Headlines summary as of 26 January 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 15 Dec, totally confirmed cases from clusters
959	14,646	63	10,892 (at 74.37%)	10,409
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding
937 [89+848 (active case finding)]	22 (in SQ)	3,679	721 [700 reported by BMA yesterday + 21 by CCSA today]	75 (+0)	5,532

• Thai health authority said it is ready to inoculate the first batch of Astra Zeneca vaccine to high-risk groups. Public Health Ministry is eyeing to jab 50,000 doses on 14 February to frontline health workers on a voluntary basis through Line Official Account. The health workers will need to register on 12 February. Assistant to the Public Health Minister said that the national vaccine committee will needs to decide which group will be on this first round of inoculation, but in principle, it should be health workers in Samut Sakhon, Bangkok, Mae Sot in Tak Province and Southern bordering provinces.–Matichon

Politics

• There are more details on the reasons why the Opposition are aiming to grill ten ministers:

Position	Name	Censure grounds
Prime Minister	Prayut Chan-o-cha	Administrative failures, lack of effectiveness and leadership, not faithful in constitutional monarchy, violating human rights,  undermining the healthy relationship between the monarchy and the people, exploiting the monarchy as to defend the government politically and so on
Deputy PM	Prawit Wongsuwan	Intentionally violating the constitution and nepotism
Deputy PM and Public Health Minister	Anutin Charnvirakul	Administrative failures, failing to curb COVID-19 outbreak and trying to conceal the vaccine procurement information
Deputy PM and Commerce Minister	Jurin Laksanawisit	Administrative failures, being a hypocrite, lack of good governance
Interior Minister	Anupong Paochinda	Administrative failures and nepotism
Education Minister	Nataphol Teepsuwan	Disrespecting human rights and good governance
Labour Minister	Suchart Chomklin	Administrative failures, failing to control migrant workers well enough to cause the second wave of transmission
Transport Minister	Saksayam Chidchob	Nepotism and corruption
Deputy Interior Minister	Niphon Bunyamanee	Lack of morals and nepotism
Deputy Agricultural Minister	Thamanat Prompow	Administrative failures, conflict of interest, unfit to the ministership, appointing the de facto partner as political officials.

• There are more updates related to the alleged conflict of interest of the national vaccine strategy and the King-owned Siam Bioscience Co.:
  • Yesterday, a small group of protestors led by Parit ‘Penguin’ Chiwarak gathered in front of the Siam Bioscience headquarter, questioning the conflict of interest in the local vaccine production under the Astra Zeneca’s formula.—Krungthep Turakij
  • The PM gave a media brief asking people “not to connect the vaccine production deal with the King, even though the company has connection to the King”. The PM added that in the production process, the government has asked for the royal permission and will finance the operation cost.—Nation TV

Analysis/opinion

• A media viewed the competition for the upcoming Bangkok Governor election by two potential candidates who have very close ties to the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party as the last straw of the intra-party conflicts. Main figures of different factions are reportedly said that should one day Deputy PM Prawit no longer serve as the party leader, there is no single faction which could hold the party together. A main figure in the party analysed that in the near future, Thai political landscape, particularly in Bangkok, will be ruled by either Left or Right; either Orange (Future Forward Party’s colour) or Yellow (Royalist). The analysis showed that there are three main figures which could determine who can ultimately win over the gubernatorial seat: former Deputy PM and People’s Democratic Reform Committee’s secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban who still have a strong fans in Bangkok; former Pheu Thai chief strategist Sudarat Keyurapan whose political stronghold is in Eastern Bangkok; and the Prime Minister who also has a strong supporter in Bangkok and his popularity has helped PPRP won 12 MPS.—Krungthep Turakij

Australia

• Ambassador McKinnon did an exclusive interview on bilateral relations on the Australia Day occasion. Australia and Thailand has been enjoying the long-standing close relations from being top 10 investment partner, defence collaborations, education to ASEAN engagements. Australian-Thai relations vis-à-vis ASEAN are in Mekong sub-region development, whereby Canberra provides financial support to country in the subregion on different schemes, including the COVID-19 vaccine. Ambassador mentioned the Royal Visit of King Rama IX and Queen Sirikit to Australia in 1962, setting the milestone as the first non-UK monarch to visit Australia at the time. The relationship also expands to broader political engagement with the fresh escalation of ties to that of Strategic Partnership. Economically, both countries enjoyed having free trade agreement and being part of regional RCEP. Ambassador was quoted saying Australia wanted to see India joining the RCEP and that the spotlight is now on the fresh Biden administration. The interview ended with the concerns on Australian-Chines trade disputes. China has been using means to disrupt the bilateral trade and raising restrictions on many Australian core export products. Canberra has been very open in negotiating with Beijing on the issue, but didn’t have a response. The dispute is now with the WTO.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic:

Ambassador McKinnon’s interview

• Australian Ambassador Allan McKinnon PSM decried the high excise tax Thai authorities imposed on Australian wines exclusively to The Nation.  A separate interview with the Thai Excise Department revealed that authorities think they could collect more tax revenue on wine, although they are currently revising the tax regime.  The article also features a 1-minute video clip of Ambassador McKinnon discussing about TAFTA and the sound trade and investment relationship between Thailand and Australia.  Ambassador McKinnon also praised the Thai government for taking actions on improving its business environment in order to facilitate foreign businesses to establish its presence here.  Source: The Nation

Financing for COVID-19 Stimulus Packages

• Finance Ministry reported that it has borrowed 39 percent (39.4 billion Baht) of the 1-trillion-Baht loan allocated for combating COVID-19 in year 2020.  The remaining loan will be made in 2021, with public debt to GDP expected to reach 56 percent.  Included in the debt management plan is the procurement of budget worth 210 billion for the Rao Chana cash-handout scheme.  Overall, Finance Ministry plans to borrow 2.3 trillion Baht in FY2021 from bond issuance, Treasury Bills, Promissory Notes and loan from Asian Development Bank.  Source:  Prachachat Turakij
• Finance Ministry will issue ‘Rao Chana’ government savings bonds worth 60 billion Baht to raise funds for COVID-19 economic relief and recovery projects. 
• The first batch of bonds worth 5 billion Baht will be distributed through the Public Debt Management Office’s wallet app from 1-19 February.  The bonds have a 5-year maturity date, with a step-up interest of 2 percent per annum.
• The remaining 55 billion Baht will be issued through 5, 10, and 15-year bonds.  The step-up interest is 2 per cent annually for 5-year bond; 2.5 per cent for 10-year bond; and 1.8 percent for 15-year bond.  The 5 and 10-year bond will be offered to the public through 4 banks from February 5 to 15.  The 15-year bond will be offered to NGOs designated by Finance Ministry from February 16-19.  Sources:  Ministry of Finance Press Release  The Nation  Bangkok Post

Tourism

• Tourism and Sports Ministry reported Thailand received 6.7 million international visitors last year, with revenue of 332 billion Baht, equivalent to an 82.6 percent plunge from 2019.  The Tourism Department plans to generate 3 billion Baht from international film crews in 2021.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Tourism Authority of Thailand reveals that 35 percent of tourism businesses from the 1884 businesses surveyed from 1- 15 January have shut down as a result of COVID-19.   Source:  Khao Sod

Others

• The Craft Beer Association of Thailand (CBAT) demanded that the government drop the ban on alcohol sales in restaurants and allow bars to re-open.  CBAT members were worst hit this time than the previous pandemic outbreak as the government has banned online sales of alcoholic beverages since 7 December 2020.  CBAT members rallied at the COVID-19 task force’s headquarters as well as the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration to submit their request.  Interior Ministry will pass their request to CCSA for consideration.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• The Eastern Economic Corridor Office (EECO) signed an MOU with PTT Group to develop the Eastern Fruits Economic Corridor (EFC) in Rayong province.  The 350-million-Baht project will feature blast freezer and cold storage unit to boost the trade of value-added agricultural products in the eastern region, in line with the government 5-year agricultural plan (2020-2024).  Land spanning 40 rai located in the Smart Park industrial Estate in Map Ta Phut will be allocated to this project.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 25 January 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 15 Dec, totally confirmed cases from clusters
187	13,687	63	10,662 (at 77.90%)	9,450
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding
61+116 (active case finding)	10 (in SQ)	2,950	700 [678 reported by BMA yesterday + 22 by CCSA today]	75 (+2: a 61-year-old UK male travelling to Thailand on Christmas Eve; a 56-year-old Thai female who got infected from her husband)	4,684

• There are more clarity in the Thai national vaccine strategy:
  • Over the weekend, the Government Spokesperson conveyed the PM’s message on private sector’s import of COVID vaccine. The government spokesperson said that the PM has a policy of allowing private sectors to import the vaccine, but it must get Food and Drug Administration’s approval which is based on three principles: Quality, Safety and Effectiveness of the vaccine.—Thai Rath
  • On the global vaccine pooling effort COVAX facility, the director-general of the Disease Control Department responded to the inquiries why Thailand does not join WHO’s COVAX scheme in sorting vaccine. The program is now dispatching Pfizer’s vaccine to lower-income countries. The DG said that “initially, Thailand planned to join the scheme, but in the negotiation we knew that this scheme is providing free vaccine for low-income country. Thailand, as a middle-income, will not get the free vaccine.” The DG added that should Thailand join the initiative, Thailand needs to provide funding to support and gets vaccines in return at a normal price. If vaccine proofs to be unsuccessful, the DG said “we will not get the money back, so it is difficult to fund the project.” It didn’t mean, however, that Thailand decide not to join COVAX after all. Thailand is requesting to get vaccine at a lower price.–Matichon
• The COVID positive DJ, who has been travelling to many places, including Banyan Tree Hotel on Sathorn Road, has been spreading the virus to 19 more cases. The origin of the cluster is a 33-year-old male who travelled to nightclubs in Chiang Mai and joined the DJ birthday party on 9 January.–Matichon
  • A virologist at Chulalongkorn University posted on his social media that the COVID positive case of a vocal DJ in Bangkok could potentially be the new super spreader. The doctor suggested to avoid partying even with colleagues and that there might be a lot of people who got infected but didn’t realise.—Krungthep Turakij
• The Deputy CCSA spokesperson warned that tomorrow Thailand will see a high spike surge in COVID cases, as there have been more than 800 cases of cases in Samut Sakhon due to active case finding.
• It is expected that in the plenary CCSA meeting, there will be a discussion on the easing of lockdown, including allowing dine-in until 11.00pm (currently at 9.00 pm). If approved, then it will need to get cabinet approval. The proposal was from the Thai Restaurant Association.–Matichon
• Their Majesties the King and Queen have given Empress Analysis Mobile Unit that has the capacity to test 70 samples within three hours testing time.—all media outlet

Politics

• The Opposition has submitted the name list of Ministers to be grilled in the upcoming censure debate:
  • Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha
  • Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan
  • Deputy Prime Minister and Public Health Minister Anutin Chanvirakul
  • Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit
  • Labour Minister Suchart Chomklin
  • Interior Minister Anupong Paojinda
  • Deputy Agriculture Minister Thammanat Prompao
  • Deputy Interior Minister Nipon Bunyamanee
  • Education minister Natthapol Teepsuwan
  • Transport Minister Saksayam Chidchob–Matichon
• Super Poll released its latest poll on the enforcement of Article 112 lese majeste. 97.2 percent of the samples agreed with the Digital Economy Ministry’s prosecution of a opposition leader Thanathorn Jungrungreungkij from his FB Live questioning the King owned pharmaceutical company involvement and monopoly on local vaccine production. The poll also shows that 93 percent of samples regard the use of Article 112 as apolitical.—Super Poll

Economic:

Australia

• The Thai media has disseminated reports from various English language news agencies including AFP, Reuters and BBC News, on Google’s threat to stop making its search engine available in Australia if the its government proceed with its planned digital media code.  The code would see digital giants such as Google and Facebook pay local media companies for providing their content in search and sharing their content on social media.  Source:  Khao Sod Krungthep Turakij Thai Rath

Foreign Policies and FTAs

• The Federation of Thai Industries expects the US-China trade war will continue under the leadership of Joe Biden, with the side effect being the US deciding to impose anti-dumping duties on car tyres exported from Thailand as it is perceived as a new production base for Chinese companies.  To this end, FTI urges Thailand to join the CPTPP as a way of diversifying its export markets and enjoy preferential tariff.   The Thai government is also expected to urge Washington to restore trade benefits for some Thai products under the GSP, which was suspended by the Trump administration.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The article asserted that COVID-19 has uneven impacts on various countries.  It identifies the worst-hit economies as those with extended lockdowns, large domestic outbreaks, reliance on international tourism and domestic political uncertainty, such as Malaysia, Thailand and The Philippines.  The World Bank and Asia Development Bank also discussed the importance of vaccine rollout to Asia’s social developments and economic growth.  Source:  Asia Focus, Bangkok Post, 25 January 2021
• RCEP and CPTPP are identified as the two mega-FTAs that will contribute to the recovery of Southeast Asian countries.  The World Bank noted that even though CPTPP has greater discipline, the RCEP is likely to increase participants’ trade and incomes by twice as much because the latter has wider country coverage, especially in Asia.  Source:  Asia Focus, Bangkok Post, 25 January 2021

Others

• Thailand’s export last year had beat the -7 percent contraction forecast.  Commerce Ministry reported that in 2020, Thai export contracted by -6.01 percent to total USD 231.5 billion, while imports dropped 12.4 percent to USD207 billion, leaving a trade surplus of USD24.5 billion.  In December 2020 alone, exports surged by 4.71 per cent to reach USD 20.082 billion, the first rise in 8 months and the highest growth in 22 months, due to recovery in demand for industrial products.  Despite the COVID-19 resurgence in many Thai export markets, goods transport had not been badly disrupted since countries had imposed zoned restrictions and not national lockdowns.  For 2021, Commerce Ministry forecasts exports to grow by 4-5 percent, thanks to the global economic recovery.  Source:  Ministry of Commerce Press Release  The Nation  Bangkok Post
• Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) together with the Electrical and Electronics Institute and Public Health Ministry are collaborating to support the domestic manufacturing of refrigerators to hold COVID-19 vaccines at 2-8 degree Celcius.  The refrigerators are expected to be built at half the price of imported cold storage facilities, at 40,000 – 50,000 Baht compared with 100,000 Baht for imported fridge.  The local fridges will be rolled out next month to serve the government plan to distribute 2 million doses of vaccines from February to April.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The second wave of COVID-19 outbreak is anticipated to impact Thailand’s tourism for the first 3 months of this year and generate a loss of 138 billion Baht, according to Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).  To offset this loss and maintain employment for some 100,000 workers in the tourism value chain, TAT plans to accelerate promotional campaigns targeting inbound visitors globally starting from Q2 of 2021.  Overall, TAT targets 1.2 trillion Baht in tourism revenue this year, with domestic market accounting for 58 percent and international travellers 42 percent.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Office of National Higher Education Science Research and Innovation Policy Council received the cabinet’s approval to allocate 24.4 billion Baht on R&D in FY2022, an increase from 19.9 billion in FY 2021.  The budget will be spent on developing product champions in the segments of medical equipment, AI, Electric Vehicles and next generation automobiles as well as on innovations to strengthen the country’s competitiveness.  Thailand’s overall spending in R&D in 2021 is forecasted to reach 1.5 percent of GDP (270 billion Baht), an increase from 1.09 percent of GDP in 2020.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 22 January 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 15 Dec, totally confirmed cases from clusters
309	13,104	61	10,224 (at 78.02%%)	8,867
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding
80+217 (active case finding)	12 (in SQ)	2,809	648 [635 reported by BMA yesterday + 13 by CCSA today]	71	4,384

• The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration has announced the easing of lockdown in the capital for 13 businesses and recreational activities effective as of today. The list of reopening is as followed: 

1. Gaming centers 

2. Internet cafes

3. Healthcare for the elderly

4. Sports stadiums/fields except for boxing stadiums and horse racing tracks

5. Banquet facilities but with no more than 300 people are allowed otherwise special permission is required

6. Trading venues for Buddha images

7. Tattoo parlours

8. Fitness clubs and other public areas for exercise, except personal training and classes

9. Thai traditional massage and spa facilities

10. Gyms and boxing camps, but no competition are allowed

11. Bowling and skating rings, but no competition are allowed

12. Ballroom dancing schools, but no competition are allowed

13. Martial arts schools, but no competition are allowed–National News Bureau of Thailand

• The Thai Food and Drug Administration’s secretary-general said the regulator has approved the Astra Zeneca vaccine to be used in Thailand. The first batch of 50,000 doses will arrive in Thailand in February. The vaccine provider will continue sending the second and third lots of 150,000 doses in March and April, consecutively.–Thai Rath
  • For background, only Astra Zeneca and Chinese Sino Vac have filed the documents asking for approval from Thai FDA.–Reuters

Politics

• The so-called ‘Ratsadorn’ group is scheduled to gather in front of the Parliament at 10.00 am, then the Ministry of Finance today from 1.00 pm to call for the reallocation of the budget for the monarchy and the armed forces to be transferred to help people in the economic hardship from lockdowns.
• It is reported that the House Speaker has filed the request from Opposition Seri RumThai party to the Constitutional Court to ditch vocal main ruling Palang Pracharat Party MP Sira from his representative status. There was an attempt by the Opposition to send the motion, but failed to secure the adequate number at first. MP Sira threatened to sue anyone putting their names on the motion.–Thai Rath

Economic

• Thailand has cemented its position as the world’s third top exporter of rubber products after China and Germany during the COVID-19 period, according to Commerce Ministry.   From January – November 2020, Thai export of processed rubber products surged by 7 percent YoY to total 10.9 billion USD.  Specifically, the export of rubber gloves, synthetic rubber and pharmaceutical rubber products rose by 83, 17 and 2 percent, respectively.   FTAs also contributed to this growth.  From January – November 2020, Thai rubber product export to its FTA partners grew 5 percent YoY to total 4.9 billion USD, making up 45 percent of all exported rubber products.  Export to China saw the highest growth of 22 percent and Australia by 6 percent, South Korea by 13 percent and Peru 26 percent.  Source:  Department of Trade Negotiations Press Release
• Finance Minister Akhom expects GDP in 2020 to contract by 6 percent and is confident that growth will reach 4-5 percent in 2021, supported by the vaccine rollout and fiscal stimulus packages.  The same forecast is made by World Bank through its “Restoring Incomes; Recovering Jobs” report.  World Bank commented that Thailand’s fiscal and monetary support accounting for 13 percent of GDP is considered to be high in the region, particularly the fiscal measures where 6 percent of GDP is spent on COVID-19 relief and stimulus measures.  However, the slow budget disbursal and potential under-disbursement will hamper economic recovery.  Sources:  Krungthep Turakij The Nation Bangkok Post
• The new wave of Covid-19 will delay Thailand’s economic recovery to pre-crisis levels, possibly until late next year and also affect the working hours and income of 4.7 million workers, according to the Bank of Thailand (BOT).  Recovery is anticipated to be a K-Shape, with tourism-related industries suffering the most since they have not recovered from the first wave.  Krungsri Bank added that the government does not have adequate policy tools to handle the COVID-19 fallout, in which the pandemic has struck the urban poor the most.  Source:  The Nation
• Tour operators have floated the idea of luring inbound travellers with vaccination tour packages after the first batch of inoculations are distributed to high-risk groups in February.  The idea is in the early stage of discussion and requires more deliberation.  A 1-month tour package is anticipated to cost 150,000 Baht, comprising the vaccination cost and a 14-day quarantine in an ASQ or alternative local quarantine facility.  If implemented, the package will be launched in major tourism destinations that rely heavily on international tourists.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Thailand’s exports to the US look more promising thanks to the friendlier trade policies of the new US President Joe Biden.  Commerce Ministry targets Thailand’s export to the US to see a 4 percent growth this year.  It also expects Thailand to benefit more from exports substituting for products from China, where the US still maintains tariffs for imports.  Source:  Bangkok Post  The Nation Naew Na

Headlines summary as of 21 January 2021

News

·  Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 15 Dec, total confirmed cases from clusters
142	12,795	61	9,842 (at 76.92%)	8,558
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field-hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding
88+137 (active case finding)	17 (in SQ)	2,882	635 [619 reported by BMA yesterday + 16 by CCSA today]	71	4,167

• The Government Spokesperson said in response to the more relaxed lockdown measures that despite reports on the PM going to decide on easing restriction at the end of January, as of now there is yet a confirmed date on the plenary CCSA meeting.–The Reporters 
• In a potential new super spreader, a vocal DJ has been tested COVID-positive and the health authority is investigating others who have been in close contact with him. The CCSA spokesperson said the celebrity case is not yet put into today’s COVID report (table above).

Politics

• After the leader of the Progressive Movement and defunct Future Forward Party came out to raise questions on the preferential treatment of the King-owned pharmaceutical company in the national vaccine strategy and got bombarded by the authority, yesterday the Minister assistants filed legal cases against the critic.
  • Thanathorn was charged with Article 112 lese majeste and for violating the Computer Crime Act. This is, according to Reuters, perhaps the highest-profile lese majeste case since a wave of anti-government protests emerged last year and extended to criticism of the King. Suporn Attawong, vice-minister to the PM’s Office, said the criticism violated the monarchy and hurt many Thai people’s feeling.-Reuters
  • In response to the legal case, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit held a press conference saying that the questions did not target the monarchy, but the government’s treatment of budget provided to the company owned by the King. He tackled PM Prayut who he said has always referred to the King to defend many of his political decisions. He said the charges brought against him are politically-motivated.–The Reporters
• The issue of the upcoming Bangkok Governor election is heating up again as it is reported in a media quoting a source in the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) that there is a division within the party on the person who will be filed as the party candidate.
  • On one hand, it is reported that Deputy PM and PPRP leader Prawit and Deputy Agriculture Minister Thammanat are supporting former Police Chief Chakthip Chaijinda. Meanwhile, the Bangkok key figure like the Education Minister Nutthapol Teepasuwan is eyeing to file his partner Taya for the Bangkok gubernatorial seat, either as the party candidate or as an independent.
  • The same source said that the Education Minister has called on six party MPs to support his wife’s candidacy. He is quoted saying “I will go meet with the party executive for their resolution to nominate Taya. If the executive does not agree, I will resign from the party and help his wife to run for the campaign starting from February.” The source also said the Minister is going to file Taya as the BMA Governor candidate, even though PPRP is going to nominate Chakthip.
  • Interstingly, Nutthapol is quoted saying “As PM Prayut is not going to run in the next ballot, I don’t know whether there will be PPRP in the next election. I am seeking to establish a new political party.”–PPTV
• The Lower House approved a law amendment bill that allows women with pregnancies of not more than 12 weeks to get an abortion. The bill also decriminalise doctors who perform an abortion if such conditions are met.–Matichon
• The government spokesperson said that the National Statistical Office of Thailand’s has conducted a survey which showed that 45.5 per cent of Thai people are very satisfied with the government’s performance and 47.2 per cent of Thai people are very confident with the government performance.–Thai PR Department

Australia

• The European Commission has chosen Phi Suea House in Chiang Mai for its Hydrogen Valley Mission Innovation platform, which highlights 32 large-scale hydrogen flagship projects around the world. The platform is led by the renewable and clean hydrogen co-leaders, Australia, Germany and the EU.–Nation Thailand

Economic:

• Parties interested in producing, selling or owning cannabis and hemp will be able to register to do so from 27 January when certain parts of the plant are scheduled to be removed from Type 5 narcotics list.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Thailand’s poverty ratio is expected to increase to 8.8 percent in 2020 (5.2 million people), increasing from 6.2 percent in 2019 (3.7 million people) before falling to 8.4 percent this year (5 million people), according to World Bank’s Restoring Incomes: Recovering Jobs economic monitor report.  This is attributable to the pandemic’s adverse effects on the labour market, in which unemployment was severe in the first half of 2020, with 340,000 net job losses coupled with reduced working hours.  Private sector wage declined by 1.6 percent.  Employment will pick up from 2021-2022, resulting in the fall in poverty.  World Bank suggests the government establishes training programs to improve workers’ skills and provide financial support.
• World Bank estimates that Thailand’s GDP in 2020 will contract by 6.5 percent.  GDP will rebound to a 4 percent growth in 2021 in a base-case-scenario where the pandemic outbreak is contained and a nationwide lockdown is not imposed.  If a nationwide lockdown is implemented, GDP would be only 2.4 percent in 2021.  In 2022, GDP could grow by 4.7 percent if half of the Thai population is vaccinated in mid 2020 and tourism improves.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Finance Ministry will asses economic conditions over the next 2 months before deciding if more stimulus measures are needed to supplement the cash-handout Rao Chana scheme.  Finance Minister Akhom affirmed that the government can borrow more and that there is sufficient room for disbursement of fiscal stimulus budget.
• KKP Financial Group adviser, Supavud Saicheua, said the second wave of the pandemic outbreak could shave off 1.5 percent of Thailand’s GDP growth, leading the economy to grow between 2-2.5 percent this year.  The economy would contract for a second year if the pandemic remains uncontrollable in Q2 2021 with the tourism unable to resume.  The second infection wave could also render foreign tourist arrivals to fall to 2 million this year, down from the 6-7 million projected earlier.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Tourism and Sports Ministry plans to establish a Tourism Fund based on the 300 Baht tourism fee collected from foreign visitors this year.  While the tourism fee has yet to be approved, plans are being drafted for 34 Baht from the fee to be used to provide insurance benefits to international tourists, with the rest allocated to the tourism fund.  The funds could be used to build infrastructure to enhance tourism, which is in line with the government’s Bio, Circular and Green economy.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Federation of Thai Industry forecasts that car manufacturing will increase by 5.12 percent to 1.5 million units in 2021 from 1.42 million units in 2020, on the condition that the pandemic is contained and purchasing power returns.  Although car production in 2020 declined from 2019 by 29.14 percent because of the economic slowdown, domestic car sales in December 2020 increased by 11.3 percent YoY.  It is a good sign that the domestic economy is improving.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Thai large-cap equity funds registered a contraction for the first time in 15 years, with net outflows of 20 billion Baht after the super savings funds failed to attract as much capital as the long-term equity fund.  Overall, Thailand’s mutual fund industry saw a 6.5 percent decrease in net asset value to 5 trillion Baht last year, with net outflow of 280 billion Baht because of the closure of 4 fixed income funds of TMBAM Eastspring.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 20 January 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 15 Dec, total confirmed cases from clusters
59	12,653	60	9,621 (at 76.84%)	8,416
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field hospital/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding
28+23 (active case finding)	8 (in SQ)	2,961	619 [606 reported by BMA yesterday + 13 by CCSA today]	71 (+1 a 48 years old lady in Mae Sot District, Tak)	4,130

• A private hospital conglomerate is going to sue Thai Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for monopolisation of vaccine. The executive of Thonburi Group said that FDA told their approval form for Sino Vac will take three months. Meanwhile, the government-initiated emergency import of the same Sino Vac approval is reported to have a green light within this week. The chairman of the hospital chain said that if the FDA approved merely the government’s proposal, the hospital will sue the FDA.—Than Settakij A media reached out to the FDA for comment, there is yet a response.—Inside Thailand
• With the number of daily confirmed cases dwindled, authorities are eyeing to easing the lockdowns:
  • Bangkok Metropolitan Administration will convene its meeting with its communicable disease committee tomorrow. Should the committee agrees, BMA will inform the public in due course.—Krungthep Turakij
  • The PM said after the weekly cabinet meeting that the lockdown measures seem to put the new infections under control. The PM hinted that the decision on easing the lockdown will be made at the end of this month after seeing the figure.–Manager

Politics

• Yesterday, the anti-establishment protest returns to the bulletin:
  • A university student protestor who held a paper banner criticising the King’s vaccine company was allegedly slapped in the face by the mall security guard. Yesterday, at the posh Icon Siam Department Store, the protestor hold a banner wrote “Monopolising the vaccine, creating a scene for the royals” as a defiant act against yesterday’s news on the sole rights of reproducing the AstraZeneca vaccine that King Vajiralongkorn-owned (formerly by Crown Property Bureau) Siam Bio Science has. The protestor was taken to the nearby police station.
  • A small group of student-led protestors joined the lady while she went to the police and press charges against the security guard.
  • At dusk, more protestors waited for the response from the mall’s executive who said they will decide on the action within 24 hours.–ThaiPBS
  • Twitter users launched the hashtag #แบนไอคอนสยาม Ban Icon Siam in response to the  alleged crime.—Thai Enquirer
  • Yesterday, top health officials came out to defend the royal company’s role in the national vaccine strategy.–Reuters
• Deputy PM Prawit and main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) leader said three ‘Don’t know’ to the media inquiry on 1. Whether his close aide Senator General Noppadol Inthapanya is going to set up a new political party; 2. Whether he is not on the grilling list in the upcoming censure debate; and 3. Whether he has been talking with the Opposition to have his name removed from the list?–Manager
• Main Opposition Pheu Thai Party just held a press conference saying that in the upcoming general election, the largest party in the House is going to file the party candidate in all 350 constituencies. The party leader said there will be no split party strategy. The secretary-general of the party said that the party is setting up a new committee to recruit the party candidate for MPs.—Pheu Thai Party
• Royalist Thai Bhakdhi Movement held a press conference on the set up of the royalist party aiming to tackle Kao Klai Party, Progressive Movement and student-led protestors.—Thai Bhakdhi
• The government whip said the government is ready for the censure debate to be from mid-February. Mr Wirat Ratanaset laid out the timeline of the vote of motion that should the Opposition is to submit the motion on 25 January, the debate could be from 16-19 February and the vote will be on 20 February.—Thai Post
• After claiming to be abducted by someone from the Internal Security Operation Command (Isoc), police showed CCTV footage that the protest guard Mongkol ‘Yel’ Santimethakul has been giving a false information. The police said that Yel was alone on the night he claimed to be abducted.—Thai Rath

Economic:

Cabinet’s approvals, 19 Jan 2021

• The cabinet approved for 210 billion Baht worth of handout through the “Rao Chana” (We Win) project to an estimated 31 million people who are affected by the pandemic. The funding for Rao Chana will be drawn from the 1 trillion Baht loan, from the portion allocated to coronavirus financial aid of which there is 200 billion Baht remaining.  The additional 10 billion Baht will be transferred from the portion under Economic and Social Rehabilitation budget.
• The Rao Chana handout is worth 3,500 Baht per person and will be given away for 2 months from January – February 2021.  The money will be transferred electronically to recipients.
• Eligible applicants must have a maximum of 500,000 Baht in their savings bank account and annual income not exceeding 300,000 Baht.  The handout targets informal workers who are not covered by Section 33 of the Social Security System and are not government or SoE officials.  The 13 million low-income state welfare cardholders are also eligible.
•  Those who have downloaded Pao Tung app earlier will receive the handout automatically through the app, after the government has verified their eligibility through existing data.  New applicants must register through the website www.เราชนะ.com from 29 Jan to 12 Feb.  For both groups, the payment to eligible recipients will be transferred through the Pao Tang app.  The first payment of 3,000 Baht will be made on 18 February, followed by weekly payments of 1,000 Baht for 4 weeks on Thursdays.
• State welfare card holders will automatically receive their first payment on 5 February worth 675 or 700 Baht that will added to their welfare cards.  They will receive the same amount of money weekly, on every Friday, from 12 February to 26 March. 
• Finance Minister Akhom said the Rao Chana scheme alone could boost GDP by 0.5 per cent.  The third phase of the co-payment subsidy program, Khon La Krueng, also contributes 0.5 percent.  The implementation of both schemes will ultimately boost GDP by 1 percent.  Minister Akhom admitted that the 3,500 Baht handout is sufficient only to mitigate the hardship of the people, but not enough to compensate for people’s losses.  Sources:  Ministry of Finance Press Release  Bangkok Post  The Nation

Others

•  The cabinet approved of launching the third phase of the government co-payment scheme, Khon La Krueng, after 1.34 million claims were not exercised in the earlier 2 rounds.  Online registration for the third phase opened at 6:00 am today and the 1.34 million quota was full in 10 minutes.  Eligible recipients can start spending on 25 January.  Sources:  The Nation Bangkok Post
• At Fitch Ratings’ Credit Outlook Asia Pacific 2021 Webinar, Stephen Schwartz, Head of Sovereign Rating for Asia Pacific said that the recurring pandemic outbreak has wrecked tourism, which has severely affected Thailand and The Philippines.  While Thailand has loads of buffer in public finance (ie: low public debt to GDP), Schwartz said “its near-term growth prospect is dim” primarily because of its high reliance on international tourists.  To aggravate matters, Thailand is also a “poster child for middle-income trap”.  Joanne Chau, Citigroup’s chief economist, contended that Thailand’s recovery is challenging in part because the government’s stimulus help has been “conservative”. 
• Fitch has downgraded its sovereign rating for the Thai economy to BBB+/Stable since last year, following indications of political instability.  Overall, Fitch forecasted that that Thai economy will contract by -6.3 percent in 2020 and expand by +3.9 percent in 2021.  Thailand is unlikely to experience a V-Shape given that its services sector, including tourism, will recover slowly due to prolonged restrictions and movement.  For Asia Pacific, Fitch maintains a stable outlook and is optimistic on a rebound that will outperform global growth, starting from 2021.     Source:  Bangkok Post, Fitch Ratings’ Credit Outlook Asia Pacific 2021 Webinar
• The Elite Flexible One scheme aimed at boosting condo sales received tepid response in the early stage, while a rise in membership is expected to start in March.  The Elite Flexible One scheme, launched on 1 Jan, offers a 500,000 Baht membership with a 5-year multiple-entry visa for members who purchase properties worth 10 million Baht in Thailand.  Its target group is Chinese, although another surge of pandemic outbreak could dampen sentiment.  Source: Bangkok Post
• Tisco Bank expects non-performing loan ratio to reach 3-3.5 percent of its total outstanding loan this year if there is a third wave of COVID-19 outbreak.  Already, Tisco’s gross NPL ratio is at 2.5 percent at the end of 2020.   Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 19 January 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 15 Dec, total confirmed cases from clusters
171	12,594	60	9,356 (at 74.29%)	8,357
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field hospital/  quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding
33+125 (active case finding) + 13 (entering from Myanmar)	13 (in SQ)	3,168	606 [593 reported by BMA yesterday + 13 by CCSA today]	70	4,107

• There have been significant developments regarding the COVID vaccine:
  • Deputy PM and Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul affirmed the people on the safety of the vaccine that Thai people will get, as there are vaccine committee to evaluate the safety. The head of Public Health Minister said Thai vaccine strategy will be that of voluntary basis and that the approval of vaccine will be for emergency usage, not for commercial purposes.—The Standard
  • Private hospital conglomerates are also eyeing to import COVID vaccine from different companies. It needs to get Food and Drug Administration approval first. Details are as followed:
    • Thonburi Health Care Holdings to import 1 million doses from Chinese Sino Vac to jab health officials (200 thousands) and other patients (800 thousands).
    • Principal Capital to decide on the company to jab health officials (7,000).
    • Vibhavadhi to import 60,000 doses from Moderna, aiming to offer the rate of 6,000 – 10,000 THB per dose.—Krungthep Turakij Reuters
  • Yesterday, the deputy secretary-general of Thai Food and Drug Administration (FDA) informed the public that vaccine developer AstraZeneca has filed its documents for FDA approval. It is expected to take a week for the approval process. The deputy FDA head said if approved, it would help fasten the registration process of domestic AstraZeneca vaccine production organised by Siam Bioscience Co. However, private hospitals cannot import the Astra Zeneca vaccine, as the company indicated that it will supply only to Thai government.—Thai News Agency, Manager
• After the earlier report by the Immigration Bureau spokesperson that a negative COVID-19 test result will be mandatory for every foreigner who wishes to extend their stay in Thailand, the Immigration Bureau apologised for the misunderstanding and said that it might apply only to certain types of visa, most likely the permanent resident visa.—Khao Sod English

Politics

• In the other act of defiant against the King, former leader of the defunct Future Forward Party Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit raised the question of conflict of interest in the preferential treatment on SinoVac and AstraZenaca vaccines. Thanathorn said big conglomerate Chareon Pokkaphan (CP) has 15 percent of stocks in the SinoVac production company. As for AstraZeneca vaccine which Thai Siam Bioscience has the sole rights to reproduce the vaccine locally and for export, he said the company owned entirely by King Maha Vajiralongkorn (formerly under Crown Property Bureau). The former party leader popular among younger populations questioned why Siam Bioscience which has been performing in deficit for many years is selected as the sole company to produce the biggest lot to vaccinate Thai population.– Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit The criticism seems to hit the very bull’s eye as authorities have come out to bombard Thanathorn:
  • Public Health senior officials held an ad hoc press conference against Thanathorn’s Facebook Live. The officials condemned Thanathorn of not having accurate and adequate information, citing Siam Bioscience as the sole Thai pharmaceutical company to be able to develop and reproduce the Astra Zeneca viral vector vaccine. Th director of National Vaccine Institute said it is Astra Zeneca that chose Siam Bioscience as its partner, not the government’s calls. On the issue of the company performance (deficit), the director said the company follows the footstep of King Rama IX’s philosophy of “the more we lose, the more we get”: the more the company is doing for the greater good of the people, the more deficit the company is running. On the issue of conflict of interest, the senior health official said even though the pharmaceutical company that was established by King Rama IX had received government budget in producing the vaccine, the company has expressed its intention on giving back all funding as vaccines to Thailand. The permanent-secretary of the Public Health Minister reminded Thai people of the benevolence of the Thai monarchy in providing for Thai people and condemned the critic of tarnishing the well-beloved monarchical institution.—Ministry of Public Health FB Live
  • The PM gave an interview to the media that there is no single vaccine producer that could monopolise the Thai market. He affirmed that Thailand is open to all vaccine producers, not limited to that of Astra Zeneca.–Matichon
  • The PM said in press briefing after weekly cabinet meeting that the criticism is a distortion and he said that the government will prosecute any misinformation on the internet.
  • Deputy PM and Public Health Minister said the critic of the Siam Bio Science knew anything but to be grateful to the monarchy’s benevolence.–Prachachat

• In an unexpected move, the National Reconciliation Committee introduced by the House Speaker has nominated Thoedpong Chaiyanan, veteran Democrat MP, as the head of the committee set up with the objective to resolve the fresh political conflicts. Mr Thoepong was named the chairperson without any other candidate. The committee is scheduled to meet again next Monday.–Prachachat
  • Earlier it is expected that General Chaicharn, Deputy Defence Minister will be nominated as the chairperson.–Matichon

• Today the Criminal Court has sentenced a woman to 87 years in jail Tuesday for violating the country’s lese majeste law. The lady was convicted of sharing online a secret recording discussing about the monarch and Thai history. This is, by far, the longest sentencing for the crime under the current administration.—Thai Enquirer

Analysis/opinion

• International security pundit Associate Professor Dr.Thitinan Pongsudhirak discussed on the new Biden administration and its implication on Thailand. He said Biden administration is Obama 2.0, judging from many familiar faces from Obama administration. The challenge Thai economic sector is to get the connections with both the US and China as the two are decoupling from each other. The international relations pundit regarded Thailand as a minute pawn in international political context. Thai government will face greater stumble from the Biden administration which seems to place priority on human rights and democratic election. He said if Thailand would like to strengthen relations with the US, it needs to be more democratic. The re-enforcement of Article 112 is an unacceptable thing for international community and would, in turn, put pressure on Thai government.–Prachachat

Economic:

Tourism

• Foreign arrival figures have failed to meet even rock-bottom expectations of Thailand’s Special Tourist Visa (STV) scheme, partly because of the lengthy 14-day quarantine mandatory requirement.  Just 346 overseas visitors entered Thailand on average each month on STV since October. That’s well below the government’s target of about 1,200 and a tiny fraction of the more than 3 million who came before the pandemic.  The lack of interest is adding pressure on Thai policymakers, who have struggled to accommodate both industry players calling for relaxed quarantine rules and public-health experts warning against putting its citizens in danger. All the while, as the beaches stay empty, many tourism-related companies are going out of business.  At least 931 registered tourism-related companies closed last year, according to a data from the Commerce Ministry’s Department of Business Development. The real number is probably much higher as many tourism businesses aren’t registered in any database.  Source:  Bloomberg
• The Tourism Department reported that last year, some 2,598 tour operators returned their licenses and exited the market permanently in 2020.  In fact, deregistration saw the highest record in Q4 last year with 765 companies in total, peaking in December where 293 companies returned their licenses.  Thai Travel Agents Association (TTAA) concluded that 10 percent of outbound operators have given up their licenses in December and 65-70 percent of outbound agents have closed indefinitely.  TTAA added that the outlook for outbound market is the most difficult to predict because the industry faces high uncertainty.  Source: Bangkok Post

Others

• The Thai Retailers Association (TRA) reported that its retail index plunged by -12 percent in 2020, which translates into a loss of around 500 billion Baht.  The TRA’s retail index in Q1 of 2021 is expected to continue falling by -7 to -8 percent due to the resurgence in COVID-19 infection.  The retail industry is crucial to the Thai economy, with 1.3 million operators employing 6.2 million people.  The TRA has called for the government to implement 5 measures to minimise the loss of this sector, such as collecting VAT and import tax on e-commerce transactions, which could fetch 300 billion Baht worth of state revenue.  The government should also offer hourly employment; this option would reduce overall redundancies as it allows retailers to manage manpower for peak and off-peak hours.  Through this option, the retail sector could immediately employ 52,000 people.  Sources:  Khao Sod Matichon Bangkok Post
• The Bank of Thailand and Finance Ministry are set to discuss about amending the Soft Loan Royal Decree to enable SMEs to better access loans.  The most important amendment is to waive the requirement that SMEs must be bank customers in order to be eligible the loan, as well as raise the soft loan interest rate from 2 to 5 percent to incentivise commercial banks to extend the soft loans.  A Finance Ministry source speculates that state-owned banks must still play a prominent role in providing the loans to SMEs, as these Soft Loan Royal Decree amendments are not enticing enough for commercial banks to grant the loans.  Of the Bank of Thailand’s 500 billion Baht soft loan offered last year, 120 billion Baht was disbursed to SME borrowers.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij  Bangkok Post
• The Federation of Thai Industry anticipates that domestic steel consumption will grow by 5-8 percent this year, fuelled by the government’s infrastructure projects.  This is especially prominent in the EEC area where many construction projects are underway, in addition to the high-speed and electric trains in Bangkok and the periphery areas.  Domestic demand for steel demand in 2021 is expected to surpass last year’s, as delayed construction projects are resuming this year.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Thai-Chinese joint venture company, SAIC Motor-CP, expects domestic sales of its MG car to grow 40 percent YoY to 42,000 units under the expectation of a speedy rollout of COVID-19 vaccination worldwide.  Similarly, the Chinese carmaker Great Wall Motors, reported an all-time high in annual car sales volume, having sold 1.11 million units of vehicles globally in 2020.   Its sales in December 2020 totalled 150,109 vehicles, an increase of 41.6 percent YoY.  Source:  Bangkok Post