Headlines summary as of 27 September 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
10,288 (127 from prisons); (excluding ATK 2,306)	1,543,063 (last seven days: 82,740)	3,341/ 728	1,435,401 (+12,494)	1,543,063	31,548,310 (+62,276 ) BKK: 7,975,762 (+3,667)	1,125,675 (+16,586 ) BKK: 260,269 (+ 7,146)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	4th dose vaccine recipients (from 26 September)
10,149 [9,180 (get tested in hospital) + 969 (active case finding)] positive rate: 13.41%	12 (in SQ)	120,156 [86,397 in field hospital]	361,857 (+1,785)	16,369 (+101) (last seven days: 900)	50,566,651 (+175,926) BKK: 11,967,159 (+3,667)	17,891,858 (+97,061) BKK: 3,731,128 (+19,211)	808 (+3)

• On the 134 anniversary of Japanese-Thai diplomatic relations, Japan has donated 300,000 doses of AstraZeneca vaccines to Thailand. This is the third lot and Tokyo has given Thailand 1.65 doses in total.–CCSA
• The PM chaired the plenary CCSA meeting today and has made the following resolutions. The resolutions will need to be approved by the cabinet.
  • The extension of Emergency Decree for  two more months until 30 November.
  • The reduction of curfew time from 9.00 to 10.00pm, effective from 1 October.
  • Reopening of areas to welcome fully-vaccinated tourists.
  • The ease/ reopening of the following businesses:
    • Nurseries
    • Public, private and community  libraries
    • Museums and historical sites
    • Science & culture centers and art galleries
    • Indoor-sport gymnasiums and fitness centers
    • Nail salons
    • Tattoo parlors (fully vaccinated or customers with proofs of Covid-free)
    • Health spas
    • Cinemas and cram schools in shopping malls
    • Convenience stores open until 9.00pm
    • Live performance in restaurants.
  • The new scheme for quarantine:
    • For fully vaccinated visitors with vaccine certificate: 7 days with two RT-PCR tests required.
    • For visitors who are not fully vaccinated or do not have vaccine certificate: 10 days with two RT-PCR tests.
    • And 14 days for visitors who arrive the Kingdom by land.
• The Restaurant Association has submitted its open letter to the PM and the Public Health Minister to extend the restaurant operating hours to be until 10.00pm nation-wide.–Matichon

Politics

• There has been major movements in the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP).
  • It is reported that the Deputy PM and PPRP leader General Prawit will nominate Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, the PM advisor ( widely reported to be very close to the PM) and Somsak Thepsuthin, the Justice Minister as the advisors to the party leader.—Krungthep Turakij
  • Deputy PPRP secretary-general Pai Leeke gave an interview on the potential establishment of a new party split from the PPRP led by retiring Interior Permanent-Secretary that the party will inevitably be a rival to PPRP. He did not deny that the permanent secretary is eyeing to set up a new party. Pai has warned against setting up a new party and said doing so will reduce the possibility of the PPRP be the largest party in the House.—Inside Thailand
• Krungthep Turakij interviewed major figures in various parties to voice their opinions on the government stability and its future:
  • The Digital Economy Minister and PPRP party-listed MP said that the coalition will remain in power until the end of term and see no cause for House Dissolution. The Minister sees no problem from the intra-PPRP conflict as he believed the Deputy PM and PPRP leader Prawit can be on top of it. He sees the only thing that could topple the coalition that is PPRP conflicts.
  • Second largest Bhumjaithai Party Registrar and MP says he has no comment on PPRP conflicts and does not see the House Dissolution  early next year after the charter rejig is completed.
  • Deputy Interior Minister from Democrat Party says he wishes the PPRP o be able to unite and work for the people in the economic and pandemic crisis. He said regardless of the reshuffle or the dissolution, the Democrat is ready for any change.
  • The main opposition Pheu Thai secretary-general said that he sees no chance of the coalition to be in power until the end of the term as PPRP conflicts have been to deep to restore. He sees the House dissolution to happen  when the PM must place the Communicable Disease Control Decree and Economic Stimulus Decree to the House and fail due to internal conflicts.
  • A party-listed MP from Move Forward Party said he sees no way out from this PM-DPM Prawit clash due to General Prayut personality. The next best available option is to reshuffle the cabinet.
• Nida Poll has released its 3^rd quarter political popularity of PM candidate and political parties having the following findings:
  • The director of the poll said that it is too early to tell whether the popularity of the rising opposition figure Pita is due to his performance in the censure debate. The poll conductor said that people in the age of 18 to 35 years old has shifted their support towards Pita (from less than 10% in the last studies to be more than 20 percent in the latest poll). The other significant supporters of Pita are amongst the university students, single voters, and people working in private sectors. On the PPRP front, the head of Nida Poll said that almost 80 percent of PPRP voters are General Prayut voters too.

Preferred PM candidate	Q3 2021	Q2 2021	Q1 2021
Can’t see anyone who is appropriate	32.61	37.65	30.1
General Prayut-PM	17.54	19.32	28.79
Sudarat Keyuraphan- Sarng Thai Party	11.15	13.64	12.09
Pita Limchareonrat- Move Forward Party	11.05	5.45	6.26
Pol Gen Sereepisuth Temeeyaves- Seri Ruamthai Party	9.07	8.71	8.72
Korn Chatikavanij- Kla Party	2.33	3.62	2.7
No interest	7.48	2.15	3.25

Preferred Political Parties	Q3 2021	Q2 2021	Q1 2021
Do not support any party	30.82	32.68	29.82
Pheu Thai (Opp)	22.50	19.48	22.13
Move Forward (Opp)	15.11	14.51	13.48
Palang Pracharat (Ruling)	9.51	10.7	16.65
Democrat (Ruling)	7.78	9.54	7.1
No interest	4.86	0.68	0.63
Seri Ruam Thai	2.68	2.9	3.81

• Krungthep Turakij made a CEO survey asking opinions from top 150 CEOs in various industries on ‘Thai political stability towards business confidence’. The survey showed that a majority of the CEOs suggested the cabinet reshuffle and constitutional amendment, particularly the scrap of 250 Senators and then House Dissolution as the way to dissolve the political conflicts. Here are the findings:
  • On the impacts of political stability towards business confidence: 52% says highly impactful, 39.2% says less impact, 8.1% sees no impact.
  • Secured political stability has effects on economic recovery: 65.1% says certainly, 32.9% says not always, 2.7% says unsure.
  • Confidence that Thailand has political stability: 82.4% says no confidence, 17.6% says highly confidence.
  • What should the government do to solve political instability: 39.6% says House Dissolution and new election, 38.3% says cabinet reshuffle, 24.2% suggests the government to remain in power until the end of the term, 11.4% go for the PM resignation.
  • Which parts of cabinet should be reshuffle most: 44.3% says the entire cabinet, 38.3% go for economic ministers, 30.4% says Public Health portfolios and 10.4% wants to see security-related ministers gone.
  • On whether Thailand is ready to reopen the country for tourists: 50.3% says not ready, 45.6% says ready.
• On 24 September, Sudarat Keyuraphan, the president of freshly-established Sarng Thai Party met with Republican Senator Mitt Romney and has asked for the American senator cooperation in supplying mRNA vaccines to Thailand.—Prachachat Turakij

Analysis/ opinion

• Paisal Puechmongkol, former Vice Minister attached to Deputy PM General Prawit, made a rare interview saying that in contrast to what many may believe that the NCPO hand-picked Senators are working in unity, there are at least three groups within them, judging from their votes for the Constitutional amendment. The vocal political commentator unveiled that at first there has been an ‘instruction’ to scrap the charter rejig motion, but the instruction changed right after the PM kicked PPRP secretary-general Thammanat out of the cabinet.  The conservative political figure said there must be a distinction between the defender of the monarchy and the defender of the government and that not all royalist will defend the action of this government.—Thai Rath
• Matichon interviewed  the head of Thai National Shippers’ Council, deputy head of Federation of Thai Industries and senior academic on political economy on AUKUS and the Chinese intention to be part of the CPTPP.
  • Dr Chaichan Chareonsuk from TNSV said that the Chinese participation is good for Thai export. He has asked the government to be cautious of the other side effects of joining the trade pact, particularly in the agriculture and public health side.
  • Kriengkrai Thiennukul, vice chairman of FTI said he sees AUKUS as a sign of competition between the US-led coalition and Chines-Russia pact. Beijing might not be able to get into CPTPP in the end because it need others’ supports.
  • Associate Professor Dr Somchai Pakapaswiwat said the US-Chinese rivalry has impact on ASEAN and Thailand politically and economically. The professor called for the immediate joining of CPTPP as the Kingdom might face trade barriers for not being part of the high-quality trade pact.–Matichon

Headlines summary as of 23 September 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
13,256 (478 from prisons); (excluding ATK 3,088)	1,524,613 (last seven days: 90,376)	3,422/ 747	1,380,362 (+13,829)	1,495,750	29,741,899  (+ 240,789) BKK: 7,931,546 (+9,463)	623,637 (+ 889) BKK: 204,282 (+ 2,245)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	Average positive rate in the last seven days
12,763 [10,620 (get tested in hospital) + 2,143 (active case finding)]	15 (in SQ)	128,367 [86,778 in field hospital]	353,734 (+2,456)	15,884 (+131) (last seven days: 931)	46,669,535  (+ 646,519) BKK: 11,631,064 (+ 47,554)	16,303,999 (+ 404,841) BKK: 3,495,236 (+35,846)	14.48%

• The Royal Gazette published the PM order restructuring the Operation Centre of the CCSA-adding in Deputy Public Health Permanent secretary, Deputy chief of the National Security Council and the Deputy PM secretary as deputy chiefs of the Operation Centre.—Matichon
• After the meeting of the National Communicable Disease Committee, the committee had a resolution to reduce the quarantine day. The proposal will be submitted to the CCSA for approval. The head of the Disease Control Department outlined three schemes for the quarantine:
  • 7 Days for fully vaccinated visitor who has got RT-PCR test as negative before boarding. There will be two more tests on Day 0 and Day7 of the quarantine.
  • 10 Days for not fully vaccinated tourists and must take two RT-PCR tests on Day 0 and Day 10 of the quarantine-exclusive to air travel.
  • 14 Days for not fully vaccinated visitors arriving the Kingdom by land. The visitors must get thorough two RT-PCR tests.—Nation TV

Politics

• The main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) is set to hold its monthly MPs meeting on 23 September to discuss on their stance in upcoming sub-district elections.—Inside Thailand
• The muscle flexing between the PM and Deputy PM Prawit on 22 September when the two juggernauts went to conduct flood-prevention site visits was a big win for the Deputy PM. DPM Prawit group saw more than 50 MPs joining the group; meanwhile, the PM group saw less than 10 MPs joining his entourage.—Matichon
• Yesterday, the PPRP secretary-general who was kicked out of the cabinet by the PM gave a press interview whether the party will still nominate General Prayut as the party PM candidate in the next election. The main figure of the PPRP said that he can’t discuss that now, it is the party leader decision.—Thai Rath
• The de facto leader of the freshly established Sarng Thai Party and former Pheu Thai Chief Strategist Sudarat Keyuraphan met with Thai-American Democrat Senator asking for more mRNA vaccines to be used in the Kingdom. The Senator who has been pushing for the donation of Pfizer vaccines to Thailand said that Washington has shipped 1.5 million doses of the 2.5 million dose pledge and awaiting Thai government acceptance letter for the remaining 1 million doses. Ladda, the Senator, is calling for Thai participation into COVAX scheme.—Prachachat Turakij
• The Deputy PM and Public Health Minister dismissed the reports that Thailand has not submitted the acceptance letter as no true. The top Health official said that Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not got a collaboration from American envoy about additional donation.—Royal Thai Government
• There are several decisive big days for the political actors:
• The Constitutional Court is going to read its verdict on the status of Deputy head of the PPRP Paiboon Nithitawan on 20 October. The party-listed MP dissolved his old political party and join the main ruling party earlier.—Prachachat Turakij
• On 10 November, the Constitutional Court is going to read its verdict whether the student-led protest leaders, including Anon Nampa, Panusaya ‘Rung’ and Parit ‘Penguin’ are guilty of overthrowing the Constitutional Monarchy regime on their speech on 10 August 2020.—Prachachat Turakij
• A source in the main ruling PPRP said that the appoinemtn of General Wit as the chief strategist of the party has two immediate effects: to quell all tensions among the intra-party fractions and to gear up for the upcoming election. The source said that the new chief strategist will have a multi-generational Taskforce to conduct a ‘minor change’ on the party for the upcoming election.—Prachachat Turakij
• The Computer Crime Suppression Unit has summoned ‘And Ang’ 17-year-old political activist and niece of a opposition leader and former Future Forward leader Thanathorn to listen to the royal defamation charge royalist groups are pressing on her.—Daily News

Australia

• Ambassador attendance of the delivery of survival bags to sex workers and disadvantaged groups in Old Town Bangkok was featured on media.—Krungthep Turakij, Naew Na, Nation Thailand

Headlines summary as of 22 September 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
11,252 (28 from prisons); (excluding ATK 2,062)	1,511,357 (last seven days: 91,107)	3,464/ 753	1,366,533 (+13,695)	1,482,494	29,501,110 (+300,033) BKK: 7,897,795 (+6,777)	622,748 (+795) BKK: 200,997 (+ 515)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	Average positive rate in the last seven days
11,207 [9,816 (get tested in hospital) + 1,391 (active case finding)]	17 (in SQ)	129,071 [87,983 in field hospital]	351,278 (+2,767)	15,753 (+141) (last seven days: 988)	46,023,016 (+811,915) BKK: 11,493,408 (+28,451)	15,899,158 (+511,087) BKK: 3,394,616 (+21,159)	14.61%

• The reopening scheme in 5 touristic areas will likely be deferred to 1 November. The Tourism Authority of Thailand is set to propose the reopening scheme of tourist provinces to the Operation Centre of the CCSA today (22 September) and said that the reopening date could start on 1 November as Bangkok, Pattaya and Cha-am might not be able to secure 70 percent of vaccination rate. —Than Settakij
• After the cabinet has approved draft decree to amend the Communicable Disease Act and added a section on the management of public health emergencies which in the future will not have to enact the Emergency Decree, the deputy government spokesperson said however that the government does not eye to dismantle the CCSA and has not thought of revoking the Emergency Decree.—Thai Rath
• A public health official gave an interview on condition of anonymity clarifying the reason the Kingdom has been purchasing Sinovac vaccine despite its doubtful effectiveness in curbing the Delta variant that it had one major advantage over the other vaccines, it was available in large quantities. The official said when the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were not available and the AZ plants were not operational, Sinovac was the only option left.—Thai Enquirer
• Their majesties the King and Queen will visit Siriraj Hospital on 24 September to commemorate Mahidol Memorial Day (the day Prince Mahidol Adulyadej-The King’s grandfather passed away).—Naew Na

Politics

• A media cited a source in the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) said that the party secretary-general has secured 40 MPs to join the Deputy PM and PPRP leader to conduct the site visits in Ayutthaya; meanwhile, the Labour Minister Suchart Chomklin has secured 12 MPs to join the PM for a site visit in Petchburi. And the other development is on 23 September when the PPRP leader and the chief strategist will hold a meeting at the Parliament on the party stance on sub-district representative election.—Krungthep Turakij, Matichon
  • Suchart who is reportedly sided with the PM during the last censure debate shenanigan said that it was normal process
  • Deputy PM Prawit denied the reports that he is in conflict with the PM.—Thai Rath
• The Deputy PM and government legal pundit Wissau said in the cabinet meeting yesterday that the government must resign should the freshly introduced Communicable Disease Decree does not have the Parliament approval in November when the Parliament session begins. The government legal pundit said that there is no clear timeline of when the decree will be on Royal Gazette as when it is on, there is no more necessity to enforce Emergency Decree.—Krungthep Turakij
• The ruling Democrat Party spokesperson denied the reports that Democrat Party is discussing on the House Dissolution and that its ministers and MPs site visit do not mean they are gearing up for the upcoming election. The spokesperson said that the frequent visits are occurring because the House is not in session.—Krungthep Turakij
• Cross Cultural Foundation has submitted an open letter to the PM opposing the transfer of a Malaysian transexual from Thai police to Malaysian authority as the person might face torture. Nur Sajat has been granted refugee status and is in the process to leave for Australia.—Khao Sod

Analysis/ opinion

• Krungthep Turakij outlined 8 future important moments which could determine the future of the coalition:
  • 1. The Constitutional Amendment which is expected to be finalised in the next four months, if there is no obstacle;
  • 2. The rivalry between the PM and Deputy PM to dominate the PPRP which could result in cabinet reshuffle and change in coalition;
  • 3. The censure debate without a vote by the Opposition which could undermine the confidence in the government;
  • 4. The emergency approval of raising the debt ceiling to be that of 70% of GDP mean the PM might want to use the extra-money to gain support before making any political decision;
  • 5. The Opposition can file a vote of no confidence again in 2022 (Parliament session: 22 May to  18 September);
  • 6. The 2023 budget bill which if not pass, could force the PM to resign or dissolve the House;
  • 7. The protracted pandemic situation;
  • 8. Should the PM want to cling to power until the House term ends in 2023, there will be more and more tensions within and without the coalition.—Krungthep Turakij
• Assistant Professor Dr.Viboonpong Poonprasit, specialist on American politics, gave a brief interview on the ThaiPBS that Washington is seeing Beijing as the main threat to its national interest, unlike the lesser threat from Russia from the European front. The expert said that from Washington perspective, the EU is not that trustworthy compared to the UK and Australia.–ThaiPBS

Economic:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Cabinet’s Decisions, 21 September 2021

• Greenlighted the implementation of the third phase of the domestic tourism schemes Rao Tiew Duay Gun as well as the Tour Tiew Thai to run until 28 February 2022.  Registration platforms are being finalized for the tour companies that wish to participate in the Rao Tiew Duay Gun campaign.  Hotels wishing to register Rao Tiew Duay Gun campaign can do so from 24 September – 1 October, with the campaign officially kicking off in October.  Source:  Prachachart Turakij
• Approved of allocating 27 billion Baht of budget to continue providing partial subsidies on electricity and water bills, traveling cost, purchases of consumer goods and 1,000 Baht welfare for the disabled from October 2021 to September 2022.  The budget also goes to renewing the state welfare card program to help low-income earners.  Source:  Prachachart Turakij
• Approved of reducing the contributions of employers and employees to Social Security Fund under Section 33 and Section 39 for 3 months, effective from 1 September – 30 November 2021.  Contributions from employers are reduced to 2.5 percent of the employees’ monthly salary, while contributions of the self- insured under Section 39 are slashed to 235 Baht from 432 Baht.  Source:  Prachachart Turakij

Others

• Bank of Thailand expresses support for the government’s decision to raise public debt ceiling to 70 percent of GDP.  BOT notes that this will give the government the fiscal space to borrow more to stimulate the economy if needed, but does not translate into the government borrowing to reach the ceiling limit.  Moreover, with the government already planning to borrow 500 billion Baht to spur the economy throughout next year, Thailand’s debt ratio is already anticipated to breach 60 percent in 2022.  Source:  Thansettakij  Bangkok Post
• The reopening plan for five provinces might be delayed by a month to Nov 1 as each province’s vaccination rate still falls short of 70 percent coverage, leading Chiang Mai to rely on the domestic market instead.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Thailand has set an ambitious goal of jumping into the top 30 in the Global Innovation Index (GII) by 2030, while the country climbed one place to 43rd in the 2021 index recently released by the World Intellectual Property Organisation.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 21 September 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
10,919 (422 from prisons); (excluding ATK 6,593)	1,500,105 (last seven days: 93,563)	3,548/ 759	1,352,838 (+11,694)	1,471,242	29,201,077 (+198,505) BKK: 7,877,488 (+8,498)	621,953 (+491) BKK: 199,305 (+ 746)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	Average positive rate in the last seven days
10,490 [9,846 (get tested in hospital) + 644 (active case finding)]	7 (in SQ)	131,655 [89,747 in field hospital]	348,823 (+2,561)	15,612 (+143) (last seven days: 991)	45,211,101 (+469,052) BKK: 11,369,299 (+32,300)	15,388,071 (+270,056) BKK: 3,319,506 (+23,056)	14.60%

• The Bangkok Governor has outlined three conditions to reopen the capital to international tourists. He said that once the three conditions are realized, then he will discuss with the Public Health and Tourism Ministries on the reopening guidelines and will bring this up with the CCSA for approval.
  • 1. More than 70 percent of Bangkok residents must be fully vaccinated. It is expected to be on 22 October and it needs to wait for 7 to 14 days to let the vaccine to boost the immunity;
  • 2. The daily infection rate must be less than current rate (2,700 to 2,800);
  • 3. The hospitalised rate is less than the current situation.—Krungthep Turakij
• The cabinet has approved the Communicable Disease Decree granting amnesty to medical health practitioners but not include the policy makers.—Prachachat Turakij

Politics

• The Royal Gazette published the 2022 Budget Bill effective from 1 October 2021. The bill unanimously passed the Senate on 30 August after the House passed it on 21 August.–Krungthep Turakij
• Political observers and media headlines are eyeing for the potential flexing of political muscle of the PM and Deputy PM Prawit as the two are visiting different sites to look after the floods in Petchaburi and Ayutthaya respectively on Wednesday 22 September. As the site visits are happening at the same time, it is anticipated whose site visit will have more MPs and local politicians attending.—Inside Thailand,  
  • Media is citing a source in the main ruling PPRP that two main figures in the party Suchart Chomklin-the Labour Minister and Thammanat Prompao-PPRP secretary-general are manoeuvring to have the MPs and local politicians to attend the site visit of the PM and the Deputy PM consecutively. It is also reported that local MPs are finding hard time, having to choose between the two juggernauts.—Krungthep Turakij
  • Meanwhile, the government spokesperson denied the reports on clashes between the two, saying it is a division of labour.—Prachachat Turakij
  • Vocal opposition Move Forward MP Rangsiman ‘Rome’ gave an interview saying that he believed the PM is trying to consolidate power and will drive Deputy PM Prawit out of the political stage. He is hoping the conflict will not affect the people much.–Matichon
  • Former Red Shirt leader analysed the clashes and said that there is a saying that the PM will take the PPRP Chief Strategist, but Deputy PM Prawit pre-empted by appointing General Wit. And the PM countered by taking more site-visit trips and make himself closer to the PPRP MPs.–Matichon
• Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Pramudwinai gave an exclusive interview to Matichon recalling his memory as part of the envoy to establish Sino-Thai relations and former Thai Ambassador to China. In response to question on major power rivalry, the Thai top diplomat said as a small nation, Thailand needs to be friends with all major powers. He wishes to see the US and China to join hands tackling global issues. The veteran is calling for major power’s leaders to combine the soft and hard powers at play for co-existence.–Matichon

ASEAN/World

• French Ambassador to Thailand has placed his Op-d saying he deeply regrets the AUKUS and Australian decision to scrap the submarine deal with France.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic:

CPTPP

• Ministry of Commerce said Thailand needs to re-evaluate the impact of the CPTPP after China formally applied to join the trade bloc on Sept 16.  Source: Bangkok Post
• The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) supports Thailand to join the CPTPP to expand its export markets and boost the economy.  JSCCIB noted Vietnam has started to benefit from CPTPP membership, with its foreign direct investment continuing to increase over the past few years at a rate 3 times higher than that of Thailand.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Others

• Following the Fiscal Discipline Committee meeting chaired by PM Prayut yesterday, Finance Minister Arkhom confirmed that Thailand will raise its public debt ceiling to 70 percent of GDP in a move to increase fiscal space should it become necessary for the government to borrow more to spur post-COVID-19 economic recovery.  The change will not take effect until it is published in the Royal Gazette, in which the timeframe is not specified.  The raised ceiling will allow the government to pursue next year’s 2.3 trillion Baht borrowing plan to fund budget deficit, COVID-19 relief spending and re-finance existing debt.  Since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, Thailand’s public debt has never exceeded 60 percent of GDP.  Source:  Bangkok Post Bangkok Post Thai Rath
• The World Bank has announced it will discontinue publishing its Ease of Doing Business report following allegations of irregularities discovered in its 2018 and 2020 reports.  Sources:  World Bank press release   Prachachart Turakij
• PM Prayut chaired the third meeting of the National Committee on the Preparation of the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting and Related Meetings on 20 September.  Among the topics of discussion are the APEC logo competition and the communications strategy to publicise the importance of adherence to universal prevention measures to curb the COVID-19 outbreak.  The strategy targets 5 groups including the Thai private sector, SME/start up entrepreneurs, farmers, youth and vulnerable groups.  Source:  Public Relations Department News
• Customs Department is preparing to lower duty on the import of alcoholic beverages and cigars by 50 percent for 5 years in line with the cabinet’s approval of the Long Term Resident visa package, which was conceived to attract foreigners to Thailand.  Customs Department expects that about 30 percent of the products are likely to be covered by the planned cuts and ministerial regulations will be announced after the changes are made.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Finance Ministry (MoF) is planning for additional fiscal injection into the economy in Q4 of 2021 from 3 sources: 1) the 500 billion Baht loan; 2) the 2022 fiscal budget, and 3) the state enterprises’ investment budget due to the prolonged outbreak.  If Thailand is able to achieve the reopening and vaccination targets, MoF expects the number of foreign tourist arrivals this year to reach 300,000; higher than the common forecast of 150,000.
• In its latest revision, Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) forecasts that Thailand’s 2021 GDP will grow by only 0.7 percent and not 0.9 percent.  Thailand’s economy would return to the 2019 pre-pandemic level in the middle, rather than the beginning of 2023.  SCB has further downgraded its foreign tourist arrivals forecast this year from 300,000 to 170,000, but expects tourist arrival number to rise to 6.3 million in 2022.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Factory Sandbox scheme, a collaborative effort between Labour, Public health and Interior ministries has piloted its first phase in 4 provinces, namely Nonthaburi, Pathumthani, Samut Sakhon and Chonburi.  Participating in the scheme are 112 factories and 178,338 workers who are insured under Social Security System.  The scheme aims to protect the manufacturing sector.  Factory owners required to test their workers regularly and will have to cover the costs, while the government will provide COVID-19 vaccination.  The scheme’s second phase will cover Ayutthaya, Chachoengsao and Samut Prakan provinces, with a focus on automotive, electronic parts, food and medical equipment sectors.  Source:  Prachachart Turakij

Headlines summary as of 20 September 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
12,709 (858 from prisons); (excluding ATK 1,723)	1,489,186 (last seven days: 94,430)	3,582/ 773	1,341,144 (+11,125)	1,460,323	29,002,572 (+109,439) BKK: 7,863,347 (+6,741)	621,462 (+225) BKK: 197,982 (+ 277)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	Average positive rate in the last seven days
11,840 [10,962 (get tested in hospital) + 878 (active case finding)]	11 (in SQ)	132,573 [88,607 in field hospital]	346,262 (+2,831)	15,469 (+106) (last seven days: 984)	44,742,049 (+256,362) BKK: 11,338,733 (+19,400)	15,118,015 (+146,698) BKK: 3,277,404 (+12,382)	15.24%

Politics

• The protest to commemorate the 15^th year anniversary of the 2006 coup ended with some injured:
  • The car mob led by former Red-Shirt leaders Natthawut Saikreau and Sombat Boonngamanong launched the caravan from Asoke intersection and ended at Democracy Monument around 6.00pm.—Thai Rath
  • There were two bomb-like sound heard opposite of Queen Sirikit Convention Centre when the caravan passed by.—Krungthep Turakij
    • Deputy Police Spokesperson said that there were 4 people hurt-two of which are below 18 years old. The police said that apparently the bombs are brought in with protestors and it went off.—Thai Rath
  • Some of the protesters stayed back and clashed with riot control police at Nang Learng Intersection close to the Government House and adjourned around 10.00pm.—Thai Rath
• Media are speculating whether the frequent site visits by the PM in the last week would mean he is gearing up for the upcoming election.
  • Daily News and Thai Post have speculated that elections are coming because of the frequency of tours being undertaken by the PPRP and the other coalition partners.—Inside Thailand
  • The new government spokesperson said that media should not politicise the site visit. The spokesperson has affirmed that the coalition will remain in power to the last day of the Parliament term and that there is no need for the House dissolution.–Matichon
• Nida Poll made a survey on ‘The PM consolidating power’ in expelling two ministers from cabinet. The majority 23.99 percent of the participants said that the PM action has been appropriate; 23.54% said that there is no real conflict within the troika (the PM, Deputy PM Prawit and the Interior Minister Anupong). On question whether the PM should replace Deputy PM Prawit as the main ruling PPRP leader, 56.11% of the people think that the PM should not mess with the PPRP; 21.56 percent think that the PM might not need to be the PPRP leader but must be able to control the party; meanwhile, 16.33% thinks that the PM should replace General Prawit as the PPRP leader. And whether the PM should set up his new political party, more than 66 percent are totally (58.24) or somewhat (7.82) disagrees.—Nida Poll  
• The freshly appointed PPRP chief strategist General Wit Devahastin na Ayudhya gave an interview with armed force reporter Wassana Nanuam. The reporter saw the appointment of Gen Prawit’s closest confidantes, signals that Gen Prawit wanted to keep his distance from the Sam Mitr faction. And on the reported conflicts within the troika (the PM, the Deputy PM and the Interior Minister), the PPRP chief strategist said that they are brothers, and their bond is unbreakable. It is normal to have disagreements over certain issues, but they always patch up their differences.—Bangkok Post
• Former Deputy PM and PDRC leader Suthep Thuagsuban gave an exclusive interview with Thai Rath and said that he cannot see anyone who is as capable as PM Prayut. As long as he has not seen anyone who can lead the country like PM Prayut, he will continue supporting the prime minister. The veteran politician-turned-activist said that he believed the coalition under the last day of the House term.—Thai Rath

Analysis/ opinion

• The proxy war is on between the Prime Minister and the Deputy PM and PPRP leader Prawit. Thai Rath has juxtaposed the Office of The National Anti – Corruption Commission (ONACC) reportedly under DPM Prawit direct control file a case against the PM brother and Interior Minister Anupong as a preamble of and reaction to the clash between the Prayut and Prawit. The Administrative Court order to press ONACC to reveal the information against Prawit notorious borrowed luxurious watches was also seen as a ‘strike back’ by Prayut. The PM has his supremacy only in the cabinet; meanwhile, the Deputy PM has domination over the PPRP and other minute parties which could sting the COVID revitalisation schemes which if not passed due to intra-coalition conflicts, would cause the PM no choice but to resign or dissolve the House.—Thai Rath

Economic:

CPTPP

• Ministry of Commerce (MoC) said China’s application for CPTPP access will expand the trade pact’s market access, however, it will still be smaller than that of RCEP, which remains the world’s largest FTA.  If China succeeds in joining CPTPP, the trade pact’s economic value will grow to 23.5 trillion USD (30 percent of world GDP) from 10.5 trillion USD, while RCEP’s economic value is 28.5 trillion Baht (36 percent of world GDP).  Commerce Ministry noted that Foreign Affairs Ministry’s International Economic Policy Committee is still considering if Thailand will join the negotiation to accede to the CPTPP.  Their consideration will take into account the China’s as well as the UK’s moves to join CPTPP, such as the benefits offered by larger regional supply chain as well as expanded market access and preferential tariffs.  Source:  Poojadkarn Online  Ban Muang
• The Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) noted that China’s interest in joining CPTPP will have no immediate effects on Thailand’s trade and investment trends since it could take years for accession process to be finalised.  TCC prompts Thailand to join CPTPP negotiation, noting that it is not a commitment but only a negotiation to join the trade pact.  By acceding to CPTPP, Thailand is protecting itself from losing out to other countries that are seem to have a growing interest to accede to CPTPP.  Joining trade pacts will also allow Thailand to benefit from a variety of preferential tariffs and rules of origins when sourcing its raw materials and re-exporting it products.  Source:  Thansettakij

Others

• PM Prayut is chairing a Fiscal Discipline Committee meeting today to deliberate on whether or not to raise Thailand’s debt ceiling from 60 percent to 70 percent of GDP.  Raising the debt ceiling would allow Thailand to borrow an additional 2 trillion Baht to spur the economy past COVID-19.  Chaired by PM Prayut, the committee is authorised to revise the ceiling every 3 years, including this year. The committee comprises representatives from Finance Ministry, Bank of Thailand, the National Economic and Social Development Council and the Budget Bureau.  As of July 2021, Thailand’s public debt is 56 percent of GDP.  Sources:  Thansettakij   Bangkok Post
• The Thai government is upbeat about trade prospects with China after it signed a mini-FTA with China’s Hainan province in late August this year. Commerce Minister is keen to sign mini-FTAs with other provinces in China such as Gansu in the north, which is majority Muslim, making it a good match for Thai halal products.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Thailand is prepared to enter an era of fully digital banking services due to the country’s favourable ecosystem, according to the Bank of Thailand.  Thailand has consumers, banks, regulators and infrastructure that are ready to enter the paradigm shift.   However, businesses need to be swift in endorsing infrastructure modernization, digital financial literacy must be promoted among Thais and data privacy protected.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Despite the pandemic, the Merger & Acquisition trend appears to be flourishing particularly in the energy sector, telecomm and hospitality sectors.  Larger conglomerates from abroad are buying smaller firms and local companies are also investing abroad.  The private sector urges the government to capitlise on this opportunity to attract foreign direct investment and for Thailand to focus on regional partnership.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 17 September 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
14,555 (790 from prisons); (excluding ATK 1,630)	1,448,792 (last seven days: 95,839)	3,851/ 787	1,304,247 (+13,691)	1,419,929	28,436,015  (+ 350,813) BKK: 7,803,484 (+16,225)	620,093 (+ 965) BKK: 193,973 (+ 1,456)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	Average positive rate in the last seven days
13,756 [12,600 (get tested in hospital) + 1,156 (active case finding)]	9 (in SQ)	129,421 [84,982 in field hospital]	337,708(+2,911)	15,124 (+171) (last seven days: 1,204)	43,342,103  (+ 864,589) BKK: 11,149,030 (+ 78,949)	14,285,995 (+ 512,811) BKK: 3,151,573 (+61,268)	15.82%

• The prospect of reopening Bangkok to tourists under Bangkok Sandbox is under questions:

• The Tourism Authority of Thailand said that following the PM pledge to reopen the country to tourism within 120 days, there will be 25 provinces, including Chiang Mai, Pattaya, Petchburi, and Bangkok to be on the scheme. The TAT will discuss with the economic wing of the CCSA to consider reducing the RT-PCR tests for vaccinated tourists to only one time. The reopening plan will need to be authorised only by the Governor.—Matichon

• Against what the Tourism Minister said yesterday after having a discussion with the Bangkok Governor on ‘Bangkok Sandbox’, the Governor said however that he has not said a word about reopening Bangkok to vaccinated tourists in October. The Bangkok Governor said that there is no fixed date on reopening of the capital city and stressed that Bangkok residents must have more than 70 percent inoculation rate first, before holding a discussion on the Sandbox scheme.—ThaiPBS

• The dean of prestigious Siriraj Medical School and advisor to the CCSA voiced his opinion against the Sandbox. Dr Prasith said that he call for the delay of reopening for one more month and has voiced grave concerns against the no-quarantine measures.—Channel 7

• The Tourism Minister discussed with the Bangkok Governor and has agreed that reopening to fully vaccinated and COVID-negative visitors from abroad, scheduled for October 15. The Bangkok Governor has indicated that Bangkok wants their city population rate at 70 percent first.—ThaiPBS World

• The Minister gave an interview this morning saying that he will consult with the CCSA and Public Health to ease alcoholic beverage when dine-in to attract more tourists.—Inside Thailand

• The Public Health permanent-secretary has vowed to inoculate 1 million doses on 24 September, Mahidol Day-the day the grand father of the King passed away. The top doctor said that the effort will be conducted for the royal merit making.—Public Health Ministry

Politics

• A senior source who has asked to remain anonymous said that from September 20 to 29, Thailand’s Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai is to visit Washington and will attend the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) and ASEAN related meetings in New York. ASEAN has agreed to hold an informal ministerial meeting, on the side lines of the UNGA, which will also touch on the collective ASEAN efforts to combat the coronavirus, as well as the situation in Myanmar. —ThaiPBSWorld

• Sunday marks the 15th anniversary of the coup to oust former PM Thaksin while he was in UNGA meeting in New York. The ‘Car Mob’ led by former redshirt leaders Natthawut and Somsak is planning to kick off from 2.00pm at Asoke Intersection until the Democracy Monument.—all media outlet

• Anwar Salaeh, the Democrat party’s MP from Pattani, who has been vocal against the PM despite being part of the coalition, has come out to warn the military not to undertake any kind of mischief as rumours are starting to fly once again that the military could undertake a coup amid all the chaos in the country.—Thai Rath

• The freshly appointed main-ruling Palang Pracharat Party’s Chief Strategist gave an interview affirming that he is taking the position just to assist General Prawit, the PPRP leader and stressed that he has no intention of taking control over the party against the secretary-general. The new chief strategist is drafting a new strategy to make sure the MPs in the party are unified and ready for the next election.—Thai Rath

• Analysis/ opinionInternational Strategy expert Professor Surachat Bumrungsuk from Chulalongkorn University said that AUKUS is the reaction from the fall of Kabul to Al Qaeda as China has made it very clear that it is willing to fill in once the American retreated when the Chinese Foreign Minister met with the Islamic leader before the fall. According to Surachat, Asia, including Southeast Asia will be the area of contests amongst major powers and the 21st century Cold War will have its epicentre in Asia. The international strategy expert warned the Thai government to remain independence in siding with either side and stressed that there is no ‘saint’ major power. He also said that to stand firm, Thailand must step up its international relevance as it seems the American Vice Presidential visits to Southeast Asia skipped the Kingdom.—BBC Thai

Economic

• Ministry of Commerce had granted 24 foreigners permission to operate businesses in Thailand through the Foreign Business Act in August 2021, mostly from Singapore, the Netherlands and Poland.  They bring in a total of 908 million Baht and created 636 employment for Thais, as well as transferred knowledge in specialised fields such as battery foe Electric Vehicles and communications devices in drones.  From January – August 2021, the Foreign Business Board had granted 132 foreigners the permission to operate businesses in Thailand, bringing in investments worth 9.3 billion Baht.  Source: Naew Na

• Ministry of Tourism speeds up coordination with various agencies to reopen Bangkok through the Bangkok Sandbox scheme on 15 October.  Modelled after the Phuket sandbox, tourists will not be subjected to quarantine requirements.  MoST will propose its plans to CESA on 24 September, which includes inoculating 70 percent of the Bangkok residents and 100 percent of those operating in the service sector, for example those in the restaurant and logistic sectors.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij newspaper, 17 September

• Federation of Thai SME has voiced support of the government’s plan to reopen the tourism industry in October due to the need to restore the economy.  However, it also cautions against the adverse effects another outbreak could wreak on SMEs.  To this end, the Federation is asking the government to help SMEs by suspending their debt payment for 6 months and set up funds to help SMEs that cannot access soft loans.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Thai Hotels Association hopes the reopening of Bangkok in October and domestic stimulus campaigns will boost hotel occupancy rate from single digit to 15-20 percent during the high season in the last 3 months of 2021.  Hotel operators are calling the government to start domestic subsidy campaigns We Travel Together and Tour Teaw Thai to start earlier than 15 October.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• NESDC advises the government to speed up the development of infrastructure for science, technology and digital as well as promote private investment in R&D next year to enhance Thailand’s competitiveness.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Finance Minister Arkhom instructed the Bank of Thailand and Fiscal Policy office to relax some of the criteria for state banks to lend to domestic airlines in a bid to improve liquidity in the aviation industry.  Finance Ministry has assigned the Export-Import Bank as the main bank to provide liquidity to the aviation industry.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• The National Cyber Security Agency is gearing up to develop the cybersecurity skills of personnel working in 7 sectors of critical information infrastructure through intensive capacity building program.    The first phase fo the program targets 2,250 trainees and almost 1,000 specialists and executives in related courses by 2022.  Source:  Bangkok Post