Headlines summary as of 31 May 2021

News

• The Bangkok Communicable Disease Committee eased the lockdown measure, allowing the museums, art galleries, tattoo shops, manicures, beauty clinics, health spa and parks effective from 1 June 2021.–Matichon
• The PM affirmed today that there will be AstraZeneca vaccines into the Kingdom in June.—Krungthep Turakij

Politics

• After the Chulabhorn Royal Academy allowed to import ‘alternative vaccines’, there have been many Provincial Administrative Organisations announced their needs to get the Sinophram to inoculate their local citizen. There have been conflictual information on whether the scheme could be realised:
  • On 30 May, Deputy PM and government legal pundit Wissanu said that the PAO must consult this with the Interior Ministry and it can be done without cabinet resolution.–Matichon
  • Interior Minister put a brake on the PAOs scheme saying that this matter should get the CCSA green light first as there was an suggestion by the Ombudsman that local authority cannot procure the vaccine directly from the vaccine producers.–Prachachat
  • Deputy Interior Minister gave an interview saying that the Ministry feared that there are discrepancies in budget among different PAOs. The Ministry feared that the richer PAOs will have more access to vaccines.—Inside Thailand
• After Thanathorn, head of Progressive Movement came out to unveil in his FB Live, that Thai MFA had ordered Permanent Representative of Thailand to the United Nations in Geneva to negotiate for vaccines from COVAX facility. The Thai authority will return the vaccines, once the supply in the Kingdom is sufficient.–Matichon
  • Thai MFA spokesperson issued a statement  saying that the document was that of swap agreement.—NATION Thailand
• The Parliament is debating on the budget bill and loan decree the Opposition Pheu Thai and Move Forward Party vowed to disapproved the bill citing the allocation does not reflect the necessity during pandemic.—Thai Rath
• Former Education Minister who was stripped of his ministerial position by a court Natthaphol Teepasuwan resigned from party-list Palang Pracharat Party. He cited that the legal case will take quite some times, so he decided to resign for the next in line could take his position.–Matichon

Analysis/ opinion

• Three editors from the Nation Group analysed on the unbridgeable gap between the PM and ruling Bhumjaithai Party. It was reported that Deputy PM, Public Health Minister and BJT leader openly praised its MPs which heavily criticized the PM measures on dealing with the pandemic. Knowing the defiance from BJT leader, the inner-circle of the government the PM, Deputy PM Prawit and Interior Minister Anupong convened to sort the issue out, trying to compromise with Anutin. It was reported, however, that Anupong said ‘I could not do it’. Under the circumstances, there are five scenarios listed from least to most possible:
  • The PM and the government stay in power for two more years.
  • The PM reshuffles the cabinet within the coalition.
  • The PM kicks the BJT out and stay on as minority government, bringing in professionals to look after Public Health Ministry.
  • The PM resigns.
  • And House Dissolution.—Nation Weekend

Economic:

CPTPP

• In an exclusive interview with Matichon newspaper, DPM Don affirmed that Thailand has not shut its doors on joining the negotiation for CPTPP accession.  He noted the government is working to address domestic concerns on CPTPP since the pandemic outbreak has accentuated the need for Thailand to join FTAs.  Moreover, participating in the negotiation is one of the many steps towards full CPTPP accession; a process which is anticipated to take years to complete.  Source: Matichon

Others

• A gap in terms of contributions to Thailand’s GDP between tourism -dependent and agriculture-reliant provinces is likely to widen in the post-pandemic era, said Finance Ministry (MoF).  The tourism and manufacturing-reliant provinces totalled 15, including Bangkok, and account for 70 percent of the country’s GDP.  Meanwhile, the other 62 provinces are reliant on agriculture and contribute to 30 percent of the nation’s GDP.  MoF is concerned that once Thailand reopens, the 15 provinces will recover quicker than the rest of the provinces, despite being the hardest hit by the pandemic.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Employers’ Confederation of Thai Trade and Industry (EconThai) is worried about the number of underemployed workers during first two COVID-19 outbreaks in Thailand, which grew from 2.3 million in Dec 2020 to 4.3 million in March 2021.  The figure has yet to take into account the third COVID-19 outbreak, which is expected to soar from April onwards and will significantly dampen domestic purchasing power.  Underemployment refers to workers who work between 0-20 hours.  EconThai noted that the pandemic has changed the Thai labour structure, with some 1 million workers returning to their home provinces to work as farmers.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• A survey conducted to assess Thais’ confidence in the economy in the next 6 months, the Thailand Regional Economic Sentiment Index for May has taken a dip, according to Finance Ministry.  The Index dropped in all regions except the Northeast and the East due to the third COVID-19 outbreak, following previous economic expansion activities in April.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Central Bankruptcy Court will rule on Thai Airways’s (THAI) deb-rehabilitation plan on June 15, after suspending the hearing on 28 May to allow for the assessment of complaints filed by creditors against the plan.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The CEO of Minor International (MINT), Bill Heinecke, wrote a letter to PM Prayut as well as addressed a number of other ministers to presenting 7 proposals for the government to restart the tourism industry.  Among the proposals is for the country to offer nationwide quarantine-free entry for vaccinated tourists who test negative for COVID-19; launch the Phuket tourism sandbox model on time and establish clear guidelines for vaccine passport scheme.  He also suggested a range of remedial measures for hospitality operators and employment retention scheme.  Sources:  Prachachat Turakij  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 28 May 2021

News

• The head of big Thai conglomerate Minor International submitted an open letter requesting assistance and support Tourism business from the PM calling for the government to allow Embassies in Thailand (namely, the US, Australian and other European nations) to vaccinate their citizen in Thailand as the Chinese embassy did for its citizen. The  assistance from the Embassies will make it easier for the Kingdom to realise herd immunity. The letter is also submitted to related agencies, including the Deputy PM Supphattanaphongse.—Manager Online
• The gazette allowing Chulabhorn Royal Academy to import ‘alternative vaccine’ to support the national procurement scheme turned to be a drama:
  • The secretary-general of the academy said that it eyes to import Chinese Sinophram vaccines approved by the WHO to support the national vaccine pool. In his FB post, Dr. Nithi Mahanont said the Academy will import the vaccine and inoculate Thai people until the main vaccine (AstraZeneca produced locally) is ready to conduct mass dispatch.—Prachachat Turakij; Thai Enquirer
  • A company claimed to be a business partner with the Sinophram producer submitted a letter to Dr Nithi saying that the company has a slot of 20 million doses to supply the Kingdom within two weeks. The letter claimed that they are trying to reach to the PM for months but cannot get access to.—Post Today
  • Authorities, including the government spokesperson, said that the company does not have the ‘dossier’ to get hands on the Chinese vaccines. Thai FDA said that the local company is not the real holder and not eligible to get Sinophram.—Matichon; Krungthep Turakij

• Thai FDA just approved the Chinese Sinophram vaccine for emergency use.—Thai Rath This morning the FB Page of the Russian Embassy in Thailand posted a photo of the Russian Ambassador met with Deputy PM and Health Minister Anutin to discuss on public health cooperation and the delivery of Russian vaccine «Sputnik V» to the local market.—Russian Embassy Thailand
• Started with BBC Thai, other Thai media reported on the detection of so-called ‘Thai strain: C.36.3’ in 109 people in the UK from people travelling from Thailand:
• Thai health authority said that the strain called Thailand ex Egypt was found in people travelling from Egypt, rather it should be called an Egyptian strain.—Khao Sod
• CCSA told a press briefing that there is an emerging cluster in an Embassy in the Wattana District. CCSA is making sure it is now under control.

Politics

• As the vaccine distribution turned political, the PM said in a press conference that he does not have any problem with other coalition parties, especially with the Bhumjaithai Party. He said the reports about the conflicts in the coalition aims to stir disputes.—Krungthep Turakij
• After the Deputy PM and government legal pundit Wissanu said that should the loan decree does not pass the House approval, the PM must, by tradition, must dissolve the Parliament.—Thai Rath
• The coalition Democrat spokesperson said that the party is ready for any upcoming election and that the party is going to file MP in all 350 constituencies.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic:

Tourism

• Italthai Group, the operator of hotel chains under Onyx Hospitality Group, expressed concerns on the reopening of Phuket and the entire country to international tourists on 1 July and 1 October, respectively.  Specifically, he questioned if Thailand would be able to inoculate its population quickly enough and if it is ready to handle another wave of outbreak brought in by tourists.  Moreover, Phuket’s high season is in October, when European tourists would flock the island.  In July, most tourists are from India and the Middle East, which have yet to emerge from the pandemic.  Hotels are currently relying on domestic tourists, which accounts for only 20 percent of their revenue.  Italthai anticipates international tourism will pick up in 2022 and 2023 and urge hotels to reconsider their branding and positioning since Thailand could resurge as the world’s no. 1 tourist destination in the post-pandemic period.  Sources:  Prachachat Turakij Bangkok Insight
• Through the Pattaya, Move On project, Pattaya plans to welcome back foreign tourists who are fully inoculated without quarantine requirements In Q4 of this year.  However, tourists must remain in Bang Lamung and Sattahip districts for 7 days before travelling elsewhere.  Pattaya is therefore seeking more COVID-19 vaccine doses to cover at least 70 percent of its residents.  It will submit the details of its sealed routes and other guidelines to the Public Health Ministry and the CCSA next month.  Source:  Thai Government Public Relations Department

Others

• Parliament approved an emergency decree to amend the Civil and Commercial Code to reduce the interest rate charged for loan defaults which has been used for almost a century. The amendment bill cuts the rate in contracts in the event no rate is specified to 3 percent, and the rate for defaults to 5 percent from 7.5 percent.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• At Prachachat Turakij newspaper’s seminar entitled ‘Thailand Survivor’, NESDC noted the Thai economy this year will be driven by export, public investment and domestic consumption.  With export continuing to pick up, NESDC Sec-Gen Danucha is most worried about domestic consumption.  Through the 500 billion Baht loan, NESDC and the JSCCIB will launch targeted financial assistance programs to struggling SMEs using the 300 billion Baht budget.  It will also introduce programs for businesses to retain employment, with funding allocated from the 170 billion Baht portion.  These are short-term measures designed to extend the lifeline of SMEs that have been embattled by COVID-19 in the past year.
• In the long-run, Danucha said post-COVID-19 Thailand needed to restructure to reduce social and income disparity as well as enhance its competitiveness.  This could be done by ensuring SMEs, MSMEs and the manufacturing sector endorse digital trends, in addition to the implementation of BCG economic model.  Sources:  Khao Sod Bangkok Post 
• Given its impacts of its political instability and COVID-19 outbreak, Myanmar could see its GDP contract by 11-20 percent this year, according the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).  To this end, Thailand’s export to Myanmar is also forecasted to fall by 60-96.5 billion Baht, which is a historically low level and is equivalent to a 51.6 – 82.2 percent decline.  This could chip away Thailand’s export growth by 0.8-1.3 percent.  However, FDI is expected to divert Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand.  Source:  Prachachat Turakij Thai Rath Bangkok Post 
• Some 5 Japanese companies (Toyota Daihatsu Engineering & Manufacturing, Toyota Motor Thailand , Kansai Electric Power Corporation, Toyota Tsusho M&E (Thailand) and Osaka Gas (Thailand) ) are keen to invest in renewable energy businesses at Smart Park industrial estate in the EEC zone.  It is part of a collaboration between Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand to promote clean energy.  Both countries are to establish a Carbon Neutral Industrial Estate committee to study clean energy development this year.  Smart Park is the first project in the EEC that aims to develop a high-tech industrial hub.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 27 May 2021

News 

• Last night saw the new development in the national vaccine procurement scheme as the Royal Gazette published an announcement indicating that the Chulabhorn Royal Academy is given powers to act unilaterally to secure vaccines and act in the public’s interest on issues concerning the Covid-19 pandemic. The announcement was signed by HRH Princess Chulabhorn, the chairperson of the Royal Academy.—Royal Gazette
  • The Royal Academy is scheduled to hold a press conference tomorrow on the announcement and the procurement of SinoPhram vaccine widely used in China. The Deputy PM and Public Health Minister Anutin and the Secretary-general of the Royal Academy will lead the press conference.
  • Deputy PM Anutin gave an interview saying that the just has the knowledge of the announcement once the Gazette was published. Anutin said that he needs to consult with Deputy PM Wissanu, the legal pundit of the government first on how the Public Health Ministry should act.—Inside Thailand
  • In a press briefing yesterday, the CCSA spokesperson said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had got the affirmation from the Indian Ambassador that there is no Indian diplomat getting the virus.—Thai Rath
  • The Public Health Ministry spokesperson said that the AstraZeneca vaccines will be delivered to the Kingdom in June, but not on 1 June.—Thai Rath
  • The government spokesperson said the PM has agreed to the use of Thai local herb ‘Fa Ta Lai Jone’ (green chireta) to treat people infected with COVID-19 in conjunction with Favipiravir.—Thai Rath

Politics

• The Deputy PM and legal pundit Wissanu said that the case the former Finance Minister filed to the Administrative Court on the legality of fresh 500 billion THB loan bill is no longer valid as the Decree has been gazetted. The former Fence Minister took the issue to the court pointing out that the loan aiming to revitalise the economy during the pandemic was not done using the normal check and balance committee.—Thai Rath
• The Deputy PM said that should the decree doe not pass the House approval, the PM needs, by tradition, to dissolve the Parliament as the decree is about finance and considered a significant bill.—Naew Na
• Anti-government group led by former Red Shirt leader went to handover a letter to the ruling Bhumjaithai Party calling the party to leave the coalition. The ‘Thai Mai Thon (Thai people tolerate no more)’ group which has been pressuring the PM to resign and calling for ruling parties to revoke their support from the coalition sent message to the BJT Party leader saying that he could be the PM if Prayut resigns.—Krungthep Turakij
• DPM and BJT leader Anutin said in response to the Thai Mai Thon comment that the Bhumjaithai Party has no say in the coalition and has no use staying in the coalition that this is up to the PM whether he still see the values of BJT being part of the government.—Krungthep Turakij
• Earlier today, the Thai Mai Thon went to hand over letter to the Army Chief, calling for the Generals to revoke their support from the government.—Krungthep Turakij
• After the PM has made an order to defer the registration for vaccine on the national-level ‘Mor Prom’ application, there have been political reactions from coalition parties:
• Deputy Public Health minister from Democrat said he disagreed with the continual changes of the vaccine roll-out and has urged the CCSA under the PM direct control to has an explanation on this.—Matichon
• Transport Minister from Bhumjaithai Party said this issue should be addressed by the CCSA or the PM who led the CCSA.—Matichon
• It is reported that after filming a birthday video message for the Queen, the PM, together with the Foreign Minister, the Public Health Minister, the Transport Minister, the Education Minister, the Justice Minister, the Industry Minister (without the presence of minister from Democrat) to hold a meeting at the Government House. It is expected that the meeting is about the deferment of the registration.—Matichon
• Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Don said that after the Digital Economy is seeking a mean to file a case and extradite Paris-based Monarchy critic Somsak Jaemtirasakul back to the Kingdom, the related agency is coordinating with French authority on this.—Krungthep Turakij

Analysis/ opinion

• Oxford PhD student and son to the former ASEAN Chairman, Faudi Pitsuwan wrote an opinion piece on the ‘royal intervention’ by HRH Princess Chulabhorn through her institution into the vaccine procurement schemes. The political scientist wrote that though it is nice of the Princess to take the people’s welfare in her own hands, the ‘intervention’ would make the monarchy under criticism for being politicised. He wrote ‘For now, we can be sure that the ruling elites have split and that move by HRH Princess Chulabhorn has highlighted the royal anxiety over the government’s mishandling of the crisis. What this means in practice is that our government is no longer in control of its health care apparatus and there is a functioning, competing alternative health-care system led by HRH Princess Chulabhorn herself.’—Thai Enquirer

Australia

• The Embassy coordinated effort in donations to health workers at Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital was published by several media.—Krungthep Turakij, Matichon, SBS Thai, The Nation, Naew Na

Economic:

CPTPP

• DPM Don and Agriculture Minister Chalermchai convened a meeting last week to discuss CPTPP.  Agriculture Ministry needed more time to address the concerns of the farmers as well as to make sure that CPTPP does not hurt Thailand’s agricultural sector.  Agriculture Ministry is not against Thailand joining CPTPP, but reiterated that these concerns must be resolved first.  Source:  Thai Government Press Release Prachachat Turakij  Krungthep Turakij
• Assistant Professor Pitti Srisangnam of Chulalongkorn University’s ASEAN Centre debunked the myth that Thailand will not be able to domestically manufacture the anti-virus medication Favipiravir (used in treating COVID-19 patients) if it joins CPTPP due to patent linkage restriction.   Dr Piti said that Thailand could still exercise Compulsory Licensing in accordance with WTO rules and regulations as stated in Chapter 18.6: Understandings Regarding Certain Public Health Measures.  Source:  Thansettakij
• FTA Watch together with some 17 NGOs issued a statement calling for PM Prayut to stop his attempt in pushing Thailand to join the negotiation for CPTPP accession.  Their statement said the CPTPP Committee headed by DPM Don has been trying to lobby government agencies to accept Compulsory Licensing provision and that the Committee had misinterpreted the UPOV 1991.  They noted DPM Don had not held public consultations with civil society organisations despite the DPM claiming otherwise.  Source:  Isra News Kom Chad Luek

Others

• An executive decree allowing the government to borrow 500 billion Baht to combat COVID-19 was published in The Royal Gazette and enforced on 25 May.  The loan will be deliberated by the parliament after the budget bill debate next week.
• DPM Supattanapong disclosed that the government is preparing for future uncertainties by laying down the mechanism to secure the loan if needed.  However, the government may not have to borrow at all if the pandemic is contained, with the cooperation of all Thais.  DPM Supattanapong said the loan amount of 500 billion Baht is sufficient to stimulate the economy as nationwide vaccination will alleviate the severity of the situation.
• Breakdown of the 500 billion Baht loan:

• 300 billion Baht (60 percent) is for remedying affected people and businesses
• 170 billion baht (34%) to rehabilitate the economy through projects that maintaining employment and generate jobs for new graduates.  It will also be spent on stimulating investment and consumption, building basic infrastructure and helping SMEs access the Bank of Thailand’s soft loan.
• 30 billion baht (6%) is curb the spread of COVID-19 and enhance public health system, such as buying medical equipment and vaccines and improving medical facilities for COVID patients.

• Finance Minister Akhom expected the loan and its ensuing stimulus packages to boost the 2021 GDP growth by another +1.5 percent, which will add to MoF’s forecast of a +2.5 percent growth.  If the loan is made, the public debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 58.6 percent, which remains under the 60 percent ceiling.  Sources:  Cabinet’s press conference, 25 May 2021  Krungthep Turakij  Finance Ministry Press Release  Bangkok Post Bangkok Post Royal Gazette Publication 500 million Baht loan_May2021 
• Thailand’s April 2021 export saw the highest growth in 36 months, surging by +13.09 percent YoY (value: USD 21.4 billion), while import rose by +29.8 precent (value: USD 21.3 billion), imparting a USD182 million trade surplus.  This owes largely to the strong expansion in the exports of agricultural and food products; electrical appliances and PPE items. In the first 4 months of 2021, exports grew by +4.78 percent and imports by +13.9 percent, resulting in a USD 698 million trade surplus. Commerce Minister Jurin attributed the export uptick to the cooperation between MoC and the private sector through the Joint Public and Private Sector Consultative Committee on Commerce that eliminated export impediments and speed up reopening of border trade.  Source:   Thansettakij Bangkok Post
• NESDC revealed that Thailand’s unemployment rate in Q1 of 2021 hit 1.96 percent (equivalent to 758,000 jobless workers), reaching a 12-year high since the financial crisis in 2009 due to the impact of the third pandemic outbreak.    NESDC noted that the GDP of MSMEs has contracted by 9 percent and tourism is not anticipated to recover until 2026, which could trigger further unemployment.
• NESDC also reported that Q4 of 2020 household debt was 14.02 trillion Baht, an increase of 3.9 percent and also accounted for 89.3 percent of GDP.  The situation is expected to exacerbate in 2021 as the economy remains embroiled in COVID-19 outbreaks.  This will impact on household income and liquidity.  Sources:  Prachachart Turakij  Bangkok Post  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 21 May 2021

News

Significant updates from the CCSA

• The CCSA meeting headed by the PM has approved the extension of the state of emergency for the 12th time until 31 July 2021.—CCSA
• The CCSA spokesperson announced that the health authority found the local contagion of the so-called ‘Indian strain’ in 15 construction workers at the emerging cluster of Lak Si.—CCSA
• The CCSA spokesperson concludes the three channels of the vaccine roll out in Thailand starting from 7 June:
  • Registration via ‘Mor Phorm’ application-Thai nationals aged 60 and younger can start register from 30 May
  • On-site registration-as additional measure to the Mor Phorm
  • Active vaccination to specific groups of people at risk.
• As for foreigners in Thailand, the CCSA outlined the registration starting from 7 June as followed:
  • Onsite-registration using (1) Social security number or (2) passport at the hospital which has their health records or at designated hospitals.
  • For designated hospitals in Bangkok, Vimut Hospital, Bangkok Health Centre and other vaccination centres.
  • For designated hospitals in the provinces, hospitals where foreign nationals have registered health records.

• Chinese citizens living in Thailand began being vaccinated on Thursday as part of China’s global campaign to inoculate its nationals living and working abroad. The Chinese nationals got jabs from the Beijing-donated vaccines given to the Kingdom.—AP
• Bangkok Metropolitan Administration has ordered the closure of 10 fresh markets in the capital as vendors in the markets are at high-risk of contracting the virus. The ten markets are:
  • Yingchareon Market in Bang Khaen until 24 May
  • Central Din Daeng Market until 21 May
  • Bang Kapi Market until 22 May
  • Khlong Toey Market until 4 June
  • Sam Yarn Market until 20 May
  • Nong Jok Fresh Market until 31 May
  • Sai Net Market in Kannayao until 22 May
  • Sala Nam Lorn Market until 22 May
  • Lam Nok Kwaek Market until 21 May
  • Phu Yai Auan Market in Lad Phao until 22 May—Krungthep Turakij

Politics

• After the ruling Bhumjaithai Party spokesperson grilled the PM handling of the vaccine roll out, the Deputy PM Prawit came out to comment that as part of the coalition, the spokesperson should rethink about the comment. General Prawit who concurrently head the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party PPRP said the comment does not affect the unity of the coalition and that it is a personal matter.—Thai Rath
  • The Deputy PM and Bhumjaithai leader Anutin said that the comment by his party spokesperson will not affect the unity of the coalition. He said that he did not speak a word when PPRP grilled him and the Transport Minister.—Matichon
• An MP from the main Opposition Pheu Thai Party said as the budget plan does not reflect the necessity of the country facing the pandemic, the Opposition will vote against the bill.—Thai Rath
• Tomorrow marks the 7th anniversary of the coup by General Prayut to oust the Yingluck Pheu Thai government. There will be gatherings by Thai people overseas, including in the US, Sweden and Australia.
• The PM lawyer has filed a royal defamation case against the Paris-based Thai monarchy critic for his FB comment about the monarch’s health condition in relation to the pandemic. The PM lawyer also file the same charge against Opposition Move Forward Party MP for her comment.—Khao Sod
• The Minister of Digital Economy headed a committee meeting and pledged to revise the entire laws regulating the social media platforms. The minister still want to push for the extradition of those who broke Thai laws virtually to be punished in Thailand.—Krungthep Turakij

Analysis/ opinion

• The call for the PM to resign has been resonating by the former supporters of the PM:
  • The so-called ‘Peoples of Thailand’ Group has given the PM an ultimatum of one month to reshuffle the cabinet pushing Deputy PM Prawit, Interior Minister, Public Health Minister and Justice Minister out; or the PM must resign. The group who was supportive of the PM said they will escalate should the PM does not abide.—Thai Rath
  • A big name in the conservative camp, Prawase Wasi, wrote his Op-Ed suggesting the national unity government formed under the Buddhist concept of ‘the Great Elect’ is the best solution for the country. He suggested the new PM should head the government which is free from the party-quota.—Isra News Agency
  • Wassana Nanuam, the Army reporter, gave an analysis on the topic ‘If not PM Prayut, then who?’. She said that PM Prayut has been the best option in dealing with the situation where there is a challenge to monarchy. If the ‘signal’ has remain the same, there is no one and nothing which could topple the PM. The suggestion by the ‘Peoples of Thailand’ to coin in names like Supachai Panitchpakdi, the former head of UNCTAD is, according to Wassana, not feasible politically. She mentioned a couples of other possible names which from a security forces perspective, is a feasible candidate to replace PM Prayut. The name list includes former Democrat big name Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, PM-closed Gulf Energy Development CEO Sarath Ratanavadi or even former Army Chief Apirak Kongsompong.—Ringside

Economic

• Yesterday Thai Commerce Minister Jurin met the Mongolian Ambassador to Thailand, Tumar Amarsanaa for the first time since the Mongolian Embassy was established in Bangkok in year 2000.  Both countries vow to boost bilateral trade to USD100 million by year 2023, with Minister Jurin hoping Thailand would become the go-to-destination for Mongolian medical tourists in the post-pandemic period.  Sources:  Bangkok Post Khaosod
• At the International Conference on the Future of Asia (Nikkei Forum), PM Prayut said Asia could lead economies worldwide to rebound from COVID-19.  He pledged Thailand’s support for multilateral cooperation which can boost the region’s capacity to rebound from COVID-19.  Thailand will follow Japan’s recommendations to strengthen bilateral trade and investment ties, such as by promoting investments in Electric Vehicles, Eastern Economic Corridor, infrastructure projects as well as implement regulation reforms and upskill the workforce.  PM Prayut vows to pursue a strategic partnership with Japan, in addition to the Japan-Thailand Economic Partnership Agreement and ASEAN-Japan Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Partnership.   PM Prayut noted that Thailand will host APEC meetings next year and that it is considering whether or not to join the CPTPP.  The PM recognizes that international and regional frameworks such as ASEAN and the RCEP play a key role in a comprehensive recovery.  Sources: Thai Government News Matichon  Bangkok Post Thai Rath  
• At a separate interview with Asia Nikkei, PM Prayut said Thailand is controlling the latest outbreak of COVID-19 well due to its strong public health system, with 70 percent of the Thai population poised to be inoculated by the end of this year.  The government has also launched a roster of measures to maintain employment as well as to assist local businesses and the afflicted people.  He said the Thai economy will start recovering in Q4 of 2021.  The 2021 GDP growth is expected at 2.3 – 2.5 percent and 4.7 percent in 2022.  The PM continued to emphasize Thailand’s commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emission through initiatives such as the BCG economic model.  Source:  Prachachart Turakij
• More than 9.2 million employees under Section 33 of the Social Security Act are not required to register for COVID-19 vaccination through the government’s Mor Phrom app in order to receive their shots.  However, their employers will need to submit the list of employees who are keen to be vaccinated to the Labour Ministry through a web-service system.  The vaccines will then be administered to Section 33 workers at hospitals registered with social security system, starting with Bangkok in June.  In July, the vaccination program will kick off for Section 33 workers in 9 economic provinces, before it will be implemented nationwide.    The Labour ministry plans to inoculate 50,000 people daily, with vaccination program set to be completed in 2 months.  Sources:  Matichon Bangkok Post
• Phuket authorities will knock on people’s doors to encourage them to get their Covid-19 vaccine jabs to ensure the province is ready to reopen to tourism on July 1.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• COVID-19 has exposed Thailand’s over-reliance on international tourists, with Thailand’s low vaccination progress threatening the Phuket’s ability to reopen on 1 July.  In 2019, Chinese visitors totaled 10.9 million, constituting one-fourth of the total tourist arrivals to Thailand.  Tourism itself comprised 18 percent of Thailand’s GDP.  Nevertheless, the Chinese government is unlikely to allow its people to travel overseas soon.  Instead, the Chinese government has resorted to promote domestic tourism to boost its economy instead.  As such, the Tourism Authority of Thailand forsaw that it may not be until early next year when Chinese tourists would start returning to Thailand, after at least 70 percent of the Thai population is inoculated.  The NESDC has thereby slashed its estimate of foreign arrivals to Thailand this year to 500,000 with the revenue of 250 billion Baht; 3 times less than the domestic receipts recorded last year of 480 billion Baht.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) remains undecided about its new car production target this year, which is raffled by Thailand’s third COVID-19 outbreak as well as the global semiconductor shortage.  FTI will wait 2 months to assess their impacts before making the revision.  Originally, FTI had anticipated that automobile sales in Thailand this year would grow by +5.12 percent from the 1.42 million units last year.  In April 2021, car export increased by 160 percent YoY to 52,880 units.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Kasikornbank (KBank) forecasts that the Baht will weaken further against the US dollar by June this year because of dividend repatriation by foreign investors and the country’s lower current account surplus.  The Baht is expected to appreciate towards the end of 2021.  Source:  Bangkok Post