Headlines summary as of 30 April 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
1,583	65,153	871/ 250	36,254 (at 55.64%)	34,707	1,075,756 (1.625 % 0f the population)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
1,579 [1,366 (get tested in hospital) + 213 (active case finding)]	4 (in SQ)	28,696 [7,289 in field hospital]	12,005 (+417)	203 (+15)	21,874	335,858 (0.507 % of the population)

•      In the press briefing yesterday, the CCSA has issued tougher lockdown measures in a bid to curb the COVID-19. The order to escalate the pandemic control is on the Royal Gazette and has the preamble saying that as people has not been careful enough, the third wave hit.—all media outlet Royal Gazette

•      The details of the fresh restriction is in the graphic attached, as prepared by Thai Public Relations Department.

•      Until now, all 77 provinces in Thailand have issued an order for everyone to wear a face mask when one is in public areas. And there have been 15 provinces asking people not to leave their residence at night. (Not a curfew)—Krungthep Turakij

Politics

•      After a big virtual push calling for the bail of activists on hunger strike over royal insults, the criminal court denied the bail requests. The court denied seven protest leaders bail, two of whom have deteriorating health from more than a month of hunger strikes.—all media outlet and Reuters

•      Minister of Higher Education issued an order to Thammasat University Rector, asking the university to inquire professors who helped Thammasat student activists getting bail. The order cited a request from a right-wing organisation to scrutinise the professors.—Matichon

•      Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha reportedly rescind the order on the allocation of cabinet ministers from various coalition parties to supervise provinces.—Thai Rath

•      On 5 May, the Constitutional Court will read its verdict on Deputy Agriculture Minister Thammanat status as minister and MP as he was sentenced with jail term in Australia on drug smuggling. The minister said he does not concern with the verdict and will live everyday to the fullest.—Thai Rath

•      With the hints of House Dissolution getting more obvious, Interior Minister has issued an order to every governors to submit a request for a 45,000 million THB budget to revitalise the economy. This is seen as budget to help gain constituencies. Apart from the budget, there are more under the Interior Ministry authority which is believed to be as great as 120,000 million THB.—Prachachat

Economic:

• Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) will pursue its plan to import vaccines for private companies, despite the government’s emphasis that it is able to procure sufficient doses of vaccines (100 million) by year-end to inoculate 70 percent of the population and achieve herd immunity.  Moreover, the Thai Chamber of Commerce admitted that the private sector’s vaccine procurement is likely to be delayed to Q4 of 2021 due to global supply constraints, which is the same as the government’s vaccine import timeframe. The government insists it is open to the private sector importing vaccines but must comply with the regulations established by the Public Health Ministry.  Source: Thai Rath Bangkok Post 

GDP Forecast

• CIMB Bank has cut Thailand’s 2021 GDP projection to 2.2 from 2.6 percent in light of the recent COVID-19 outbreak, but does not foresee a contraction because export is set to grow by +10 percent.  The economy will pick up in Q3 if vaccination is sped up and restrictions are eased, which will lead to a spike in domestic consumption.  If vaccination rollout is slow and infection number surges, the Thai economy could grow as little as 0.7 percent.  Sources:  Krungthep Turakij The Nation

• Ministry of Finance (MoF) had revised Thailand’s GDP forecast for 2021 to a +2.3 percent growth instead of +2.8 percent and slashed foreign arrival figures by 70 percent to 2 million as well as tourism revenue by 49 percent to 170 billion Baht.  However, MoF anticipates export will expand by +11 percent due to recovering global economies.  Thailand’s own economic recovery is projected to start in Q3-Q4, coinciding with vaccination rollout.

• To spur the economy, MoF is speeding up fiscal injection through the 1-trillion Baht loan, of which some 237 billion Baht remained unused.  As of 22 April, some 762 billion Baht was approved for spending, of which 649 billion Baht (85.4 percent) was already disbursed.  By the end of FY 2021, the government plans for 950 billion Baht to be disbursed.  The remaining 50 billion Baht will be disbursed by FY 2022. Furthermore, the government will finalise in May a roster of stimulus packages amounting to over 200 billion Baht and measures to reduce living costs worth some 100 billion Baht.  Source:  Daily News Naew Na Bangkok Post

Tourism

• Tourism Council of Thailand insisted that alternative vaccine procurement by private hospitals is necessary for the launch of its sandbox programs in Phuket, Krabi, Phangnga, Koh Samui, Pattaya and Chiang Mai. 

• Phuket Tourist Association urged the government to allow it to purchase its own COVID-19 vaccines to kickstart the Phuket Tourism Sandbox program.  The reopening plan is hindered by the government’s diversion of vaccines to other high risk areas.  Tour companies from Europe have expressed interest in rebooting its tourism with the island in October.  Likewise, Tourism Association of Koh Samui is committed to reopening the island through the Samui Sealed Route model from July 1.  Source:  Bangkok Post Bangkok Post

Aviation

• The Civil Aviation Board is providing assistance to airlines through various measures, such as waiving airport fees until 31 March next year.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Thai AirAsia (TAA) identified the resumption of international flights as a key for airlines to make a profit, but this may not happen until 2 years as Thailand’s reopening scheme is being disrupted by the pandemic.  Additionally, Asia Aviation (AAV) which is TAA’s largest shareholder, will restructure after securing 3.15 billion Baht from a new investor after it was not granted a soft loan from the government.  AAV is also planning to launch an IPO for TAA as part of its restructuring.  Source:  Bangkok Post Bangkok Post

Others

• The first of its kind, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) have launched a linkage of Thailand’s PromptPay and Singapore’s PayNow retail payment systems. Customers of selected participating banks in Thailand and Singapore can now transfer up to 25,000 baht (800 USD) daily between the countries in real-time through mobile phone applications at a minimum fee.  Source:  Bangkok Post Thai Government News

• A survey by the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) reveals that members want the government to achieve an Electric Vehicle (EV) production goal before year 2025, despite the state’s latest decisiob to speed up its EV domestic production plan by 5 years.  Under the new plan, Thailand will have to produce 1 million EVs by 2025 and have all EVs sold in Thailand manufactured locally by 2035.  The survey said the government should accelerate the EV production plan by adjusting tax structures.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 29 April 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Patients under severe conditions and those using ventilators	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
1,871	63,570	786/ 230	35,394 (at 55.68%)	34,707	1,059,721 (1.6% 0f the population)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
1,864 [1,830 (get tested in hospital) + 34 (active case finding)]	7 (in SQ)	27,988 [4,682 in field hospital]	11,588 (+689)	188 (+10)	21,874	284,925 (0.43% of the population)

• This afternoon from 2.00pm, the PM will head the CCSA plenary meeting. It is expected there will be a tougher lockdown measure. But the fresh measures might target more specific districts than doing it on provincial level. —Matichon
• After a spat occurred when public sector led by Thai Chamber of Commerce pressured the government to procure alternative vaccines other than the Sinovac and AstraZeneca, the relation ended up being back on a honeymoon track. The Chamber of Commerce issued a statement saying that the government is confident that it can procure enough alternative vaccines to vaccinate 50 million people and that there is no need for the private sector to procure vaccines for their employees.—Thai Chamber of Commerce
• The head of Phuket Tourism Association, Bhumkit Raktaengam gave an exclusive interview with a media voicing his concerns that the Phuket sandbox plan to reopen the resort island from July might not be realised as planned. He said that the first batch of 200,000 SinoVac vaccines have arrived but he feared that the second batch which is expected in May might see a delay. The head of Phuket Tourism Association said the latest day to have 70 percent of the population vaccinate is 15 June, if by then the island is not at that stage, there will be no Phuket sandbox.—The Standard
• The Sputnik importer informed the press that the company has submitted an application for Thai Food and Drug Administration for their approval to get the Russian vaccine in Thai market.—Matichon

Politics

• Deputy PM Wissanu came out to say that the new order to revoke the previous order assigning ministers to oversight government policies which pissed the Democrat will be ready by today.—Krungthep Turakij
• It is reported that a student-led protest leader Parit ‘Penguin’ Chiwarak has defecated tissues and blood. It is assumed that after being on hunger strike since March 15 to call for bail for other protest leaders on allegation regarding the lese majeste law.—Prachachat Turakij
  • Later, the correction department issued a statement saying that the protest leader health condition is weak but stable. And they are ready to hospitalised the student protestor should there is a need.—Thai News Agency

Economic:

• Following PM Prayut’s meeting with the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) yesterday, the private sector announced it will support the government’s effort to vaccinate 70 percent of the population by year-end.  In the process, JSCCIB has established  4 working committees:

Team A: Distribution and Logistics – allocate additional spaces, for example from tis department stores or company headquarters as areas to administer vaccines to the people, as well as provide personnel and equipment support

Team B: Communications – promote COVID-19 vaccination to the public.

Team C: IT Operation – develop vaccination registration system and support the government’s Mor Prom Line Account

Team D: Extra Vaccine Procurement – cooperate with state agencies and private hospitals to procure alternative vaccines and offer them to private company employees

• The private sector will also roll out a sandbox project to help SMEs that are members of the Retail Association of Thailand access funding from commercial banks through a digital system.  The goal is for 100,000 SMEs to access funding in 99 days.  If successful, the sandbox will be expanded to cover SMEs in other fields.

• All meeting attendees agreed to expedite rules and regulation reforms to improve Thailand’s Ease of Doing Business.  Sources: Thai Government announcement Prachachart Turakij Krungthep Turakij Bangkok Post

• Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) for March 2021 surged to the highest level in 29 months with a 4.12 percent YoY increase to 107.73 points.  Capacity utilisation rate also rose to 69.59 percent from 65 percent in Feb.  This is attributable to the government’s stimulus packages and the industrial sector’s continuous productivity that was not interrupted by the lockdown.  The MPI was driven by the 7.5 percent, 19.1 percent and 26.9 percent YoY expansion in the production of automobile, steel and sugar, respectively.  This is in response to the increasing demands from global economies, where the export value of industrial products (excluding gold and special items) grew by 25.8 percent; the first double digit growth in 31 months.  For 2021, Industry Ministry expects Thailand’s MPI to be 2-3 percent and industry GDP at 2.5-3 percent.  Sources:  Post Today Bangkok Post

• According to the Asian Development Outlook report published by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Thailand’s GDP is projected to grow by 3 percent in 2021 and by 4.5 percent in 2022.  This year’s growth is hindered by the third wave of COVID-19 and the slowness in vaccine distribution.  Export is expected to expand by 5.6 percent in 2021 and by 12.5 percent in 2022.  ADB forecasts that Asia will see an average GDP growth of 5.3 percent, while adding that Asian economies are on diverging paths.  This is because their trajectories are shaped by the magnitude of domestic outbreaks, the pace of vaccine rollouts and how much they are benefiting from the global recovery.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij Bangkok Post

The Thailand Privilege Card Co (TPC) is banking on the Phuket tourism sandbox model to bring new arrivals who are Thailand Elite Card members after the third COVID-19 outbreak delayed their travel plans to Thailand.   After Songkran, only 69 TPC members requested to visit Thailand, down from over 100 per week.  As of April 15, some 1,100 tourists had visited Thailand under the Thailand Elite Members Quarantine Programme . The third COVID-19 outbreak also held back the progress of the Elite Flexible One package, which aims to drive property sales by offering a 500,000-Baht membership for a 5-year multiple-entry visa to those who buy 10-million-Baht properties in Thailand.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 27 April 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Severe conditions	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,179	59,687	628 cases	33,551 (at 56.21%)	30,824	1,012,388
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
2,174 [2,149 (get tested in hospital) + 25 (active case finding)]	5 (in SQ)	25,973 [5,365 in field hospital]	10,069 (+993)	163 (+15)	21,732	214,644

• Yesterday, the Bangkok Governor and Metropolitan Police fined PM Prayut for not wearing a face mask when he was spotted leading a meeting at the Government House without any personal protective gear.–Reuters and all media outlet
• As of now, there have been more than 50 provinces in Thailand, including Bangkok which have imposed restrictions for everyone to wear face masks at all time when in public. Offenders are liable to a fine up to 20,000 THB.—Tourism Authority of Thailand
• Yesterday, the CCSA deputy spokesperson said in the daily press briefing that on Thursday, there will be a revision of the area of restrictions to escalating six provinces (Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut Prakan, Chiang Mai and Chonburi) to be maximum and strict control areas (formerly maximum control area). Under the new proposed scheme, there will be 55 provinces under maximum control areas and 16 provinces under control areas.–ThaiPBS, Thai Rath
• Deputy PM and Energy Minister Suppatanapong is confident that the government could take control of the pandemic situation within two weeks. And affirmed that the scheme to reopen for international tourists in July remains in place.—Thai Rath
• The secretary-general of the Interior Ministry has issued a new order to Bangkok-adjacent Samut Sakhon province to set up field hospitals capable of hosting 500 patients (from Bangkok).—Krungthep Turakij

Politics

• Suan Dusit Poll released the latest study on the government handling of the pandemic which shows that 67.82% of the respondents do not believe that the government can curb the third wave. And 70.51 percent of the people believe that this third wave is the most severe.—Suan Dusit Poll
• The unity of the coalition is under a big pressure on all fronts:
  • Regarding the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) and Democrat Party, the designation of ministers to oversight a big budget to mobilise the economy still cause conflicts.
    • Democrat leader Jurin came out to say that the third largest ruling party does not satisfy with the PM order to designate Deputy Agriculture Minister Thammanat to look after some Democrat political capitals in the South. Democrat leader also raised questions why the PPRP ministers were assigned to their constituencies, but Democrat ministers were assigned to provinces that they have no connection with and he hoped “the issue to be resolved soon to prevent this conflict to worsen.”–Prachachat
    • This is seen by a columnist as the first act of defiant of Jurin against the PM.—Thai Rath
  • The handling of COVID-19 has caused the PPRP and second largest Bhumjaithai Party.
    • Bhumjaithai leader and Public Health Minister Anutin has been under great pressure to be the target of a campaign of Change.org to drive the minister out for the failure in curbing the third wave of the pandemic. [As of now, there have been 200,000 users signed the petition].—Change.org
    • The Minister posted on his social media saying that he is working under the direction of the Prime Minister who is concurrently the director of CCSA. He said the pandemic control has been under the PM direction since last year, not the Public Health Ministry under his control.—Krungthep Turakij
    • Bhumjaithai Party Registrar came out to hit the PM for keeping on using the Emergency Decree and the CCSA which exclude the politicians to be part of the pandemic control since inception. Mr Suphachai said that the PM is viewing the virus as the traditional security threat, which is different from the successful pandemic control back in the 2000s.—Krungthep Turakij
  • Deputy leader and a main figure of the main Opposition Pheu Thai Party came out to dismiss the rumour that the party will join the coalition should Bhumjaithai or Democrat pull out of the coalition.—Thai Rath

Australia

• The virtual Anzac Day commemoration service at the Australian Embassy has been reported in Thai media both in Thai and English medium.—Krungthep Turakij, Nation Thailand, Matichon, Thai Rath, Naew Na, SBS Thai

Economic:

Export

• Thailand’s export value in March 2021 hit a record high of 24.2 billion USD, expanding by an impressive 8.47 percent YoY.  This is the second executive month of growth and also the highest in 28 months since Nov 2018.  Excluding oil, gold and weaponry, real export had increased by 11.97 percent while import grew by 14.12 percent ( 23.5 billion USD in value), with a trade surplus of 710.80 million USD.  As such, Commerce Minister Jurin expects the 2021 export to exceed his original forecast of 4 percent, noting that the current COVID-19 resurgence did not affect export much since it has little impacts on factories or labourers.  The growth in March was driven by higher export of cars and components, steel, rubber products, electronic appliances and PPE gear.  Overall, export grew by 2.27 percent in Q1 of 2021, real export by 7.61 percent and import by 9.37 percent.  This leaves a trade surplus of 515.66 million USD for Q1 of 2021.  Sources:  Prachachart Turakij Bangkok Post MoC Press Release
• The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) projects that Thai food export will grow in value by 5-7 percent to reach 1 trillion Baht as COVID-19 vaccination rollout continues.  FTI aims for Thailand to focus on manufacturing high value added products and premium food that will fetch higher profit margin.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Tourism

• Due to the third wave of COVID-19 outbreak, the government has slashed its forecast for the 2021 international visitor figures to 3-4 million from 6 million as well as the revenue target to 850 billion Baht from 1.218 trillion Baht.  Of the 850 billion Baht forecasted revenue, 550 billion Baht would be from domestic market and 300 billion from foreigners.  Source: Bangkok Post
• Commerce Minister Jurin reiterated that the tourism Phuket sandbox scheme can still kick off on 1 July as planned.  The key success factor is that the vaccine must be rolled out quickly enough to inoculate 70 percent of the Phuket residents by the end of June.  The Thai Chamber of Commerce is ready to support the government achieve this endeavour.  Source:  ThaiPBS World
• Hua Hin is ready to take after the Phuket sandbox model and open to vaccinated tourists without quarantine requirements in October through the ‘Hua Hin Recharge’ campaign.  This means inoculations in Hua Hin, set at 353498 doses, must start from June 1 until Sept 30.  If successful, the campaign could attract some 100,000 international tourists. Hua Hin Recharge will be officially proposed to the National Tourism Policy Committee’s meeting on May 6.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Ease of Doing Business

• In February, the government established an ad hoc committee to revise investment privileges, regulations and work permits to better facilitate foreign investment into Thailand.  Headed by ML Chayothid Kridakorn, who is also an adviser to DPM Supattanapong, the committee will finalise new investment privileges in 60 days and submit them to PM Prayut and CESA.  ML Chayothid warned that Thailand’s competitiveness will lag behind Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia if ease of doing business issues are not tackled soon.  Source: Bangkok Post

Others

• Ministry of Finance affirmed that it has up to 300 billion Baht to stimulate the economy through a roster of packages, to be implemented in June.  Of this figure, 240 billion Baht is available (remaining from the 1-trillion-Baht loan) and the rest is from the government’s budget.  Among the packages is one that will incentivise people to spend their savings, because the supply of savings had increased significantly by 500 – 600 billion Baht or equivalent to 3 percent of GDP.  If half of this amount could be converted into domestic consumption, it could boost GDP growth by 1 percent and might propel the Thai economy to grow by 4 percent.  Sources:   Manager Online Naew Na  Bangkok Post
• The Japan Credit Rating (JCR) Agency has maintained Thailand’s credit-rating at A- with a stable outlook, despite the economy facing serious impacts from Covid-19.  The rating is maintained as the Thai government had launched a 1.9-trillion Baht fiscal package since Q2 of 2020, while its public debt to GDP remained below the 60 percent ceiling and the banking sector remained sound.  JCR expects Thailand’s GDP to grow by 3 percent in 2021 following a -6 percent contraction last year.  Source:  Bangkok Post The Nation
• Evlomo Inc, a US-based company specialising in Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Thailand’s Rojana Industrial Park invested USD 1.06 billion (33.3 billion Baht) to establish an 8-gigawatt battery energy storage project in Chon Buri province.  The joint venture is 55 percent held by the Rojana and 45 percent by Evlomo.  The Eastern Economic Corridor Office expects the JV to transform Nong Yai into an EV manufacturing hub in ASEAN.  Construction is to be completed in 18-24 months and is expected to create 3,000 jobs.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 22 April 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
1,470	48,113	77	29,848(at 62.64%)	19,250	746,617 (1.13% of the population)
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
1,470 [1,370 (get tested in hospital) + 100 (active case finding)]	0 (in SQ)	18,148 [3,593 in field hospital]	4,775 (+446)	117 (+7)	20,914	118,223 (0.18% of the population)

• Deputy PM and Public Health Minister Anutin gave a media interview saying that the public health ministry is going to discuss with the Pfizer vaccine producer. The minister said he is hoping to hasten the timeline to get the American vaccine earlier than the discussed timeline which was at the end of the year. He also said that the price of the vaccine is not as significant as the safety of the people.—Inside Thailand
• It is reported that fully dosed US military personnels will visit the resort city of Pattaya for leisure in August. It is expected there will be at least 1,000 to 2,000 US troops to visit Thailand.—Inside Thailand
• Justice Minister Somsak Thepsutin is under a great pandemic scared as he is seen being in a close contact and a party with the Covid confirmed case.—PPTV
• A hospital in the Northern city of Lam Pang has seized the roll out of SinoVac vaccine after almost 40 recipients have shown symptoms resemblance that of paralysis.—Matichon

Politics

• During the weekly cabinet meeting, the PM has issued a new arrangement for 29 ministers to look after the implementation of the government policies nationwide. Each minister is assigned to cover a couple of provinces.—all media outlet
• This move seems to have political implications, as the timing of the designation is right after the Democrat Party secretary-general issued a press release to media informing that the party is ready for any political accident or dissolution.
• The fact that the government main campaigner Deputy Agriculture Minister Thammanat is assigned to look after Songkla, Nakhon Sri Thammarat and Phuket, which are Democrat political capital provinces was seen as a power grabber from the Democrat party.—Prachachat Turakij
• Democrat Party leader, Deputy PM and Commerce Minister Jurin declined to comment nor analyse on the PM new arrangement.—Matichon
• The attorney-general has decided not to press charges to the former leader of defunct Future Forward Party on the allegation of violating the organic law.—Khao Sod, Prachachat
• Royalist Thai Bhakdhi Party launched a campaign collecting a million signature calling for not amending the constitution. The party leader claimed that the rejig will open door for former PM Thaksin party to return to power.—Krungthep Turakij

ASEAN-Myanmar

• A deputy government spokesperson informed the press that this morning PM Prayut had a telephone call with the Indonesian President regarding the upcoming ASEAN Summit on situation in Myanmar. The PM expressed concerns over Myanmar as a Thai close neighbour and realise that the situation in Myanmar is a challenge to peace and stability in the region. The PM apologised for sending Deputy PM Don as his special envoy due to the pandemic situation.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic:

• Krungsri Research revised Thailand’s GDP growth this year to 2.2 from 2.5 percent due to the impacts of the latest Covid-19 outbreak as well as the drought.  It slashed the forecast for public investment (+7.8 percent), but revised upward the projections for export (+6 percent) and private investment (+3.3 percent) as well as consumption (+2.9 percent), bolstered by the government’s stimulus measures.  Krungsri Research expects Thailand’s economic recovery will be delayed, noting that infection cases could peak between late April/early May and will be reined in by July.  Source:  The Nation
• The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) anticipates that the third wave of pandemic outbreak will dampen domestic tourism and demands for at least 3 months.  It foresees that the government’s plan to reopen Phuket to foreign arrivals will be delayed.  As such, it has trimmed its 2021 GDP forecast to 1.5-3.0 percent from 1.5-3.5 percent.  JSCCIB’s forecast is made based on the assumption that Thailand will meet its vaccination target and will pump in fiscal package worth 200 billion Baht to nurse a K-shape recovery.  JSCCIB emphasizes the importance of speeding up the vaccination because it will restore confidence and boost demands, while the fiscal package will fuel GDP growth.  It projects that inflation will expand by 1-1.2 percent from 0.8-1 percent and also raised export growth to 4-6 percent from 3-5 percent as global economies recover.  Sources:  Thansettakij Bangkok Post
• According to the Tourism and Sports Ministry, the number of international arrivals in the first 2 months of this year dropped 99.77 percent YoY, from 5.9 million in 2020 to 13,435.  The Association of Thai travel Agents (ATTA) hopes for Thailand to reopen by Q4 as the tourism industry faces another setback due to a new wave of infections.  Unless the number of infections drops to double digits in the next two months, the launch of Phuket’s sandbox model is likely to be postponed from its original date of July.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Commerce Minister Jurin noted that while tourism is badly affected by the pandemic, export is picking up.  For March, he anticipates export will expand by 8 percent due to the MoC officials who served as the “salesmen” in organising online business matching between Thai exporters and foreign buyers, which last year was valued at 14.4 billion Baht.  For 2021, the goal is set at 16 billion Baht.  Sources:  Matichon The Standard
• In March 2021, Commerce Ministry (MoC) reported that there are 8,841 new companies with registered capital of 19.4 billion Baht, mostly in building construction, real estate and restaurants.  Month on month, March’s figure is the highest in 15 years, with more businesses operating in internet retail, pharmaceutical and medical devices in response to COVID-19 outbreak.  The number of new businesses in Q1 2021 totalled 23,389, which is a 20 percent increase YoY.  New foreign businesses in March was 63, with investment value worth 9.98 billion Baht, or an 85 percent increase from the previous month.  In Q1, new foreign business totalled 147, with investment value worth 24.5 billion Baht.   Source:  Spring News
• Hotels, restaurants and tourism operators who joined the previous phases of the government’s Rao Tiew Duay Kun (We Travel Together) domestic tourism campaign can register for the project’s third phase until 30 April.  The third phase has added an additional 2 million subsidised room nights and tighter regulations to address corruption.  Source:  The Nation

Headlines summary as of 21 April 2021

News

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 1 April, totally confirmed cases (third wave)	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
1,458	46,643	77	29,371 (at 62.97%)	17,780	604,647
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)
1,454 [1,346 (get tested in hospital) + 108 (active case finding)]	4 (in SQ)	17,162 [3,365 in field hospital]	4,330 (+365)	110 (+2)	20,814	107,663

• Dr Thiravat Hemachudha, head of the Emerging Diseases Science Centre at Chulalongkorn University came out to reveal that from 5-9 April, there have been at least six health workers got paralysed after taking Chinese Sinovac vaccines in the Eastern province of Rayong. All six people have been treated. Dr Thiravat suspected that this might happen in certain lots of vaccine, not all Sinovac vaccines. —all media outlet
• Deputy Public Health Minister warned people not to spread the information as it is yet clear whether the vaccine caused the paralysis.–Manager
• The Ministry of Public Health is going to hold a press conference this afternoon on the paralysis.—Nation TV
• This morning the PM posted on his official FB Page saying that in a meeting with the vaccine procurement committee, the government will procure 35 million more doses from 2-3 brands. 10 out of 35 million will be procured by private sector led by Thai Chamber of Commerce which would lift a burden on the government budget.–Prachachat
• Transport Minister, the first Thai minister to get COVID-19 has been discharged from hospital. He will be on self-quarantine at his hometown in the North-eastern province of Burirum.—Thai Rath

Politics

• Coalition Democrat Party spokesperson said the party secretary-general has ordered the party to finish appointing party representative in all constituency to prepare for possible house dissolution. The spokesperson said the party is always ready for the election, should there is any political accident.–Prachachat
• An executive member of the Progressive Movement (movement succeeding Future Forward Party) announced that the Progressive Movement has won 16 mayor seats and 136 seats of the municipal councils in the latest local election.–Matichon
  • On background note, the latest municipal election had 2,472 mayor seats and 31,194 municipal council members to compete on.—BBC Thai
• Ousted and self-exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra came out to grill the PM and the government vaccine rollout campaign. The former PM suggested asking the private sector to use their personal ties with major vaccine producers to procure the much-needed vaccine.  He offered to talk with Russian President Putin to secure Sputnik vaccine.–Prachachat
• A think tank King Prajadhipok’s Institute has issued the result of the latest poll regarding the constitutional amendment. The study found out that 77.5 percent of 22,830 samples would like to see the charter amended. Out of the pro-amendment, 39.1 percent thinks that the Constitutional Drafting Assembly (CDA) should take the lead, followed by the Parliament at 30.8 percent.–Matichon
• Pokin Palakul, a main figure in the freshly established Sarng Thai Party, joined a meeting with Chen Zhou, Vice Minister of the International Department Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party regarding Xi Jinping speech at the Boao Forum for Asia. Both sides agreed to enhance cooperation on maritime silk road via Thai canal project under the vision that the canal will be a peaceful channel for the East and the West. The meeting also mentioned that Chinese top notch law firm Yingke Law Firm is going to open its local office in Thailand to boost Sino-Thai relations.–Matichon

Economic:

Cabinet’s decisions, 20 April 2021

• Extend the validity period of Rao Chana scheme from 31 May to 30 June to give people more time to spend the 7,000 Baht cash handout.   The scheme’s budget is also raised from 210 billion to 213 billion Baht. Its target group is expanded to 33.5 million from 31.1 million people by drawing upon registrants from the previous round who needed special assistance, such as those without smartphones.  Sources: Thai Khu Fah fb page, 20 April 2021  Bangkok Post
• Allocate 68 million Baht for Commerce Ministry (MoC) to promote franchises as an option to boost employment and help SMEs.  MoC plans to organise Franchise Roadshows and Expos that will offer a business matching opportunity for 400 franchisors and connect potential franchisees with financial institutions.  The 8-month project is to generate employment 10,000 people.  Source:  Manager Online

Others

• DPM Supattanapong convened a special meeting with his economic team and confirmed that Phuket will reopen on 1 July as originally planned due to high demands from long-haul markets.  He also noted that the government has sufficient budget to implement its roster of stimulus packages without the need to borrow more.  The packages should be finalized in May, such as Khon La Krueng subsidy and Rao Tiew Duay Gun domestic tourism programs, in addition to a new package that will incentivize people to spend their savings.  The DPM noted that economic growth will not be harshly impacted if the public cooperates in bringing the pandemic under control by the end of April.  Sources:  Khao Sod Manager Online Krungthep Turakij
• As of 20 April, Finance Ministry (MoF) reported that 32.8 million people have received the Rao Chana 7,000 Baht cash handout, which will inject 200 billion Baht into the economy and benefit 1.3 million businesses.  Recipients of the handouts include low-income state welfare card holders, selected beneficiaries from the government’s previous stimulus schemes (Khon La Kreung and Rao Tiew Duay Gun) and people who need special assistance.  Source:  Ministry of Finance Press Release
• Commerce Ministry (MoC) succeeded in exporting 240,637 tonnes of fruits worth 117 billion Baht from Jan – Feb 2021, which is a 109 percent increase from the previous year.  This is attributable to MoC’s proactive approach in broadening its export markets through online business matching and promotional events in South Korea, Japan and China.  It also stepped up on safety certification standards for exported Thai fruits.  Source: Thansettakij
• A Pheu Thai party member has warned the Thai cabinet not to exploit the ongoing commotion caused by COVID-19 by secretly endorsing Thailand’s accession to CPTPP.  She suggested the government embark on an informal ‘Exploratory Discussion’ with CPTPP members before making a decision on accession, since Thailand had once used this approach with Australia and other countries.  She suggested the government should now focus on solving people’s plight arising from COVID-19 rather than to commit to a trade pact it is unequipped to join.  Source:  Matichon Weekly
• CIMB Thai forecasts that the Thai economy in Q2 will enter a technical recession, given that it is likely to experience a second executive QoQ contraction.  The current pandemic outbreak could also dent Thailand’s GDP growth to be below CIMB’s original estimate of +2.6 percent, with the hardest hit sectors being logistics, tourism, restaurants and hotel businesses.  Some sectors are less affected, such as retail/e-commerce and export.  Whether economic growth could reach +2 percent this year depends on the government’s speed in containing the outbreak, the efficiency of the debt relief measures and stimulus packages.  Sources:  Thai Post TNN Thailand