Headlines summary as of 22 February 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 15 Dec, totally confirmed cases
89	25,504	63	24,361 (at 95.52%)	21,267
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding
73 [59 (get tested in hospital) + 14 (active case finding)]	16 (in SQ)	1,060	950 (+0)	83 (+0)	14,407

• Yesterday, the PM posted on his FB Page saying that there will be a plenary CCSA meeting later today to determine lockdown easing measures, whether to allow alcoholic beverages when dine-in or to re-open entertainment complex (pubs and clubs). The PM reaffirmed that the CCSA will decide on this as careful as possible as the decision will affect a lot of small businesses.–Prachachat
• For any staff who wishes to see the ambience in the Royal Visit to the Embassy last week, please see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R28NqndOrtE

Politics

• Over the weekend, the Parliament engaged in a vote of no confidence:
  • The result ranked according to the votes is as followed

Name + Position	FOR	AGAINST	ABSENTION
Deputy PM and Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul	275	201	6
Deputy PM Prawit Wongsuwan	274	204	4
Deputy Agriculture Minister Thamanat Prompow	274	199	5
PM Prayut Chan-o-cha	272	206	3
Interior Minister Anupong Paojinda	272	205	3
Deputy Interior Minister Niphon Buyamanee	272	206	4
Deputy PM and Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit	268	207	7
Transport Minister Saksayam Chidchob	268	201	12
Labour Minister Suchart Chomklin	263	212	5
Education Minister Nataphol Teepsuwan	258	215	8

• There are interesting points of votes from many party MPs.
  • Four MPs from Move Forward Party voted for the Health Minister and leader of Bhumjaithai Party, resulting in making him the top of the league. The secretary-general of the party said the four MPs will face ‘internal ban’ from participating in the party’s activities.–Prachachat
    • One of the four MPs Karom said that he would like to be expelled from the party and would like to join second largest Coalition Bhumjaithai Party, citing carelessness from the current party.—Daily News
    • The Party spokesperson gave an interview with a media this morning that the party will not give the MP what he wants. The party will hang the MP and put all flipped MPs on boycott.—Inside Thailand
  • Three MPs from coalition Democrat Party voted abstained for the Deputy PM, Commerce Minister and party leader Jurin Laksanawisit.—Naew Na
  • Six MPs from the main Coalition Palang Pracharat Party (so-called the North Star faction) voted abstained for the Transport Minister from Bhumjaithai Party, citing the minister inability to respond to the censure debate.–Matichon
    • Deputy PM and PPRP leader Prawit is scheduled to hold an urgent party executives’ meeting to punish the North Star Group, as it is reported that Newin Chidchob, brother of Saksayam and former political juggernaut, is pissed with the votes.–Matichon
  • The PM was reportedly jabbed Deputy Agriculture Minister Thammanat by saying that as the Deputy Minister having more votes than himself, why don’t Mr Thammanat come to be the PM himself.–Matichon
  • The PM was reportedly made a call to the Education Minister who got the least favour votes to give his morale support. The PM affirmed that he does not expect a cabinet reshuffle soon. Should there is, the reshuffle will be based on the ministers’ performances, not the vote results.–Matchon
• On the last day of the censure debate, Move Forward Party MP Rangsiman Rome dropped the mother of all bombs at the administration by raising questions on the so-called “elephant ticket”.
  • The ticket is allegedly a list of police officers assured of promotion issued by authority outside the Police and government. The MP asked whether the PM and Deputy PM Prawit had the knowledge of such ticket.—Thai Enquirer
  • The so-called “elephant ticket” was a letter send to ask for royal permission to appoint senior police positions and signed by the Lord Chamberlain.
  • Dissident academia Somsak Jeamteerasakul posted on his FB the letter showing the King and Queen have signed to acknowledge the ‘ticket’.—Somsak Jeamteerasakul
  • Former advisor to Deputy PM Prawit posted on his FB saying that such an appointment was nothing special as the letter was to ask the Royal permission for those police officers are part of the Palace’s police.—Thai Post
• On Friday former Pheu Thai Chief Strategist Sudarat Keyuraphan held a press conference on the official debut of the newly established party “Sarng Thai”. Pokin Palakul, a political juggernaut said the party will focus on listening to the voices of the younger generations.—Khao Sod

Australia

• ABC covered on the embassy’s premiere screening of the “His Majesty King Maha Vajiralongkorn Phra Vajiraklaochaoyuhua in Australia” documentary and interview a Thai journalist and an Australian academia from Australian National University. Both commentators criticised the timing of the premiere as it happens during the backdrop of a series of protests calling for monarchical reforms in Thailand and many protestors have been charged harshly for criticising the monarchy. The veteran Thai journalist said Canberra is a democratic government and “is supposed to stand for freedom of expression”, the message sending from the embassy is “very awkward”. The pundit from ANU said the embassy is “producing this documentary in a social and political context where the place of the monarchy in Thailand is becoming increasingly a fraught question.” —ABC

Economic:

Tourism

• Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) will propose to the COVID-19 Economic Administration Center the idea of establishing the ‘competitiveness enhancement fund’ to help tourism businesses, of which 20 percent is expected to divest from the industry.  The fund is expected to be valued at 30 billion Baht, or 1 percent of the 3 trillion Baht revenue from tourism in 2019.  The fund will help operators adapt to the post COVID-19 new norm through training and investment in new services, particularly for SMEs and family-run businesses that cannot access bank loans. TAT plans to conduct studies to determine the level of assistance required by businesses first.  Sources:  Thai RathKhaosodBangkok Post

• Thai Hotels Association and industry bodies support the Bank of Thailand’s (BOT( and Finance Ministry’s plan to implement ‘asset warehousing’ concept to help the tourism sector.  Although no other details have been approved, Krungthai Bank expects the government to implement this scheme in March or April, slightly before the BOT’s targeted debt moratorium for SMEs expire in June.  The government also is also considering issuing legislation related to the asset warehousing and enacting a “super loan” law – referring a loan for borrowers in the special mention loan category with interest based on market rates.  Source:  Bangkok Post  Prachachat Turakij

Others

• A former dean of Rangsit University’s Economic Faculty, Dr Anusorn Tammajai estimated that 1-1.5 million people will become jobless and 4-5 million will have lower income, of which 30-40 percent will have lower debt serviceability as COVID-19 resurgence devastates the tourism industry.  These problems are rooted in Thailand’s widening inequality, which in turn stems from political and economic monopolisation that must be overcome through reforms.  Dr Anusorn expects the Thai economy to contract by -0.50 to -1 percent in Q1 2021 and to rebound to a 3-4 percent growth in Q2.  The pandemic is forcing Thailand to adapt to the new global supply chain where it must transform from a turn-key supplier to one that can offer value-added service and product.  Source:  Thansettakij

• Automakers in Thailand are requesting that car chip producers increase their production capacity to alleviate the global shortage amidst the surge in demand.  According to Federation of Thai Industry (FTI), domestic car manufacturers are racing to increase purchase orders for semiconductors since chip supplies have nearly run out.  The problem is compounded by the global shortage of shipping containers.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• The Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) seems to be the only flagship project that took off in recent years, with other projects making much less progress, such as the Northern Economic Corridor (NEC), Northeast Economic Corridor (NEEC) and South Economic Corridor (SEC).  These projects were set to be implemented in 2020 following the government’s allocation of 94.4 billion Baht in 2019 for regional development plans.  However, to date there are no clear action plans, framework or host agencies to drive them. 

• FTI hopes that the political unrest in Myanmar will divert foreign investments into Thailand’s EEC, NEC, NEEC and SEC.  Nonetheless, University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) noted that Vietnam has surpassed Thailand as an investment destination because it has signed the CPTPP and Vietnam-EU FTA.  The latter could bolster Vietnam’s export to double that of Thailand.  Vietnam’s processed agricultural produce, logistics and automotive industries will benefit the most from technology-transfer from the Vietnam-EU FTA.  Sources:  Bangkok Post Krungthep Turakij newspaper, 22 February 2021

Headlines summary as of 18 February 2021

 News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 15 Dec, totally confirmed cases
150	25,111	63	23,946 (at 95.36%)	20,874
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding
142 [38 (get tested in hospital) + 104 (active case finding)]	8 (in SQ)	1,083	934 [929 reported by BMA yesterday + 5 by CCSA today]	82 (+0)	14,256

• In today’s press briefing, CCSA held a sub-committee meeting on lockdown ease-up and will propose the set of measures to the plenary CCSA meeting for approval.
• In the briefing yesterday, the CCSA spokesperson said that the posh Sri Panwa Resort in the Southern province of Phuket will open its doors to the tourists from Indonesia under the Villa Quarantine scheme on 21 February 2021. The tourists will travel in a ‘bubble’ with chartered flight and have been tested for the coronavirus for 5-6 times as they were travelling to the US, Canada, Denmark, Brazil, and France. The spokesperson said that the scheme has been approved for quite sometimes but there has been no practical example. Sri Panwa could be the first par excellence example of opening Thailand’s doors to tourists during the pandemic.–Matichon

Politics

• Today enters the third day of the censure debate, the Parliament is scheduled to hold the debate until Friday and cast the vote of no confidence on Saturday.
  • A MP from the Opposition Pheu Thai Party grilled the PM on his use of Article 44 to close down Akara mines which case is now on the arbitrary. MP Jiraporn Sindhuprai raised the media release by Kingsgate saying that Thailand has granted 44 special mineral prospecting licences (SPLs) over 397,226 rais of land to the company until 2025. The MP suspected this preferential treatment might be in exchange of the company to revoke its case from the arbitrary which is very likely a loss for Thai government.–Prachachat
  • Tomorrow, there will be a gathering at the Parliament by Mob Fest Group from 5.00 pm. And on 20 February, there will be the other major gathering, venue TBC.
• On the protestor front, a court postponed the verdict for main protest figures on lese majeste, sedition and violating the Emergency Decree to be on 8 March.–ThaiPBS
• The Constitutional Court has accepted the appeal to decide whether the Parliament has the authority to set up a Constitutional Drafting Assembly (CDA). The Coalition and Opposition are joining hands to propose a bill to set up the CDA and to revise a constitution. The appeal was submitted by coalition vocal MP Paiboon.—Khao Sod
• The cutting-edge application Club House is getting to be platform for Thai dissidents to discuss (without a digital footprint) on issues regarded as taboos in the society. The Ministry of Digital Economy came out to warn users of distorting information and violating the law.–Reuters 
  • On 16 February, Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a dissent in Japan, held a discussion on ‘Vajiralongkorn and Australia’ which was fully occupied within minutes.

Economic:

Cabinet’s Decision, 15 February 2021

Approved a 50-billion-Baht loan programs through state banks, valid until 30 June.  Government Savings Bank (GSB) and Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives is each allocated 20 billion Baht to offer informal workers loans with 0.1 percent interest monthly for 3 years.The remaining 10 billion Baht goes to GSB as loans to tourism-related SMEs.  Applicants must have vacant lands or land and buildings for use as collateral. The credit line will not exceed 70 percent of the government’s land appraisal value, with the maximum credit line capped at 50 million baht.  It has a 3-year loan period with step-up interest rates at 0.1 percent, 0.99 percent and 5.99 percent per year for the first, second and third years. Source:  Bangkok Post

Approved 37.1 billion Baht for the ‘Mor33 Rao Rak Kan’ cash handout scheme to 9.27 million workers covered by Section 33 of the Social Security Act. The government will offer 4,000 Baht to each worker, to be overseen by the Labour Ministry.  The applicants can register from Feb 21 – March 7.  The new relief followed a recent 210-billion Baht cash handout scheme for 31 million people.  Source:  The Nation

The 2020 GDP and Projection for 2021

According to official statistics from National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), Thai GDP in Q4 of 2020 contracted by -4.2 percent YoY.  This was better than expected (Q2 GDP contracted by -12.1 percent and Q3 was -6.4 percent) as domestic activities recovered after the easing of the lockdown restrictions.  In Q4, growth was fuelled by private consumption (+0.9 percent) and government expenditure (+1.9 percent).  The lack of international tourists remained a drag on growth, with services export plunging by 74.8 percent YoY in Q4 of 2020. 

Overall, the Thai economy shrank by -6.1 percent in 2020; the worst contraction since the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis.  Exports of goods and services had plummeted by -19.4 percent.

For year 2021, NESDC had revised downward its forecast for the 2022 economy to a growth of 2.5-3.5 percent from 3.5-4.5 percent.   This is because the Q1 of 2021 growth is likely to be hampered by the renewed surge in pandemic outbreak that started in late 2020.  Sources: Bangkok Post NESDC press release

Others

Overseas businesses that gain revenue over 1.8 million Baht from providing services in Thailand will be required to pay a 7 percent Value-Added Tax from 1 Sept onward, according to an announcement published in the Royal Gazette on 10 Feb 2021.  This will apply to foreign e-service providers such as Apple, Google, Facebook, Netflix, Line, YouTube and TikTok.  The VAT collection is expected to generate revenue of 5 billion Baht for the government in the first year of its enforcement.  Sources:  Bangkok PostManager OnlineRoyal Gazette Announcement 10Feb2021

NESDC urged the government to take a clear stance on CPTPP because delays in applying to join the trade pact has high opportunity cost.  Moreover, the government should prioritise advancing on regional economic cooperation as it will boost investors’ confidence and draw FDIs, which are crucial to Thailand’s economic recovery.  To boost export this year, Thailand should also maximise the benefits offered by RCEP and pursue various forms of economic cooperation, such as Economic Partnership, bilateral agreements and FTAs.  Sources:  Thai Rath Bangkok Post

Ministry of Commerce’s Department of Trade Negotiations said RCEP will enable 90-92 percent of Thai exports to 15 member countries to enjoy zero tariff, while offering greater access to the Chinese, South Korean and Japanese markets.Among its many benefits include facilitating trade and investments, paperless trading and e-commerce.MoC expects RCEP to be enforced within this year and in the long run, MoC will have to make a number of adjustments, such as on intellectual property, to meet RCEP requirements.  Source:  Department of Trade Negotiations Press Release  Thansettakij Poojadkarn Online

Australia

• The Royal Visit to the Ambassador Residence and the press conference afterwards are still on bulletin.
  • The Visit was on the Court Circular on 16 February and publicised on almost all outlets.
  • The press conference went well with coverages on myriad of media outlets. HOM’s comment on the event was well-placed. HOM was quoted saying that the King said he had watched the documentary for several times and when HOM presented the credentials to the King earlier on the King said he love Australia.
    • Thai print/ online media—Matichon, Daily News, Siam Rath, Krungthep Turakij, The Reporters, TNN
    • English language media—Bangkok Post, ThaiPBS World and the video coverage on ThaiPBS World

Headlines summary as of 10 February 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 15 Dec, totally confirmed cases from clusters
157	23,903	63	18,914 (at 77.34%)	19,666
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding
144 [38 (get tested in hospital) + 106 (active case finding)]	13 (in SQ)	4,909	880 [872 reported by BMA yesterday + 8 by CCSA today]	80 (+1 a 65-year-old lady with kidney failure and cancer)	13,545

Politics

• This morning, Opposition Move Forward Party proposed five motions to support freedom of speech, submitting the proposals to the House Speaker representatives.
  • The five motions are:

1. Amend all defamation laws, including the Royal Defamation Law, to have a proportionate penalty.
   1. The proposed motion suggested the division of the productive criticism out of the criticism aimed at tarnishing the honours of the monarch. The latter will, according to the proposed bill, have lesser penalty. Meanwhile, for the productive criticism aimed at upholding the Constitutional Monarchy will be exempted from penalty.
   2. In order to prevent the law to be used as political tools, the proposed bill will only allow the Royal household Bureau to be the plaintiff.
2. Amend the Computer Crime Act to stick to its main objectives and not to threaten the freedom of speech.
3. Anti-SLAPP law for Criminal Code
4. Anti-SLAPP law for Civil Law
5. Amend the laws for people to sue against the state officials.

• The party leader said to upheld the Constitutional Monarchy regime, it is best to have the monarchy above politics and not to have anyone manipulate the institution for political gains. Pita Limchareonrat raised the detention of main protest figures and the UN human rights body reports. The party secretary-general said the proposed bill is a middle-ground and as a political party, this is the a ‘compromised’ version for all political actors to live with.–
• Yesterday, the Court denied bails to main protest figures, including Anont Nampa and Parit ‘Penguin’ Chiwarak as public prosecutors indicted them with charges (sedition and lese majeste) for heir roles and speeches in 19 and 20 September rallies at the Royal Field. Four protest leaders  have been detained at the Bangkok Remand Prison since last evening.
  • In response, Panusaya ‘Rung’ called for the urgent gathering at Skywalk in CBD Bangkok. And there will be another gathering at the Skywalk next to the MBK department store from 5.00 pm.–Prachachat
• Yesterday, the Parliament passed a resolution to submit the motion to establish the Constitutional Drafting Assembly (CDA) to the Constitutional Court. Coalition Bhumjaithai, Democrat and Chatthai Pattana parties joined the Opposition voted against the motion proposed by the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party. The voting results are as followed:

Parties	For	Against	Abstain	Absent	Governing/Opposition
Senate	230	–	7	13	Governing
Palang Pracharat	113	–	–	8
Thai Local Power	5	–	–	–
Action Coalition for Thailand	5	–	–	–
Thai Forest Conservation	2	–	–	–
10 minute parties	9	1	–	–
Bhumjaithai	–	60	–	1
Democrat	1	47	–	3
Chatthai Pattana	–	12	–	–
Chart Pattana	–	–	4	–
Pheu Thai	–	124	–	10	Opposition
Move Forward	–	51	–	2
Seri Ruamthai	–	9	–	1
Prachachart	–	5	–	2
For The Nation	–	5	–	–
Thai People Power	–	1	–	–
New Economics	1	1	4	–	Governing/Opposition
Total	366	316	15	40

• In a bid to communicate more with the younger generation, on the Lunar New Year, PM Prayut will have his debut on Tik Tok after he had done episodes on Podcast.–Prachachat

Analysis/opinion

• Prachachat outlined the so-called ‘PM War Room’ to help the PM handle the upcoming censure debate. It is reported that there will be at least 3 teams to help the PM: 1. PM Advisors team led by the PM Secretariat, 2. Legal team led by Deputy PM Wissanu to look after the delicate issues related to the monarchy and 3. Prime Minister Operation Centre (PMOC) team bridging the PM Office with ministries. The PMOC will filter the information before submitting to the reportedly ‘inner circle’ team to do the last screening and the PM will pick and choose which information to use to respond to the Opposition. –Prachachat

Economic (kindly supplied by Khun Duangporn)

RCEP

• The parliament on 9 February gave a green light for Thailand to ratify RCEP, after which the various government agencies will prepare for its implementation before Foreign Affairs Ministry will submit the official paperwork to the ASEAN Secretariat.  Commerce Ministry will also establish the FTA fund to provide remedies to Thais affected by the trade pact.  RCEP’s ratification process is expected to be completed in mid-2021.

• The University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) expects RCEP will give Thailand access to the supply chains of China, Japan and South Korea, which will boost Thailand’s export growth by 3.3 percent or 7.56 billion USD.  Overall, it will contribute to Thailand’s GDP growth by 3.4 percent.  However, negative repercussions include product dumping by member countries and the expansion of foreign e-commerce players; an area that Thailand is not well-versed with.  Source:  Prachachat Turakij  Department of Trade Negotiations News  The Standard

Others

• Thailand Elite Card is expected to gain many new members, mostly Chinese businessmen in Myanmar whose confidence is shaken by the country’s political uncertainties.  Prior to the coup in Myanmar, a large number of Chinese members had already relocated to Chiang Mai because of its proximity to China.   The acceleration of this trend is expected to help Elite Card report profit for the first time since its establishment in 18 years and to offset its accumulated debt of 246 million Baht.  The sales of Elite Card membership of 2,066 cards in the first quarter of FY2021 already surpassed the annual target of 2,607 cards.   Currently, Chinese customers account for 25 percent of Elite Card’s total portfolio of 13,000 members.  Sources:  Krungthep Turakij Bangkok Post

• The Board of Investment had revised investment privileges for the 10 Special Economic Zones in Thailand, valid until the end of 2021.   These comprise an 8-year exemption of income tax, a 50 percent tax exemption for 5 years and an exemption of import duty for machinery and materials for re-export.  They are applicable to 14 target sectors such as agriculture, electronics, medical equipment and tourism.  Source:  Post Today

• The cabinet approved of an 8.8 billion Baht budget for the state-sponsored price guarantee scheme for oil palm for year 2021 harvest season, valid unti; September this year.  The guaranteed price for fresh palm nuts is set at 4 Baht per kg.  The sharp rise in domestic price of fresh palm nuts last year had also raised the price of domestic cooking palm and increased the living cost of the people.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• The National Science and Technology Development Agency will allocate 6 billion Baht in fiscal year 2021 to develop innovation, science and technology to add more value to agriculture and food industries as part of the government’s BCG economic initiative.  Half of the budget will go to the Eastern Economic Corridor of Innovation project in Rayong, for which its construction will be completed at the end of 2021.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Krungthai Bank advised that the Thai government must invest 820 billion Baht in the next 5 years to implement the Bio-Circular-Green economic projects in a bid to improve the country’s competitiveness.  This will raise Thailand’s investment ratio to GDP to reach 28 percent of GDP in 5 years.  BCG economic models will add value to Thailand’s export sectors including agriculture & food, automotive & parts; chemicals, rubber & plastic; and energy.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Most of the 60 billion Baht government savings bond were sold out within less than 2 weeks, according to the Ministry of Finance.   The funds raised will be used to combat COVID-19.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 9 February 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 15 Dec, totally confirmed cases from clusters
189	23,746	63	18,366 (at 77.34%)	19,509
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding
179 [123 (get tested in hospital) + 56 (active case finding)]	10 (in SQ)	5,301	872 [863 reported by BMA yesterday + 9 by CCSA today]	79 (+0)	13,439

• Chinese chargé d’affaires Yang Xin paid a courtesy visit to the PM on the upcoming Lunar New Year and pledged that Beijing has approved Sinovac vaccine and will be shipped to Thailand as soon as possible.—Thai Rath
• Deputy PM and Public Health Minister Anutin said that Thailand affirmed the procurement of 2 million doses and will be shipped to Thailand in phases: 200,000 in February; 800,000 in March; and 1 million dose in April. The top public health official also said that everyone in Thailand, including migrant workers and work permit holders will be vaccinate. DPM Anutin also said that should Russian Sputnik vaccine like to access Thai market, it is welcomed. As for other vaccines from Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Moderna, Public Health Minister Anutin said the producers have contacted but there are some conditions that are unacceptable.–Matichon
• The Office of Ombudsman issued an order that local authorities or private sectors cannot procure the vaccines directly from the producers. The ombudsman said that in order to procure and administer vaccines effectively, only the government has the authority to administer the vaccines at this first stage.—Krungthep Turakij
• The two waves of COVID pandemic spread has jeopardised employment environment in Thailand, making fresh graduates face the unprecedented unemployment, according to human resources in many businesses.—Thai Enquirer

Politics

• United Nations independent human rights experts voiced grave concerns over increasingly severe use of lèse-majesté laws in Thailand, warning that a rise in their usage is further restricting civic space and the enjoyment of fundamental freedoms in the country. The UN experts said that they “have repeatedly emphasized that lèse-majesté laws have no place in a democratic country”. The release said they are alarmed with the 43 years terms ruled against a 60-year-old former civil servant. The UN body “call on the authorities to revise and repeal the lèse-majesté laws, to drop charges against all those who are currently facing criminal prosecution and release those who have been imprisoned under for the exercise of their rights to freedom of expression and of peaceful assembly”.—United Nations
• This morning, the Coalition whip revealed that the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) will file an urgent motion to submit the censure debate to the Constitutional Court whether the motion which includes matters related to the monarchy is constitutional. The Coalition whip denied the allegation that the government is going to defer or render the debate nullified. –Matichon
• There will be the other main gathering at the skywalk MBK Centre from 5.00pm protesting against the government failures to resolve economic hardship.

Analysis/opinion

• The spotlight of the upcoming censure debate is on Education Minister Natthaphol as he will face the grilling from the Opposition and some factions in the PPRP. There are reports that people in the Coalition have sent information to the Opposition to help grill the minister. Now there is an emerging faction in the PPRP (comprising of Deputy Finance Minister, Deputy Agriculture Minister and Deputy labour Minister) which is getting stronger as the group is the inner circle  to the DPM and PPRP leader Prawit. The so-called ‘Three Deputies’ group also holds the largest MP faction in the party and will determine whether the Education Minister will get the least votes, not to mention the political future. It is reported that in the party’s executives meeting to determine candidate for the byelection in Nakhon Sri Thammarat, Education Minister and Deputy Agricultural Minister Thammanat clashed as the former voted not to file candidate under the party’s banner.—Thai Post, Thai Rath, Krungthep Turakij

Economic:

• Thais’ spending during Chinese New Year is expected to plunge to the lowest level in 13 years, according to a survey by the Thai Chamber of Commerce University.  Consumer spending is forecasted to fall by 21.85 percent to 44.9 billion Baht from 57.63 billion Baht in 2020.  This 12 billion Baht drop will contribute to a GDP contraction of 0.05 -0.07 percent.  Spending should improve by the end of February as the government’s stimulus packages, namely the Rao Chana cash handout and Rao Rak Kan social security payment schemes, take effect.  Sources:  Bangkok Post  Thai Rath
• Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) estimated the number of domestic trips during Chinese New Year (12-14 Feb 2021) to tally 235,964 million and to generate 602 million Baht, with 15 percent hotel occupancy rate.  This year’s projection is a far cry from year 2020 (24-30 Jan), which recorded 1.15 million domestic trips, 3.5 billion Baht of revenue and hotel occupancy rate of 75.6 percent.  Moreover, international tourists brought in an additional 5.1 billion baht that brought the total 2020 tourism revenue to 8.6 billion Baht.  The year 2021 estimate is also constrained by only 63.4 percent of total areas nationwide being open to tourism.  Short-haul provinces such as Nakhon Nayok, Phetchaburi and Prachuap Kiri Khan expected to receive the most domestic tourists.  Sources:  Bangkok Post  Krungthep Turakij
• Finance Minister has Arkhom has assigned the Export-Import Bank of Thailand to devise financial measures to help the airlines that are hard hit by the pandemic, but the plan is not yet submitted.  He noted the Finance Ministry is unlikely to provide the soft loans to the airlines through the Public Service Account as the Finance Ministry will have to shoulder the difference in market interest and soft loan interest.  Source:  Bangkok Post  INN News
• Commerce Ministry reported that in 2020, some 252 foreign investors were granted permission to operate businesses in Thailand through the Foreign Business Act. Of this figure, 36 percent comprises Japanese investors, followed by Singapore, Netherlands and Hong Kong.  This generated employment for 11,000 people. The highest investment value went into infrastructure projects, such as consultancy service for high-speed rail connecting the 3 airports to the EEC and the S-Curve industries, specifically digital sector. Investment prospect for 2021 remains bright, as investors remain keen to explore opportunities in the digital segment and its supply chain due to COVID-19 outbreak. 
• In 21 years, from 1999 – 2020, the Foreign Business Act had given permission to 5,824 foreigners to invest in Thailand, which brought in 323 billion Baht in investment value.  The top investors were Japanese, Singapore and Hong Kong.  Source:  Thansettakij
• Industry Ministry expects the value of exports of polylactic acid to rise by 16.6 percent this year to 2.7 billion Baht, with an additional 6,800 tonnes to be shipped out.  This will make Thailand the world’s third largest exporter.  Demand for this type of biodegradable plastic is surging because it is environmentally–friendly, with the government planning to promote bio-chemical products as part of the BCG economic model as well as to establish Thailand as the bio-chemical hub in ASEAN by 2027.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• The Real Estate Information Centre expects land prices in Greater Bangkok to soar in the second half of 2021 due to forecast of an economic recovery.  Last year, land prices in Greater Bangkok reported a YoY increase of 17.1 percent at locations near mass transit lines that soared 2-4 times above overall land price.  For example, land prices near the Blue Line topped the growth rate in Q4 last year at 67.6 percent YoY.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 8 February 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 15 Dec, totally confirmed cases from clusters
186	23,557	63	17,410 (at 73.91%)	19,320
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding
176 [141 (get tested in hospital) + 35(active case finding)]	10 (in SQ)	6,068	863 [860 reported by BMA yesterday + 3 by CCSA today]	79 (+0)	13,383

• After the Friday’s report by Workpoint Today that Thailand will be the only country in Southeast Asia not to receive the vaccine under COVAX facility scheme, over the weekend senior officials came out to defend Thailand’s stance on not joining the multilateral cooperation:
  • In the new PM Podcast programme, the PM said the Disease Control Department and National Vaccine Institute have consulted with relevant authorities and found out that under the current procurement regulations, Thailand cannot advance the budget to the scheme that yet to know the result of vaccine development.—Royal Thai Government website
  • The director of the National Vaccine Institute said that even though Thailand has submitted letter of intent to join the multinational cooperation since the beginning, but as the COVAX scheme will not benefit Thailand as the middle-income country, Thailand decides not to join the initiative at this stage.—Thai Rath

Politics

• The main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) will not file any candidate under the party banner in local elections. The deputy spokesperson of the PPRP said that the party remains consistent with its approach not to file any candidate under the party names even for the upcoming municipal local elections to be held on 28 March.—Than Settakij
• There is more confirmed information on the charter rejig processes:
  • The CDA information will be as followed:
    • 200 CDA members, all elected using province as constituency;
    • 240 days’ timeframe (different from the Opposition 120 days);
    • 500 votes from both chambers are required for passing the first and third reading of the proposal–Prachachat
  • A vocal MP from PPRP said that in the Parliament meeting on 9 February, he will propose a motion to bring the CDA motion to the Constitutional Court for fear that the CDA would be interpreted as abolition of the regime.–Matichon
  • The Coalition whip gave an interview with a media that in the committee to set up Constitutional Drafting Assembly, the PPRP MPs will vote for the motion proposed to submit the CDA establishment proposal to the Constitutional Court whether the CDA is constitutional.—Inside Thailand
• The Coalition whip also dismissed the reports that a faction (with 30 MPs) in the PPRP will vote against the party resolution to take Education Minister down in the censure debate. He affirmed the main coalition party’s unity.—Inside Thailand
• In the latest move to disrupt the party, main Opposition Pheu Thai Party launched its new campaign ‘The Change Maker’ recruiting younger generations to join their campaign in seeking Thailand’s future.—Thai Rath
• After the Ministry of Digital Economy for Society’s request to take down a FB Live clip of Opposition Progressive Movement leader Thanathorn was at the court last week as it would threaten national security, this morning the Criminal Court dismissed the case. The court said the FB Live targeted the government management, with minor mention to the stockholders of the company and did not jeopardise national security.–Matichon
• Former secretary-general of the PPRP and Energy Minister Sonthirat Sonthijirawong gave a rare interview regarding reports that the ‘Fantastic 4’ (former ministers and key figures in PPRP) is eying to set up a new party or joining hands with former Pheu Thai Chief Strategist Sudarat Keyuraphan. Mr Sonthirat said he and the group have not thought about their political futures. The current Parliament has two more years tenure and it is too early to decide. He also said he cannot respond to the rumours that the group will join Sudarat to set up a new party.—Krungthep Turakij

Analysis/opinion

• The upcoming censure is a high stake for both the coalition and opposition alike. As for the coalition, the rifts between the main ruling PPRP and Democrat have increased the concerns that documents only seen by insider will be leaked to the Opposition. As for the Opposition, the last poor performance of the debate which ultimately failed to grill Deputy PM Prawit and Interior Minister Anupong has been regarded as whether the Opposition will repeat the flaws.—Krungthep Turakij
• The spotlight of the upcoming BMA governor election will be placed on Democrat and Move Forward Party’s younger candidacies. It is believed that Prinn Panitchpakdi, son of former UNCTAD’s secretary-general who has a very healthy relationship with the Democrat leader will join the ballot under the Democrat party. Meanwhile, for Move Forward Party, Ariya Banomyong, grandchild to Pridi Banomyong, stateman and one of the masterminds of the 1932 Revolution, might join the progressive platforms of the party, considering his tech backgrounds in the governor’s election.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic:

• Commerce Ministry will propose to parliament on Tuesday the ratification of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade pact.  MoC warned that the Thai private sector needs to make adjustments on trade promotions, investment protection, intellectual-property, e-commerce and trade competition for SMEs and government procurement.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Following the International Economic Policy Committee meeting on CPTPP on Friday, chaired by DPM and Foreign Minister Don, the government said it will decide if Thailand should apply to join the trade pact in 3 months, before the CPTPP meeting convenes in August.  The government’s related agencies will take this time to conduct in-depth studies by building on the recommendations made by the parliament-appointed CPTPP committee.  Sources:  Bangkok Post Prachachat Turakij  Thai Rath
• Headline inflation dropped by 0.34 percent YoY in January 2021, marking the 11^th straight monthly decline since March 2020.  This is largely attributable to the 4.82 percent drop in energy prices, a fall in fuel tariff and decline in the prices of rice.  Core inflation was 0.21 percent.  January 2021 was also the first month Commerce Ministry used 2019 as the base year in calculating Consumer Price Index.  The previous base year was 2015.   Source:  Bangkok Post
• Finance Ministry said it has to hold off reforming the government’s revenue collection, which is a move to implement long-term fiscal expansionary policy framework in the future.  Revenue collection to GDP ratio has dropped from 18 percent to 14 percent due to the pandemic.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and e-commerce are expected to continue spurring industrial property growth, thanks to the government’s stimulus packages and investment in infrastructure from railways and motorways to seaports.  According to Colliers International and CBRE, demand for industrial estates is recovering, with EEC seeing a significant increase in land prices.  The Board of Investment also noted that much of the FDI in the first 9 months of 2020 went into the EEC.  The trend is supported by the increasing demands for warehouse and factories as China-based manufacturers consider relocating their production base to Southeast Asia to be cost-efficient.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 5 February 2021

 News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 15 Dec, totally confirmed cases from clusters
586	22,644	63	15,331 (at 67.70%)	18,407
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding
573 [47 (get tested in hospital) + 526 (active case finding)]	13 (in SQ)	7,234	820 [802 reported by BMA yesterday + 18 by CCSA today]	79 (+0)	12,824

• Deputy PM and the Public Minister Anutin said in a remark that Thailand will import the first doses of AstraZeneca’s vaccine from Asia after Europe enforced export controls. The European Union (EU) last week set restrictions on the export of vaccines from the bloc through to March to ensure it will secure the supplies it had bought in advance, including shots from AstraZeneca Plc. The top public health official said that Thailand will procure the vaccine ‘from somewhere in Asia’ without elaborating any specific country.–Reuters
• CCSA revealed the result of active case finding in factories in Bangkok that out of 7,485 active findings, there were 46 positive cases within 84 factories in six districts in Bangkok.
• The head of Phuket Tourism Association gave an interview that tourism businesses in the Southern resort island Phuket that should the international tourism does not return by 1 October, they can’t hold their breath any longer. Lunar New Year used to be their glimmer of hope, but with the second wave of spreading, that hope is gone. The tourist businesses in Phuket are eying to open their island to vaccinated international tourist and have submitted the proposal to the government via the Governor Office.—Inside Thailand
• A Thai media reported on the COVAX report regarding vaccine distribution which showed that by June, Thailand will be the only country in Southeast Asia not to receive the vaccine under the multinational cooperation. In the latest development, the Director-General of Disease Control Department said it is difficult to provide funding for a project where Thailand will not get the free vaccine.—Workpoint Today

Politics

• The committee to consider the Constitution Amendment had a resolution to amend the numbers of vote required for the first reading to pass to be two-third of both chambers (more than 500 out of 750), formerly the Coalition proposed three-fifth (450 votes). The Parliament will have the discussion on the second reading on 24-25 February.–ThaiPBS
  • The committee spokesperson from the Opposition Phue Thai Party said the resolution, despite the Constitution’s designation of two-third of both chambers, will make the amendment process more difficult. The Opposition MP said that the resolution is from a main ruling Palang Pracharat Party MP Paiboon and said that the numbers of votes do not matter more than the sincerity of the government in amending the constitution.—Matichon
• The byelection in the Southern province of Nakhon Sri Thammarat which has caused a potential rift between the PPRP and Democrat parties is seeing a resolution:
  • PPRP Executives held a meeting with Deputy PM Prawit chaired the meeting. The party executive had an anonymous vote to file a candidate to campaign for the byelection in the province under their party banner. The executives who voted for cited the need to secure the district; meanwhile, the executives who voted against cited the coalition unity. The vote result was 10 for, 8 against and 2 abstain.—Siam Rath
  • The Democrat Party Deputy Spokesperson said that the party accepted the PPRP decision as all party has the rights in filing candidate under democratic polity.He does not want to see any retaliation anymore as the people would like to see coalition works for the country.–Matichon
• The coup in Myanmar is still on bulletin:
  • Yesterday, a small group of Myanmar and like-minded Thai gathered in front of Myanmar Embassy in a symbolic gesture in defiant of the coup. The gathering ended peacefully at around 8.30 pm.–Matichon
  • The putsch and the potential sanctions are making Thai and Japanese firms cautious to pursue businesses on three grounds: the possibility that the U.S. and Europe will reimpose sanctions on the Southeast Asian country, the reputational risk of doing business under a military regime, and policy uncertainty. Analysts and businesses are concerning that the coup in Myanmar will directly affect Thailand and Japan as the two major investors in the country. For example, Amata Corp., Thailand’s largest industrial estate developer, said on Tuesday it has suspended development of its first industrial estate in Yangon due to foreign investors taking a wait-and-see approach.—Asia Nikkei Review
• Former Pheu Thai Chief Strategist Sudarat Keyuraphan gave an exclusive interview with a media outlining her prospective political party stance. In her view, as there is no way out in the current political gridlock, the party will have two stances and three main policies. The two stances are first, the new party will not touch upon the monarchy and will not involve the institution; second, the new party will empower “smaller people”. The party will target to dismantle the bureaucratic state which has been expanded tremendously since the NCPO coup in 2014. The new party will focus its policies on 1. Supporting democracy through constitutional amendment or the new constitution, 2. Representing “smaller people” in the society and 3. Reducing inequality. As for the highly expected BMA election, Sudarat said that it is too fast for the new party to recruit a candidate. She also revealed that there are all announced candidate come to see her seeking endorsement. The party that is going to be officially debut soon will be the ‘last masterpiece’ from the veteran female politician.—Krungthep Turakij

Analysis/opinion

• Thai Rath has issued yet another opinion piece on the upcoming censure debate as a back-stabbing game from within the coalition. There are various rifts within the coalition: within the PPRP and between the PPRP and Democrat. As for within the PPRP, the competition for the party endorsement for its BMA governor candidate has caused the rifts between the Deputy PM and party leader Prawit who has shown support for former Police Chief Chakthip and the former PDRC faction (reportedly under PM Prayut clique) who endorse Taya Teepasuwan. It is believed that in the censure debate there will be a bit of mercy from the Prawit faction not to help the Opposition to grill the former PDRC faction as the PM is going to use the latter clique to set up a new political party. (Yesterday’s opinion piece hinted that DPM Prawit will ‘give a lesson’ to Education Minister, partner of Taya, in the censure debate) As for PPRP-Democrat rifts, the competition in the byelection in Nakhon Sri Thammarat will make the unity in jeopardy.—Thai Rath

Economic:

CPTPP

• DPM and Foreign Minister Don is set to preside over the International Economic Policy Committee meeting today to discuss the 4 recommendations made by the parliament-appointed CPTPP Committee with regards to Thailand’s accession to the trade pact.  The International Economic Policy Committee will study the recommendations and conduct further studies to reach a conclusion on  whether or not Thailand should accede to CPTPP within 90 days.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij

• The Thai Agriculture and Farmers Association said the parliament-appointed CPTPP Committee will secretly meet today to support Thailand to accede to the CPTPP before vouching for the cabinet to endorse the same decision on 9 February.  The Association expressed dissent towards the Committee’s move and is prepared to rally farmers nationwide to oppose to Thailand’s accession, particularly if Thailand has to join UPOV 1991.  Source:  Thansettakij

Others

• Finance Ministry countered the allegation that the Thailand’s fiscal position is near bankruptcy by citing Thailand’s strong economic fundamentals.  Indicators include the country’s consistent GDP growth; high foreign reserves (USD259 billion as of Jan 22) that is 3 times more than Thailand’s short-term debt; and low public debt to GDP ratio of 52.1 percent (valued at 8.1 trillion Baht as of 31 Dec).  Finance Ministry also noted that Thailand’s high foreign reserve, strong fiscal position and high potential for portfolio inflows led it to top the Bloomberg’s list as the number 1 Emerging Market Economy.  Thailand is also ranked number 1 in Bloomberg’s Health-Efficiency Index 2020 for its highly efficient healthcare system.  The Thai economy has also bottomed out and has started to pick up.  Sources:  Krungthep Turakij  Bangkok Post Matichon  Thansettakij

• University of Thai Chamber of Commerce said consumer confidence index (CCI) hit a 9-month low and also fell for the 2^nd straight month in January 2021.  CCI fell to 47.8 from 50.1 in December due to concerns about COVID-19 resurgence.  Consumer spending is expected to pick up in Q2 of 2021 as the 3 stimulus packages worth a combined 300 billion Baht kick in, which could bolster the economy to grow by 3.4 percent this year if there are no hindrances from politics, the Baht and vaccine distribution.  Source: Bangkok Post

• The 3 economic stimulus packages are the 210-billion-Baht Rao Chana cash handout scheme that could contribute to 1.2 percent of economic growth; the second phase of the co-payment subsidy scheme Khon La Kreung worth 53 billion Baht that can boost growth by 0.3 percent and the 40-billion-Baht social security payment for Section 33 insured workers that could boost growth by 0.2 percent.  Source:  Thai Rath

• State welfare card holders totalling 13.8 million people will receive the first COVID-19 cash transfer of 675 – 700 Baht per person from the Rao Chana scheme for the first time today.  Users of the Pao Tang app who have previously registered for the domestic tourism scheme (Rao Tiew Duay Gun) and state co-payment subsidy scheme (Khon La Kreung) can check their eligibility today, with cash set to be transferred to them on 8 February.   Source:  Thansettakij

• Commerce Ministry has teamed up with 11 digital platforms to roll out new discount campaign until Feb 28 to relieve people’s economic hardship.  The campaign offers discounts as steep as 60 percent in 4 categories: foods and beverages; delivery fees; utility payment fees such as power and water bills; and purchases from fresh markets.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• At the Joint Public and Private Sector Consultative Committee on Commerce meeting, DPM and Commerce Minister Jurin has reached solutions to ease the shipping container shortage problem and will open more border checkpoints to boost trade.  The proposals will be submitted for the cabinet’s consideration on 9 February.  Source:  Bangkok Post Thai Post

• Nissan Asean vows to spend tens of billions of baht making Thailand an electric vehicle (EV) hub for export worldwide, expecting up to 250 million EVs will hit the streets in Asean.  Source:  Bangkok Post