepare for the negotiations of an ASEAN-EU FTA and hold joint expert meetings on new trade issues such as e-commerce, government procurement and sustainable trade and development.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Commerce Minister Jurin revealed that cross-border trade, including transit trade, grew by 31.2 percent in the first 8 months of this year, valued at 1.11 trillion Baht.  He anticipates the 2021 cross-border trade to exceed the growth target of 3-6 percent set earlier by Commerce Ministry after reporting a 1.7 decline in 2020.  Source:  Bangkok Post