Headlines summary as of 8 January 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

• COVID-related application communication turned to be a political drama as:
  • In the CCSA press briefing yesterday, the spokesperson said that the CCSA is eyeing to fine those who got COVID-19 infection and did not download the newly introduced ‘Mor Chana’ application. The application is a step-up from ‘Thai Chana’ platform with additional features of tracking GPS and Bluetooth to alert users from getting close to the confirmed cases. The new application is compulsory for those in the maximum controlled with highly strict control area (Samut Sakhon, Chonburi, Rayong, Chantaburi and Trat).
  • Three hours later, the Deputy PM and Public Health Minister, who is now under self-quarantine for getting in close contact with the confirmed cases, posted on his FB that he has consulted on this compulsory download of this application. The PM and director of CCSA agreed that this measure might cause more burdens than not. The Public Health Minister said that the penalty aims against those who intended to conceal their timelines.—Matichon
  • Today, the CCSA spokesperson came out to apologise for the miscommunication. He said he is being misquoted, the intended message is that the infected who intended to conceal their timeline and did not intend to download the application will be liable for penalty.
  • The CCSA spokesperson came out to counter the personal criticisms particularly on social media against him and his positions.
  • So far, there have been 3.69 million downloads of the application, a big step from 6 January which saw only 1.65 million downloads.
  • A media hit the street to interview people on the penalty from not downloading the application. Some people said with their lack of digital literacy, they have nothing to do but let the authority to fine them. Some said their phones cannot connect to the internet nor have money enough to get any internet package.—PPTV

• There have been more reports of places with COVID confirmed cases in Bangkok:
  • Posh Emquatier Department Store revealed that they have decided to close three shops for three days (7-9 January) as a people with COVID is verified to visit Maison Kitsune, COS, Ros’Niyom, Eric Kayser and Guss Damn Good.—Khao Sod
  • King Power Duty Free near Victory Monument is closed for today as a staff who works at Jurlique store is tested COVID positive. And the skin care store will be closed for three days.—Khao Sod  
  • One of the most well-known variety/ morning news shows in Thailand is seen to do the live report off studio as a graphic designer of the programme is tested COVID-positive. The studio is on the Rama IV Road in Khlong Toei District—ThaiPBS 

Politics

• In defiant of the pandemic, a small group of the student-led protest groups (DemHope and Nonthaburi Youth Generation Network) swam with the iconic yellow rubber ducks in a canal next to the Government House. The protestors held up banners criticising the government, including “where are the gambling dens?” And “COVID, not a big deal”.—Thai Post
• Main Opposition Pheu Thai Party’s secretary-general held a press conference as the Constitutional Court turned down the request by the Opposition to strip a vocal main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) from his MP status. The Court said that the request did not secure one-tenth of the Parliament members. The political drama erupted as MP Sira Jenjaka said he will file legal cases against those who had the signature on the proposal, Pheu Thai MPs withdrew to the point that the proposal did not secure the required numbers. The secretary-general of Pheu Thai said that the party stands firm with the Opposition and will support the fresh proposal on this matter. The proposal was introduced by third largest Opposition Seri Ruam Thai Party—Matichon
• German Foreign Ministry said that HM the King does not need a visa to re-enter Germany since he became the head of state. The Foreign Ministry replied to an inquiry raised by the opposition Linke (Left) party. The media report quoted Sevim Dagdelen, a member of parliament for the opposition Linke party, saying if the king needed no visa then the German government could not influence how long he stayed, but as a last resort could declare him persona non grata.—Reuters

Analysis/opinion

• A strategic pundit gave an interview to a media and wrote an opinion piece on the latest riots in the US. He said the remaining 13 days is of strategic significance as President Trump remains the legitimate US leader until then, possibility of war remains salient. The political scientist said that the most successful legacy Trump left has been the weaving of what is considered fake news and its mobilisation for his political points. Professor Surachart Bumrungsuk said that regardless of the turbulence, we saw how resilient the American democratic political institutions are.—Matichon, Inside Thailand

Economic:

Ministry of Commerce and Free Trade Agreements

• DPM and Commerce Minister Jurin assigned Commerce Permanent Secretary Boonyarit to chair a panel to draft Thailand’s strategic trade plans for 2021-25 to combat the pandemic and nurse recovery.  The 5-year plan is part of the Ministry’s 14-pronged strategy, which prioritises expanding trade markets by concluding mini-FTAs and FTAs, ratifying RCEP and boosting border trade and online trade.   Provincial commerce officers are also assigned to function as sales team in proactively boosting export.  Source:  Naew NaThe NationBangkok Post

• Department of Trade Negotiations is supporting Commerce Ministry’s 5-year strategy by focusing on ratifying RCEP and pursuing FTAs.  It plans to uggrade 4 existing FTAs, including AANZFTA , and will also jumpstart negotiations for FTAs with the EU, EFTA, UK, EAEU, ASEAN-Canada.  It also seeks to conclude FTAs with Turkey, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and BIMSTEC.  Source:  Kao Hoon

• The export of Thailand’s milk and dairy product rose by 5 percent YoY to reach 516 million USD in the first 11 months of 2020, according to Commerce Ministry.  Most export went to Thailand’s FTA partner countries, most notably to ASEAN (84.5 percent), followed by China (4.4 percent).  This indicates that Thailand is on its way to becoming the centre of milk production in ASEAN.  Sources:   Ministry of Commerce press releaseThai Rath

Others

• The Thai economy could lose up to 300 billion Baht in Q1 of 2021 after its largest coronavirus outbreak caused consumer confidence index to plunge to a 5-month low (at 50.1) in December 2020, according to University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).  The Q1 2021 GDP is expected to contract by -4 percent if a soft lockdown is imposed, and by -11.3 percent with a hard lockdown.  UTCC added that the government needs at least 200 billion Baht to shore up the economy.  Overall, it forecasts that the Thai economy will grow by 2.2 percent this year; down from its earlier projection of 2.8 percent.   Sources:  ReutersBangkok PostThai Post

• Tourism operators in the north are grappling with the lack of tourists during the high season.  It urged the government to subsidise 50 percent of monthly salaries capped at 7,500 Baht per employee for at least one year to maintain employment.  In the east, up to 90 percent of hotels in Rayong had temporarily closed due to low occupancy rate.  Source: Bangkok Post

• The state-own Government Savings Bank (GSB) is helping affected customers living in the 28 red-zone provinces by allowing them to register for debt repayment assistance from January 8 onwards.  GSB will consider suspending their principal repayments for 3-6 months in a move that is anticipated to benefit 1.9 million GSB customers, whose combined loans tally 670 billion Baht.   Source:  The Nation

• Finance Ministry is to set up a working committee to oversee FY2021 budget disbursement in a bid to boost public expenditure and stimulate the sluggish economy.  In Q1 of FY 2021 (Oct – Dec, 2020), disbursement reportedly went up by 5.6 percent YoY, at 257 million Baht.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• The Thai Bankers Association plans to establish a banking crisis management ad-hoc team to facilitate uninterrupted financial services in the midst of the pandemic outbreak. TBA is also discussing with the Bank of Thailand to prepare for further virus outbreaks.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• World Bank in its Global Economic Prospects Report expects the global economy to grow by 4 percent in 2021; a 0.2 percent drop from its previous projection due to the resurgence of COVID-19 infections.  In 2022, the global economy will grow by 3.8 percent, but COVID-19 will continue to dampen investment and employment.  Particularly for emerging markets and development economies, the pandemic has exacerbated debt risks, with weak growth prospects likely to increase debt burdens and erode borrowers’ ability to service debts.  Sources:  Kao HoonWorld Bank press release

Headlines summary as of 7 January 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

After the rumour is spreading that a canned tuna factory in Samut Sakhon has more than 900 COVID cases, the director-general of the Disease Control Department came out to confirm that out of more than 3,800 factory workers, the active case finding showed that there are 914 COVID infections (103 Thai workers; 811 migrant workers).—Inside Thailand

• In the other seafood factory (the biggest in Thailand) in Samut Sakhon which have almost 28 thousands workers, the CEO gave an interview to a media that as of last night the factory has done more than 23 thousands and found 69 active cases among migrant workers (at 0.29 percent)—Inside Thailand
• Yesterday, the Royal Gazette has published the PM order which signed off the new set of restriction in entering the ‘maximum with strictest control zone’ comprising of five provinces (Samut Sakhon, Chonburi, Chantaburi, Rayong and Trat). The newest restriction includes the compulsory download of ‘Mor Chana’ application (the application traces users with GPS and Bluetooth systems) for people under the ‘maximum and strictest control zone’. For people in the zone wishing to leave the area, the checkpoint will ask for both the ID and documents issued by authority. The new order also outline penalty for violating the restrictions effective from today.—Ratchakitcha
• Phuket communicable disease control committee has made a resolution to fine people who do not wear face mask when in public places as high as 20,000 THB and may be liable to one month of imprisonment or both.—Manager 

Politics

• In defiant of the pandemic, the Thammasat and Demonstration Group is scheduled to call for a gathering in front of Thung Haha Men Police Station as many of the student-led protest main figures are to report themselves to the police on Article 112 charges from their protest in front of the German Embassy in Bangkok late last year.—Than Settakij

ASEAN/World

• All Thai media outlets reported on the riots at the US Capitol when President Trump’s supporters stormed the Congress ceremony to certify the election result which President-elect Joe Biden won over President Donald Trump.

Australia

• Thai media quoted AFP report on the Australian border force cracked down the riots on the temporary migrant shelter Christmas Island. The riot was, according to NGOs, from some immigrants who were displeased with the authority treatment, including the 22 hours of detention, unstable phone connection.—Khao Sod

Economic

• According to Siam Commercial Bank’s survey, China’s foreign direct investment (FDI) in Thailand is expected to increase significantly post-COVID-19.  Of the 170 Chinese investors surveyed, some 66 percent said they plan to invest in Thailand over the next 2 years, of which 60 percent have never invested in Thailand.  The new perception is that Thailand is a strategic hub in ASEAN rather than a base for re-export.  Interested Chinese investors are also planning to invest on a smaller scale of 500 million Baht or less, whereas previously Chinese investments were on a much larger scale in industries such as vehicle tyres and solar panels.  Most are SMEs that want to diversify their production base as a result of the US-China Trade War.  Thailand proves attractive also because it joined RCEP and has sound infrastructure development plans.  Sources:  Daily News, 7 January 2021   Thai Rath Bangkok Post

• The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee said that the new wave of COVID-19 infection in January 2021 is more severe than anticipated and will lead to subdued private consumption, services and tourism.  The 2021 GDP is anticipated to grow by 3.2 percent, down from its earlier projection of 3.6 percent as the country faces numerous downside risks, such as the unpredictability of the pandemic outbreak; the efficacy of the vaccines which could delay tourist arrivals; the decline in fiscal stimulus if there is delay in project approvals; business’s liquidity constraints that lead to closure and prolonged scarring effect; and the fall in debt servicing abilities of business and household sectors.  Sources:  Thansettakij Bangkok Post  Thai Rath

• The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has downgraded its 2020 economic outlook from a growth of 2-4 percent to 1.5 – 3.5 percent, provided that the government can stop the pandemic outbreak in 3 months and inject an additional 200 billion Baht worth of fiscal stimulus packages into the economy.  Export is expected to expand by 3-5 percent, down from the earlier projection of 4-6 percent, and inflation by 0.8 – 1 percent.  JSCCIB is concerned about the rising unemployment as currently 100,00 employees are jobless or are suspended from work due to the closure of more than 6,000 businesses in 28 red zone provinces.  Sources:  Thai Rath  Bangkok Post

• DPM and Energy Minsiter Supattanapong is expected to announce extra aid packages within 1-2 weeks.  The NESDC is considering re-allocating the 400 billion Baht designated for economic and social rehabilitation into relief packages for the people.  Finance Ministry is also working on similar measures and dismissed the rumour that it will give away cash worth 4,000 Baht to the afflicted.  Sources:  Krungthep Turakij

• Thailand’s food exports are expected to see a growth of 2-3 percent this year despite a fresh surge of infections and reports of growing cases among workers in the food industry. Thai Food Processors Association expects to fetch 1.1 trillion Baht this year from an estimated 1.08 trillion Baht last year because of rising demand for food and high confidence in food safety standards.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Large merger and acquisition deals have taken place this year, driven by the economic recession, US-China trade war and COVID19 outbreak.  Notable M&A in Thailand includes CP’s merger with Tesco Lotus, and Prince Suvarnabhumi’s takeover of Bumrungrad Hospital and Bangkok Bank’s acquisition of Indonesia’s PT Bank Permata Tbk.  Source:  Thansettakij

• Earnings per share on the Thai stock market will increase 40 percent from 2020, in line with listed firms’ net profit recovery and supported by global governments’ quantitative easing programmes and inbound fund flow, according to a survey by the Investment Analysts Association (IAA).  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 6 January 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

• In the weekly cabinet meeting, the cabinet has approved the proposal the CCSA suggested to extend the imposition of Emergency Decree to be until 28 February in an attempt to coordinate the authorities. This is the 9^th time the decree has been extended.—Post Today
• In the daily English briefing from CCSA, the Deputy MFA spokesperson dismissed the rumour that there will be a ban for Thai and foreign nationals who travel from UK, citing the emergence of the new strain of virus in the commonwealth. The spokesperson affirmed that the state quarantine system in Thailand is effective to contain the COVID.
• For people in the “maximum and strict control” areas of Samut Sakhon, Chonburi, Rayong, Chantaburi and Trat who wishes to travel across province, the CCSA spokesperson said that one must prepare necessary documents for the authority to scrutinise. And the CCSA spokesperson also asked for cooperation from the people to refrain or postpone unnecessary travel from today until 1 February in order to curb the spread of the virus.
• In an exclusive interview, health authorities in Bangkok on Tuesday confirmed they omitted references to a convenience store chain owned by one of Thailand’s largest corporations when publishing coronavirus patients’ travel history “due to legal concerns.” Earlier internet users are questioning where has 7-eleven, the biggest convenient store chains in Thailand gone in thousands of new confirmed cases’ timeline.—Khao Sod English
• The National News Bureau of Thailand has outlined the vaccine distribution plan as followed:
  • February 200 thousand doses for medical staffs in the maximum and strict control areas and for the high risk groups.
  • March 800 thousand doses: 200 thousands for the aforementioned groups (2^nd injection),  600 thousands for the maximum control areas and other medical staffs
  • April a million doses: 600 thousands for the second group (2^nd injection) and 400 thousands for other officials.—National News Bureau of Thailand

Politics

• Thai Enquirer did a rare exclusive interview with the ousted and self-exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra on the premier’s legacy 20 years after coming into power.—Thai Enquirer
• Political activist Ekachai Hongkangwan visited the European Union Delegation in Thailand to ask the regional supranational entity to confiscate assets of the perpetrator. –Voice TV
• Deputy PM Wissanu said that should the Opposition needs to file a censure motion, it needs to do so by 28 February, which is the end date of the parliamentary session, as the delay might causes legal complication. The government legal pundit affirmed that for the Charter Rejig proposal and the national referendum bill, the government will hold a special parliamentary session to finish the discussion.—Krungthep Turakij
• After being spotted not accessible in Thailand, the dissident Rap Against Dictatorship band who sang ‘Reform’ song said their newest song was geo-blocked in Thailand. The song was criticism against the PM on the use of violence and human rights violation. A media reached out to the Minister of Digital Economy who said he does not have the knowledge of the matter. The same goes for Police’s Technology Crime Suppression Division whose deputy spokesperson said the division is not responsible for the court order in the geo-block.—BBC Thai
• So far, there have been 40 people, including two minors, who have been charged with the draconian lese majeste laws for insulting or criticising the King, Queen or the heir.–Prachatai

Economic:

Cabinet’s Decisions, 5 January 2021

• Approved for Thai Commerce Ministry to sign an MOU to forge a mini-FTA with the Indian state of Telangana at the end of January, 2021.  Source:  Daily News
• PM Prayut instructed DPM and Energy Minister Supattanapong; Finance Minister Akhom and the NESDC to work on launching additional measures to help the 40 million people who are affected by COVID-19 within 2 months.  The cabinet did not discuss reviving the 5,000 Baht cash-handout scheme, but instead will focus on introducing measures that reduce the cost of living.
• Agreed to review and extend the deadlines of the existing stimulus packages.  The details will be finalised at the COVID-19 Centre Situation Administration meeting this month.
• Approved of the 2022 budget, which totals 3.1 trillion Baht or a 5.66 percent decrease from the previous year’s budget.  Finance Ministry also estimated that revenue will decline by 10.35 percent to total 2.4 trillion Baht, resulting in a budget deficit of 700 billion Baht.  This is based on the forecast that the economy will grow by 3-4 percent and inflation by 0.7 – 1.17 percent.  Sources:  Krungthep  Turakij; Bangkok Post

Social Security Payment

• Workers affected COVID-19 can apply for social security compensation on the grounds of force majeur starting from 19 December.  They are entitled to receive compensation worth 50 percent of their daily wage for a maximum of 90 days.  This applies to workers insured under Section 33 of the Social Security Fund, including migrant workers.  Employers and employees must submit documents through an e-Service system from 4 December onwards via the link https://www.sso.go.th/eservices/esv/index.jsp.  Compensation payments will be made within 5 working days.  Source:  Thailand’s Public Relations Department fb page, 5 January 2021
• According to The Royal Gazette publication on 30 December, Social Security contributions of employers and employees under Section 33 is reduced from 5 percent to 3 percent of the monthly wage from January – March 2021.  Source: Royal Gazette Publication 30 Dec 2020
• Ministry of Labour confirms that contribution from the self-insured under Section 39 of Social Security Fund (SSF) is reduced from 432 Baht to 278 Baht from Jan – March 2021.  Welfare payment for childcare under SSF is raised from 600 Baht to 800 Baht per month per person, while welfare payment for childbirth is increased from 13,000 to 15,000 Baht.  Interest rate for loans extended to labourers who agree to work from home is lowered, with the maximum loan of 7 million Baht.  Sources:  Ministry of Labour announcement; Prachachat Turakij

Others

• To curb the Baht appreciation and establish the FX ecosystem, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) is liberalising onshore regulations for capital flows.  It is allowing non-financial companies that have trade and direct investments in Thailand to join the Non-Resident Qualified Company (NRQC) scheme.  These companies will be given flexibility in managing Baht liquidity as they will not be subjected to the end-of-day outstanding limit of 200 million Baht imposed on non-resident bank accounts.  This is the central bank’s move to reduce the Baht’s offshore transactions, which increased from 21 percent to 61 percent in 10 years (years 2009-2019) and has contributed to the rising Baht.  Sources:  Bank of Thailand Press Release TNN Thailand Bangkok Post
• China’s Sinovac Biotech has raised more than 500 million USD from investors to double the production of its COVID-19 vaccine to 600 million doses, CoronaVac.  Among the investors is Thailand’s Charoen Pokphand Group (CP Group), which will put in investment worth 515 million USD through its subsidiary, the Hong Kong-listed Sino Biopharmaceutical under CP Pharmaceutical Group.  This will give Sino Biopharmaceutical a 15-percent stake in Sinovac Life Sciences, the unit in charge of CoronaVac production.  CP Group, the parent of CP Pharma, was one of the first foreign companies to invest in China.  Sources: Asia Nikkei  Prachachart Turakij
• When Thailand assumes the chairmanship of APEC next year, it is hoped the country will be able to build a bridge between the United States and China, according to Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  This is because Thailand is known as a constructive player that can always find a common ground between developed and developing nations in any setting.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Inflation in December fell by a smaller rate of -0.27 percent YoY; the third consecutive month of improvement.  Consumer prices decreased less than expected in December because of higher prices of raw food, especially vegetables, fruits and meats, as demand increased.  Inflation in 2020 averages -0.85 percent.  For 2021, inflation is expected to remain in the negative territory in Q1 due to the soft lockdown, before rebounding to positive terrain from April onward, on the condition that the vaccines are administered.  Sources:  Krungthep Turakij   Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 5 January 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

• The CCSA spokesperson said in the daily press briefing outlining the CCSA approved guidelines:
  • Closure of premises risky to COVID infection
  • Takeaway only hours from 09.00pm-06.00am
  • Health screening for inter-provincial or between the maximum control area to control areas.
  • Avoid inter-provincial travels, exception for transport of goods
  • Alert provinces to manoeuvre resources for the set-up of field hospitals, should the situation escalates.
• The CCSA spokesperson also said that the CCSA is now designated five provinces (Samut Sakhon, Rayong, Chonburi, Chantaburi and Trat) as the ‘maximum and strict control area’ as per suggested by the Deputy Public Health Minister.
  • The PM affirmed that there will be no full lockdown in five provinces with high numbers of infection as suggested by the deputy Public Health Minister last night. The Public Relations Department FB said that the PM did not say he approved the lockdown of Samut Sakhon, Chonburi, Rayong, Chantaburi and Trat, rather it is the order for each maximum control area governor to step up the measures and strictness.—Thai Rath
• The CCSA has approved the extension of the emergency decree for 45 days to be from 16-28 Feb and the proposal will need to be stamped by the cabinet resolution.
• The CCSA spokesperson said that in Samut Sakhon cluster, there have been more than 2,500 confirmed cases in 45 provinces; in Rayong cluster, there have been 426 confirmed cases. More clusters now are from new year’s nightclub celebrations and from more traditional gambling sites like the cockfighting rings in the Central provinces.
• The PM said after the weekly cabinet meeting that the government has secured 35 million doses of COVID vaccine from AstraZeneca. The PM said the government is open for private sourcing of the vaccine, but the vaccine needs to pass the Thai Food and Drug. As for the timeline of the first lot of the vaccine arrival from Chinese Sinovac, by late March, 800 thousands doses of vaccine will be provided for 400 thousands people. By April, 1 million doses will be secured for 500 thousands people. By May, there will be 26 million doses being provided for 13 million people. The PM said that the government will secure vaccines for 60 million people.
  • The PM has ordered the authority to step up measures to crack down gambling dens and strictly control the border to prevent people from crossing to gamble in neighbouring countries.
  • The PM has ordered the economic sections to  introduce fresh stimulus package to facilitate people economically during the lockdown.
  • The PM said that King’s Rama IX established Siam Bioscience Co., Ltd. Has received King Rama X
• In regards to the vaccine access in Thailand, yesterday the PM said that he has ordered two million doses from Chinese Sinovac to be provided for medical staffs. The lot is expected to arrive by March.–Reuters
  • Please see the visualised timeline of the estimated time of arrival of vaccine to Thailand prepared by Bangkok Post attached.
• After the PM as the director of CCSA overruled the BMA announcement to impose takeaway only hours to be from 09.00pm-06.00am, the Bangkok governor abided by the CCSA resolution. All Bangkok health-related restrictions are summed up in the infographic attached.

Politics

• The Parliament has decided to defer the Parliament meetings for two weeks in a bid to curb the spread of COVID-19. The committee meeting can still proceed but it is recommended not to invite outsider to the Parliament to join the meetings.–Prachachat
  • Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu said that the defer will not affect the timeline of the legal abortion act, but assured the public that the postponement will not affect timeline of the constitutional amendment.—Siam Rath

Economic:

Social Security Fund

• The Labour Ministry will reduce the Social Security Fund contributions of employers and employees from January to March 2021 to help businesses survive the pandemic.  Some 100,000 employees who lost their jobs or are suspended from work on the grounds of ‘force majeur’ –  namely the closure of more than 6,000 businesses in 28 red-zone provinces in response to the pandemic – are entitled to receive 50 percent compensation of their daily wage from the Social Security Fund.  This is mandated by a new regulation published on 19 December 2020.  Sources:  Prachachat Turakij Bangkok Post

Budget

• Ministry of Finance has set aside 610 billion Baht to combat the new round of COVID-19 outbreak from 2 sources, namely 1) the 1 trillion Baht loan, of which there is 471 billion Baht of remaining budget and 2) the 140 billion Baht appropriated from the central budget.  If the 610 billion Baht budget proves insufficient to curb the infection, more could be appropriated from the civil servant budget. 
• CIMB Bank noted that the 610 billion Baht budget is sufficient only to keep the economy and businesses stable until the administration of vaccines and the return of international tourists.  Kasikorn Research Centre cautioned the government to spend wisely and reserve enough for the next round of outbreak.   
• NESDC reported that of the 1 trillion Baht loan, there is 471 billion Baht of remaining budget since the cabinet had approved for 525 billion Baht to be disbursed through 3 projects:

1.       Public health projects (total budget: 45 billion Baht) – 25 billion Baht is approved for disbursal, with the remaining budget of 424 billion Baht

2.       Remedial measures for farmers and the general population (total budget: 555 billion baht) – 386 billion Baht is approved for disbursal, with the remaining budget of 168 billion Baht

3.       Economic rehabilitation projects (total budget: 440 billion Baht) – 139 billion Baht approved for disbursal, with the remaining budget of 260 billion Baht.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij

Others

• The government has is averting hard lockdown on provincial levels because the economic cost is too high.  The Thai Restaurants Association projected that if restaurant dining was banned again, the economic damage across the entire supply chain would rise to over 100 billion Baht.  Already, restaurants foresee a 45 percent decline in their revenues as a result of the government’s ban on dine-in service from 9 PM – 7 AM. The Thai Chamber of Commerce said that if the new COVID-19 outbreak is not controlled within a month, the economy will lose between 1.5 billion and 2 billion Baht per day.  As such, the government has opted to call for the public’s cooperation in practising self-isolation and staying at home to avoid further outbreaks, which would necessitate a full lockdown.  Sources:  Thai PBS World  Bangkok Post
• Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) plans to establish a joint committee with the Tourism Authority of Thailand to roll out more inclusive stimulus packages to encompass a wider array of stakeholders from tour guides and transport operators to travel agents.  TCT called for the government to alleviate their wage burden to preserve employment.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Bank of Thailand and the Thai Bankers Association are set to discuss business continuity and debt restructuring plans to assist borrowers in the midst of COVID-19 outbreak.  Most banks are now helping borrowers by providing financial solutions on a case-by-case basis, against the backdrop of surging household debt of 86.6 percent of GDP (as of Q3 of 2020); the highest in 18 years and the average households’ debt service ratio of 27 percent.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The use of FTA privileges and the Generalized System of Preferences by Thai exporters fell by 14.76 percent YoY to UDS 45.60 billion in the first 9 months of 2020, in line with Thailand’s overall lower export.  The privileges were used mostly in the export of fresh Durians, synthetic rubber products mixed with natural rubber, fruits, trucks and air conditioners.   The top 5 markets that saw the highest use of privileges are China (USD14.44 billion), ASEAN (USD13.63 billion), Japan (USD4.85 billion), Australia (USD4.76 billion) and India (USD2.37 billion).  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 4 January 2021

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:

• The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration held its communicable disease committee and made the new set of restrictions, including the takeaway hours for all restaurants and stalls from 07.00 pm – 06.00 am, effective from 6.00 am tomorrow.
• The CCSA spokesperson said that the agenda of the extension of the Emergency Decree is on the bulletin at the CCSA meeting this afternoon. The spokesperson will update on the resolution tomorrow.
• The PM gave an interview ahead of the meeting with CCSA that the government does not want to impose lockdown measures and would like to ask for people’s cooperation. The PM said “if one does not want to get infected, one must not go outside. If everyone thinks like this, it will be safe”.—Thai Post
• After a famous virologist from Chulalongkorn University revealed that Thailand has seen four confirmed cases of the virulent new coronavirus strain from UK in state quarantine and has assured that the new strain is securely contained—Thai PBS The director-general of the Disease Control Department said in order to boost people’s confidence, the ministry will make recommendation to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to postpone the flights from UK to enter Thailand until having more information.—Thai Rath
• Yesterday, the PM signed two orders under the Emergency Decree. One is to designate 28 provinces as highly controlled areas (see attached). And the other is on regulations to remedy the Emergency Situation, see the infographic provided by the Thai PR Department attached.
• Useful official sites:
  • Summary of provincial COVID-19 control measures by the Tourism Authority of Thailand: https://www.tatnews.org/2021/01/tat-update-summary-of-provincial-covid-19-control-measures-as-of-new-year-2021/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=tat-update-summary-of-provincial-covid-19-control-measures-as-of-new-year-2021
  • Bangkok Metropolitan Data Centre: http://prbangkok-en.com/

Politics

• Six opposition parties are scheduled to meet today to discuss on the file a censure debate motion primarily targeting at the holy trinity of the government (PM Prayut, Deputy PM Prawit and Interior Minister Anupong). The Opposition aims to grill the government in mid-February.–Prachachat

Economic (kindly supplied by Khun Duangporn)

Economic Forecast for 2021

• For 2021, Finance Ministry said it will speed up budget disbursement and public spending; revamp tax structure to incentivise investment in new, value-added technologies and nurse Thailand’ economic growth back to pre-COVID19 level.  Economists have slashed Thailand’s 2021 economic growth projection in light of the delay in the return of international tourists as COVID-19 re-emerges in Thailand.  Some forecast that growth next year would average 2-3 percent and could fall below 2 percent if the infection could not be contained.   Source: The Nation, Krungthep Turakij newspaper, 4 January 2021, 

• The Office of Agricultural Economic projects that Thailand’s agriculture GDP in 2021 will grow by 1.3-2.3 percent as export of Thai meat, poultry, crops and fishery could benefit from the recovering global economies.  The FTAs that Thailand is currently negotiating would also widen Thailand’s export opportunities to other markets.  In 2020, Thailand’s agriculture GDP declined by -3.3 percent YoY due to export constraints caused by the pandemic and the persistent drought.  Sources:  Krungthep Turakij Thai Rath

• For 2021, the Bank of Thailand is monitoring 3 issues comprising 1) the resurgence of COVID-19 and its effects on economic recovery; 2) the slump in Thai exports caused by lockdown of other countries and 3) the Thai labour market, in which unemployment and Social Security compensatiosn remain high.  Jobless workers in the social security system accounted for 7.8 per cent of total unemployment in November, compared to 8.1 percent in October. Those receiving compensation payments accounted for 4.7 percent, little change from 4.9 percent in October.  Sources:  MCOT Channel  The Nation

• National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) identified unemployment in the tourism sector, higher household debt (83.8 percent of GDP as of Q2 of 2020) and SMEs’ liquidity issues as the 3 key areas of concerns for 2021.  NESDC advised the government to speed up FY2021 annual budget disbursement to reach 94.4 percent of total budget and accelerate private investment as well as incentivise factories to upgrade their technologies by importing machinery to counter the strong Baht.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Major tourism destinations concur that international tourists are unlikely to fully return to Thailand  in 2021.  They expect recovery to start in 2022, depending on the pandemic outbreak and vaccine development.  Business operators in Chiang Mai, Phuket and Koh Samui urge the government to provide clarity on the STV scheme and Alternative State Quarantine arrangements to ease their struggles.  Of the 660 hotels operating in Samui, only 180 are now operating, while Pattaya’s tourism revenue dropped to 40 billion in 2020 compared to the previous revenue of 240 billion.  Chiang Mai said that if Thailand reopens in 2021, it may achieve only 40 percent of tourism revenue.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Others

• Finance Ministry has asked hotel operators nationwide to allow those who made reservations under the ‘Rao Tiew Duay Gun’ or ‘We Travel Together’ scheme from 2 December onwards to postpone their check-in date from 6-12 months free of charge.  Krungthai Bank is adjusting the scheme’s payment system to accommodate the postponements.  Finance Ministry would also propose to the cabinet the extension of the scheme to 31 October.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• The export of farm, fishery and livestock products to 18 countries that Thailand has FTAs with inched up 1 per cent YoY in the first 11 months of 2020 to 13.52 billion USD, according to Commerce Ministry.  In November, the export of farm goods to these countries grew 12 percent MoM to 1.23 billion USD.  This includes export to Australia, which has lifted import tariffs for Thai rice and rubber products.  Source:  The Nation

• BOT disclosed that in November 2020, the Thai economy continued to recover as indicated by expansions in private consumption and investment in addition to public spending.  However, recovery remained uneven with the tourism sector continuing to experience contractions.  Thailand reported a 1.9-billion USD trade surplus in November, with merchandise export seeing smaller declines of -3.1 percent and import of -3.3 percent YoY.  Month-on-Month, November saw a 1.5-billion-USD trade deficit compared to October’s trade surplus of 0.99 billion USD.  Sources:  Bank of Thailand press release Bangkok Post