Updates related to COVID-19: (no information on migrant workers new cases from CCSA today)
Newly confirmed case(s)
Total Cases
Discharged from hospital
+46
5,762
4,095 (at 71.07%)
Local transmission
From abroad
Being hospitalised
Death toll
39 related to Seafood Market in Samut Sakhon province)
7 (in SQ)
1,607
60
Yesterday, the PM made a national address on Covid-19 resurgence – We must be strong, underlining that Thailand has done better than other countries on COVID containment and curbing the economic effects of it. The PM said he will meet with CCSA within this week and will announce additional regulations that may be appropriate for the evolving situation. The full statement in English can be read here.
The PM said this morning that the CCSA is scheduled to decide on measures to curb COVID tomorrow. The severity of measures will be different based on the level of transmission (into red, orange or green areas). The PM is reportedly said that we might need to sacrifice.—Krungthep Turakij
As of now, there have been three provinces and one district being on lockdown: Samut Sakhon (the province of the seafood market), Samut Prakan (three confirmed cases), Samut Songkram, Chaing Mai’s Mae Ai, Mallika and Tha Ton districts, including with Song Phi Nong District in Suphan Buri Province (two confirmed cases).–Prachachat; National News Bureau of Thailand
CBD’s Siam Centre Department Store has confirmed that one of their staff who works in a Korean BBQ restaurant is tested COVID positive. The confirmed case had the record of travelling to Samut Sakhon.–Prachachat
A Lamp store in Ekkamai confirmed that one of their staff is tested COVID positive. The confirmed stayed at “Andaman Lanta Resort” in the Southern province of Krabi.–Prachachat
Weather alert: Tomorrow as the cold air mass recedes, Thai Meteorological Department predicts that the perilous extra-fine dust PM 2.5 will return to Bangkok. Natural Resources and Environment Minister Varawut Silpa-archa said the PM approved the proposal of state officials to work from home from tomorrow (December 24) until Sunday to help keep PM2.5 dust levels in check.—National News Bureau of Thailand
Politics
This morning there were many people who saw the banner on an advertisement board next to the Eastern Bangkok motorway read “abolish article 112”.—Manager The lese majeste article has been increased dramatically against student-led protestors, including a minor. So far, there have been 37 people being charge.–Prachatai
The Opposition parties held a press conference saying that it will not join the National Reconciliation Committee as proposed by the House Speaker. It was reported earlier that the House Speaker would like to discuss with the Opposition leader on 22 December to invite the Opposition to be part of the committee aiming to resolve political conflict. The Opposition leader said the government actions are not facilitating the reconciliation process.—Krungthep Turakij
The Election Commission said the voter turnout of the PAO executive elections on Sunday was at 62.25 percent or around 29 ,million out of 46 million casted the vote.—Thai Rath
Economic
Kasikorn Research Institute estimates that the new wave of COVID resurgence would cost the economy 45 billion THB within one month timeframe. The economic effects consists of 13 billion from seafood businesses; 15 billion from the hesitant in celebrating and spending over the New Year period; 17 billion from the travel cancel. The economic think tank also said that the pandemic might have uncalculated effects on smaller vendors in markets as people try to avoid passing through the area with confirmed cases.—Thai Rath
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) made an unanimous decision to maintain the interest rate at 0.50% per year. The committee said the Thai economy might face high unpredictability, the interest rate would help maintain the economy. And the committee expected Thai economy in 2020 will be at +6.6 percent, which is better than expected due to the recovered export and private consumption.–Prachachat
The Deputy PM Wissanu said that in order to prevent further pandemic loose control event such as ‘Big Mountain’ to occur again, the CCSA will hold a meeting again on 17 December.—Krungthep Turakij
Politics
The student-led protestors are in disarray, as leaders from ‘United Front of Thammasat and Demonstration’ explicitly came out against ‘Free Youth Movement’ latest move on Communism. Parit ‘Penguin’ Chiwarak posted on his social media that he is not part of the Free Youth and said that the Free Youth’s idea is not the consensus of all student-led protestors. He remains persistent on the three demands, no less no more.—Thai Post
The United Front of Thammasat and Demonstration issued a statement saying that the movement is committed to the struggle for democracy without any authoritarian or feudalist domination. The group is manoeuvring for welfare state which would increase the quality of life for all.–Prachachat
A media said that after the Deputy PM Prawit brief that he is planning to nominate Suporn Attawong and Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana to be part of the national reconciliation committee under government quota, this would create conflict with the coalition Democrat Party. It is reported that the Democrat leader has nominated Democrat big name Terdpong Chaianan for the government quota. The Deputy PM and Commerce Minister was reportedly very angry about this abrupt change.—Inside Thailand
In the press briefing royalist Warong Dejkijwikrom, the leader of right-wing Thai Bhakdee organisation, said there have been similar cases of legal prosecution against those who threaten or criticise the monarchy in Western European countries under monarchy. Thai Bhakdee is preparing three measures to support the use of Article 112.
The first measure is asking people to send the evidence of anti-monarchy comments to the organisation. They will prepare a legal suit to be filed later.
The second measure is to hold a public forum to give people knowledge on the issue. Earlier, they plan to hold a gathering at Lumphini Park. Rather they will hold an online lecture session.
The third measure is to submit a letter to the Minister of Digital Economy to step up measures to prosecute online users who posted anti-monarchy comments.—Thai Bhakdee Live
ASEAN/World
The Thai Cabinet has endorsed result document of the 20th India Ocean Rim Association Council of Ministers – IORA COM, held online on 17 December via teleconference. The Emirates statement also welcomes France as the 23rd member of the Association.—National News bureau of Thailand
The cabinet also acknowledged the result of 3rd summit on Mekong-Lancang Cooperation framework. The Vientiane Declaration also aims to increase the cooperation on non-traditional security and to address the pandemic.—Royal Thai Government
Economic
Cabinet’s Decisions, 15 December
Finance Ministry reported that Thailand’s public debt is 49.3 percent of GDP, or 7.84 trillion Baht as of 30 September. Despite this being an increase from the 41.1 percent debt last year, the cabinet acknowledged that Thailand’s public debt remains below the ceiling of 60 percent and fiscal discipline is sound. Of the 7.84 trillion Baht debt, 1.78 percent is international debt. The higher debt stemmed from government borrowing to rehabilitate the economy and its investments in infrastructure projects. Finance Ministry forecasts that public debt to GDP will not rise above 57 percent over the next 5 years. Sources:Krungthep TurakijPoojadkarn OnlineBangkok Post
Agreed to put the proposed Chana Industrial Estate in the southern city of Songkhla on hold. Instead, a panel would be established to review the project as the city’s residents intensify their protests in Bangkok. Source:Bangkok Post
Others
PM Prayut announced that the Bang Sue Grand Station will open in late 2021 after he joined other cabinet members in touring the station. The Grand Station spanning 2,235 rai of land in Bangkok is set to become Thailand’s new and largest rail transport. It would gear Thailand towards becoming the largest rail transport hub in ASEAN, in addition to boosting economic growth, urbanisation and trade and investment. Source:Bangkok Post
Today the Board of Investment is organising a meeting with 35 representatives from various foreign chambers of commerce, presided by Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Supattanapong. The purpose of the meeting is to gain insights on the chambers’ proposal for economic recovery and address the obstacles that impede foreign investments as the pandemic outbreak eases. Source:Prachachart Turakij
The government’s tax revenue collection in October, the first month of FY 2021, fell short of its target by 15.4 billion Baht or 8.5 percent as the pandemic curbed the income and purchasing power of businesses and people. The net revenue is 167 billion Baht; 8 percent below the target and also 30.6 percent below the revenue collected in October 2021. For FY 2021, the Revenue Dept aims to collect 2.09 trillion Baht. As for FY 2020 (ending on Sept 30), revenue collection was 1.83 trillion Baht; slightly above the collection target of 1.82 trillion. Source:Bangkok Post
The government co-payment scheme covering the salaries of new graduates is falling short of its target to generate 260,000 new jobs, according to Labour Ministry. As of October, only 20,000 new jobs were created under the scheme. Labour Ministry would evaluate the effectiveness of the scheme until April, when a fresh batch of new graduates will be seeking jobs. Source:The Nation
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has postponed the launch of the 2nd phase of We Travel Together domestic tourism scheme due to reports of corruption. Some 312 hotels and 202 shops were found to have profited from abusing the scheme and are being investigated. The scheme will be postponed for at least month; a move which is anticipated to affect tourism in the high season. Source: Bangkok Post
TAT partners with the dating app, Tinder, to promote domestic trips for tourists who are single. TAT will introduce 3 tourism campaigns under the banner The Single Journey in December and January, which is expected to drive 7 million domestic trips and generate at least 100 million Baht in income by Q1 of 2021. Source: Bangkok Post
The Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand (IEAT) eyes building more eco-industrial towns. There are already 34 industrial estates that are recognised as eco-industrial towns, with a good balance between manufacturing and waste management. In October, the IEAT board has approved new industrial estates that will promote high technology and innovation. Source: Bangkok Post
Over the weekend, a huge annual concert “Big Mountain” made headlines as it was dismissed by the Nakhon Ratchasima governor.
On 13 December, the Governor penned down concert venue closure using authority under Emergency Decree and Communicable Disease Act. The provincial Communicable Disease Committee cited the requests by some who said the organisers are not taking enough measures to prevent COVID-19.
Later the organisers tried to appeal the closure order, yet the Governor upheld the order. However, the performance kept on going.
This morning the Governor has ordered the police to prosecute the organisers for violating the order.—Thai Rath
Online users are questioning why the other ‘Winter Festival’ in the area can be held.—New TV Or how come the World Heritage event in Ayutthaya can be held with sightings of people not wearing masks.–Matichon
Some users made an observations that in the concert, the anti-establishment three fingers salute was seen extensively, the same goes to the song that was used against the PM was well received. This might be the reason why the authority closed down the event.—Amarin TV
The CCSA spokesperson said in the press briefing that the later big events can be proceeded under the ‘new normal’ procedure. The spokesperson called for people’s cooperation to keep the pandemic at bay.—NBT Live
HM the King gave a rare structured Q&A to the royal volunteer at the 11th Infantry Regiment (King’s Guard). The King said “I’m just like other human beings. On some days I feel despondent. On some days I feel sad. On some days, I almost don’t want to fight the bad things. But it’s all human nature”. We should think about the country and think about how the institution of the monarchy and the people are inseparable. We need only look at what His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej The Great accomplished during his 70 years [reign]. Our younger generations may have forgotten about him.” —Bangkok Post HM the King said he has been treated unfairly by rumours and fake news since he was the Crown Prince, but it is a normal thing. The King said, he has no need to proof himself of anything. –BBC Thai
The perilous PM 2.5 has returned to Bangkok as a Bangkok Metropolitan Administration office reported that there are 56 areas which reported more than 50 micrograms per cubic metre, the Thai authority threshold.—Air4Thai
Politics
The issue of censure debate is back on:
On 13 December, the spokesperson of the Move Forward Party said that in the upcoming censure debate, the Opposition aims to tackle the PM as the prime problem. And Deputy PM Prawit and Interior Minister Anupong will also be grilled.—Khao Sod
Today Opposition Pheu Chat Party leader said the Opposition has not discussed on the idea of submitting a motion for the vote of no confidence. But he expects the Opposition will file the motion in January 2021 after the motions related to the Constitutional Amendment has been finalised. He said the apart from the PM, the Deputy PM Wissanu and top diplomat DPM Don are also on the list.—Matichon
Pheu Thai secretary-general said that the issues of BTS Green Line auction and the PM residency in the house provided by the Army will be part of the debate.—Krungthep Turakij
Secretary to the Ministry of PMO Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana said the Coalition is ready for the censure debate without any concern. He, however, concerns over the Pheu Thai intra-party conflict.—Daily News
The leader of the third largest Opposition Seri Ruam Thai Party came out to support the protestors’ bid to amend Article 112. The former Police Chief said the solution might be to differentiate those who defame or insult to be prosecuted under Article 326 Defamation and those who threatens to be prosecuted under Article 112.—Krungthep Turakij
A local German media reported that the King may not be returning to Germany after spending a prolonged period in Thailand, citing diplomatic sources. The article quoted local newspaper wrote that “local jewellers and gourmet food shops regretted his absence since ‘twenty accompanying businesswomen’ had also left and the significant revenues they generated had dried up.”—Nikkei Asia
Self-exiled dissent academic Pavin Chachavalpongpun posted on his social media that he has been followed and stalked by a suspicious man following orders of someone.—BBC Thai; The Nation Thailand
The local people from Southern Chana District in Sogkhla stands firm (for the fourth day) in their demands for the government to halt the Chana industrial estate project, the largest in Southern Thailand.–Prachatai
Yesterday, the protestors met with assistant to the minister to the prime minister’s office, Suporn Attawong, but the protestors turned him down, citing they will negotiate only with the Deputy PM Prawit.—ThaiPBS World
In their fourth day of camping, the security apparatus placed containers on a bridge to the Government House to block the protestors. The PM is reported to take a detour in order to get to work at the government throne.—Naew Na
Analysis/opinion
The PAO Executive election in the Northern city of Chiang Mai is the prototype to measure the political capital Red shirt chairperson Jatuporn Prompan has. Pheu Thai Party and self-exiled former PM Thaksin are supporting one candidate; while, former Red Shirt juggernaut is endorsing the other. The PAO Executive election in Chinag Mai is no longer about the candidacy per se, rather it is the tug of war between pro and anti-Thaksin fractions which certainly included the government.—Khao Sod
Economic
Akara Gold Mine
More than 300 Gold Mine Association members and former employees of the shuttered Akara mine convened, calling for the government to re-open the mine as a New Year gift. They demanded justice for the over 1,000 gold mine employees who faced economic hardship after they were laid off after the government ordered the closure of the mine 3 years ago. The gathering was infused with religious fanfare and ended without incident. The arbitration process between Kingsgate and the Thai government is expected to be completed in July 2021. However, an insider source indicated that Kingsgate is currently negotiating with the Thai government to reach a win-win solution. Source:Post TodayManager Online
Others
Commerce Minister Jurin threatened to move Thai commercial counsellors in 58 offices worldwide back to Thailand if they fail to boost export. Commercial counsellors and directors of Office of Thai Trade Centres are instructed to function as salespeople and assist businesses in reducing obstacles to exports. Minsiter Jurin ordered MoC’s Perm Sec Boonyarit and Director-General Somdet of International Trade Promotion Department to roll out new policies and KPIs for each commercial counsellor. Commerce Ministry’s plans include organising 343 marketing activities domestically and internationally, as well as pursuing FTAs with the EU, UK, Eurasian Economic Union and the European Free Trade Association. Source:Bangkok PostKrungthep TurakijThai Rath
The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) contemplates introducing short and long-term measures to tackle the rising household debt, despite the NPL ratio being at a low level of 3 percent. The measures will be targeted and will vary with the people’s ability to service debts, for example, converting credit card debt into long-term debt to give consumers purchasing power. Source:Siam RathMatichon
Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects the Thai economy to see a -7.8 percent GDP contraction in 2020 and a 4 percent growth in 2021, the latter of which is over 1 percent lower than Southeast Asia’s average. Overall, Southeast Asia will see encounter a -4.4 percent GDP decline this year (revised down from -3.8 percent in September), whereas East Asia is set to grow by 1.6 percent on the back of faster than expected recoveries in China and Taiwan. Source:The Nation
Anusorn Tamajai, former dean at Rangsit University’s Faculty of Economics, estimated that the second wave of Covid-19 outbreak would incur a loss of tourism revenue from 14.1 billion to 16.9 billion during the New Year. Research houses estimated that Thai consumers will cut their spending significantly and those living in Bangkok will spend around 30 billion Baht, which is below the average spending of the past two decades. He projected that the Thai Baht will strengthen further, as will the gold price. Source:The Nation
The role of the Board of Investment (BOI) in 2021 is to support economic restructuring and attracting Thai and foreign investors to upgrade industries and services with technologies and innovations. The BOI is currently improving the smart visa scheme for overseas technology freelancers and will submit the revised scheme for the cabinet’s approval this month. Source:Bangkok Post
Local hospital owners and real estate developers are foraying into the healthcare and wellness tourism sector that is made lucrative by the pandemic. Wellness tourism has been generating a substantial revenue of up to 409 billion Baht for Thailand in 2019. To date, the Board of Investment has introduced incentives in line with Thailand’s endeavour to become a medical hub in ASEAN. Tourism Authority of Thailand also aims to utilise the country’s advantage in the public health system and technology to revive the battered tourism industry. Source:Bangkok Post
The Excise Department is deliberating on restructuring the excise tax regime for cigarettes to strike a balance between public revenue, farmers’ income, public health and tackling illegal cigarettes. Source:Bangkok Post
Today, ‘Bad Student’ group is going to gather in front of the Ministry of Education from 4.00pm.
Politics
The German Parliament is having development on the status of residency of His Majesty the King Vajiralongkorn in Germany. Nikkei Asia interviewed Bundestag’s research service, which unveiled that the King has been residing long-term using private visa. Researchers concluded that the German government could choose to tie the king’s visa issuance to an explicit requirement that he appoint a regent in Thailand to act in his place there whenever he is absent in Germany.—Nikkei Asia
Media is focusing its attention on the upcoming Constitutional Court verdict on the status of the PM tomorrow:
The Court is set to rule if the PM should lose his post for violating the charter for his continued stay in an army residence after his retirement as an army chief in 2014. The court will read the verdict from 3.00pm.
The PM said that regardless of the verdict, he will respect that. He said by doing good deeds, he is confident that the verdict would be good for him.—Than Settakij
The student-led protests are going to gather at the Court in Northern Bangkok tomorrow.
Yesterday, the largest party in the House Pheu Thai party is on bulletin:
As its former chief strategist and the party PM candidate Khunying Sudarat resigned from the party.
Apart from the Pheu Thai juggernaut, Pokin Palakul, Watana Muangsook and Pongsakorn Unnopporn also resigned from the party.—Thai Rath
A media point out that the last straw for Khunying Sudarat to resign from the party (though she resigned from the Chief Strategist position earlier on) is when she went to help a candidate in North-eastern Roi Et PAO Executives election and the candidate was threatened by the new management team to be expelled from the party.—Inside Thailand
The student-led protest is facing its challenges:
Piyarat ‘Toto’, the leader of ‘WeVo’ We Volunteer protest guards, posted on his social media outlets saying that the volunteer guards will no longer active as there was a violence emerged from vocational student guards against the WeVo guards.—Kom Chad Leuk
Three students from ‘Bad Student’ movement group went to acknowledge the allegations of violating the emergency decree as the three went on stage defying the authority in mid-October.–Manager
Main figures of the protest went to acknowledge the allegations of violating Article 112 lese majeste at a police station. They said the allegation would not deter them from keeping on with the demonstration.–Reuters
The Election Commissioner has made a resolution to investigate the Progressive Movement (the political movement of the now-defunct Future forward Party) for acting like the Political Party which is against the Political Party Bills. The EC will investigate the three main figures of the movement. Should the movement is guilty, the three figures will face criminal charges and might have an effects on the candidates of the PAO supported by the Movement. The EC can temporarily halt the candidacy status or even hold a new election.—Thai Post
The Progressive Movement held a press conference on the latest IO (Information Operations) the army has been using to uphold the images of the monarchy; while undermining the protestors.—Progressive Movement
Student activism groups are calling for a nation-wide school uniform defiant campaign today. There have been reports and sighting of students not wearing their school uniforms. ‘Bad Students’, the main coordinator, set up a website https://badstudent.co/ to receive a petition from harassment by their teachers on today’s activity. St. Joseph Convent School in central Bangkok is the first on the batch with 257 reports of abuses by the teachers and school.—Bad Student
‘Bad Student’ is going to gather in front of the Ministry of Education from 4.00pm as some teachers and schools are harassing students.
The Education Minister said to the press that not wearing uniforms is against the Ministry’s regulations and stressed that the organiser of this activity is cruel using students as façade.—Khao Sod
Economic
Ten for Ten Proposals
At the ‘Status and Progress of Thailand’s Ease of Doing Business Reform’ briefing session held on 30 November, the Public Sector Development Commission (PSDC) announced that the government has been implementing some of the Ten for Ten proposals put forth by the 5 Ambassadors, while others are hindered by regulatory barriers. The Regulatory Guillotine project is underway and has identified that some 1,094 laws and regulations must be revised. It expects that the 85 percent of the guillotine project will be completed by next year. The government also eyes developing the National Single Window and National Digital Trade Platform, as well as promises to digitalize most of the license and permit issuing and renewal processes. Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Supattanapong added that the government aspires for Thailand to become the top 10 in World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business ranking by year 2022. The DPM affirmed that this goal is attainable, given that the government has been laying the foundation for this ascension for the last 5 years, particularly through infrastructure projects in Bangkok and the EEC. Sources: Krungthep TurakijThai RathBangkok Post
Others
The Bank of Thailand will organise a press conference on 9 December to announce a package to manage two-way movement as well as short and long term plans for foreign exchange rate. On average, the Baht’s value strengthened by 2.9 percent against the USD between Nov 2 and Nov 27, compared with a 0.4 percent appreciation in October. The currency appreciated by 1.1 percent against the USD on a YTD basis.
BOT also reported that the Thai economy is well on its way to recovery in Q4 despite reporting a higher contraction in October month-on-month. Private investment reported the greatest slump of -4.9 percent in October, whereas September was -2 percent, due to the fall in machinery, equipment and construction investments. Private consumption was a -1.1 percent contraction following marginal expansion (+0.4 percent) in September as the effects from special long holidays subsided. Public spending saw a -10 percent contraction due the delayed disbursement, but public investment was a +3.6 percent. Tourism sector remains in the decline despite the launch of the Special Tourist Visas. Sources: Krungthep Turakij newspaper, 1 December 2020 Bank of Thailand press releaseBangkok Post
The Digital Economy Promotion Agency (DEPA) introduced its digital blueprint for Thailand to drive digital transformation in a move to cope with changes in technology, consumer behaviour and the business environment. The blueprint was crafted to support Thailand’s 20-year digital economy development roadmap, which started in 2016. Source:Bangkok Post
Hotel operators in Chiang Mai are monitoring the market closely after new coronavirus cases re-emerged in northern provinces recently. The Thai Hotels Association’s northern chapter said that to date, only 1-2 percent of travellers has postponed or cancelled their trips. Hotel operators urged authorities to put in place stringent preventive measures and called on the communities to cooperate in tackling the spread of the virus. Source: Bangkok Post
Many mobile banking applications reported problems yesterday due to the large number of transactions that exceeded that of last month by 20 percent, soaring from 22 million to 25 million transactions. The banks have now cleared all the backlog of transactions and are working with the central bank to prevent future recurrences. Source: Prachachat Turakij
Over the weekend, Thailand witnessed the re-emergence of COVID-19 outbreak in Northern Chiang Mai. Two Thai ladies are tested positive after returning from Myanmar. An 29-year old lady is feared to be a super spreader as she had the record of travelling across provinces and to department stores.—all media outlet
In response to the COVID-19 emergence cases who could manage to cross borders into Thailand without any authority record or quarantine, Thai authorities are beefing up their surveillance and border protection to block illegal entry. The government spokesperson said the PM has stressed that anyone who is involved in these illegal entries will be prosecuted with no exception.—Royal Thai government
Politics
The student-led protest took the streets of Greater Bangkok to press for their three demands.:
On Friday, 27 November protestors occupied Lat Prao Intersection to prepare for anti-coup activism. Protest leaders called for ‘car-mob’ using personal cars to block the streets.—BBC Thai
On Saturday, 28 November, there were two minor protests at Bang na intersection in Eastern Bangkok and in Nonthaburi in Northern Bangkok.
On Sunday, 29 November, after witnessing tough barricade in front of the 1st Infantry Regiment, the protestors changed the venue to the 11th Infantry Regiment. The protestors claim that the rationale for the gathering is to bring back the two military units back to the control of the civilian government. Currently, the two main units are under the King’s command and control.–Reuters
The next gathering will be on 2 December at the Constitutional Court from 2.00pm to monitor the court’s verdict on the status of premiership and conflict of interest.
On virtual front, giant social media platform Twitter has suspended @jitarsa_school, the official account of the King’s own Royal Volunteers School, citing the account and tweets related to it a part of the information operation (IO).—The Sydney Morning Herald
Reuters made an analysis finding that more than 80% of the accounts following @jitarsa_school had also been created since the start of September. A sample of 4,600 of the recently created accounts showed that all they did was promote the royalist hashtags – an indication of the kind of activity that would not be associated with regular Twitter users.
Royalist group leader Warong Dechgitvigrom declined to comment on the account’s suspension, saying he was unaware of it. He told Reuters there were more pro-monarchy messages on Twitter because royalists increasingly recognised the need to counter protesters’ messages and had encouraged each another to join the platform.
There will be a lot of developments on the Parliament front this week
The Parliament is scheduled to debate on the referendum bill on 1 December as proposed by the government.
The government whip said that on the agenda of whether to send the Constitutional Amendment motion to the Constitutional Court; or not, the coalition will not provide a guideline, rather will be in ‘free-vote’ pattern. Democrat Party has indicated that they do not agree with the agenda.—Krungthep Turakij
Tomorrow will mark a significant day for student activism in Thailand as student nation-wide will dress in their ‘private’ costume, negating to wear their uniforms. This is a bid to reform the Thai educational system and to problematise the benefit of uniform. So far, the organisers said there have been students from 23 schools attending.–Matichon
Main figures of the protests went to Samran Rat Police Station to acknowledge the allegations of Article 112 lèse majesté. All protest leaders said they respect judicial system.—Nation TV
Economic
The Thai Chamber of Commerce submitted a white paper to PM Prayut on 29 November, which compiled a suite of economic stimulus measures put forth by the private sector for the post-COVID19 period. The paper was presented to Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Supattanapong following the Thai Chamber of Commerce’s 38th Annual Meeting. Proposals included: launching a tourism stimulus package known as the Happy Model; sustainable management of water and natural resources; improve the rules, laws and regulations for foreign tourists, high-skilled labourers and entrepreneurs; allocate budget for National Digital Trading Platform; expedite the development of e-government system; establish a committee between the public and private sectors for FTA negotiations between Thailand-UK, EU, CPTPP; extend the co-payment domestic tourism package and soft loan for the hospitality industry. Source: Khaosod
At the Thai Chamber of Commerce’s 38th Annual Meeting, Deputy Prime Minister Supattanapong expects 2021 to be a transitional year for Thailand to restructure its economy. He said a restructuring plan is expected by Q1 of 2021, focusing on building up the local economy and attracting FDIs, notably in new industries related to medical services, food, the circular economy, biofuel or clean energy, smart electronics and electric vehicles. He asked the Finance Ministry to improve the tax benefits to cover investment in the EEC and other areas nationwide, as well as to establish a central e-commerce platform similarly to Lazada. He also anticipates that the Thai economy will rebound to normal level in 18 months. He expected more investments will come to Thailand in Q1 or Q2 of next year, the case in point being US and Taiwanese investors who have shown interests in investing in Thailand to supply its products to China. Sources:Bangkok PostPrachachat Turakij
Thailand’s manufacturing production index (MPI) in October dipped by 0.54 percent YoY, but rose by 0.45 percent from September. The Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) believse domestic industry is approaching its pre-outbreak momentum as monthly MPI has been rising since May. The October increase is attributable to rising production in key areas such as electronics products (+6.7 percent), processed fruit (+20 percent) and vegetables, and steel (+9.19 percent). Capacity utilisation in october was 63.2 percent, following September’s rate of 63.46 percent. Meanwhile, car manufacturing dropped by -2.24 YoY; a smaller contraction from September. Source:Bangkok Post
The Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) is preparing to launch a secondary market by July 2021 for the trade of government savings bonds. Investors will be able to sell government savings bonds to financial institutions that distribute these bonds before the maturity date. Banks will calculate their purchase price at a discounted rate. This will be helpful for investors who hold government savings bonds but want to convert them into cash to increase their liquidity. Source:Bangkok Post
The Finance Ministry announced via The Royal Gazette that Thailand’s outstanding public debt stands at 7.84 trillion Baht, or 49.34 percent of GDP as of 30 September. Some 98.22 percent is domestic debt, while 139.39 billion Baht or 1.78 per cent, is overseas debt. Sources: The NationPrachachart Turakij
PM Prayut has acknowledged Standard & Poor’s stable credit rating (BBB+) for Thailand and is confident the Thai economy will recover well next year. The amount of public debts is not raising any concern because it is below the 60 percent ceiling and the ongoing political situations do not have significant impacts on national economic growth and the efficiency of the government. The Thai economy was likely to recover in the next few years. Sources:MCOT
The political tensions are escalating for the upcoming Parliament debate session for the Constitutional Amendment this Tuesday and Wednesday.
o Student-led protestors are vowing to surround the Parliament from 3.00 pm on 17 November until the Parliament endorsed the people’s draft (iLaw).
o Thai Bhakdhi (Loyalist Thai) Group was also planning to gather in front of the Parliament from 9.00 am to oppose politicians who are joining hands with foreigners to amend the Constitution.Today at a press conference, the group said they will just submit a letter to the Senate spokesperson, and that all activity will end before noon.—Krungthep Turakij
o Yesterday, the Chairperson of the coalition Democrat MPs said that the party will hold a meeting later today to calibrate the party’s stance. The main figure of Democrat Party gave an interview this morning that there should not be a ‘surprise’ by not endorsing the charter rejig proposals as it would destroy all trust the protestors have on the government.—Inside Thailand
There are seven proposals from three main actors for the Constitutional Amendment. These are the main content of the stances by each actor.
Proposals/actors
Coalition
Opposition
iLaw
Section 159 nominating the PM
X
Only MP can be the PM
Only MP can be the PM
Section 256 Setting up the CDA
200 (150 from election+50 indirectly elected)
200 (all from election)
200 (all from election)
Section 270 and 271 Senate power to overlook the national reforms
X
O
O
Section 272 Senate to vote for a PM
X
O
O
Section 279 legalising the orders issued by the junta NCPO, including its amnesty
X
O
O
Reintroducing two-ballot system
X
O
X
Reservation
Section 1 and 2
Section 1 and 2
X
Cancelling NCPO’s 20 Year National Strategy, Senate hand-picked by NCPO, Sourcing the new executives of Independent organisations, all local authority executives must come from elections
X
X
O
Last weekend, there were unprecedented political developments:
o On Saturday, Bad Student and other organisations joined hands in the ‘Mob Fest’ occupying the Rachadamneon Avenue to voice the subaltern’s concerns which have been peripheralized.
o The protestors had a minor clash with the police as they were trying to wrap the Democracy Monument with a big white cloth protestor had written their wishes. The police said it is looking to prosecute those who wrapped the cloth over the monument for destroying historical site.–ThaiPBS
o As the motorcade carrying their Majesties scheduled to open the extension of a Subway line passed by, protestors turned their backs, gave the three-fingered “Hunger Games” salute, and sang the national anthem in the latest show of disaffection with the monarchy.–Reuters
o Parit ‘Penguin’ was back on stage on Saturday saying the three demands are still on going. The student protest leader then addressed to the King directly by saying “As you had said earlier that Thailand is the land of compromise, I would say no justice, no compromise. And there will be no compromise, if the three demands are not met”.
o HSH Prince Chulcherm Yugala who was freshly appointed the special officers under the King’s Guard Section commented on the student-led protest’s activity to wrap the monument, saying that if these protestors are not respecting the monument, then there is no use of it, just demolish the monument as it is impeding the traffic.—Khao Sod
I. The Democracy Monument is a part of series of architecture the People’s Party which ended absolute monarchy has built. There have been reports of those buildings/monuments being vanished or demolished.–Prachatai
o On Sunday, main figures of the protests, excluding Anon Nampa, were back on stage at the Eastern province of Rayong pressing three demands and questions the benefits of the government flagship project of Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC).—Thai Rath
o On the opposite side of the political aisle, Taya Teepasuwan, partner to the Education Minister wrote on her FB Page calling for unity. She said that their Majesties are modern monarch who have been comprehending and close to the people. She said this is the new page of Thai history.–Matichon
As the newly debut song by dissent RAD (Rap Against Dictatorship) “Reform” got a warning by the police that they are examining should there is content that is against the law.Should there is any, it will be removed from the internet system and the band will be prosecuted.—Thai Rath The video has now got more than 2.5 M views.
Super Poll publishes its opinion poll on half-half co-payment scheme and political popularity, asking which party they are choosing, should there is an election today:
Other parties which introduce the ‘real new politics’ way
59.6
16.8
Other
1.5
45.1
Economic:
CPTPP Parliament Committee
The CPTPP Parliament Committee presented its report to the parliament on 12 November following a 120-day study from 11 June – 8 October 2020. The committee concluded that Thailand is not ready to join the CPTPP and needs more time to prepare its budget, policies and human resources in preparation for accession process. Should the US return to the CPTPP under the stewardship of its new President, it is unlikely that the same set of deals tabled under TPP will be negotiated or enforced as Thailand will object it. Source: Prachachart Turakij
Strategic Partnership and ASEAN-Australia Summit
Australia’s and Thailand’s Prime Ministers on 13 November signed a Joint Declaration on the Strategic Partnership via teleconference. This has raised their bilateral relationship into a “Strategic Partnership” by strengthening defence cooperation and trade. Relevant agencies in Thailand and Australia will soon consult over developing a Joint Plan of Action which will lay out a plan and concrete activities in line with the Joint Declaration. The announcement came ahead of the virtual ASEAN-East Asia and ASEAN-Australia summits that will run from 14-15 November. Sources:Bangkok PostThansettakijKom Chad LuekThe NationThai Government website All Media
The 2nd ASEAN-Australia Summit took place on 14 November, in which Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison proposed 2 areas of cooperation to propel ASEAN’s economic growth. These include cooperation in Bio Circular and Green Economy initiatives, in addition to digital economy, such as through the ASEAN-Australia digital trade and smart cities. Australia also vowed its support to assist ASEAN economies weather through the COVID-19 economic storm. Source:Manager OnlineDaily News
Ten for Ten
US Ambassador Michael George DeSombre and his counterparts from Australia, Britain, Germany and Japan proposed 10 steps for Thailand to crack the top 10 in the World Bank’s global ease of doing business index. Australian Ambassador Allan McKinnon PSM noted that Australia welcomes the return of the US to CPTPP. Sources:Thai RathThe Nation Prachachat Turakij newspaper, 14 November MatichonSiam Rath
Pheu Thai Party urged PM Prayut to heed the 5 Ambassadors’ Ten for Ten proposals and swiftly digitalise all of the of the government’ systems. During PM Prayut’s reign, Thailand’s ease of doing business plummeted and despite some improvements, its ranking has not returned to the pre-coup level. The Ambassadors’ public denouncement is said to reflect PM Prayut’s failure in managing the country during this period of economic slump, particularly in helping the SMEs, addressing NPLs and currency appreciation. Source: Matichon Weekly
In response to the Ambassador’s ten for ten media roundtable, Prime Minister Prayut assured the ambassadors that the Thai government will consider all the proposals, some of which are being implemented. The Thai government will streamline them by reducing the red tape and attempt to drive the country towards the digital economy. Sources: Post TodayNaew NaThansettakij
RCEP
The 10 ASEAN members and their 5 dialogue partners signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) at the 37th ASEAN Summit hosted virtually by Vietnam on 15 November. RCEP is expected to be enforced in mid 2021 as each of the 15 nation will have to follow legal processes and internal steps for implementation. Sources: ThansettakijMatichon
Simon Birmingham, Australia’s Trade, Tourism and Investment Minister announced that the RCEP signing will revitalise Australia’s relationship with China. Their relationship deteriorated following Australia’s call for an investigation on China as the source of COVID-19 outbreak, which led to China imposing a ban imported Australian agricultural produce worth several thousands of USD. Sources:ThansettakijReutersMCOT Channel
RCEP is the world’s largest regional FTA, encompassing nearly a third of the world’s population and GDP. Its signing coms as Southeast Asia nations experience uneven recoveries from the pandemic. Whether RCEP changes regional dynamics in favour of China depends on the US’s response. Sources: BloombergAsia Nikkei Review
Commerce Minister Jurin said RCEP will increase Thailand’s market access to trade and investment in 14 countries. This is poised to benefit 4 groups of Thailand’s exported products including agricultural products (fruits and fishery); processed food and fruits; electronic products; services (construction, health, entertainment, films) and retail. Source: The Standard
ASEAN/World
Super Poll publishes its opinion poll on Major Powers and domination over Thailand. On the question whether Thai people is afraid of the Belt and Road Initiative and its domination over Thailand, 84.2 said they are afraid of that; 15.8 said they do not have concerns. –Super Poll
Director of academic affairs of the Asean Studies Centre at Chulalongkorn University recommends Thailand to find ways to deepen and enhance our cooperation with China, India and the US. The economic pundit said Thailand should stick to the motto: friends to all; foes to none.—Bangkok Post
Analysis/opinion:
A media problematises the narrative of a clandestine financial support behind the protestors. It asked should there is any organisation or political party to financially support the protestors in Bangkok and in other provinces for months, their wallets would have been dried out by now. The author pointed out to the crowdfunding using by protest organisers to transfer 24.75 THB (reference to B.E. 2475 (A.D.1932) when absolute monarchy ended in Thailand).—Khao Sod
A media analyses the Constitutional Court verdict on the status of the PM on 2 December will not be as bad for the PM as many had expected. The media says PM Prayut’s case is not like the late former Samak case whereby he received the benefits from private companies and that during General Apirat’s term as the Army Chief, he had introduced a new regulation that retired military officer could stay in the army’s provided housing if the officer is still working for the benefit of the country. The media said Constitutional Court is a political court, whereby political calculus is still very dominant.—Siam Rath
A media speculates that the requests by junta appointed Senators to move the voting time whether to endorse the amendment drafts from evening to noon time in order to avoid being pressured by the student-led rallies is a sign that the Senates and the inner circle of the government will turn down the proposals the protestors are pushing for.— Thai Rath
Chinese descents have been dominating the economic and social strata in Southeast Asia, and more so in Thailand. In the most recent cycle of conflicts, there are the good and the bad Chinese. The line is on allegiance to the Monarch. The logic behind this is the belief that Chinese immigrants prosper due to the kindness and generosity of Thai kings. Therefore, gratitude and loyalty are owed.–ThisRupt
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