Headlines summary as of 18 January 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 15 Dec, total confirmed cases from clusters
369	12,423	61	9,206 (at 74.10%)	8,186
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field hospital/  quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding
82+275 (active case finding)	12 (in SQ)	3,147	588 [575 reported by BMA yesterday + 13 by CCSA today]	70	3,982

• After media reports of Cambodia receiving free vaccine from China and the side-effects of vaccine candidates around the globe, the PM came out to assure the people via his FB Page that he has been placing Thai people’s safety beyond the speed of getting vaccine and that he will not allow Thailand to be experimental site of any vaccine. His policy will be to wait until the vaccine candidate is proven to be safe enough to be used with the Thai people.—Thai Rath
• The developer team of ‘Mor Chana’ COVID tracing application that Thai health authority has been promoting as a step-up measure from ‘Thai Chana’ platform told the media that they are going to detach themselves from the application in two weeks. The ‘Code for Public’ group told the media that their involvement in developing the application is on a voluntary basis and that the reasons they are resigning are first, the pressures and interventions from senior officials (Ministerial, Permanent Secretary and Director-general levels) aiming to get a total control of the application and the second reason is the inaction from a department in elevating the risk level of the confirmed case. The developer team said they feel ‘depressed’ with the so-called senior people in the administration who despite facing an unprecedented crisis such as this, still place the well-being of the taxpayer at last.–Prachachat

Politics

• The political conflict began to heat up again as
  • On Friday, after protestor guard who was summoned by the police on the lese majeste turned out not to be in the area on the day, protestors who were present to show support replaced national flag with a cloth with the sign 112 defying the royal defamation law on the flag pole in front of the police station.—Thai Post
  • The Police Chief said that the action is highly unacceptable and said the police has been instructed to avoid the use of force as much as possible, but he thinks if necessary, the force must be used. The Police Chief said whatever will be will be and that the police will not desert each other.—Thai Post
  • On Saturday, at the Victory Monument a group of student-led protest gathered to attend a symbolic gesture writing down their feeling on 112 metre-long cloth (Lese majeste is Article 112 of Thai Criminal Code). The police cited violation of Emergency Decree, raid in and apprehended protestors.–Matichon
  • In response, the protestors called for gathering at Sam Yan Intersection and the riot control police went in and apprehend four protestors. A bomb-like sound was heard at around 6.00pm. There were 4 injured.—Thai PBS
  • Deputy Metropolitan Chief gave an interview with a media that now the police has got the CCTV footage of the Thai-Japanese bridge and are investigating on the pipe bomb incident. The police said that at the times the bomb was thrown, most of the motorbikes on the Thai-Japanese bridge are protestors.—Inside Thailand
  • On Sunday, some protestors gathered in front of the Internal Security Operations Command to call for the immediate release of a protestor guard whose last post was ‘Help Me’ and his account was later used by someone who claimed to be from the ISOC. The chat also showed that the alleged user said do not report this to the police or your friend will be disappeared.—Khao Sod
  • ISOC spokesperson said that in the primary probe the ISOC does not have anything to do with this abduction.–Matichon
• Main Opposition Pheu Thai has shown yet the other sign of intra-party crack as Yutthapong Jarassathian, deputy party leader who is assigned to be the leader of this censure debate has failed to inform other party big names on the meeting on 15 January to submit names of ministers to be grilled in the upcoming no-confidence motion. The Opposition whip, a vocal politician who led the party’s committee on special affairs and MPs who are close to former Chief Strategist Sudarat are reportedly kept out of loop. And other MPs who wish to join the censure debate did not send information to MP Yutthapong for fear that the agenda and name lists will be leaked to the government.—Than Settakij
• Former Pheu Thai Chief Strategist Sudarat Keyuraphan affirmed again on Sunday as she and her team went to a site visit and help out people in a local community that she will not join Deputy PM Prawit to set up a new political party as many reports indicated. She said that her stance has been to stand up against dictatorship and with the democratic side.—Krungthep Turakij
• The news on Bangkok Governor is back on bulletin as former Police Chief Pol Gen Chaktip Chaijinda opened his FB account with more approachable persona. Media reported that there have been 10 potential candidates who are going to run for the gubernatorial seat:
  • Pol Gen Chaktip Chaijinda- former Police Chief (as main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) candidate; or Independent)
  • Taya Teepasuwan-partner of the Education Minister(as main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) candidate; or Independent)
  • Watanya Wongopasi-PPRP MP (as main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) candidate; or Independent)
  • Sakol Pattayakul-deputy Bangkok governor
  • Chadchart Sittipunt-former Transport Minister (Independent)
  • Sudarat Keyuraphan-former Pheu Thai Chief Strategist (Independent)
  • Ariya Banomyong-former LINE MD and Chanel 3 TV (Kao Klai Party)
  • Rosana Tositrakul-former Senator (Independent)
  • Tom Kruesopon-businessman and political lobbyist (Independent)
  • Suchatchavee Suwansawas-Recotr of King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang (Independent)—Krungthep Turakij

Analysis/opinion

• In relation to Chaktip’s intention to run for the Bangkok Governor:
  • It is reported that Pol Gen Chaktip was selected by Deputy PM Prawit to be the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) candidate. However, the Pol Gen has been facing opposition from the ‘Bangkok faction’ in the party, led by Education Minister and Digital Economy Minister who are eyeing to file Taya Teepasuwan (partner to the Education Minister) for the gubernatorial seat.—Inside Thailand
  • The same information is reported in the other media saying the ‘Bangkok faction’ of the party does not feel at ease with DPM Prawit’s decision. However, it is with a high possibility that the Pol gen might run as an independent, considering the legal complications as former Police Chief and Senator. Should the PPRP does not file any candidate, it is a battle between Chaktip and Taya and a big loss for the main ruling party.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic:

• The Thai government’s plan to spend 1.2 billion Baht to purchase 2 million doses of CoronaVac; the COVID-19 vaccine manufactured by the Chinese company Sinovac has raised eyebrows.  This is because Thailand’s conglomerate CP Group recentlyacquired a 15 percent share in Sinovac through its Hong-Kong based pharmaceutical arm, Sino Biophamaceutical.  A source from CP Group dismissed the speculation that CoronaVac could have control the Thai market in the future, contendingthat the Thai government is purchasing a small number of CoronaVac compared with other countries.  The source also said CP Group’s 15 percent share acquisition makes it only a minority shareholder and that the move is likely to be for investment purpose.  The Office of the Trade Competition Commission reiterated it is following this deal closely because details of the acquisition is not publicly disclosed.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• The Bank of Thailand has yet to release its official revised GDP forecast for 2021 following the resurgence of COVID-19, but had made projections based on 3 scenarios.  In the first scenario, GDP is likely to grow by 1.7 – 2.2 percent if the outbreak is contained in 2 months through the current measures and partial lockdown.  In the second scenario, GDP would see a 0.7 – 1.2 percent growth if a nationwide lockdown is imposed.  In the worst-case scenario, GDP growth could range from -0.8 to 0.2 percent if the government implements more stringent measures coupled with a nationwide lockdown.  These forecasts are a departure from the central bank’s original estimation of a 3.2 percent GDP growth for 2021.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• DPM and Energy Supattanapong asserted that the fresh wave of pandemic infection will affect Thailand’s economic growth in Q1 of 2021.  However, he is optimistic that annual GDP growth would remain at 4 percent in accordance with NESDC’s forecast last year, because the vaccine will be rolled out and international tourists start to return in April.  Source: Bangkok Post

• Thai Rice Exporters Association expects rice export will reach 6.5 million tonnes at best in 2021; up from its original forecast of 5.8 million tonnes which would have marked the lowest figure in 20 years.   The gloomy forecast is the result of low domestic rice production that further pushed up the price of Thai rice in the international market, consumers opting to buy cheaper rice such as those from India and the problem of shipping container shortage.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Ministry of Industry (MoI) aims to launch a new soft loan programme for SMEs this week through its SME D Bank.  Businesses are split into 3 groups based on the level of assistance needed, the first group being the petroleum and jet oil industry that are seriously affected, with growth expected to decline by 10-15 percent from 2020.  The second group is are steel, automotive, canned food and fashion that is estimated to grow by 0.5 – 1 percent.  The last group comprises the best performers, namely the home appliances, electronic and medical products that are anticipated to grow by 5-10 percent.  Last year, SME D Bank had allocated 40 billion Baht in soft loan to SMEs.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 15 January 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 15 Dec, total confirmed cases from clusters
188	11,450	60	8,288 (at 72.38%)	7,213
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field hospital/  quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding among migrant workers
81+73 (active case finding among migrant workers) + 13 (entering from Myanmar)	13 (in SQ)	3,093	553 [526 reported by BMA yesterday + 27 by CCSA today]	69 (+0)	3,260

• The Deputy PM and Public Health Minister Anutin assured the people on the reports that some of the vaccine to be brought into Thailand does not have satisfactory effectiveness by saying that he will be the first person to be vaccinated.—PPTV
• In a bid to resolve the issues which caused the new wave of COVID surge in the Kingdom, the PM has ordered the establishment of two probe committees on gambling dens and illicit entries of people from neighbouring countries. There is, however, no timeframe for the committee to report its finding.—Krungthep Turakij

Politics

• The Opposition is set to file the censure motion within today. The secretary-general of the main Opposition Pheu Thai Party said he got a request from the secretary to the House Speaker to file the motion within the third week of January, a week ahead from the early plan. The sec-gen of the party did not reveal who will be grilled in the motion.—Thai Rath
• More development regarding Article 112:
  • After a police apprehended Sirichai “New” Natueng, a university student by the police inside the university on lese majeste charge, he got released on bail and was apprehended again.—Prachachat
  • The lawyer of the student said to Reuters that the charge was placed for defacing the King’s portrait.—Reuters
  • Within less than 24 hours after the police apprehended  Sirichai, the police call Chayaphol ‘Dave’ Danothai to acknowledge the lese majeste charge. The police charge Dave on the same case New is being alleged. 
  • The issue is that Dave is in Hat Yai and was not in the area where the police said he was guilty of. The 2nd year university student is scheduled to report himself to the police today.—The Standard
  • After reporting to the police, it turned out that Dave did not have any summon or arrest warrant. The police called Dave in as witness.—Daily News
  • The Royal Thai Police spokesperson said that 
  • Second largest opposition Kao Klai party is set to file a draft to amend Article 112 in the next Parliamentary session. The secretary-general of the party said that the fresh introduction of the article has charged more than 40 people, including two minors. This would, according to the Party, jeopardise the monarch-people relations in a democratic society.—Thai Rath
• South Korean-based May 18 Memorial Foundation for human rights has officially announced Anon Nampa, human rights lawyer and one of the protest main figures, as the winner of its annual prize given to the human rights-related activists around the world. Anon received the 2021 Gwangju Prize for Human Rights (GPHR) for his continual fight for injustice and human rights. —Matichon
• The royalist ‘Thai Bhakdhi’ Group is set to set up its political party, apparently named ‘Thai Bhakdhi Party’. Media reports that the secretary-general of the royalist political movement has registered the name with the Election Comission’s party registrar. The movement needs to have 500 members and one million THB initial fund to establish a party.—Krungthep Turakij
• After a rumour that former Pheu Thai chief strategist Sudarat Keyuraphan will join hands with the ruling generals to set up a new political party, this morning the former Public Health Minister posted on her social media underlining her stance in not giving in to dictatorship. She said since the Bloody May incident in 1992, she has always been fighting against dictatorship and will not make herself a stepping stone for dictator to extend their tenures.—Sudarat Keyuraphan
  • The rumour has it that in the next election, there will be no main ruling Palang Pracharat Party as it is the nature of such ad hoc party creating merely to extend the tenure of coup makers. The spotlight is now on Deputy PM Gen Prawit and Sudarat who is setting up a new political party after she left Pheu Thai. It is reported that General A. who is very close to Get Prawit has a close connection to Group Captain N. who is a close aide to Sudarat.—Natethip 
  • The editor of a political magazine revealed that General N. is General Noppadol Inthapanya and Group Captain A. is Anudith Nakornthap. Gen Noppadol’s wife is sister to Anudith’s wife.—Thanapol Eawsakul

Analysis/opinion

• An online magazine popular among people in their 20s-mid 30s has listed the international community engagements with the recent student-led protests. The ‘Ten for Ten’ press conference on 14 November was put into the political struggle of the protestors. The article said the press conference with Ambassadors of Australia, Britain, Germany, Japan and the US on recommending Thailand to boost its trade and investment performance, though sound apolitical, is unprecedented from traditional diplomatic protocol. The article went on to portray how US pressured Thailand even more via American Senate support for democratic struggle in Thailand.—Way Magazine
• The upcoming municipal election in Nonthaburi will be a battle field between the Progressive Movement and freshly resigned former Pheu Thai Chief Strategist Sudarat. In the latest PAO executives election , though Progressive movement lost the election, it was a close gap. After the Progressive Movement announced that it will have the names for the city mayor, the current mayor, who has long-standing ties with Sudarat, swiftly announced an unprecedented initiative in using local budget to supply vaccine for the locals. The current mayor of Nonthaburi city said he got the idea from Sudarat, the former Public Health Minister herself.—Krungthep Turakij
• Media interviewed the current Bangkok Governor Pol Gen Asawin who was appointed by the junta under the supreme laws Article 44 whether he eyes to run for the gubernatorial seat. He replied by saying that does the media want him to run? The governor election has not been announced yet but he is keeping himself fit for the run. When asked whether he will send his son who is currently serving as the BMA spokesperson to run, he said his son is not at the minimum age required for the position. The current governor revealed that the former Police Chief Pol Gen Chaktip has made a call to him asking whether Pol Gen Asawin will run, the current governor said he has not made up his mind.—Thai Rath Inside Thailand, Bangkok Post
• For the former Nation TV big fans, the familiar faces are returning on air from 1 February as the hardline right wing anchors who left the TV channel late last year due to restructuring have finally settled on their new platform. The Top TV will be broadcasting on satellite channel 77 and on online platforms (Facebook and You Tube). The group of anchors said they discussed with Digital TV Channel 18 (owned by Daily News newspapers) and PPTV but could not cut the deal.—Thai Post Isranews Agency, New Na

Australia

• A veteran media Sondhi Limthongkul tried to make connection between the prisoner transfer of Australian national from Iran back to Australia with the Akra Mining Arbitrary. Sodhi said in the international deal that Iran sent an Australian national back to Australia and Thailand sent two Iranians back to Iran, what did Australia give to Thailand in order to make the deal happen? After seeing a report quoting a source in the Government House that the case will likely be resolved by Australian Akra mining withdrew the arbitrary case against the Thai government, Sondhi said the mystery is solved. The settlement of the arbitrary is the final puzzle in the deal. He also added that the mastermind of the deal is Syedsulaiman Husaini who is the leader of Sunni in ASEAN and Thailand who arranged the deal with two Thais and coordinate with Australian authority.–Sondhi Talk (from 5.09 min-14.00 min)

Economic:

Akara Mine

• Local authorities are trying to convince civic groups in Chantaburi province to allow Richphoom Mining company to explore gold and silver in the province.  Richphoom Mining, a subsidiary of Akara Resources and Kingsgate Consolidate Ltd, last year applied for a special licence to explore gold and silver in Chantaburi, only to meet strong opposition from civic groups.  Local authorities reasoned that Richphoom should be granted the exploration license because it does not cause any damages to the environment.  An insider source observed that the government’s support to issue the exploration license to Richphoom coincides with Kingsgate’s negotiation with Thai government regarding Akara Mine as part of the TAFTA arbitration process.  It remains unclear if Kingsgate will drop the charges against Thailand this month, but negotiations between both sides to reach an agreement seem to be progressing well, according to the same insider source.  Sources:  Prachachat Turakij Matichon  Weekly

Tourism

• The Thai government approved 6 golf resorts, including those located in Kanchanaburi and Nakhon Nayok provinces, where foreign arrivals can enjoy the game and roam within the resort premises as they undergo the 2-week mandatory quarantine.  The golf quarantine is the latest effort by Thai authorities to lure foreign travellers amid a new wave of Covid-19 infections after earlier offers of special long-stay visas evoked a lukewarm response.  Tourists planning trips to Thailand will need visas, medical and travel insurance and a certificate of entry.  The pandemic has devastated Thailand’s tourism industry, which netted more than 60 billion USD in revenue from about 40 million visitors in 2019 and accounted for about a fifth of the nation’s GDP.  Source:  Bloomberg

• Tourism and Sport Ministry said each foreign visitor will be charged a tourism fee of 10 USD (300 Baht) per visit.  This is in line with the revised National Tourism Policy Act, which authorises the ministry to impose tourism fee for use in developing local destinations and providing insurance coverage for foreign tourists.  Implementation will begin after the announcement is published in The Royal Gazette.  Tourism Ministry forecasts Thailand had welcomed 6.7 million international tourists in 2020 and projected 10 million foreign arrivals for this year.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• With the resurgence of COVID-19 slowing down hotel bookings, hoteliers are delaying their decisions to join or renew the Alternative State Quarantine (ASQ)/Alternative Local Quarantine (ALQ) program.  Public Health Ministry has yet to provide concrete guidelines for hotels to withdraw from the program, or to reactivate their ASQ or ALQ status.  The ASQ-ALQ Club of Thailand reported that overall occupancy rate for ASQ hotels this month had dropped by 30 percent to 6,000 -7,000 rooms per day from its peak of 9,500 rooms in December.  The tepid response is expected to continue until February, with a 30-40 percent decline in forward bookings.  Source:  Bangkok Post

US-China Trade War

• The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) expects the US’s decision to impose anti-dumping duties (AD) on car tyres exported from Thailand to severely impact the Thai automotive and agricultural sectors.  FTI said the AD, which is set at 13.25– 22.21 percent, stems from the US-China Trade War.  Following the trade war, many Chinese tyre companies have moved here to use Thailand as their new production base.  Of the 7-8 tyre factories operating in the EEC, 5 have relocated from China. The AD will also affect the demand for rubber latex; a raw material used in the tyre production.  Kasikorn Research Centre notes that the strongest impact felt in export of small pickups as the AD will make Thai tyres less competitive than those from Indonesia, Vietnam and Canada.  The US is also the largest exporting market for Thai tyre.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Board of Investment (BOI) expects Thailand’s automobile industry to continue growing after 2 automakers from China, GM and Great Wall, have decided to invest in Thailand with the goal of making the country their production bases.  BOI anticipates that a few more Chinese auto-component manufacturers will also begin investing in Thailand.  This corresponds well with BOI’s scheme to lure FDI in a bid to make Thailand the production hub of EV and plug-in hybrid cars.  Most recently, Great Wall Motor had embarked on a campaign to promote EVs by conducting a survey with the local National Institute of Development Institution (NIDA) on Thai motorists’ perceptions of the technology.  Sources:  TNN Thailand Bangkok Post

Others

• University of Thai Chamber of Commerce’s (UTCC) studies reveals that Thai exports could grow by 3.6 percent with a total value of 237 billion USD if COVID-19 vaccine has enough supply to cover 40 percent of the world population this year; oil price is high and RCEP is enforced.  If the vaccine is not available this year, Thai exports could shrink by 0.81 percent to value at 227 billion USD.  Another major risk is the shortage of shipping containers, which could cause Thai export to shrink by 2.2 percent as logistics cause will soar by 3-5 times.  UTCC called for the government establish a fund to ease shipping cost burden for exporters and negotiate to secure more containers to Thailand.  UTCC is also monitoring the policies of incoming US President Joe Biden on Thai trade, as well as the implementation of EU-Vietnam FTA and CPTPP.  Sources:  Krungthep Turakij Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 14 January 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 18 Dec, total confirmed cases from clusters
271	11,262	60	7,660 (at 68.02%)	6,602
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field hospital/  quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding among migrant workers
78+181 (active case finding among migrant workers) + 1 (entering from Malaysia)	11 (in SQ)	3,533	526 [512 reported by BMA yesterday (*BMA changed the number) + 14 by CCSA today]	69 (+2 a British national from London arrived Thailand on 5 December; and a Thai national with Diabetes)	3,187

Politics

• Yesterday, there have been some developments on Article 112 lese majeste:
  • Late last night, the police raid into Thammasat University and apprehend ‘New Sirichai’ a 1st year student for violating Article 112. After being told that the student will be transferred to the border patrol police camp, the police told the other protest main figures that he is being held at Long Luang Police Station.—ThaiPBS
  • The Samut Prakarn trial court dismissed the lese majeste and sedition allegations against a person who posted comment in relation to King Rama IX’s dog pet and the alleged corruption plan of the Rajabhakdhi Park. Mr Tanakorn posted a comment saying “feeling very grateful seeing the comments” in a post related to the former King’s pet. The court saw this phrase does not indicate merely a sarcastic intent against the pet, so the case is dismissed.—Prachatai
  • Up until yesterday, iLaw listed the number of people who got charges in the fresh reintroduction of Article 112 is as high as 45 people, including two minors. The full list cane be viewed at iLaw’s.
• Media interviewed the current Bangkok Governor Pol Gen Asawin who was appointed by the junta under the supreme laws Article 44 whether he eyes to run for the gubernatorial seat. He replied by saying that does the media want him to run? The governor election has not been announced yet but he is keeping himself fit for the run. When asked whether he will send his son who is currently serving as the BMA spokesperson to run, he said his son is not at the minimum age required for the position. The current governor revealed that the former Police Chief Pol Gen Chaktip has made a call to him asking whether Pol Gen Asawin will run, the current governor said he has not made up his mind.—Thai Rath Inside Thailand, Bangkok Post
• For the former Nation TV big fans, the familiar faces are returning on air from 1 February as the hardline right wing anchors who left the TV channel late last year due to restructuring have finally settled on their new platform. The Top TV will be broadcasting on satellite channel 77 and on online platforms (Facebook and You Tube). The group of anchors said they discussed with Digital TV Channel 18 (owned by Daily News newspapers) and PPTV but could not cut the deal.—Thai Post Isranews Agency, New Na

Economic:

• The government plans to continue retaining its price control on 55 products and services.  Among them are items used to combat COVID-19, such as sanitary face masks, polypropylene (spundbond) used in the production of face masks, alcohol for hand sanitizer and recyclable paper.  Originally set to expire on 3 February, the price-control of these 4 items will be renewed for another year, subjected to the cabinet’s approval next week.  Source:  Thai Rath  Bangkok Post

• Similarly to last year’s 5,000 Baht cash-handout financial assistance scheme, the soon-to-be-implemented 3,500 Baht handout under the government project ‘Rao Chana’ will be given to applicants based on the amount of income reported in their savings account.  For example, high-earning freelancers will be disqualified, whereas informal workers with low income will be eligible.  Other ineligible groups are the civil servants and formal workers entitled by compensation from Social Security Fund.  The criteria will be finalised at the cabinet’s meeting next Tuesday.  TDRI reprimanded the government’s blanket approach; instead urging it to provide cash to those who need it most, at a higher amount and for a longer period of time.

• Finance Ministry reported that Phase 2 of the ‘Khon La Krueng’ government co-payment subsidy program is used by 12.1 million people, with spending totalling 53.4 billion Baht, of which 27.3 billion Baht is spending by the consumers and 26.1 billion is the government’s subsidy.  The cabinet will take this into account when considering whether or not to extend the third phase of the scheme.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij

• The state-own Krungthai Bank has revised down its forecast for Thailand’s 2021 GDP; from a growth of 3.5 to 2.5 percent on the condition that the pandemic outbreak is contained in 2 months.  Under this scenario, domestic tourism is estimated to decline to 109.6 million trips, thereby incurring a loss of 110 billion Baht in tourism revenue and causing consumer spending to crease by 167 billion Baht.  If the pandemic takes 3 months (Jan- March) to control, GDP will expand by 2 percent, with  domestic tourism totalling 100 million trips, leading to a loss of 150 billion Baht in tourism revenue and a drop of 239 billion Baht in consumer spending.  If the government’s latest aid package is not implemented, GDP could plunge to 1.5-percent growth.

• TMB Bank estimated that nationwide, the resurgence of COVID-19 will cause revenue from trade and tourism to decline by 140 billion Baht, since both sectors constitute 22 percent of GDP and employ 6.9 million people.  TMB Bank suggests the government aids the affected people in accordance with the magnitude of impacts in their specific areas.  For example, the Bangkok economy is 33 percent dependent on trade and tourism, thereby it is expected to suffer the highest loss in revenue of 81.4 billion Baht.  Next is Chonburi, with revenue expected to fall by 15.5 billion Baht and Phuket by 2.8 billion Baht.  Sources:  Krungthep Turakij Bangkok Post

• The Association of Domestic Travel (ADT) said the government’s domestic tourism goal of 200 million trips this year is achievable, if the outbreak is contained in 2 months and the government provides more support through stimulus packages.  ADT proposed a new idea for a co-payment domestic tour programme, with the government subsidising 50 percent of tour packages, capped at 3,000 Baht for 2 million packages.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• The government will rev up promotion of the Bio, Circular and Green (BCG) economy to drive economic growth from 2021-2026.  PM Prayut had approved a 5-year strategic plan to promote BCG and identified four target sectors, namely farm and food; healthcare and medical services; energy and biochemicals; and tourism and creative economy.  The government will work with the Board of Investment to adjust privileges to attract foreign investment.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 13 January 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 15 Dec, total confirmed cases from clusters
157	10,991	60	6,943 (at 63.17%)	6,754
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ in field hospital/  quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases from active case finding among migrant workers
90+42 (active case finding among migrant workers) + 21 (entering from Myanmar)	4 (in SQ)	3,981	551 [527 reported by BMA yesterday + 24 by CCSA today]	67	3,006

• Media reports that Thai Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has received the application from two vaccine producers: AstraZeneca and Sinovac Biotech to register their COVID-19 vaccines for use in Thailand. FDA secretary-general said The vaccine will need to undergo various safety assessments to be registered in Thailand, and once approved, they can be bought by private hospitals.—Reuters
  • In the weekly cabinet meeting yesterday, the cabinet acknowledged the vaccine procurement report to be divided into three phases from three sources. The cabinet aims to vaccinate up to 33 millions population within 2021. The more details of the vaccine procurement is as followed:
    • Source 1: 2 million doses, covering 10 percent of the population from Chinese Sinovac Biotech to be supplied by the first quarter of 2021. The overall budget is at 1.2 billion THB.
    • Source 2: 26 million doses, covering 20 percent of the population from AstraZeneca under bilateral agreement (advanced market commitment) to be supplied by June 2021. The cabinet also had the resolution to procure the addition of 35 million more doses, totalling 61 million doses from the British company.
    • Source 3: from COVAX Facility, to supply 20 percent of the population. It is now under negotiation process.—Prachachat
  • A senior source in private hospital business told a media that regardless of the high demand of vaccine, the private hospitals cannot procure the vaccine at this time as it needs to get an approval from Thai FDA before they can contact to the company or agents.—Prachachat
  • CBD Klong Toey market has been closed from today for three days as a vendor is tested COVID positive. The vendor is asymptomatic before getting into quarantine after a saliva test.—National News Bureau of Thailand
  • FCCT is going to hold an online panel discussion on COVID-19 and Thailand vaccine strategy from 7pm tonight. The discussion will be livestream on their FB Page.—FCCT

Politics

• In the weekly cabinet meeting, the cabinet has approved the nationwide elections for the mayors and councillors of municipalities of all levels. The Election Commission is eyeing to hold the election on 21 March.—Thai Rath
• In the cabinet meeting, it is reported that the Election Commission has indicated the budget for the local election in Pattaya City and Bangkok Metropolitan. The National Security Council said the movement of the student-led protest has changing its form from a mass gathering to that of symbolic gestures spraying at different locations. The target of this latest movement is beyond the government. The PM is also reported to say at the end of the meeting that “It is heaven’s wishes to bring us all together. It is lucky that we are in power from election. Should it is the junta government, we will face more resistance.”—Krungthep Turakij
• The Digital Economy Minister said that the Computer Crime Suppression Division has given a deadline for the student-led protest main figures Parit ‘Penguin’ Chiwarak and Panusaya ‘Rung’ Sithijirawattanakul to report themselves to the police division on the charges from the Computer Crime Act by 14 January. The Minister who is looking after ‘anti-fake news centre’ said his ministry has submitted court order to global platform providers (Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and many more) to geo-block more than 9,000 contents. The providers have managed to shut down 5,308 contents.—Thai Rath

Economic:

• Cabinet’s Decisions, 12 January, 2021

The cabinet had given a green light to a new set of stimulus/relief measures, to be funded by the 470 billion Baht budget remaining from the 1 trillion Baht loan.  There is also 130 billion Baht worth of the government’s contingency fund that is available for re-allocation to combat COVID-19.  DPM Supattanapong insists additional borrowing is not necessary – as long as the public provides its full cooperation and the pandemic is brought under complete control by the end of March.  If the outbreaks continues beyond this period, the government may need to borrow more. 

Stimulus/Relief Measures

• Domestic stimulus subsidy package ‘Rao Tiew Duay Kun’ – hotel bookings made under this package can be postponed until April and its Phase 2 implementation is being considered.
• Phase 3 of co-payment subsidy program ‘Kon La Krueng’ is expected to open for registration to an estimated 1 million people on 20 January and will be implemented from 25 January onward.  Details will be finalised by the cabinet next Tuesday
• Cash-handout worth 3,500 Baht per person per month will be administered to the afflicted, specifically farmers and those not covered by Social Security System for 2 months.  The program is called “Thai Chana” and eligible recipients must register on its website, with cash to be given out at the end of January or start of February.  Details will be finalized by the cabinet next Tuesday.
• Ministry of Finance has extended various debt holiday, debt restructuring and loan programs for tourism operators, exporters/importers and freelancers through 7 state-owned banks until June 2021.  Bank of Thailand is extending its debt moratorium program until June 2021,
• Tax Reduction – 90 percent reduction in land and building taxes, with transfer fee reduced to 0.01 percent.  Details will be finalized by the cabinet next week
• Reduction of utility expenses for 2 months, ie: electricity bill and 10 percent discount for water bill in February and March.
• Ministry of Digital Economy and Society will ask internet service providers to boost internet speed to support work-from-home programs and provide free of charge downloads for Mor Chana app for 3 months
• Ministry of Labour will implement Employment scheme to recruit new graduates to work for the government
• Reduction in social security fund (SSF) contribution and increase in SSF unemployment compensation that cover joblessness arising from force majeur, temporarily business suspension and resignation.
• Meaures will be in place to support business operators to establish ‘factory quarantine sites’ for their workers, especially in the 5 red-zone eastern provinces.  Sources:  Bangkok PostThansettakij; Cabinet press conference, 12 January 2021
• The Bank of Thailand has extended financial relief measures to individual borrowers and SMEs with performing loans until Jun 2021.  These include debt relief measures, deferment of debt repayment and, debt holiday measures.  Finance Ministry noted that there is 370 billion Baht remaining budget from the BOT’s previous soft loan program.   Source:  Bangkok Post

Others

• Commerce Minister Jurin said COVID-19 has caused a significant decline in border trade, with trade between Thailand and Myanmar falling by an average 30-40 percent; with Laos estimated at 10 percent and with Cambodia by 20 percent.  The shortage of shipping cargo containers is also causing delays in the export of Thai goods.
• Commerce Ministry is a also fixing the retail price of sanitary face mask at 2.5 Baht and is also monitoring retailers nationwide to ensure compliance.   There is no price control on fabric mask, while alternative facial masks with added functionality such as protection against dust, can be sold at a retail price with 60 percent mark-up.  Source:  Daily News
• Commerce Ministry revealed that China’s Dual Circulation Strategy aimed at reducing reliance on imports could affect some sectors of Thai exports.  China is likely to localise its supply chains for products in the technology, energy and food sectors.  Commerce Ministry identified areas that Thailand could improve to ensure Thailand’s products remain valuable to China, such as improving R&D for the manufacturing of airplane jets.  Source:  Kao Hoon

Headlines summary as of 12 January 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 18 Dec, total confirmed cases from clusters
287	10,834	59	6,732 (at 62.14%)	6,208
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised/ quarantined	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases for active case finding among migrant workers
153+125 (active case finding among migrant workers)	9 (in SQ)	4,035	487 (+31 cases reported today)	67	2,964

• After the reports on the newly introduced deadly illicit drugs, the CCSA concerns that drug users will potentially be the new clusters.
• The Tourism and Sports Minister said the ministry is discussing with the Public Health Ministry and the CCSA and had proposed a plan to allow foreigners to quarantine in some of the country’s many golf resorts to boost the ailing tourism sector during the pandemic. Foreign tourists would be able to spend the two-week quarantine period at a specified resort and move around in the hotel area and also play golf rather than just isolating in their rooms. The Minister said the special visa issuing for long stay visitors has attracted more than 1,000 visitors.–Reuters

• Thailand’s palace has released photographs of HM King Maha Vajiralongkorn visiting prisons with the royal consort, Sineenat Wongvajirapakdi, as the royal family steps up public appearances. The royal couples are photographed sweeping floors and speaking to officials during the last two months of 2020, and the segment also featured interviews with inmates speaking about the benefits of the projects.–Reuters
  • Yesterday, the Royal Gazette published the King’s order to appoint the Royal Consort as the royal deputy advisor to the prison development project. The Royal Consort resumed this position after she was first appointed in late August 2019 and stripped of the position in November. HM the Queen Suthida who was royal advisor back in November, however, is no longer part of the project, according to the latest Gazette.—BBC Thai

Politics

• The House Speaker has signed off the Parliament Order on appointing 11 members for the National Reconciliation Committee. The committee is scheduled to hold the first meeting on 18 January. In the first meeting, media will be allowed to attend. The agenda of the meeting also includes the nomination of the executives of the committee. The name list is as followed:
  • General Chaicharn Changmongkol, Deputy Defence Minister
  • Therdpong Chaiyanant, Coalition Democrat MP
  • Sora-at Klinprathum, Coalition Bhumjaithai MP
  • Nirote Sunthornlekha, main ruling  Phalang Pracharat Party MP
  • Chaweerat Kasetsunthorn, Senator
  • Wallop Tangkhananurak, Senator
  • Nirut Thuengnak, Rector of Rajabhat Maha Sarakham University
  • Wanchai Watthanasap, former Rector of Khon Kaen University
  • Surichai Wankaew, Director of Chulalongkorn University’s Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies
  • Somsak Rungroong, Rector of Southeast Bangkok College
  •  Viroj Limkaisaeng, Rector of Rajamangala University of Technology Isan—Krungthep Turakij
• Deputy Public Health Minister posted on his FB that the cabinet has approved the municipality election and has ordered the Election Commission to decide the date. The election date will most likely be on 21 March.—Than Settakij

Australia

• Media reports quoting a source in the Government House saying that the Industry Ministry has updated the cabinet on the progress of the arbitrary between the Australian Kingsgate and the Thai Government. It is reported that the negotiation went well and the case will be settled by the middle of this year. The tendency is that Kingsgate will withdraw the case and re-invest in Thailand under the new bills and national strategy and potentially a co-investment with Thai investors.—Khao Sod Siam Rath

Economic:

• NESDC Sec-Gen Danucha said his agency’s priority in the first 6 months of 2021 is to contain the pandemic outbreak, boost grassroot economy and curtail risks stemming from unemployment, household debt, strong Baht and the policies of the new US President, Joe Biden.  Its next focus will be on driving forward the economy as well as restructuring it.  To achieve the latter, the Board of Investment (BOI) will need to draw both technology transfer and investments into key industries such as electric vehicles, battery, electrical grids and systems and electronics.  If the pandemic is contained by early February, the government will not have to change its economic management plans.  Source:  The Nation
• The Food Franchise Institute expects the government to be able to contain the pandemic outbreak in 3 months, with activities returning to normalcy in April.  This is expected to incur a loss of 15 billion Baht for restaurants and street food vendors, with new start-ups facing the highest prospect of closure due to cash flow issues.  Source: Thansettakij
• Household debt for 2020 has reached a 12-year high, expanding by 42.3 percent from 2019 to total 483,951 Baht per household and amounting to 88 percent of GDP, according to Thai Chamber of Commerce University (UTCC).   Based on a survey of 1,000 people, most (70 percent) attribute the rising debt to the economic slowdown induced by COVID-19.   On the upside, over 75 percent of household debts are loans from legitimate financial institutions.  UTCC also disclosed that consumer confidence index had dropped to a 6-month low to 31.8 percent due to the restrictions of the soft lockdown.  Sources:  Krungthep Turakij  Bangkok Post
• The export of Durians from Thailand’s red-zone eastern provinces to China is facing delays from the stringent COVID-19 screening processes imposed at Chinese checkpoints.  Additionally, China has yet to renew its contracts to purchase Thai Durians due to fears of pandemic contamination.  Some of the exported Durians remain held at the Chinese checkpoints – if they are not released by the end of January, it could prove problematic since an additional supply of 1 ton of Durians will be harvested in mid-January.  The screening processes at Chinese checkpoint are incurring extra costs for Thai exporters, who have asked farmers to reduce the price of Durians.  Domestic demands for fruits from the eastern provinces are also in a slump, thereby causing prices of fruits to drop further.  Source:  Thai PBS
• Federation of Thai Capital Market Organization (FETCO) said the FETCO Investor Confidence Index in Q1 of 2021 remains bullish, supported by foreign fund inflow into emerging market and the prospects of domestic economic growth as well as a-40 percent increase in listed companies’ earnings this year.  Foreign investors were net buyers of Thai equities by 40 billion Baht from November- December of 2020, while for the full year they were net sellers of 260 billion Baht.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Tourism Ministry reiterates that the government will not rush into allowing inoculated tourists to enter Thailand without undergoing quarantine, despite the request by Thai Travel Agents (ATTA).  ATTA is calling for urgent relief measures for tourism operators, citing that 30 percent of the 10,000 registered inbound tourism companies have closed permanently; 50 percent have temporarily suspended their operations given the lack of international tourists; and 20 percent remain open but are stuttering because the domestic demand is vanquished by the pandemic outbreak.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Despite the pandemic and the ensuing economic slowdown, the resale condominium market remains robust.  The sellers want to sell their properties to preserve cash, while the buyers are those with solid financial footing who see the opportunity to purchase properties at attractive prices.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The government announced it is committed to completing its 20-year (2010-2029) mass rapid transit master plan for Bangkok and the vicinity that will cover 559 kg and 336 stations.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 11 January 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

Newly confirmed case(s)	Total Cases	Provinces with confirmed cases	Discharged from hospital	From 15 Dec, total confirmed cases from clusters
249	10,547	58	6,566 (at 63.25%)	6,090
Local transmission	From abroad	Being hospitalised	Confirmed cases in Bangkok	Death toll	Accumulated cases for active case finding among migrant workers
176+48 (active case finding among migrant workers) +14 (illicit entry)	11 (in SQ)	3,914	447 (+36 cases reported today)	67	2,839

• The CCSA spokesperson said in the press briefing that as of yesterday, there have been 6.34 million downloads of the ‘Mor Chana’ application, the newly introduced application the CCSA is recommending to curb COVID-19. The application is a step up from the ‘Thai Chana’ which also asks for GPS and Bluetooth of users.
• Deputy PM and Public Health Minister raised up an idea to let people who got COVID infection from illicit behaviours, including illicit entry and gambling to be responsible for their own treatment expenses. The Public Health Minister affirmed that it is by rights that everyone in Thailand is subject to medical treatment without any objection, but according to the Communicable Disease Act Article 41-43 the authority can ask certain groups to be responsible for the expenses.—Thai Post
• Media are reporting on the deadly illicit drug which is believed to cause 7 casualties in Bangkok within a day. Apparently it is the new formula of Ketamine, widely called ‘Milk Powder Ketamine’ and the side-effect is deadly.–ThaiPBS

Politics

• Super Poll released its latest poll on the popularity of the PM showing that under the pandemic 87 percent of the people have trust in the PM. The poll said that the support of the Coalition has been rising since April 2020 which was at 35.7 percent late last year and now at 53.6 percent in January 2021. –Super Poll

Analysis/opinion:

• Second largest opposition Kao Klai Party (the party successor of the now defunct Future Forward Party) are facing a dilemma from not being as progressive as the student-led protestors and too progressive for the Opposition. The article regarded the role of the party being downgraded as ‘follower’ from the leading role. The party is being left behind in their progressive agenda on including the rejig proposal of Article 1 and 2 (Form of State and On Monarchy) to the Opposition charter rejig proposal.—Matichon Weekly

Economic:

Provident Fund & Unemployment

• Finance Ministry will allow employees and employers to suspend or postpone their provident fund contributions from January to June 2021, without affecting their provident fund status.  The statement was published in The Royal Gazette on 10 January 2021.  Sources:  The Nation Krungthep Turakij
• TDRI expects unemployment caused by the current COVID-19 outbreak to be worse than last year, given that employment number had not fully recovered.  While auto, food and manufacturing sectors are not much affected, the service sector remains the hardest hit.  Unemployment peaked at 8 million during last year’s lockdown (2 percent) and came down to 7.3-7.4 million.  When the lockdown was lifted last year, around 5 million jobless people were able to find employment.  But of this figure, 2-3 million are earning less compared to pre-COVID19 period because their working and OT hours are reduced.  The government’s decision to implement a soft lockdown as opposed to a nationwide hard lockdown leads to ambiguity in compensation guidelines for those who are suspended from work or whose working hours are be reduced.  TDRI expects the government will need 100 billion Baht to assist the migrant labourers who are marginalised and would need the most assistance.  Source:  Thansettakij

Tourism & Aviation

• Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) expects the current outbreak to affect tourism for 2 months, after which another month is needed before TAT could provide a new forecast for year 2021 tourism figures.  Foreign arrivals are expected to return in Q3 2021, when the vaccines are rolled out.  TAT’s original forecast for 2021 was 120 domestic trips with revenue of 700 billion Baht, and 10 million foreign arrivals with revenue of 500 billion Baht.  Domestic tourism had declined by 90 percent because cross-province travel is restricted, according Federation of Tourism Thailand.  It called for the government to extend the benefits of the domestic stimulus package to a broader group of businesses in the tourism value chain, such as spas and tour guides. Sources:  Thansettakij newspaper, 7-9 January 2021 Bangkok Post
• The current Covid-19 outbreak caused domestic air travel to drop by 60 percent since the start of 2021, based on figures from the 20 airports supervised by the Department of Airports (DOA).   In 2020, domestic and international fights dropped 55 percent to 464,944 from 1.04 million in 2019.  Thai AirAsia (TAA) said this is the worst crisis for aviation in Thailand as airlines face more pressure than during the lockdown last year.  Most airlines in Thailand are not in a good shape financially, since they received no financial support from the government despite requesting for the soft loans since last year.  Sources:  Bangkok Post Bangkok Post
• Tourism operators ask the government to start researching on a plan to welcome inoculated international tourists, with the aim being to revoke the 14-day quarantine requirement.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Others

• Economist Somjai Phagaphasvivat expects the Thai economy to contract in Q1 of 2021 and lauds the government’s effort at implementing the stimulus schemes.  Federation of Thai Industry suggests the government foregoes the cash-handout and instead raises the Khon La Krueng co-payment subsidy to 5,000 Baht until March.  The Wholesale and Retail Association chided the government’s inefficiencies in handling the latest outbreak and said existing state aid measures only benefitted certain groups of people and businesses.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCCI) offers to cooperate with the government in tackling the virus outbreak, while requesting a tax deduction for expenses incurred from health screening, treatment and vaccinations for infected employees.  TCC proposes that a joint working group be established with the public and private sectors to manage problems in the longer term.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Ministry of Finance is mulling 4 options to assist those affected by COVID-19.  If the cash-handout is implemented, it would be limited since the government did not impose a nationwide lockdown.  Source:  Bangkok Post