Headlines summary as of 11 May 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
1,919	86,924	1,270/ 390	57,037 (at 65.62%)	58,061	1,365,992 (+69,552) (= 2.064 %  of the population)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
1,902 [1,318 (get tested in hospital) + 584 (active case finding)]	17 (in SQ)	29,435 [9,438  in field hospital]	20,429 (+855)	452 (+31) *new record	24,983	532,462 (+19,008) (=0.804 % of the population)

• The PM hinted at the press conference after the weekly cabinet meeting that once the surge in the red (controlled) areas is getting better, there should be a consideration for businesses to resume their operations. The PM said the decision will be made balancing the health and economic factors.—Krungthep Turakij
• Thai MFA spokesperson said that after the CCSA notified the Thai MFA of the widespread of the so-called Indian COVID strain, the ministry has rejected to issue an EOI for foreign nationals from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal to enter the Kingdom from 10 May. The spokesperson said that this is a temporary measure and the doors remain opened for Thai nationals.—Thai Rath, The Nation Thailand
• Deputy Government spokesperson announced that the government will add 16 million people who is subscribing with social security to be on the list to get vaccination.—Thai Rath
• A CCSA committee headed by the National Security Council stated in the daily meeting that the tendency of infection in Greater Bangkok is not on decline, seeing a stable tendency in some areas. The NSC head has made a recommendation to avoid dining in with friends.–Matichon

Politics

• Today is the other big moment for student-led protestors as Criminal Court is going to decide whether to grant bails of the three main figures: Parit ‘Penguin’, Panupong ‘Mike’ and Ammy.
  • So far, Ammy has offered his conditions not mess with the monarchy or stir unrest as part of his bail request.–Matichon, Krungthep Turakij
• Yesterday saw a small gathering at the Bangkok CBD Skywalk with main figures of the protest joined in to request for bails of the other protestors who got detained without trail.—Thai Rath
• The deputy leader of the freshly established Kla Party came out to set the record straight that his comment calling for the government to revoke health welfare for those rejecting the government-sponsored vaccines are misinterpreted. Worawut Unjai said the recommendation was aimed at revoking the welfare in treating COVID only, not the entire health welfare.—Thai Rath
• A deputy chief of Senate’s Public Health Committee made a suggestion that since the current measures do not work, Doctor Chaloemchai suggested district lockdowns and mass vaccinations in order to help curb the spread in the Kingdom.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic:

• Export of Thai Durian to China has spiked thanks to the pre-order online platform that allows farmers to access buyers directly, set up by the Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry.  Two weeks ago, it took 9 hours to sell the first batch of 20 tonnes of durian.  On 9 May, it took only 45 minutes for the second batch of 25 tonnes of Durian to be sold out via the platform. This project is a cooperation between the Agriculture and Cooperatives and Commerce Ministries as well as agricultural cooperatives.  Sources:  The Nation Thansettakij
• Kobsak Pootrakool, the former minister to the PM’s Office who is now Bangkok Bank’s Senior Executive Vice President, suggested that the current government curb the third wave of COVID-19 infection quickly, speed up vaccination, reopen the country to tourism and then roll out incentives to stimulate investments.  Kobsak advised the government to apply Phuket’s vaccination model to the rest of the country since the island is now administering 7 million doses in 7 days.  The government must also try its best to prevent a fourth wave of infection, otherwise additional borrowing to rehabilitate the economy may be inevitable.  Former Commerce and Energy Minister Sontirat Sontijorawong suggests the Thai government establish a fund to help struggling restaurants similarly to those set up in the United States.  Sources:  Bangkok Post, Khao Sod
• The Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) met with the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to discuss the possibility of allowing SMEs to place purchase orders and invoices as loan collaterals.  This will be achieved through the use of digital technology, which is part of the TCC’s plans to revive the economy from COVID-19.   This is a move to help struggling SMEs have better liquidity to survive the pandemic.  Source:  Bangkok Post  Krungthep Turakij
• The Tourism Council of Thailand presented 2 proposals to the government to help maintain employment in the tourism sector, or risk losing 2-2.5 million jobs as most tourism businesses the liquidity to survive for only 3 months.  These proposals include the Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation helping TCT members to secure soft loan, and monthly salary co-payment scheme.  Source: Bangkok Post
• The Thailand Industry Sentiment Index (TISI) in April dropped to 84.3 points, notably the lowest in 8 months, according to the survey conducted by Federation of Thai Industries.  This is attributable to concerns in the business sector on the severity of the current COVID-19 outbreak.  The FTI foresees dim economic prospect in Q3 of 3021 if the government cannot contain the outbreak.  It will discuss with the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking on plans to speed up vaccine distribution to help the government’s inoculation program.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Fees for the cross-border fund transfers between Thailand’s PromptPay and Singapore’s PayNow systems may be lowered in the future if transaction volume is high, said the Bank of Thailand.  Since the system was launched on 29 April, there were around 3000 transactions using the cross border remittance service, in which the fee is 150 Baht per transaction.  This service is part of the ASEAN Connectivity project.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• A raise in foreign ownership quotas for condominiums from 49 percent to 70-80 percent should be allowed in specific locations and capped at units priced higher than 5 million Baht to reserve supply priced lower than 5 million Baht for Thais, according to the Real Estate Information Center.  This is in line with the government’s plan to promote Thailand as a second home by attracting foreigners to buy residential units under both freehold and leasehold contracts.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 10 May 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
1,630	85,005	1,151/ 389	55,208 (at 64.95%)	56,142	1,296,440 (+22,774) (= 1.764 %  of the population)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
1,622 [1,321 (get tested in hospital) + 301 (active case finding)]	8 (in SQ)	29,376 [9,428  in field hospital]	19,574 (+565)	421 (+22)	24,339	513,454 (+43,400) (=0.655 % of the population)

• A CCSA committee headed by the head of National Security Council made an observation this morning that the surge in Greater Bangkok Area is deescalating in active case finding group. Meanwhile, the infection rate nationally is on decline.—Thai Rath  
• Thai Chamber of Commerce, though was put on hold by the government to sort out vaccine by themselves, discussed with JFCCT (Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce in Thailand) to procure alternative vaccines. Thai Chamber of Commerce asked each foreign Chamber of Commerce to get vaccine information used in their country and has oversupplied of vaccine. Once they got more information from the JFCCT, they will bring this to the Thai MFA asking the ministry to use diplomatic relations to get the oversupplied vaccines to inoculate Thai citizen.—Krungthep Turakij
• As mainland government vowed to vaccinate their citizen globally, a media with close ties to Chinese Embassy inquired Chinese chargé d’affaires to Thailand and got the confirmation that “Chinese and Thai authorities have discussed for several times. Today, Thai authority informed us that though Thailand is in vaccine deficit, considering the bilateral relations which is like the same family, Chinese citizen in Thailand will get vaccinations in late May”. The media said that Chinese authority has asked Thailand to spare a part of 500 thousands doses of SinoVac that Chinese government has given to Thailand to inoculate Chinese citizen in the Kingdom.–PPTV
• The COVID-recovered Samut Sakhon Governor revealed that there are still some state officials allowing migrant workers to get smuggled into Greater Bangkok areas as the industrial province found some factories to have illegal migrants tested COVID positive.—Prachachat Turakij
  • CCSA spokesperson said that since early 2021, there have been more than 10 thousands illicit entries into the Kingdom and that the CCSA will focus on this movement of people as potential new cluster.—Manager Online
  • Immigration Police affirms that the authority has been keeping close eyes on the border and illicit immigration.—Thai Rath

Politics

• The unity of the coalition remains strong as ruling Democrat leader Jurin made a clear statement that they third largest ruling party will not leave the coalition. The statement came after an MP came out to request the party to leave the government considering the unethical questions that might rise from sharing the power with Deputy Agriculture Minister Thammanat. The party leader said the minister’s issue should remain in the main ruling party problem.—Krungthep Turakij, Prachachat Turakij
• On the other hand, the unity within the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) seems to be shaken:
  • With the constitutional Court verdict to steer clear of Deputy Agriculture Minister Thammanat statuses in politics, observers can expect the power struggles in upcoming annual PPRP convention. It is widely reported that Thammanat wants to have the PPRP secretary-general seat and thus, securing him a ministerial or Deputy Interior portfolio. The ploy, however, is not a bed of roses as he will face an opposition from the other faction in the party. The seat might be lost to Deputy Labour Minister Narumon who has just entered politics and hence, less corruption-related legal cases.—Prachachat Turakij
  • The sentiment against the Minister may have an impact on former Police Chief Chakthip to run for the Bangkok gubernatorial seat as Thammanat (PPRP Deputy head) has been assigned to be the campaign manager of the ‘independent’ candidate.—Krungthep Turakij
• An MP from the main Opposition Pheu Thai Party held a press briefing on the US Embassy imports of Pfizer vaccines to the Kingdom with Thai authority has no knowledge of the issue. The vocal MP said that the embassy violated Thai laws. The MP believed that there are some people outside the embassy got the vaccines.—Krungthep Turakij
• Politicians under the former economic tzar Somkid jatusripithak wing who left politics and PPRP due to intra-party conflicts joined hands in making political comments:
  • Former Energy Minister and PPRP secretary-general Sondhirat recommended the government to follow the Biden administration in compensating restaurants closed during lockdowns and setting up a fund to get the Service sector going.–Matichon
  • Former PM Office Minister Kobsak Pootrakul has expressed his concerns that Thailand may suffer a long recession. He voiced recommendation to the PM asking the health professionals to take charge of the situation. He said the current measure is not beneficial economically.–Matichon
• The criminal court is going to decide whether to approve bail requests by three main figures of the student-led protests. Parit ‘Penguin’, Panupong ‘Mike’ and Ammy faith will be decided by the court tomorrow as they have been detained without trail dur to the protests on 19 eptember last year.–Matichon

Analysis/ opinion

• With ousted and self-exiled former PM Thaksin made a constant appearance to a Q&A session on Clubhouse, it is believed that Thaksin is in the process of rebranding the main Opposition Pheu Thai Party. The rebranding which is highlighting Thaksin as professional administrator came after former Chief Strategist left the party. With Thaksin joining the cutting-edge application like Club house, it could be read as an attempt from Pheu Thai Party to compete in gaining votes from the fresh Move Forward Party and resuming its alpha status in the Opposition.—Thai Rath, Krungthep Turakij
• In the third surge, the PM is trying to take the lead on every committee making sure everything is under his ‘single command’ scheme. This perilous move will be a test of PM capacity in taking control of the situation of the most severe surge thus far.
• An international security pundit from Chulalongkorn University outlined nine crises surrounding the Prayut administration and said that without the ‘special force’ the PM will not be in position. The nine crises are
  1. The vaccine crisis which arose from the government decline to join COVAX scheme and resulted in getting insufficient vaccines;
  2. The economic crisis as the prolonged surge could make the middle class become lower income people, should there is the fourth surge;
  3. The poor and unemployed crisis due to the lack of social safety net;
  4. The legitimacy crisis from the questionable constitution and unity within the coalition;
  5. The lack of confidence crisis due to the lack of competency in curbing the pandemic;
  6. The protests crisis which may see people joining the protest from economic than political rationales;
  7. The Justice crisis from the Thammanat case;
  8. The younger-generation crisis from inter-generational conflicts and younger-generations seeing no economic prospect;
  9. The Myanmar crisis: should the anti-coup movement in Myanmar is successful, there will be a transnational democratic wave to drive military out of politics in Thailand.—Prachachat Turakij

Economic:

CPTPP

• The cabinet granted the International Economic Policy Committee headed by DPM Don Pramudwinai another 50 days, due on 25 June, to make a recommendation on whether Thailand should join CPTPP.  DPM Don dismissed the claim that the government had secretly consented for Thailand to accede to the CPTPP.  Originally, the Committee was required to submit its recommendations to the cabinet on 25 April following a 90-day extension from earlier this year.   The Committee decided to seek further extension as the 8 subcommittees needed more time to consult with stakeholders in order to deliver comprehensive recommendations.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• DPM Don provided the following timeline regarding CPTPP: 1) The Committee will wrap up all aspects of the studies within June; 2) the cabinet consider the Committee’s recommendations in July; 3) if the consensus is for Thailand to join the negotiation, the government must acknowledge the various issues and negotiation tactics and 4) once the negotiation is completed in August, the results will be reported to the parliament for final consideration.  The DPM emphasized that the negotiation is not an immediate commitment to join the CPTPP as the negotiations for any trade pacts usually last for many years.  Source:  Matichon
• Charoen Pokphand Group had issued a statement denying its involvement in the CPTPP following allegations on social media that the trade deal is the conglomerate’s brainchild.  Source:  Thansettakij

Tourism

• Thailand plans to waive its mandatory quarantine for vaccinated visitors to 10 provinces, including Bangkok, from 1 October onward and is seeing to it that at least 70 percent of the residents in each province is inoculated.  The government will first push ahead with reopening Phuket through the sandbox model on 1 July.  The new plan could draw 3.5 million tourists this year, generating 298 billion Baht in revenue.  Source:  Reuters
• Hospitality market analyst firm STR disclosed that the resurgence of COVID-19 and slow vaccination rollout are reducing the likelihood of Thailand reopening to international tourists during the peak season.  Implementing the Phuket Sandbox model on 1 July is ambitious.  It advised Thailand to consider two strategies to restart international travels, such as the Maldives Model wherein isolated islands offer testing protocols together with accelerated public vaccination.  Another option is for the government to offer tourism industry direct financial support to retain employment, similarly to Australia’s Tourism Aviation Network Support program and Singapore’s Jobs Support Scheme.  Source: Bangkok Post

Others

• The Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) noted that if new pandemic infections do not slow down within 7- 10 days, the government might need to impose a lockdown similarly to last year to curb the spread.  If imposed, the lockdown would incur an economic loss of 200 – 300 billion Baht monthly.  It would cause Q2 GDP to contract and the government’s fiscal injection would be timely.  The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) said the manufacturing sector has been coping with the third wave of infection well, partly because of the pickup in export as global demands increase.  As such, manufacturing has replaced tourism and services sectors as Thailand’s economic driver.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Ministry of Finance (MoF) expects the government’s 6 new stimulus packages worth 240 billion Baht to boost GDP by 1 percent since it could generate spending of 400 billion Baht into the economy.  This could help Thailand’s GDP growth to surpass MoF’s forecast of 2.3 percent.  Among the packages is the Ying Chai Ying Dai scheme, which will be finalized by the cabinet this week.  The package offers cashback e-vouchers at a rate of 10-15 percent of spending with a maximum limit of 7,000 Baht per person.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Ministry of Commerce granted approvals to 15 foreign companies under the Foreign Business Act (FBA) to operate in Thailand in April, mostly from Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan.  Their investments totaling 3.08 billion Baht generate employments for 277 Thais in sectors such as petroleum extraction, logistics and mass transit services, advertising and marketing.  From January – April 2021, some 75 foreign companies were given approval to operate in Thailand with an investment value of 7.96 billion Baht.  Most are investments in Thailand’s target industries and infrastructure projects, such as the high-speed rail.  Sources:  Prachachat Turakij  The Nation

Headlines summary as of 7 May 2021

The Embassy is calling for donations of money and items to help support frontline workers at King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, more information in the flyer attached.

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,044	78,855	1,070/ 367	49,172 (at 62.36%)	49,992	1,201,258 (+33,359) (= 1.814 %  of the population)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,040 [1,820 (get tested in hospital) + 220 (active case finding)]	4 (in SQ)	29,320 [8,979 in field hospital]	16,917 (+869)	336 (+27)	22,947	450,524  (+16,410) (=0.681 % of the population)

•   The CCSA came out to confirm that foreigners are included in Thailand’s vaccination plan. CCSA spokesperson reiterated that foreigners are included in Thailand’s vaccination plan, clarifying recent reports that said Thais have priority in the first phase of inoculations. —National News Bureau of Thailand

•   In a bid to help curb the spread of the pandemic, the government is hosting a national Buddhist chanting ceremony on 11 May. The Prime Minister Office Minister said that the ceremony can help boost the morale of the people and will help bless the land.—Thai News Agency

•   Deputy PM and Public Health minister Anutin posted on his FB Page saying that after a meeting with Pfizer company, the American vaccine producer will sort out 20 million doses to the Kingdom starting from 3rd to 4th quarter this year.—Anutin Chavirakul

•   Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) announced that from 4 to 6 May, the BMA has inoculated 3,649 people in the highly-infectious district of Khlong Toey.—The Standard

Politics

•   The Constitutional Court verdict that the Australian judicial authority does not applicable on Thai sovereignty remains on top of the bulletin:

•   Deputy head of Palang Pracharat Party came out to say that the party will not set up a committee to probe the Deputy Agriculture Minister as the incident occurred before the minister joined PPRP.—Matichon

•   Opposition Move Forward Party is planning to file a case against the National Anti-Corruption Commission.—Thai Rath

•   A former Constitutional Court judge came out to endorse the court unanimous decision to keep Mr Thammanat in his representative and ministerial positions. The judge said the main problem of this case is not the legal but emotional one. He hinted that should the Opposition wish to proceed on with this, they should file the case using politician code of conduct related laws.—Krungthep Turakij

•   Yesterday, a main figure of the student-led protest Panusaya ‘Rung’ got her bail request granted by court on three conditions: not to dishonour the monarchy ever again, must not leave the Kingdom and must be present in every court hearings.—Prachachat Turakij

•   Despite earlier expectation, the court has deferred to consider whether to grant bails for Parit ‘Penguin’ and Ammy, two other protest leaders to be on 11 May, citing the two have not finished their 14 days quarantine scheme.—Krungthep Turakij

•   The issue of Thailand joining the multilateral trading scheme CPTPP is still on many people’s attention:

•   The government spokesperson dismissed the online conversations which said the cabinet had decided to join the CPTPP. The spokesperson said that the cabinet had the resolution to defer the decision by 50 days.—Thai Rath

•   The freshly established Thai Sarng Thai Party led by former Pheu Thai Chief Strategist Sudarat Keyuraphan issued a statement calling for the Parliament to join hands in opposing the government to join CPTPP as there are still unclear points and potential adverse effects on Thai local businesses.—Thai Rath

•   The Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Don said in a press conference that the understanding that Thailand had entered CPTPP is a fake information. The top diplomat said that the relevant offices will draft all the reservations and measures in need to compensate the adverse effects. The cabinet will decide on the conditions, then to negotiation before getting the Parliament approval.—Ministry of Foreign Affairs

•   The ruling Democrat Party is going to hold a meeting on 12 May to look into the Constitutional Amendment proposals, stressing on the needs for the PM to hold the status of the MP.—Krungthep Turakij

Analysis/ opinion

•   Army reporter Wassana Nanuam gave her analysis on the court verdict saying that the stake of getting the Minister out is too high for the PM and his inner circle. The reporter said that should there is too much opposition against him, Thammanat has already planned to have his wife take over his positions. The verdict paves ways for him to become the PPRP secretary-general and, thus, minister.—Ringside การเมือง

•   A media is naming Deputy PM and Energy Minister Suppattanapong as PM Prayut’ right hand’s man. The minister has been the key person in designing the government flagship economic stimulus packages. He is also leading government’s four government main projects in attracting foreign investment and also the Phuket Sandbox, the prototype project in reopening the Kingdom amid the pandemic. Under Supattanapong direction, he prefers to work with a big data technology company, the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council and people from Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University.—Prachachat Turakij

Economic:

Tourism

Tourism and Sports Ministry (MoST) insists on kick-starting the Phuket Tourism Sandbox scheme on 1 July as planned.  MoST believes it is possible to bring the number of COVID-19 infection in Phuket down to zero prior to the reopening, while affirming that 70 percent of the Phuket residents (470,000 people) will also be vaccinated on time despite the island having fully inoculated only 100,000 people to date.  MoST is to push ahead with the opening of 10 areas under the sandbox scheme by Q4 of this year and also maintains its goal of attracting 3-4 million international tourist arrivals in 2021.  To this end, it is deliberating establishing the Tourism Fund, for which 300 Baht will be collected from foreign tourists from January 2022 onwards to assist tourism industry in coping with future emergencies.

MoST has postponed travel bubble negotiations with Singapore, Vietnam, Laos, Hong Kong and Malaysia until it can contain the pandemic outbreak.  The requirement is that Thailand brings down the number of daily infection to the hundreds by the end of May and below 200 by mid-June.  Sources:  Bangkok Post Krungthep Turakij, 7 May 2021

Others

Average fuel consumption contracted by -7.7 percent to 138.9 million litres per day in Q1 due to the resurgence of COVID-19, according to Ministry of Energy.  Jet fuel saw the most YoY decline by -74 percent, followed by a -31.2 percent contraction of compressed natural gas usage.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Consumer Confidence Index fell to a record low of 46 points in April -the lowest since the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) launched the survey 22 years ago.  Similarly, people’s Happiness Index also plunged to the lowest in 16 years, to 30.6 points.  The declines reflect Thais’ concerns about the pandemic, political instability and slow vaccination rollout.  Consumer confidence is anticipated to be on the downward trend well into May.  If the outbreak stretches beyond June, the UTCC foresees an economic loss of 400-600 billion Baht, with annual GDP expansion reduced to 0-1.5 percent.  Sources:  Bangkok Post Thai Rath

Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) raised its forecast for export growth this year to 6-7 percent from 3-4 percent due to the recovery of major trading partners and the rise of industrial product exports such as automobiles, electrical appliances and oil-related products.  Obstacles to export included shipping container shortage, traffic congestion at Laem Chabang sea port and labour shortage resulting from foreign workers being unable to return to Thailand due to border restrictions.  Source: Bangkok Post

Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) will discuss with the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking on supporting the government to administer 100 million vaccine doses to the population before the end of 2021.  FTI noted that vaccination is the key determinant of Thailand’s economic growth this year, more so than the government’s stimulus packages.  Sources: Bangkok Post Manager Online

Headlines summary as of 6 May 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
1,911	76,811	1,073/ 356	46,795 (at 60.92%)	47,948	1,167,719 (+17,115) (= 1.764 %  of the population)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
1,902 [1,749 (get tested in hospital) + 153 (active case finding)]	9 (in SQ)	29,680 [8,743 in field hospital]	16,048 (+739)	336 (+18)	22,947	434,114  (+11,603) (=0.655 % of the population)

• CCSA has confirmed that Thai health authority detected the so-called ‘Brazilian strains’ in the ASQ. CCSA affirms that the Thai ASQ scheme can contain the strains within its quarantine system.—Reuters
• The CCSA spokesperson said that from 5 April to 5 May, the health authority had done 42,251 case findings and found the confirmed cases at 3.9% or “in every 100 people in Bangkok, there are four people with COVID”.
• Today, one million more doses of Chinese Sinovac Covid vaccine has reached Thailand. So far, Thailand has imported 3.5 million doses. It is reported that the Kingdom expects 500,000 more doses on 14 May and 2 millions more doses by the end of May.—Prachachat Turakij
• A media did a report on the mystery of whether there have been any imports of Pfizer vaccine into Thailand. The report cited diplomats from Southeast Asia and Central Asia hinting that should there is an embassy going to vaccinate its staff, it could be done without going through Thai authority. The report also put a social media widely shared American CDC’s vaccination record card which showed that the US Embassy in Bangkok had received the vaccines.—Krungthep Turakij
  • Meanwhile, the US Embassy in Bangkok informed the press that they are collecting information to response to the inquiry.—ThaiPBS

Politics

• The Constitutional Court unanimously made the verdict that legal jurisdiction in Australia does not apply in Thai sovereignty, making the Deputy Agriculture Minister Thammanat remains qualified for representative and ministerial positions.—all media outlet
  • Some online users raised the precedented Council of State legal advice back  in 1982 which stated that any Thai person who was sentenced with jail term is not eligible to apply for MP.—Matichon
• The main figures of the student-led protestor are wishing to get their bail request approved, but:
  • The court will only decide the request of Panusaya ‘Rung’ as the court said Parit ‘Penguin’ and Chaiamorn ‘Ammy’ needed to finished their 14 days quarantine before presenting in court. The two were detained in the same room with the Covid-positive activist—Prachachat Turakij
  • Thai Correction Department affirmed that Thai activist lawyer, Arnon Nampa, jailed without bail since February on charges of insulting monarchy, has contracted the coronavirus in custody.—Reuters
• Piyarat ‘Toto’, the head of WeVo (protest guards) got temporary release from a local court. He has to be on an electronic monitoring (EM) bracelet, barred from overseas travel. Piyarat was detained in prison for 31 days.—Krungthep Turakij
• The ghost of multilateral free trade arrangement has returned to Thailand as there was a reportedly ‘leaked’ document showing that the cabinet approved the resolution to authorise the PM to enter CPTPP. #NoCPTPP got media attention both online and on-air.—Prachachat Turakij
• The Digital Economy Minister informed the press that the cabinet has approved to postpone the enforcement of Personal Data Protection Act for one year due to the pandemic.—Krungthep Turakij
• The Royal Gazette has published that the Parliamentary Session will be opened on 22 May.—The Royal Gazette

Economic:

CPTPP 

• Government spokesperson Ratchada confirmed that the cabinet meeting on 5 May did not approve of Thailand joining the negotiation for CPTPP accession.  She said the cabinet only approved of a 50-day extension for the International Economic Policy Committee to consult with other relevant agencies to provide recommendations on this matter.  The remark was intended to debunk a comment made on FTA Watch’s facebook page that claimed the cabinet had consented PM Prayut to sign the letter of intent for Thailand to join the negotiation for CPTPP accession at its 5 May meeting, which went on to unleash a torrent of criticisms on social media.  Source:  Prachachat TurakijDaily News The Nation 

Cabinet’s Decisions, 5 May 2021 

• The cabinet has agreed in principle to allocate 245 billion Baht of the 1-trillion Baht loan to launch a suite of stimulus packages that will inject 473 billion Baht into the economy to combat the third COVID-19 outbreak.  The packages will be approved by the cabinet in the coming weeks, including: 

Urgent, short-term projects worth 85.5 billion Baht, comprising: 

1.       Rao Chana cash handout program will be extended for 2 weeks.  It will continue to give 1,000 Baht weekly to some 32.9 million low-income earners.  Total budget:  67 billion Baht 

2.      Mor 33 Rao Rak Kan Phase 1 will be extended for 2 weeks.  It provides unemployment compensation of 1,000 Baht weekly to 9.27 million people who are insured under social security section 33.  Total budget: 18.5 billion Baht 

Long-term projects running from July – Dec 2021 with budget totalling 140 billion Baht, comprising: 

3.      Phase 3 of the subsidy program for low-income state welfare cardholder will see the government providing 1,200 Baht for 6 months to 13.6 million.  Total budget: 16.4 billion Baht 

4.      The subsidy program for low-income state welfare cardholder will also be extended to 2.5 million people with special needs at 1,200 Baht for 6 months.  Total budget: 3 billion Baht 

5.      Kon La Kreung Phase 3 subsidy program targets 31 million middle and high-income earners.  The government will provide a subsidy of 150 Baht per person per day for 6 months (3,000 Baht in total) to spend at registered shops and restaurants.  Total budget:  93 billion Baht 

6.      Ying Chai Ying Dai program – the government will provide e-vouchers valued at 5,000 Baht per person per day for spending at shops/operators that are registered for VAT.  The spending must take place from August to Dec 2021, targeting 31 million people. 

Others key measures: 

• Cuts in electricity and water charges for in May and June.  Total budget: 10 billion Baht. 
• Approval of 20 billion Baht low-interest rate loans from state-owned banks 
• State-owned banks to extend grace period for principal re-payment until year-end 
• Approval of 12.6 billion baht for the Health Ministry to handle the third wave of infections 
• Extension of tax incentives for companies hiring former prisoners for a year until end-2021 

Sources:  Prachachart Turakij  Krungthep Turakij Bangkok Post The Nation 

Others 

• The Bank of Thailand (BOT) kept the policy interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.50 percent for an 8^th consecutive meeting.  BOT reiterated that the limited policy room should be preserved to be used at the most effective time.  BOT identified the vaccine as the main economic driver that will help tourism and SMEs recover quickly.  Sources:  Bangkok Post  Bank of Thailand Press Release 
• While the BOT will officially revise its 2021 GDP figure in June, it has slashed forecast to a growth of 1-2 percent, down from its previous estimate of 3 percent.  In the base scenario, GDP is forecasted to grow by 2 percent if 100 million vaccine doses are administered this year, herd immunity is achieved in Q1 of 2022 and tourist arrival is 1.2 million.  In the worse-than-base-scenario, GDP will expand by 1.5 percent with 64.6 million vaccine doses distributed, herd immunity attained in Q3 of 2022 and tourist arrival totals 1 million.  In the worst-case-scenario, GDP will grow by 1 percent if vaccine rollout is less than 64.6 million doses and herd immunity materialises in Q4 of 2022, for which the number of unemployed will tally 2.9 million.  The forecasts did not take into account the government’s stimulus packages.    Source:  Krungthep Turakij Bangkok Post 
• In Q1 of 2021, the Board of Investment (BOI) received investment applications for 401 projects worth 123.4 billion Baht.  Compared to 2020, the number of investment application rose by +14 percent and value by +80 percent.  Investment was propelled by applications filed for the medical sector, which grew YoY by over+ 100 times (valued at 18.4 billion) due to COVID-19, and electrics & electronics (E&E) sector that surged by +64 percent (17.4 billion Baht) as a result of work from home trends and factory relocation.  As for FDI, its investment value increased by +143 percent (valued at 61.98 billion) Baht through 191 projects.  The major FDI applicant was South Korea that invested ina large-scale joint venture in the medical sector. The EEC attracted 117 projects applications with investment value that increased by 39 percent YoY to total 64.4 billion baht.  Source:  Thansettakij  Bangkok Post 
• Inflation in April 2021 surged to the highest level in 8 months, by 3.41 percent YoY, according to the Ministry of Commerce.  This is attributable to the rise in global oil price and higher demands for pork, chicken and fresh vegetables that surged because of the long holidays in April.  Another factor is the expiration of the government’s subsidy programs for electricity and water bills.  For 2021, inflation is expected to range from 1.2 – 1.7 percent if GDP picks up to a 3.5-4.5 growth.  Sources:  MCOT Bangkok Post 
• The University of Thai Chamber of Commerce reported that modern trade sentiment index was 46.3 points in Q1 of 2021, the lowest level to ever be recorded since the launch of the index in Q3 of 2018.  The modern trade sentiment is poised to be remain subdued as a result of weakened purchasing power amid the prolonged Covid-19 crisis.  Source:  Bangkok Post 

Headlines summary as of 5 May 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,112	74,900	1,042/ 343	44,360 (at 59.23%)	46,037	1,150,564 (+44,493) (= 1.738 %  of the population)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,017 [1,955 (get tested in hospital) + 152 (active case finding)]	5 (in SQ)	30,222 [8,558 in field hospital]	15,309 (+789)	318 (+15)	22,794	422,511  (+29,965) (=0.638 % of the population)

• So far, there have been three emerging clusters in highly populated inner Bangkok districts:
  • Khlong Toei remains the main focus of the government and Bangkok Metropolitan Administration.
    • In an investigation, the CCSA has found that ‘Patient 0’ in Khlong Toei got the infection from the former cluster in Thong Lor.—Krungthep Turakij
  • Smaller communities within Rama IV-Wireless Road area is of concern as until 4 May there have been 1,586 confirmed cases (3.97 % positive rate out of 30,000 active case findings).
  • Communities along Northern Huai Khwang-Din Daeng districts as the two districts witnessed the highest record of COVID cases in Bangkok.
• Bangkok Post cited a Public Health Minister spokesperson and reported that the government “had no plans to give free vaccines to expats due to very limited vaccine stocks, so Thai people would be the first to get it.”.—Bangkok Post
• The CCSA deputy spokesperson informed press that the PM as the director of national CCSA has made himself the head of Greater Bangkok COVID Control Centre to coordinate the measures of 50 Bangkok districts.
• The deputy spokesperson of the government came out to reveal that the PM has ordered the Ministry of Digital Economy to look after the fake news regarding the COVID vaccines and gave a green light to prosecute anyone who aims to create confusion and turmoil in the society.—Krungthep Turakij
• The Secretary-general of the Thai FDA (Food and Drug Administration) dismissed the news that the FDA has approved the use of Moderna vaccine in Thailand. The FDA is now on the process of approving and expect to finalise within May.—Matichon
  • So far, the FDA has approved three vaccines [AstraZeneca, Sinovac and Johnson & Johnson]. And the two other vaccines from Bharat Biotech and Sputnik V are under the process of submitting documents.—Thai FDA Official Twitter
• The Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson came out to warn people who are planning to take ‘vaccine tour’ to get the Pfizer inoculation in the United States that they are facing a high risk of being rejected to enter the US as some state may impose a bar against the ‘vaccine tourists’.—Krungthep Turakij
  • Media started to pick up on private vaccine tour to the US and Serbia.—PPTV
• The Thai Anti-Fake News Centre came out to point out that a cutting edge medical facility MedPark opens for registration to get Moderna Vaccine is a fake news.—Manager Online

Politics

• It is another big moment for the Deputy Agriculture Minister Thammanat as the Constitutional Court is going to make its verdict on whether the minister jail terms in Australia for drug smuggling would render him nullified from minister and MP status. The court is scheduled to read the verdict from 3.00pm.–Matichon
  • The Minister said he will respect and abide by the ruling regardless of the verdict. If the verdict is positive for him, he will proceed with his political career. But if the verdict turn out to be negative for him, he will return to doing business. He will designate his lawyer to be present at the court on his behalf.—Krungthep Turakij
  • An Opposition main figure Sereepisuth Temeeyaves who filed the case to the Court came out to reveal the minister’s testament to a committee Sereepisuth led. The testament said Thammanat admitted that he was jailed in Australia for covering-up, not for drug smuggling. But as the head of the House committee Sereepisuth pointed out that Thammanat is not eligible for the ministerial position.—Krungthep Turakij
  • For a more complete saga of the minister and his famous quote “It was not heroin, it was flour” in English.—Sydney Morning Herald
  • Earlier, a former Constitutional Court judge came out to say that the minister jail terms aboard had nothing to do with Thai judiciary system.—The Standard
• Last night, ousted and self-exiled former PM Thaksin shook the political landscape using Club House application:
  • Thaksin said despite government denial, the American Pfizer vaccine has entered Thailand under Emergency Usage schemes and only a few will have access to the vaccine.–Matichon
    • FDA came out to dismiss the claim, saying that the FDA found no record of the imports after checking with the custom and Pfizer company.—Khao Sod
  • Thaksin also grilled Deputy PM Wissanu by saying he is feeling sorry the government legal pundit and that he apologised for bringing Wissanu into politics. Thaksin said Wissanu has been “very nasty” in manipulating the law.–Matichon
• Three main figures of the student-led protests who have been detained in jail before trial on Royal defamation charges have pledged not to touch upon the monarchy issue if their application for temporary release on bail are approved by the Court of Appeal on 6 May.—Krungthep Turakij
  • The same vow was made by two other main figures (Somyot and Jatupat ‘Pai’) who got their bail approved earlier on.—Thai Post
• Starting as an internet meme driven by vendetta against the elites, ‘Let’s Move Aboard’ Facebook Group (as of 5 May’s morning 760,000 members) is now under the government watchful eyes. The Digital Economy and Society (DES) Ministry has announced that its working panel is keeping an eye on any content violating the laws on sedition and lese majeste. The MDES Minister said that “most of the content generally provides useful information about studying and living abroad, which is a good thing and should be encouraged. But, several posts, while offering tips, were deemed to have a political agenda, with a perceived intent to cause divisions and offend the royal institution.”—Bangkok Post, The Nation, Prachachat Turakij
• A main ruling Palang Pracharat Party MP and the head of Lower House Affairs Committee called for the House Speaker to defer the Parliamentary session scheduled for the end of May as there is the third surge of the pandemic.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic:

• Chayotid Kridakon, the former head of JP Morgan Securities (Thailand), is currently an advisor to DPM Supattanapong, the government’s chief economic policy director.  Chayotid’s taskforce is crafting new package of incentives to attract long-term, high-net-worth retirees to Thailand since it is unlikely to welcome back 40 million tourists anytime soon.  New categories of visas will be offered in the proposed package, as will new incentives involving relaxation on the rules on foreign ownership of property. Foreign visa regulations relaxation will also be addressed, with the main opposition likely to be coming from the Immigration Department under the politically powerful Interior Ministry.  Slated for announcement in June, the new visa package is part of the “Regulatory Guillotine” program initiated by former DPM Somkid Jatusripak who resigned in July last year. The guillotine was picked up again by his replacement, DPM Supattanapong.  Chayotid’s push for deregulation is in part to improve Thailand’ Ease of Doing Business ranking.   Source: Asia Times
• Thailand remains the world’s number 1 exporter of Durian, boosted by FTAs, according to Ministry of Commerce.  Most remarkable is Thailand’s Durian export in Q1 of 2021 to China, which surged by 14 percent (valued at 186 million USD) due to the ASEAN-China FTA.  To date China is the top import market, constituting 88 percent of Thai Durian export.  Overall, Thailand’s Durian export to China in 2020 expanded by a whopping 79,300 percent compared to year 2003, when the FTA was enforced.  The implementation of RCEP is further envisaged to alllow Thai Durian to tap into the South Korean market.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij
• Thailand’s rice export nosedived by 23 percent YoY in Q1 of 2021 to 1.13 million tonnes due to its high price compared to Pakistan and Cambodia.  The high price is attributable  to the strong Baht, higher freight costs and lower domestic supply as a result of the drought.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij
• In the report Time to Immunity in Asia, Michael Spencer, the Chief Economist for Asia-Pacific at Deutsche Bank, forecasted that Thailand could reach herd immunity (ie: 70 percent of the population developing immunity), by the end of this year if the government speeds up the vaccination rollout by three times the current rate, or 190,000 shots per day.   At the current rate, where only 50 percent of the population is expected to be vaccinated by year-end, Thailand will achieve herd immunity in 2 years.  If local production of AstraZeneca vaccines begin as planned in June, Thailand’s vaccination rate could pick up and even surpass its regional peers.  Thailand has more incentives than other countries because of its reliance on tourism.  Source: Bangkok Post
• The Bank of Thailand recently conducted a survey on 188 hotels, of which 30 are Alternative State Quarantine, from 12-26 April.  Results show that 47 percent of them have liquidity to sustain their business only for 3 months.  Some 80 percent of the respondents noted that the third wave of COVID-19 is worse than the second wave, with 13 percent temporarily ceasing operations.  Average occupancy rate for hotels nationwide in May 2021 is expected at 9 percent.  Employment in this sector is at 54 percent compared to pre-COVID period.  Source:  Thansettakij

Headlines summary as of 4 May 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
1,763	72,788	1,009/ 311	42,474 (at 58.35%)	43,925	1,106,071 (+6,611) (= 1.671 % 0f the population)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
1,750 [1,519 (get tested in hospital) + 231 (active case finding)]	13 (in SQ)	30,011 [8,558 in field hospital]	14,520 (+562)	303 (+27)	22,411	392,546  (+5,099) (=0.593 % of the population)

• Now, there are more emerging clusters in greater Bangkok:
  • The concerning cluster in the highly-populated Klong Toey district is on every bulletins. Bangkok Governor said after a meeting with the PM in the special CCSA meeting that the PM has expressed concerns and the BMA will set up two vaccination centers at Tesco Lotus Rama IV and Klong Toey Wittaya School aiming to inoculate 1,000 people a day. The BMA is going to conduct active case findings at 1,000 tests a day and by 19 May, the BMA plans to conduct one-fourth of the district population (20,000 out of 85,000 to 90,000).—Prachachat Turakij
  • Bangkok governor has pledged that the spread in Klong Toey could be in controlled within two weeks.—Krungthep Turakij
  • CCSA is also alarming the residents of Embassy’s neighboring Bon Kai district as there have been at least 60 confirmed cases to date. The CCSA is planning to conduct at least 4,000 active case findings in the area.—Prachachat Turakij
  • CCSA told in a press conference today that in the Pathumwan District, there are 10 confirmed cases in Soi Polo community and 8 cases in Pra Jen community.–CCSA
  • In the suburb Samut Prakan province, there are emerging clusters in factories. One factory is found to have 128 confirmed cases.—Thai Rath

Politics

• The Justice Minister has returned from 14 days self-isolation as the Songkran event he held has made more than 50 people got infected with the virus. The minister showed his two negative test results.—Thai Rath, Prachachat Turakij
  • The Justice Minister unveiled that his aide, who was guilty of having someone else to sit in an exam for, has submitted a letter of resignation from all positions.—Thai Rath
• As cleaners in the Government House have been tested positive for COVID-19, the cabinet will change the meeting venue from the main building to the annex.—Thai Rath

Analysis/ opinion

• It is believed that Newin Chidchob is not the only key persons in Bhumjaithai Party to guide the direction of the second largest ruling party whether to remain in the coalition. It is reported that  the PM is pressuring Saksayam Chidchob (the Transport Minister, who got the virus from the alleged visit to nightclub) to resign in an attempt to boost the government popularity hard hit by the third wave resurrection. It is also reported that the extension of the sky train concessions is another conflict epicentre between the Chidchobs and the inner-circle of the PM. In Bhumjaithai Party, there are at least three more main figures: Public Health Minister Anutin, Tourism Minister Piphat and Deputy Transport Minister Virasak. According to the report, the three are not in deep conflict with the PM as the Chidchobs. The prospect of Bhumjaithai withdrawing from the coalition due to Saksayam case is not politically shrewd for the party as the party has lost allies with Pheu Thai Party.—Krungthep Turakij

Australia

• The Embassy’s announcement on the Australian vaccine roll-out assistance to Thailand was picked up by media.– (Matichon, Post Today, Daily News, TNN, and Bangkok Post 4 May 2021)

Economic:

APEC

• With Thailand set to host APEC meetings in 2022, Commerce Ministry’s Department of Trade Negotiations (DTN) is assigned to oversee the trade agenda.  It will be organising 3 meetings including, 1) Ministers Responsible for Trade Meeting (MRT); 2) Committee on Trade and Investment: (CTI); and 3) trade and investment working committee meeting.  For the MRT, Thailand aims to set the direction for the recovery of trade in Asia-Pacific in the midst of COVID-19 outbreak, support the WTO and establish trade and investment policies under new normal standards.  For the CTI meeting, it will focus on Rules of Origin guidelines, the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), the Market Access Group, the Group on Services.   Thailand is also working on the 2022 APEC themes, touching on topics ranging from trade and investment facilitation, digital trade (ASEAN Single Window & ASEAN Payment Connectivity), e-commerce, local product tourism, sustainable development, capacitating SMEs and BCG Economy.  Once finalized, the DTN will present the themes to Foreign Affairs Ministry, which is the main agency for APEC.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij  Thai Post

Others

• Thailand’s trade with it 18 FTA partners in Q1 of 2021 expanded by 10 percent to total 81 billion USD – surpassing Thailand’s trade with the world economies, which grew by only 6 percent, according to Commerce Ministry.  Two-way trade has increased significantly, such as with China (+26 percent), Australia (+30 percent) India (17 percent).  Exports rose notably in sectors such as agricultural products (rubber, animal feed and frozen chicken, vegetable and fruits) and industrial products (automotive and electronic appliances).  Source:  Naew Na
• The value of Thailand’s border and transit trade (transport of goods through more than 1 country) rose by +19.3 percent YoY to 384 billion Baht in Q1 of 2021, driven by trade with Malaysia and rising demand for Thai rubber for glove production.  Export from Thailand had increased by +20.5 percent YoY to tally 226 billion Baht and import by +17.7 percent to 158 billion Baht, resulting in a trade surplus of 68.4 billion Baht.  While Thailand’s border trade with Malaysia rose by +26.7 percent, trade with Myanmar fell by -7 percent.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• A virtual meeting between the Finance Ministers and central bank governors from ASEAN and ASEAN+3 (China, Japan and S. Korea) held yesterday established that world economies will see a rapid, albeit uneven recovery following global inoculation.  The forecasts, made by the Asian Development Bank, IMF and ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, revealed that the Thai economy will grow by +2.3 and +4.8 percent in 2021 and 2022, respectively  The global economy is set to expand by +6 and +4 percent; and ASEAN+3 economies by +6.7 and +4.9 percent.  The meeting agreed on similar policy recommendations to help the region combat the pandemic, such as 1) administering the vaccines quickly 2) promoting digital transformation 3) supporting domestic resources 4) improving tax systems and 5) advancing green economy.  Sources:  Bangkok Post MCOT  Thai Post
• The Export-Import Bank of Thailand (EXIM Bank) will offer loans with low interest and extended grace period to boost investments in Electric Vehicles, medical health and other S-Curve industries.  The scheme offers a maximum loan of 100 million Baht for each applicant with an annual interest rate of 2 percent for the first 2 years and concessional rates in subsequent years, to be shouldered by EXIM Bank or the government.  In exchange, applicants must increase their export proportion to at least 10 percent in the first 3 years of the loan, and to 30-50 percent from the 5^th to 7^th year.  Source:  Bangkok Post Krungthep Turakij
• Thai Airways is in a dispute with its labour union over who should act as administrators and execute the company’s debt-rehabilitation program.  Changes to the candidate line-up must be made before the airline’s creditors meet on May 12 to decide on the rehabilitation plan. Only creditors eligible to vote on it are authorised to amend either the plan or its administrators.  Source:  Bangkok Post