Headlines summary as of 21 June 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
3,058 (459  from prisons)	210,782 [Past seven days: 20,954]	1,360/ 378	176,410	181,919	5,252,531 (+137,776) AZ: 83,771 SN: 54,005 7.73% of the population
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,580 [2,044 (get tested in hospital) + 536 (active case finding)]	19 (in SQ)	32,795[25,102 in field hospital]	57,688 (+867)	1,577 (+22) [Past seven days: 175]	7,219,668 (+215,885) 10.58% of the population	1,967,137  (+78,109) AZ: 3,091 SN: 75,018 2.85% of the population

• The CCSA has made a new ease-up of lockdown restrictions starting from this Monday. Important points are:
  • The division of areas into four zones: Highest and strict, Strict, Controlled and Surveillance areas.
  • In highest and strict controlled area, including Bangkok, the CCSA allowed the dine-in to be until 11pm and no event with more than 50 attendees.
  • In all areas, the alcoholic beverages are not allowed when dine-in.
  • Entertainment complexes (pubs, clubs, karaoke bars) are not allowed nationwide.

2. In the vaccination schemes, the CCSA made the following resolutions:
   1. The CCSA aims to administer 10 millions doses of vaccines in July, at least half of it will be to Bangkok.
   2. Phuket will get at least 70 percent of their population inoculated in July.
   3. The vaccine procurement will be extended from 100 million in 2021 to 150 million doses in 2022. The government will procure 50 million more doses from SinoVac (28 millions) and other vaccines (22 millions)

• It seems that each cabinet minister has their own way of counting days to reopen the Kingdom to international tourists:
  • In his national address on 16 June, the PM pledged to reopen the economy for tourist sector in 120 days from today or on 13 October 2021.
  • Deputy PM and Energy Minister Suphattanapongse said that the 120 days timeframe should not start from 16 June, but be counted from 1 July, the day the flagship Phuket Sandbox is scheduled to begin. The economic tzar of the government said that Phuket will be the first door to reopen the economy.—Manager Online
• In contrast to earlier reports that the PM is scheduled to visit Phuket to make sure the Sandbox scheme is going as planned, this morning Deputy PM and Energy Minister Suphattanapongse said that the PM will go to Phuket on 1 July but will send a working team to speculate the progress on 25 June.—Prachachat Turakij

Politics

• It is official now that Deputy Agriculture Minister Thammanat has been nominated as the Secretary-general of the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP).
  • In the morning, Deputy PM and PPRP leader General Prawit resigned from the head of PPRP, simultaneously making all the party executives, including the competing secretary-general position, nullified. General Prawit is later nominated as the sole candidate for the party leader and endorsed.
  • Former Secretary-general Anucha withdrew his candidacy, despite having an MP nominating him to return to the position. Anucha who is concurrently the PM Office Minister, said he has been serving for a year, it is time for other younger candidates to take the position.—Krungthep Turakij
  • The new party executives consist of 26 members and four deputy leaders: Santi—the Deputy Finance Minister, Wirat—the government whip, Suriya—the Industry Minister and Paiboon—the party-list MP.—Krungthep Turakij
• Deputy PPRP leader said even in the next election, they will ask the General Prayut to be on the party PM list, to quell off any allegation that the PM is clinging onto power.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic

• TDRI proclaimed that PM Prayut’s plan to open Thailand in 120 days is an ‘aspirational goal’ made on the best-case scenario basis.  If achieved, the plan could generate 450 – 450 billion Baht for the economy.  However, TDRI forecasted that Thailand will not achieve herd immunity in 4 months because only 60 percent of the Thai population will be fully inoculated by then.  This could lead Thailand down the paths of England and Chile, which had to both to re-impose fresh lockdowns soon after opening up due to new outbreaks.  In the worst-case scenario, Thailand could see an infection of 7,000 cases per day, in part because it has yet to control the current outbreak.  Thailand might need to intermittently go into full lockdowns, which would drive away tourists and investors.TDRI asked the government to take into account these risks in its reopening plan.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij
• The private sector heralds PM Prayut’s plan to open up Thailand in 120 days.  The Federation of Thai Industries enthused the opening in October will be in time for peak tourism season in Nov and Dec, while Thai Chamber of Commerce noted the Phuket sandbox launch in July will build up the confidence of international communities in Thailand.  Hospitality company Minor International praised the PM for making a practical decision.  WHA Group asked the government to open up the country in 90 days as many foreign investors are keen to invest in industrial estates in Thailand.   Source:  Krungthep TurakijBangkok PostManager Online
• Ministry of Finance said Thailand’s opening in 120 days will propel the Thai economy to grow by 2.3 percent this year.  If Thailand could fully reopen within this year, it could receive 2 million foreign tourists.  Research house Kiatnakin Phatra Research (KKP Research) cautioned against this optimism, emphasising that Thailand has been slow in its vaccination rollout and might fail to reopen in time.  To this end, KKP Research has slashed Thailand’s GDP growth this year to 1.5 percent from 2.2 percent.  Similarly, TMB-Thanachart Bank said Thailand should only open up in October if the government succeeds in vaccinating 50 percent of the population with the first vaccine dose by mid-October; equivalent to vaccinating 400,000 doses per day for the next 4 months.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The resort island of Krabi said the plan to reopen Thailand in 120 days is promising, but operators need practical details and clear directions to prepare their businesses in advance.  Hoteliers on the island are banking on the Phuket sandbox model to jumpstart international travels to Thailand in time for the high season.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Others

• Commerce Ministry recently conducted an online brainstorming session with business entrepreneurs to evaluate if Thailand should pursue a bilateral FTA with Hong Kong.The session assessed if the FTA would offer added benefits should Hong Kong become an RCEP member in the future and if the benefits would exceed those offered by the existing ASEAN-Hong Kong FTA (AHKFTA). Results showed that the bilateral would not offer further benefits to Thailand in terms of market access.  In terms of trade in services, the FTA could attract Hong Kong investors to invest in real-estate, e-commerce, finance, insurance and logistics.  Instead, Thailand is urged to maximise the benefits of AHKFTA and use Hong Kong as a gateway to access China through the Greater Bay Area cooperation between China-Hong Kong-Macau.  The entrepreneurs also proposed that Thai and Hong Kong chambers of commerce establish a Joint Trade Committee to regularly upgrade the trade pact.  Source:  Thansettakij, Krungthep Turakij, Bangkok Post
• Thailand rose 1 spot to 28^th ranking in the 2021 World Competitiveness Ranking conducted by the Institute for Management Development, boosted by improvements in employment and public finances.  Issues of concerns include Thailand’s international trade that is part of the economic ranking, and which reported a drop from 5^th in 2020 to 21^st ranking this year.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 10 June 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,310 (102  from prisons)	187,538	1,295/ 359	139,287	158,675	3,966,097(+3,966,097)AZ: 231,428SN: 62,2915.99% of the population
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,170 [1,467 (get tested in hospital) + 703 (active case finding)]	38 (in SQ)	46,876 [28,549 in field hospital]	50,461 (+788)	1,375 (+45)	5,443,743 (+472,128)8.22% of the population	1,477,653 (+42,955)AZ: 5,502SN: 37,4532.23% of the population

Politics

•             The House just casted a vote on the loan decree. The government won with 270 votes against the 196 votes by the Opposition.—all media outlet

•             Yesterday was the first day the House deliberated on the 500 billion THB loan decree aimed at revitalised the economy. There have been various developments:

    The Finance Minister clarified to the House that the former 1 trillion THB loan has almost been depleted. The Minister said that according to IMF, the debt-to-GDP ratio is around 50.69 percent and within the framework allowed.—Krungthep Turakij

    Last evening, the Opposition Move Forward Party requested the PM to attend the House deliberation and threatened to call for a headcount. The PM later attended the House before 6pm.—Krungthep Turakij

    A Move Forward MP questioned the rationale of the budget to ‘revitalise the economy’ with a Royal project ‘Kok Nong Na’ model which poured the four billion THB budget to 157 military barracks.—BBC Thai

•             The coalition is going to file their constitutional amendment proposals within this House session:

    Three minor coalition parties (Bhumjaithai, Democrat and Chatthai Pattana parties) plan to submit their proposals of charter rejig to the House speaker after the government have a discussion on this mid-next week. The highlights of the proposal is to strip the NCPO hand-picked senators of power to join the lower chamber in voting the PM; and to abolish the Mixed-Member Apportionment (MMA) system and return to first-past-the-post and party-list systems.—Inside Thailand

    The main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) is aiming to file its proposal to amend the electoral systems to be that of first-past-the-post and party-list systems. The MP and Deputy head of PPRP said that the party is against the three coalition parties proposal to amend Article 272 (Senate power to join the lower house in voting for the PM).

Analysis/opinion

•   Krungthep Turakij outlined five potential timelines for the House Dissolution which the tenure is until 23 March 2023. The five timelines include:

1.  House Dissolution at late 2021 or around November to December, considering the passage of 2021 budget into coalition parties constituencies;

2.  House Dissolution at early 2022 which the PM and government will encounter the other round of censure debate which would affect the government popularity.

3.  Mid 2022 after the pandemic is completely curbed, having the positive impacts for the government popularity due to the kick-off of the government projects and civil servant reshuffles.

4.  Late 2022 is the ‘golden time’ for the PM and the government to dissolve the Parliament considering all economic engines have resumed to its full powers. Yet, the intra-coalition conflicts might not make the timeline possible.

5.  Early 2023 will fulfil the dream of a government which could be in power in full House term, which only former PM Thaksin had the record.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic:

CPTPP       

• The Thailand Consumer Council continued to voice its objection towards Thailand joining CPTPP.  It reasoned that Commerce Ministry’s previous studies which showed Thailand would benefit from foreign direct investment and economic expansion by acceding to CPTPP are inaccurate.  Rather, it cited a study by the Thai Pharmacy Council in March 2021 that estimated CPTPP could cost Thailand’s pharmaceutical and public health system up to 420 billion Baht in 30 years.  In particular, it would force Thailand to import more pharmaceutical products.  In the process, this would reduce the value of domestically manufactured pharmaceutical industry by 100 billion Baht.  To this end, the TCC is asking the government to slow down its letter of intent to accede to CPTPP.  Sources:  Thansettakij  Thai Post newspaper, 9 June 2021

Tourism

• The Tourism and Sports Ministry (MOST) said the requirement for inoculated foreign tourists to stay in Phuket for 14 days instead of 7 days will reduce inbound arrivals in July by half from its original target of 29,700 visitors.  If there is no infection in the first month of the reopening, the requirement could be reduced to 7 days, which will ensure arrival figures will reach 129,000 during July – September as targeted by MOST.  In July, tourists from the US and British navy personnel are slated to visit the island. 
• MOST said some 5 tourism-related associations are seeking a meeting with DPM Supattanapong and Finance Minister Akhom to ask that 500 billion Baht be allocated from the 1 trillion Baht loan to establish a tourism rehabilitation fund.  The fund would provide loans to tourism operators under special conditions.  Sources:  Bangkok Post   Krungthep Turakij newspaper, 10 June 2021
• Phuket is seeking funds and technical support from the government to develop a mobile application to track tourists visiting the island from July under the Phuket Sandbox tourism reopening scheme.  The app will set up a system to deal with future pandemic outbreaks.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Others

• The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) anticipated that Thailand’s 2021 GDP will grow by 0.5-2 percent and export by 5-7 percent.  Additionally, the Thai Bankers Association (TBA) made 3 proposals to the government

1) speed up the vaccination pace and reopeg the various provinces to international tourists through the sandbox model on time.  If achieved, this will enable to the Thai economy to pick up in Q4 of this year; earlier than its original forecast of Q1 2022. 

2) raise the amount of cash-handout through the upcoming Khon La Krueng scheme from 3,000 Baht to 6,000 Baht per person to bolster domestic consumption in Q2-Q3.  This could generate 1.8 trillion Baht for the Thai economy

3) TBA will work with Bank of Thailand to adjust the conditions of BOT’s asset warehousing scheme to broaden its accessibility to SMEs and rein in NPLs.  Sources:   Naew Na Bangkok Post

• The Federation of Thai Industries has urged factories to adopt stricter measures against COVID-19 outbreak amid growing concern over more factory shutdowns and their impact on exports and supply chains.  To date, some 7,100 workers in 132 factories have been infected in several provinces comprising Chon Buri, Samut Prakan, Pathm Thani, Ayutthaya, Saraburi and Songkhla.  Uncontrolled outbreaks could lead to temporary factory closure, which will affect export.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Commerce Ministry has rolled out an online system for entrepreneurs to apply for permission to move 9 imported agricultural products within the country.  The 9 products are garlic, onion, palm oil, fresh cassava & cassava chips, maize, mature coconut, white coconut & dried coconut meat, paddy rice wheat and barley.  Registration can be done through the website https://transport.dit.go.th/ca Source:  Bangkok Post
• Finance Ministry is studying ways to impose corporate income tax on overseas multinational (MNC) online companies offering services in Thailand.  The move follows the recent agreement of the G7 finance ministers to charge a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15 percent on MNCs.  Starting from 1 September 2021, overseas businesses providing online services in Thailand will be required to register for a 7 percent VAT liability if their annual income exceeds 1.8 million Baht.  Source:  Bangkok Post   Krungthep Turakij
• Bank of Thailand (BOT) proposed 3 options, comprising debt restructuring, debt haircut and limiting new loan creation in a bid to control post-pandemic household debt level.  BOT projected that Thailand’s household debt could rise to 92.8 percent in the next 4 years, but if the situation is brought under control quickly enough, the debt could be curbed to 79 percent of GDP.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 9 June 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,680 (280  from prisons)	185,228	1,286/ 355	136,252	156,365	3,672,372(+428,459)AZ: 293,533SN: 134,9265.54% of the population
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,389 [1,457 (get tested in hospital) + 932 (active case finding)]	11 (in SQ)	47,644 [28,551 in field hospital]	49,673 (+1,096)	1,332 (+35)	5,107,069(+472,128)7.71% of the population	1,434,697 (+43,669)AZ: 5,004SN: 38,6652.16% of the population

•             The ‘Phuket Sandbox’ scheme to reopen the resort island on 1 July did not have a go from cabinet yesterday. The PM said the cabinet acknowledged the scheme in principle and ordered related agencies to amend the plan in details before sending the proposal to CCSA and then to the cabinet for final approval.—Prachachat Turakij

    Meanwhile the government spokesperson affirmed that the ‘Phuket Sandbox’ will be realised on 1 July as planned. The spokesman said CCSA is going to hold a meeting on 18 June to discuss on this scheme and has a resolution before sending to the cabinet for approval.—Prachachat Turakij

•             After the weekly cabinet meeting, the PM outlined the sources of vaccines the Kingdom is going to administer. He affirmed that the 100 million doses target remains the same. Out of the doses, 61 million are Astra Zeneca produced locally by Siam Bioscience, 6 million doses from Sinovac with the plan to procure 8 million more doses, and apparently 25 million from Pfizer and J&J. The rest will be procured from international negotiations.—Prachachat Turakij

Politics

•             It is now ‘not if, but when’ will the PM will dissolve the Parliament after the PM sent the strongest signal on his post-cabinet meeting remark urging the cabinet to expedite the projects they are doing in the remaining one year.—Prachachat Turakij

    Manager reported citing source in the cabinet meeting saying that the PM said ‘let’s unite for now, since the government has a year left before we go separate way.’—Manager

    The Deputy PM, Public Health Minister and ruling Bhumjaithai Party leader said that the power to dissolve the House lies in the PM hands, but the BJT Party has been ready to the new election. BJT leader also dismissed the reports that some Opposition MPs will change their affiliations to BJT.—Matichon

    Likewise, Deputy PM, Commerce Minister and Democrat leader said that the House dissolution is within the PM power, but Democrat is ready for the election. The third largest ruling party has finalised more than 90 percent of their cMP candidates.—Wassana Nanuam

    Meanwhile, sources in the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) said last week the Deputy PM and PPRP leader Prawit alerted the party executives and MPs that the dissolution could be as early as late 2021 and the election will be held in 2022, provided that the infection in the Kingdom is curbed. The sources said that the general instructed the party to get the most MPs in the House and could secure the seat for Prayut to keep on the premiership without the support from the 250 Senators. It is also reported that to prepare for the national election, the PPRP convention in 20 June will see the crowning of Deputy Agriculture Minister Thammanat as the party’s secretary-general.—Wassana Nanuam

    Some PPRP MPs, however, did not all agree to the convention on 20 June. Sources in the PPRP said that some MPs did not even know that there is going to be a convention on the day and that they did not want to have a new secretary-general at this critical moment. They saw this as an attempt by some groups to seize power within the main ruling party.—Krungthep Turakij

•             Last night the The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) made resolutions which have political consequences:

    NACC committee ruled by a unanimous vote of 9-0 to accuse Gen Preecha of making a false assets declaration while he was picked as the member of the National Assembly after his brother PM Prayut staged a coup in 2014. NACC will seek clarification from the PM’s brother.—Prachachat Turakij

    General Preecha said he had clarified the NACC on all issues and ready to defend himself on this.—Krungthep Turakij

    Krungthep Turakij viewed this out-of-the-blue NACC accusation as the PM ‘strategic retreat’ to minutely sacrifice his family to bring back his popularity as an altruistic politician and to boost NACC credibility widely seen as biased for the Deputy PM Prawit.—Krungthep Turakij

    NACC accused 4 government MPs of swiping MP ID cards to vote on other MPs’ behalf during the House’s vote on 2020 budget bill.  The four MPs include three from BJT and an MP from PPRP.—Krungthep Turakij

    The secretary-general of the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) Anucha said he has not been informed about the party’s annual convention scheduled on 20 June. Anucha, who also serves as the Minister to the Prime Minister Office, said he had not heard about the attempt to kick him out of the position. PPRP secretary-general Anucha said he had not discussed this matter with the party leader Deputy PM Prawit.–Matichon

Analysis/opinion

•    Krungthep Turakij regarded that much attention placed on the PPRP annual convention means that the earlier reports that a new party setting up by the Interior Ministry secretary-general as the PPRP supplement is no longer the main plan for the PM. The new political party named ‘Ruam Thai Sarng Chart’  (the PM flagship motto) is expected to gain more votes for the PM, in addition to the PPRP, should the electoral system remains to that of a single ballot. Yet, as there have been attempts by the coalition MPs to push for the two ballot systems (one for constituency MP, the other for party-listed MP) via Constitutional amendments, the prospect of the PPRP to be the largest party in the House and legitimacy to form the government (now PPRP is second to Opposition Pheu Thai) is getting more secured, despite the fear that the two-ballot will equally give Pheu Thai a landslide chance.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic:

Cabinet’s decisions, 8 June 2021

• Approved the plan to reopen 10 provinces of Thailand to international tourists in Q3 and Q4 of this year, starting with the reopening of Phuket through the sandbox scheme on 1 July.  Related agencies will submit detailed reopening plans for the deliberation by CESA and the cabinet in subsequent weeks.  Sources:  Bangkok Post Thai Government press release
• Approved of allocating 2.25 billion Baht from FY2021 central budget reserved for emergency purposes to hire 10,000 new university graduates for 1 year, starting from June 2021.  Some 28 state agencies will hire the graduates for 18,000 Baht per month per person.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• PM Prayut thanked DPM and Commerce Minister Jurin for working with Finance Ministry and 5 state-owned banks and financial institutions to provide soft loans to some 120,000 restaurants nationwide, starting from 7 June.  Source:  Matichon
• At the cabinet’s meeting yesterday, PM Prayut affirmed of the 1 trillion Baht loan, 984 billion Baht was approved for use and 73 percent was disbursed (730 billion Baht).   The remaining sum, 15 billion Baht, is likely to be spent on subsidizing utility bills in a bid to reduce people’s living costs.  Additionally, PM Prayut has instructed the cabinet to speed up the implementation of various projects because the government has only 1 year left in the office.  In the meantime, PM Prayut will push ahead with plans to rehabilitate the economy, boost farmers’ income and reform the education system.   Source: Bangkok Post

Tourism

• Airlines and hotels in Phuket have a lukewarm response towards the Phuket sandbox reopening model on 1 July.  July is a low season for tourism, with arrivals expected to from Europe and the Middle East.  The Thai Hotel Association noted most hotels are taking a wait and see approach since they are unsure if demand is high enough to make it worth the costs of reopening their hotels, with tourism anticipated to fully kick off from October onward.  In July, only 25-30 percent of hotels expected to be in operation.  Similarly, domestic airlines anticipate low demand from July-September and will closely monitor the situation before increasing their flights.  Source:  Prachachat Turakij
• Thai Travel Agents said there is little hope of attracting Chinese travellers to Thailand under the sandbox scheme during the Chinese Golden Week in October if Thailand’s infection rate remains above 2,000 cases per day.  Guangzhou city has also imposed a 21-day quarantine for its returning citizens, meaning the Phuket Sandbox reopening may still fail to lure Chinese to travel overseas.  Nevertheless, Thai Travel Agents opined that it is necessary to test the reopening of Phuket even if it does not produce a fruitful outcome in the early stage.  TTA said the government should establish a 10-billion-Baht fund to provide loans to tour operators, similarly to Village funds.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Representatives from Samui’s tourism sector met with Tourism authority of Thailand and Ministry of Tourism and Sports to reiterate that it is ready to reopen to inoculated tourists on 1 July.  Their request will be considered by CCSA.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Others

• The FTA Fund is helping a dairy cooperative in Lopburi province secure funding for the purchase of cow feed for 5 years, starting since July last year.  Agriculture Ministry also noted that local farmers must enhance their competitiveness in preparation for the influx of Australian and New Zealand dairy products when tariff rate quota and tariff is lifted under their respective FTAs.  Sources:  Manager Online  Naew Na
• PM Prayut appointed DPM Supattanapong, the Finance Ministry and NESDC to study the G7 agreement that will impose a global minimum tax rate of 15 percent on multinationals among G7 countries, especially the tech giants.  The team was instructed to assess its impact on Thailand’s ability to attract foreign investments into Thailand and the EEC zone.  Sources:  Krungthep Turakij  Prachachart Turakij 
• Ministry of Commerce (MoC) is drafting Thailand’s first national trade strategy plan from 2021 – 2025, which will align with the government’s 20-year strategy and the promotion of 12 S-Curve industries.  MoC divulged that the trade strategy will help Thailand cope with the pandemic by focusing on 4 target industries, namely processed agricultural products and food; healthcare and wellness; bio-technology; and digital technology.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 8 June 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,662 (534  from prisons)	182,548	1,281/ 359	131,999	153,685	3,243,913 (+388,872) AZ: 327,723 SN: 61,149 4.901% of the population
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,646 [1,495 (get tested in hospital) + 617 (active case finding)]	16 (in SQ)	49,252 [29,518 in field hospital]	48,577 (+1,098)	1,297 (+28)	4,634,941 (+416,874) 7.003% of the population	1,391,028 (+27,975) AZ: 4,636 SN: 23,339 2.102% of the population

• The director-general of the Department of Medical Science gave a press briefing that the Public Health is monitoring the infection of the so-called Indian-strains very closely as there have found 235 confirmed cases, 209 of which are found in Bangkok. Even though, there was a decisive measure in sealing off the construction site in Lak Si District (the cluster where the strain was first reported), the strain have been found in 10 provinces. The ministry feared that it could become the dominant strain in Thailand, considering the greater infectious rate of the strain.—BBC Thai; Prachachat Turakij
• The PM announced that Thailand will reserve 25 millions more  Johnson and Johnson, including Pfizer vaccines and 8 millions more from Sinovac to secure 100 million doses target.—Thai Rath

Politics

• Thai MFA spokesperson made an official statement that Thai-Chinese relations remain strong and that Bangkok has been pursuing a balanced foreign policy between the US and China. The spokesperson said that Beijing has nominated the new Ambassador replacing Mr Liu Jian who fell ill and returned to mainland since December 2019. Mr Thanee also mentioned that the setup of American consulate-general in Chiang Mai (which is believed by some as having a capacity to conduct espionage in Southern China) has been constructed according to Thai and international laws.—Public Relations Department, Matichon, Siam Rath
• The secretary-general of the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) Anucha said he has not been informed about the party’s annual convention scheduled on 20 June. Anucha, who also serves as the Minister to the Prime Minister Office, said he had not heard about the attempt to kick him out of the position. PPRP secretary-general Anucha said he had not discussed this matter with the party leader Deputy PM Prawit.–Matichon
• The government whip from PPRP said even though there will be criticisms from coalition MPs in deliberating the 500 billion THB loan decree, the vote from the government must be in unity which is to approve the bill. The deliberation is scheduled on 9 June and is expected to  be finalised within a day.—Krungthep Turakij
• The freshly established Thai Sarng Thai Party has appointed former Pheu Thai Chief Strategist Sudarat Keyuraphan as the party’s president, having the power to appoint party’s positions. The party is willing to file its candidate in all 350 constituencies.—Krungthep Turakij
• Student-led protest leader Parit ‘Penguin’ Chiwarak hasn’t got his bail revoked. The protest leader has been released on bail on conditions of not making inflammatory comment against the monarchy nor participating in protest which stir unrest. Someone filed a complaint against Parit for his Facebook posts and his participation of silent protest to call for releases of other protest leaders. The court said Parit had not violate any condition.—Krungthep Turakij
• PPRP MP Paiboon Nittitawan outlined the timeline for the Constitutional amendment. Both chambers are expected to convene on 22 or 23 June to set up committee to deliberate on each amending article. The deliberation will take one month before returning this to the Parliament in late July. The second reading of the amendment will be on early August. The gap between the second and third reading will be 15 days and expected the third and final reading to be held in late August. The PPRP legal pundit said he personally believe that the process will be seamless.—Krungthep Turakij

Analysis/opinion

• Veteran anchor with a very close ties to the Chinese charges d’affaires Sutthichai Yoon reported on the rumour that Beijing is ‘not so pleased’ with Bangkok, as the Kingdom has been tilting more to the American camp. Suthichai said that such a rumour has been there for quite some times, but more tangibly so when there has been no appointment of Chinese ambassador to Thailand and no visa issued to Thai students to study in China. The other sign of conflict is the high-speed railway which has been stalemated for quite some times. The veteran journalist said that this is very rare for Thai MFA to explicitly clarify on issues related to relations with major powers. There will be more in-depth analysis with Chulalongkorn Economic scholar Piti Srisangnam on this issue on Suthichai Live at 8.00pm.—Suthichai Live

Economic:

APEC

• At the APEC Ministers Responsible for Trade Meeting from 4-5 June, Commerce Minister Jurin said Thailand will help with the  transportation of vaccines and essential goods for fighting Covid-19; Thailand will comply with the WTO multilateral trading system; supports Compulsory Licensing (CL) to enable countries to manufacture Covid-19 vaccines without seeking permission from the patent owner and will also advocate for COVID-19 vaccines to be removed from IP protection lists under TRIPs agreement; supports WTO’s move to accelerate negotiations on vaccine production with the WHO; and backs the WTO in concluding many pending issues such as fishery, temporary exemption of e-commerce tax and promotion of agricultural products.  Minister Jurin further articulated that Thailand promotes sustainable trade practices through BCG economic model and that it will re-open to foreign tourists through the Phuket Tourism Sandbox model on 1 July as part of its support for APEC connectivity.  Sources:  The Nation Thai Government’s Public Relations Department Bangkok Post  Department of Trade Negotiations News

Australia

• Banpu Plc, a non-oil energy conglomerate, has acquired 2 utility-scale solar farms in Australia’s state of New South Wales in a deal worth 97.5 million AUD (2.33 billion Baht).  The new assets are Beryl Solar Farm (BSF) with a capacity of 110.9 megawatts (MW) and Manildra Solar Farm (MSF) with a capacity of 55.9MW.  The purchase marks another step in Banpu’s move toward renewable generation in Australia where it has been operating coal mines for over 2 decades.  Sources:  Thansettakij Krungthep Turakij Bangkok Post
• S&P Global Ratings upgraded its outlook on Australia’s AAA sovereign rating to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’, given that Australia’s 2-trillion AUD economy has rebounded with a +1.8 percent GDP QoQ  and +1.1 percent YoY growth in Q1 of 2021.  Australia is among a handful of countries globally hat can boast an economy that’s larger now than before the pandemic.  This owes largely to Australia’s successful handling of the pandemic, together with massive fiscal and monetary stimulus.  Australia is also one of the 9 countries in the world to garner an AAA rating from all 3 major rating agencies.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij Reuters

Tourism and Investment

• On 4 June, CESA approved the launch of the tourism sandbox program in Phuket on 1 July, wherein inoculated foreign tourists who also test negative can fly directly Phuket and forgo the 14-day quarantine.  They are required to stay in Phuket for 14 days, after which they can travel freely around Thailand.  Already, Thai Airways said it will start direct flights from 5 European cities to Phuket in July, and direct flights between Hong Kong and Phuket will also resume from 2 July.  Source:  Bangkok Post The Nation
• CESA on Friday approved of measures proposed by DPM Supattanapong’s ad-hoc committee to stimulate foreign investment and spending.  These measures aim to lure 1 million foreigners and are anticipated to generate 1 trillion Baht for the economy.  They target 4 groups, namely: the Wealthy Global Citizens and high net worth individuals through the Flexible Plus Program; Wealthy Pensioners; Work-from-Thailand professionals and also High-Skilled Professionals.  The measures aim to grant rich foreigners 10-year long stay visa, allow them own land property and pay a 17 percent personal income tax on local earnings.  However, Finance Ministry is voicing opposition to the scheme as the 17 percent tax rate will reduce the government’s revenue collection.  Sources:  Thai Government News   Prachachart Turakij Matichon  Bangkok Post 

Sugar

• Thai Commerce Minister Jurin has called upon Vietnam’s Ambassador to Thailand, HE Phan Chi Thanh to refrain from imposing anti-dumping duties on raw sugar exported from Thailand.  Vietnam has been conducting an anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing (CVD) duty investigation on Thai sugar since September 2020, with the investigation set to conclude on 15 June.  It is expected that a combined 51 percent levy will be imposed on Thai sugar; of which 46 percent is AD and 5 percent for CVD duty.  Minister Jurin also asked Vietnam to relax its regulations on drug registration and to better facilitate the export of living pigs from Thailand.  Source:  Bangkok Post Thai Rath
• Fitch Solution noted Thailand will be a supplier of cane harvesting machinery to other countries in Southeast Asia.  Although much of the machinery used in the sugar sector is imported, Thailand’s exports of harvesting machinery for different agricultural products (ie: rice) had risen substantially in recent years.  In Vietnam, the Philippines and Cambodia, Thailand has been the top supplier of harvesting machinery imports over recent years.   From 2024-25 Fitch forecasts Thailand to become the third-largest producer of sugar cane globally, behind Brazil and India.  Source:  Bangkok Post, 4 June 2021
• Thai sugar cane output is expected to fall significantly this year because of drought, but millers and farmers may be able to cope with the decrease thanks to the government’s bio-, circular and green (BCG) economic model.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 7 June 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,419 (91  from prisons)	179,886	1,233/ 355	129,516	151,023	2,855,041 (+9,754) (= 3.775%  of the population)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,296 [1,347 (get tested in hospital) + 949 (active case finding)]	32 (in SQ)	49,101 [28,828 in field hospital]	47,479 (+943)	1,296 (+33)	4,218,094	1,363,053 (+17,837) (=1.678 % of the population)

• It is the first public apology by the PM on vaccine rollout schemes. This morning when the PM presided over the mass vaccination ceremony at the Bang Sue Train Station, the PM said “the global situation is still uncertain, we need to administer according to the risk. If it makes people feel uncomfortable, I apologise then.”—Krungthep Turakij

Politics

• The main ruling Palang Pracharat Party is scheduled to hold its annual convention on 20 June at the North-eastern province of Khon Kaen. It is widely expected that Deputy Agriculture Minister Thammanat will ascend to the secretary-general seat of the main ruling party.—Than Settakij
• After the rumour on House Dissolution getting more prevalent, main figures from ruling Democrat Party came out to dismiss it.:
  • Democrat leader and Deputy PM Jurin said that as a coalition party, he has not received any signal of such dissolution after the budget bill has passed. The Democrat leader said Democrat ministers will continue to work regardless. He mentioned for several times in his interview that as of now, the relationship in the government remains the same, as for the future he said ‘it’s a thing for the future.’—Krungthep Turakij
  • House Speaker Chuan Leekpai said in relation to the rumour that he believed the House can maintain the situation and that there will be no need to dissolve the Parliament.—Khao Sod
• The House is going to deliberate on the 500 billion THB loan decree this Wednesday.
  • Democrat is going to hold a meeting with its MPs tomorrow before the House deliberation.–Matichon
  • Opposition Pheu Thai and Move Forward Party announed that they will not vote for the decree.–Matichon
• Opposition Pheu Thai Party politicians in eastern Bangkok, including Treerat Sirichantaropas, submitted their resignation letters from the main Opposition Party on Friday.—Krungthep Turakij
  • For background: Treerat is seen to belong to a group led by former Pheu Thai Chief Strategist Sudarat who left the party and setting up her own political party ‘Sarng Thai’.
• Nida Poll released its third survey on Bangkokian’s ideal governor. The results showed a different pattern from that of the first and second survey. The gubernatorial race has been suspended since the coup in 2014 and expected to be hold later this year.

Candidate	3rd Survey June 2021	2nd Survey April 2021	1st Survey March 2021
Have not decided	30.62	32.67	29.96
Chatchart Sitthiphan (former Transport Minister)	23.84	24.77	22.43
Pol Gen Chakthip Chaijinda (former Police Chief)	12.57	11.93	15.51
Pol Gen Asawin Kwanmeung (current Governor)	10.59	8.66	7.68
Any candidate from Pheu Thai	5.33	3.95	4.49
Rosana Tositakul (former Senator/ activist)	3.43	2.89	4.26
Any candidate from Progressive Movement or Move Forward Party	2.82	4.26	4.26
Suchatvee Suwansawat (King Mongkut’s Technological Institute Rector)	2.05	1.59	3.35
Any candidate from Democrat Party	1.75	2.81	2.66
Any candidate from Palang Pracharat Party	1.22	2.20	3.27
Vote No	1.6	1.52	0.15

• On the one year anniversary of the disappearance of Thai dissents in Cambodia Wanchalerm, at least 12 foreign embassies, including with Australian, German and Swedish posts, coincidentally posted similar messages to voice their concerns over the enforced disappearance.—Krungthep Turakij, Spring News, Matichon Weekly, Prachatai, The Standard, WorkpointToday, Khao Sod, Matichon, The NATION

Analysis/opinion

• With high expectation that Thammanat will ascend to the PPRP secretary-general, media pondered on the issue:
  • Khao Sod regarded the venue of the convention as a sign of power Thammanat have over the current PPRP secretary-general whose constituency is in Central Thailand. Thammanat is reportedly close to Ekkarat Changlao, PPRP MP from Khon Kaen.—Khao Sod
  • Matichon regarded the convention to be the End Game by the so-called ‘Four Deputies’ Group to grab the secretary-general sat. One of the proofs is the assignment of Deputy Labour Minister Narumon, one of the Four Deputies group, as deputy head of budget bill deliberation committee. The situation on 20 June will be a political seesaw which saw the group under former Economic Tzar Somkid kicked out of politics. The internal restructuring in PPRP will mean the cabinet reshuffle.–Matichon
• William Pesek on Asian Nikkei Review wrote an opinion piece saying that the economic prospect of the Kingdom post-pandemic has been descended into darkness. The worst nightmare for the Kingdom economy came in the form of K-shaped recoveries where the upper middle class and wealthy see fortunes go up and most of society sees them fall. The commentator said that the economic management PM Prayut has been doing is that of the 1990s and it will not bring about a bright future in the post-pandemic era.—Asia Nikkei
• Inside Thailand said there must be at least three conditions before the PM to dissolve the Parliament. The realisation of herd immunity from mass vaccination, the signages of contracts from 2021 Budget and the rearrangement of civil servants are determinants of the timeline for House dissolution. Optimally, the PM might aim to dissolve the Parliament in May 2022.—Inside Thailand
• Nation Weekend outlined factors whether Bhumjaithai Party will remain in the coalition as followed.—Nation Weekend

To remain	To depart
The PM fears the government unity be in peril	Cabinet reshuffle and some BJT ministers gone
Secured a deal with big name in BJT for BJT to keep it current portfolios	Conflicts on major projects
BJT stopped impeding the concession under their portfolio’s projects (clah between Transport and Interior)	The PM got pissed and sacked BJT from the coalition. (less likely)
When the pandemic situation gets better and Anutin gained control of Public Health Ministry	The PM could administer with minority government.
Seeing the big picture, the government unity must be priority.

Australia

• Ambassador’s interview with The NATION Thailand was published yesterday: https://fb.watch/5ZcJw7LoFM/

Headlines summary as of 4 June 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,631 (189 from prisons)	171,979	1,182/ 376	120,697	143,116	2,727,759 (+24,786) (= 3.836% of the population)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Total vaccination (doses)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,391 [1,306 (get tested in hospital) + 1,085 (active case finding)]	51 (in SQ)	50,105 [28,638 in field hospital]	44,936 (+824)	1,177 (+31)	3,961,589	1,233,830 (+31,233) (=1.7 % of the population)

• It is expected that the PM will head the CCSA economic meeting to endorse the timeline for the reopening of 10 provinces to international tourists. The prototype of this scheme will begin with Phuket Sandbox aiming to welcome international tourists from 1 July.—Manager, Prachachat Turakij

◦              The head of Phuket Tourist Association gave an interview that he is afraid that the timeline might not be realised as there have been a lot of mismanagements and miscommunications.—Inside Thailand 

Politics

•             Today marked one year anniversary of the disappearance of Thai dissent exiled in Cambodia Wanchalearm Satsaksit.

◦              This morning, relatives to Wanchalearm went to the Ministry of Justice and other related agencies to call for their actions in investigating the whereabouts of Wanchalearm.—Matichon

◦              Thai Rath ran a long report to mark the incident, arguing that the disappearance of Wanchalearm led to the minor white bow movement, then to student-led mass protests later in the year. Since the coup in 2014, there have been nine people disappeared with two found dead. The so-called ‘neither allowed to stay nor die’ direction led to the use of enforced disappearance.—Thai Rath

◦              Democratic foreign embassies in Thailand posted similar messages denouncing the enforced disappearance on the day.—Voice TV, Krungthep Turakij, The Nation

•             The budget bill passed its first reading on Wednesday with 268 MPs voted for and 201 voted against with two abstains.—Prachachat Turakij

◦              There were however four MPs from Opposition Move Forward Party voted for the government proposals.—Isra News

◦              The Natural Resources and Environment Minister and ruling Chatthai Pattana Party MPs did not vote for the bill. He said that it was not intentional, rather he was in the middle of nominating names for the committee to deliberate the bill in the second reading.—Krungthep Turakij

◦              A ‘highlight’ in the budget committee see Reungkrai Leekijwatana, formerly affiliated with Pheu Thai Party, joined the committee to deliberate the second reading of the bill under the quota of the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP). —Thai Rath

◦              Timeline: When the first reading is passed, the House will have 90 days to deliberate in the second reading (from 7 June to 12 August). The third reading will be from 13 August. The Senator will also vote on the bill on 23-24 August before ascend to the King for endorsement.

•             After Reungkrai joined the budget committee under the PPRP quota, the government whip said that the legal pundit from Pheu Thai Party has been the PPRP member. And if Reugnkrai joined the PPRP is of people’s interest, in the next election, the government whip said there will be a ‘bigger surprise’.—Krungthep Turakij

•             The PPRP is scheduled to hold its annual convention on 20 June when it is expected to see a great power play for the party’s executive positions. The convention, which has been deferred for several times since April as the Kingdom saw the third pandemic surge, will be held in Khon Kaen which has lesser infection compared to Bangkok.—Krungthep Turakij

•             Deputy Public Health Minister Sathit gave an exclusive interview to Daily News urging the government to declare a clear timeline to solve the pandemic and political conflicts, including with amending the Constitution within six months. The Minister from third largest ruling Democrat Party said the PM should dissolve the Parliament in December, provided that the pandemic situation gets better. The exclusive will be published tomorrow.—Daily News

Analysis/opinion

•             Krungthep Turakij wrote an article arguing that the political faith of the Deputy PM, Public Health Minister and Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) leader Anutin is in deep peril as it is believed that the PM aims to retaliate the BJT MPs inflammatory comments against him. Moreover, as the covid situation seems to get better, taking back Public Health and get the full credit when it is solved seems to be politically viable choice for the PM. The article also mentioned that having Anutin as the party leader serves Newin Chidchob who is ‘the real BJT leader’ better than serving the interest of the party’s MP. The Party MPs felt disappointed that Anutin could not use the public health volunteer network under the ministry control to maximise BJT political interests. It is also reported that as all canon from the inner circle of the PM aims at Anutin, his political journey lies on whether Newin could break a deal with the PM to keep Anutin in position.—Krungthep Turakij

◦              Matichon also argued that it is likely that the PM will wage a ‘lesson war’ against Anutin and BJT.—Matichon

Australia

• It is reported that a Rescue Centre in Krabi found a deceased Australian who was understood to fell from the yacht.—New Na

Economic News Summary:

• PM Prayut will today chair a CESA meeting to finalise the reopening plan of Thailand’s tourism, as well as new incentives for foreigners to invest in the real estate sector.   In discussion will also be the 50 percent government co-payment scheme to help SMEs retain employment, to be funded by the 500 billion Baht loan.  The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) will work with the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and Thai Chamber of Commerce to identify SMEs eligible for the measure.  Sources:  Krungthep Turakij Bangkok Post The Nation
• Thailand’s Manufacturing Production Index in April soared by 18.46 percent YoY, which is the highest surge in 8 years while capacity utilisation was 59 percent.  The MPI is boosted by higher production of automobiles, beer and air conditioners and is also partly the result of low-base effect.  The third wave of COVID-19 outbreak is not expected to affect supply chains and will therefore not significantly impact overall industrial output.  Source:  Reuters
• Inflation in May increased for a second consecutive month by 2.44 percent YoY, but declined by 0.93 percent compared to April.  While higher prices of energy and food drove up inflation, it is also depressed by government’s subsidies of utility bills.  From January – May 2021, inflation rose by 0.83 percent, while core inflation expanded by 0.23 percent YoY.  Commerce Ministry forecasted that in 2021, inflation will range from 0.7 – 1.7 percent.  Sources:  MCOT  Reuters
• Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) has revised its 2021 GDP forecast for the Thai economy down to a +1.9 from a +2.0 percent growth; attributing the minimal revision to export which could grow by +15 percent.  Nevertheless, it expects the third pandemic outbreak to be contained in July, will incur an economic loss of 310 billion Baht.  Domestic consumption will remain low and SCB expects the number of international tourist arrivals is at 400,000 instead of its original forecast of 1.5 million.  SCB agrees with the government’s recent move to secure 500 billion Baht worth of loan and anticipates the government to immediately spend 100 billion Baht within 2021.  In Q1 of 2021, household debt could reach 91 percent and unemployment will peak in Q2.  Overall, SCB projects the Thai economy to recover to pre-Covid levels by early 2023.

Source: Bangkok Post   Prachachart Turakij

• The Bank of Thailand (BOT) expects the Thai economy to recover to pre-COVID-19 level in Q1 of 2023; a delay from its original projection of Q2/Q3 of 2022 as the third wave of COVID-19 ravages the economy and reduce the debt serviceability of businesses and SMEs.  BOT reiterates that vaccination is the key to reviving the economy.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Thai Restaurant Association (TRA) estimated that the sector is losing 1.4 billion Baht per day under the current COVID-19 restrictions imposed by the government.  Some 50,000 restaurants have closed over the past 2 months, either temporarily or permanently, while up to 500,000 workers have lost their jobs.  TRA projected at least 10,000 restaurants to go out of business completely by the end of the outbreak.  It also bemoans the lack of government’s assistance to their sector, which might perish even when tourism resumes.  Source:  Reuters  Thai PBS World
• The Finance Ministry (MoF) is set to adjust its mid-term fiscal plan following the government’s issuing of the 500-billion-Baht loan decree. This mid-term plan, which covers years 2022-2025, was approved by the cabinet in December 2020.  The adjustment is made in light of the lower state revenue collection anticipated for this year.  In the first 7 months of FY 2021, the government’s collection of net revenue totalling 1.22 trillion Baht is already 128 billion Baht below the target. Under the mid-term fiscal plan, the MoF expects the government to post revenue of 2.40 trillion baht in 2022, 2.49 trillion in 2023, 2.62 trillion in 2024 and 2.75 trillion in 2025.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has introduced a new auto loan debt mediation program to help 100,000 borrowers with 38 billion Baht worth of car loans outstanding, effective until 31 July 2021. The scheme covers the borrowers 1) whose debt is not classified as NPLs 2) had their cars seized, but the cars have not been sent to auction and; 3) had their cars sent to auction and they still have a debt burden.  Total car loans outstanding for both banks and non-banks total 2.5 trillion Baht from 6.6 million car loan accounts. Source:  Bangkok Post