Headlines summary as of 6 November 2020

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports eight newly confirmed cases, a total of 3,818 cases. Out of the total number, 3,639 have been discharged from hospital (at 95.31%); 119 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at 60 (+1). The newly confirmed cases are returnees from Switzerland, India, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine and the Netherlands. All have been in state quarantine since. The other three tested positive are Myanmar people and have been transported back to be hospitalised in Myanmar.
  • The newly reported deceased is a Thai national who returned from the UK on 19 October and has been hospitalised in Chonburi since 22 October. The retired state officer (66) has Type 2 Diabetes and high blood pressure.

Politics

• Breaking: The Twitter accounts of Free Youth Movement @freeyouthth and Thatthep ‘Ford’ @fordtattepRuang have just been suspended for violating Twitter’s regulations. The social media platform has been one of the main channels to communicate and disseminate information.—Naew Na
• There are more scheduled protests:
  • On Saturday, Gender TH (LGBTQ+ group) is going to hold a ‘Peasant Pride’ march from Samyan Intersection to Silom Road in a symbolic gesture against all the oppressors. This is the second gathering called by the group since late July.
  • On Sunday, the main organisers of the student-led protest are going to hold a large rally from 4.00pm at the Democracy Monument, asking every participants to prepare a letter to be submitted to the King. The organisers continue to press for their three demands. The location where they are going to file the petition to the King remains unstated.
    1. The organiser claims that the letter should be focused on how they would like the King to adjust himself to be in accordance with the Democratic polity. The organiser gave examples: how they would like the King to be under the constitution, not to endorse any coup d’état, not to be manipulated by any dictator. —Free Youth
  • The focus will be on whether two main figures of the student protestors Parit ‘Penguin’ and Panusaya ‘Rung’ will be on stage as the two announced that they were discharged from hospital. The two pledged joining the protests once getting better.–ThaiPBS
  • On 21 November, the ‘Bad Student’ group announced that they will escalate the demands from calling the Education Minister to resign and focus on education reforms to more on the broader political issues. The location and timing of the gathering is to be confirmed.
• Yesterday, the Royal Gazette published the King’s order to appoint three members of the extended royal family to be special officer at the King’s Close Bodyguard Command.
  • The appointment has sparked criticism by the protest leaders; namely, Anon Nampa, Parit Cheevarak and Piyarat Chonthep claiming this is the exercise of power beyond the Constitutional Monarchy regime would allow. And this is the very reason they are pressing for the monarchical reforms, as this is the arbitrary use of power. One of the appointees Julajerm Yugala, who is appointed General, is according to Piyarat a vocal critique of the democratic movements in Thailand.
• The embattled PM Prayut made an interesting remarks to a course-opening event at the prestigious Thailand National Defence College. He said “If in the future, there is a person who is better, more capable and more honest than me, similarly honest, [he or she] would continue the work and be in charge of the country”.—all media outlet

Analysis/opinion

• As the Constitutional Court is scheduled to have a verdict on the status of the PM on 2 December, former Red Shirt leader Jatuporn Promphan said that the court verdict citing the PM is not qualified will be a perfect ‘soft landing’ for the PM as the government has lost legitimacy economically and politically.—Post Today
• A media analyses the Constitutional Court verdict as not beneficial to the PM politically, regardless of the result. Should the court rules in favour of the PM, it would fall into the continual dissidents’ sentiment of “double standard” and would spill over to be against the overall establishment.—Thai Rath

Economic:

• The Trade Competition Commission Committee has passed a resolution permitting a ‘conditional merger’ worth 10.6 billion USD between Charoen Phokphand Food (CPF) and Tesco Lotus Store (Thailand) and Tesco Store (Malaysia) on 2 November.  The terms of the conditional merger will be disclosed by the Trade Competition Commission soon.  Suppliers expressed concern that the merger will amplify CPF’s monopoly power over retail outlets and will further depress their already non-existent bargaining power.  The merger will give CP control over the largest number of retail-wholesale businesses in Thailand, with a total of 14,312 stores nationwide, comprising hypermarkets and convenience stores (Tesco Lotus, Macro, Tesco Lotus Express, 7-11, CP Fresh Mart).  In fact, the retail market will now be monopolised by 2 conglomerates; CP Group and Berli Jucker (own by Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi), both of which will use their retail outlets to expand the reach of their extensive line of food products.  Sources:  Prachachat Turakij TNN Thailand

• At the annual meeting between the Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce in Thailand (JFCCT), Business Development Department and DPM and Commerce Minister Jurin, the JFCCT proposed for Commerce Ministry to allow foreigners to take 100 percent ownership in Thai businesses on List 3 of the Foreign Business Act in the next 3 years, particularly those related to digital adoption and innovation services.  This liberalization will attract foreign investments into Thailand in the wake of COVID-19.  JFCCT also raised other issues with the Minister, such as post-COVID-19 tourism policies, logistics with neighbouring countries and Thailand’s stance on various FTAs, RCEP and CPTPP.  Commerce Ministry agreed to meet with the foreign chambers of commerce more frequently, to twice a year.  Sources:  The Nation Siam Rath Bangkok Post

• On November 15, Thailand is set on attending the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) at the 37^th ASEAN Summit under the chairmanship of Vietnam.  This will mark the first signing of such an agreement conducted online.  PM Prayut will also attend high-level conferences including Mekong-Japan and Mekong-ROK and RCEP Summits from Nov 12-15.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Headline inflation in October decreased for the 8^th consecutive month, declining -0.50 percent YoY but is an improvement from the 0.7 percent drop in September.  The October increase is attributable to the rising price of food and non-alcoholic beverages, while core inflation rose by 0.19 percent.  For the first 10 months of 2020, headline inflation was -0.94 percent and core inflation was 0.31 percent.  Annual headline inflation in 2020 is projected at -1.1 percent (within the range of -1.5 percent and -0.7 percent).  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Ministry of Foreign Affairs invited foreign diplomats based in Phuket, among them an Australian diplomat, to discuss economic stimulus measures to revive Phuket’s tourism sector.  To date, some 200 Chinese nationals were granted permission to enter Thailand through the Special Tourist Visa.  MFA disclosed that it is working with related agencies to lure more tourists by providing more lucrative tourism packages and vouched its support to help shape Phuket into a global centre for hospitality business in the post-pandemic era.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• The second round of registration for the co-payment Khon La Kreung scheme is scheduled for 11 November as some applicants are not expected to use the subsidy within 14 days after they have registered.  The scheme has been running since October 23, and as of 4 November, accumulated spending by both the government and individual registrants was 5.8 billion Baht.  The total budget for the scheme is 30 billion Baht.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Thailand’s Q3 agricultural GDP reported a smaller decline of -0.4 percent YoY, owing to the surge in demand for meat and dairy from China and Japan.  This somewhat offset the drop in the production of economic crops such as rice, tapioca, pineapple, palm oil, mangosteen and rambutan due to the drought.  Thailand’s annual agricultural GDP in 2020 is expected to contract between -2.4 to -3.4 percent.  Sources: The Nation Prachachart Turakij

Headlines summary as of 5 November 2020

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports six newly confirmed cases, a total of 3,810 cases. Out of the total number, 3,623 have been discharged from hospital (at 95.09%); 128 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at 59. The newly confirmed cases are returnees from France (2), Germany (1), the Netherlands (1) and Hungary (1). All have been in state quarantine since. The other tested positive is Myanmar person and has been transported back to be hospitalised in Myanmar.
  • Yesterday, Thai health authority informed the press that Hungary’s minister of foreign affairs and trade tested COVID-19 positive after arriving in Thailand for an official visit. The minister returned to his homeland later yesterday. The delegation was supposed to make a two-day visit aimed at strengthening ties, especially in economic matters and is scheduled to meet with the PM and the Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Don. Earlier, the top Hungarian diplomat met with Cambodian PM and Foreign Minister.–AP and all media outlet

Politics

• Breaking: The student-led protest organisers just announced that they are calling for a major rally from 4.00pm Sunday 8 November at the Democracy Monument. The organiser is asking every participants to write a letter to be submitted to the King.
• At the press conference, the student-led protest organisers (mostly new faces) announced that they will not take part in the House Speaker-led and government-endorsed ‘national reconciliation committee’, calling it a political ploy to buy more time. The protest leaders reaffirmed their three demands and insisted that “the problems our nation faces cannot be solved if Prayuth remains in power.” They claimed that now they have assembled all youth democratic organisations and they are planning for the next step, without any detail, to oust the PM.–Prachachart
  • On the authority front, the House Speaker told the press that he is preparing to seek advices from former Prime Ministers, including Gen Surayudh who is concurrently serving as the head of Privy Council. The veteran politician said that he is reaching out to the Privy Councillor not for his current position, but as the former PM and that there will be no discussion on the monarchical reforms.—Krungthep Turakij
  • Out of the blue, the former main opposition Pheu Thai chief strategist Sudarat posted on her social media outlet suggesting the government to issue a decree to set up the reconciliation committee with rigid timeframe. There needs to be a ‘safe space’ for all parties to discuss this: the prosecutors need to hold any political case for the time being; all parties will discuss the solution in the Parliament with immunity. After the third reading of the Constitutional amendment has passed the Parliament approval, PM Prayut needs to sacrifice by resigning as he is the central of the current conflicts. Then, the National Drafting Assembly will proceed on drafting the new constitution within 8 months.–Sudarat Keyuraphan
• The government spokesperson has informed the press that the PM has penned down the Referendum Bill:
  • The PM aims for the motion to go to the parliament that will urgently consider a bill to enable a national consultative process. This will give citizens the opportunity to express their opinions on modifications to the constitution and cabinet resolutions.—Asia Nikkei Review
  • The Deputy PM Wissanu has clarified that the main content of the bill is on the Constitutional Amendment under section 256. Now, there is one question the Election Commission is aiming to ask in the referendum “Do you agree with the new draft of the constitution?” And with the earlier reports that the government eyes for the referendum to be held on the same day as the PAO executive election on 20 December, the legal pundit fears that it might not be able to fit into the timeframe.—Siam Rath
• The Constitutional Court will rule on the  status of the PM as he prolonged his stay in the army-owned residence beyond retirement on 2 December. The case was filed by the opposition leader Sompng whether the PM’s residing in the house is considered a conflict of interest, which is against the Constitution.—all media outlet
• After being accused of being manipulated by American-Jewish as revealed by the politician-turn activist Warong and key royalist figure Haruthai, iLaw posted that it is true that the civil society got funding from those organisations, but they have no authority in dictating what iLaw will or will not do. The NGO which has been pushing for constitutional amendment said that such information is already been open to the public and there is no secret of that. The sources of funding has no say in iLaw activities.—Thai Rath
• The police has instructed its personnel not to post anything that would deem ‘inappropriate’ on their social media outlet.—all media outlet

Analysis/opinion

• Considering the lesser numbers of participants joining the recent protests and that political parties are focusing their attention more on the PAO executives election, rather than supporting the protestors, a media points out that this might mean the protracted student-led protest is in decline. Many figures in the protest have expressed to make concessions particularly on the monarchical reforms. The student protestors are seeking a soft landing, which would save their faces.—Manager Online
• The main ruling Palang Pracharat Party decision not to send their candidates for the PAO executives and other local elections, including the Bangkok governor would do more good for the party unity than not. Focusing only on the Bangkok governor election, this would avert the conflicts between the PM and other Bangkok-based main figures in the PPRP (the Digital Economy and Education Ministers have been eyeing for filing their candidate (Taya Teepasuwan, the partner of the Education Minister), so does the PM).–Prachachart

Economic:

• Board of Investment (BOI) received 1,098 investment applications in the first 9 months of 2020, a 1-percent increase YoY, whereas investment value declined by 15 percent to 223 billion Baht.  Applications for medical sector saw the highest rise YoY of 132 percent to 65 projects and investment value increased by 75 percent to 14.7 billion Baht.  The value of foreign direct investment (FDI) declined by 29 percent YoY from January – September to total 118 billion Baht, with FDI application number seeing a 1 percent drop to 657 projects.  The Eastern Economic Corridor area attracted 313 projects (49 percent of total applications), worth 109.4 billion baht in value.  Sources:  Thansettakij Bangkok Post
• BOI launched fresh privilege package for electric vehicles (EVs) following the expiration of the previous package in 2018.  The new package includes a 3-year tax holiday for manufacturers of plug-in hybrid vehicles and a maximum 8-year corporate income tax waiver for battery EV producers.  While the previous package focuses on cars and passenger vehicles, the new one covers all aspects of the supply chain, from Battery Electric Vehicles to auto parts and commercial vehicles of all sizes.  Source:  Bangkok Post Krungthep Turakij
• Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) maintains its GDP forecast of -7 to -9 percent contraction this year, amid mounting concerns that the second wave of outbreak in foreign countries may deter Thailand’s Q4 economic recovery.  JCCIB noted that improvements are evident in Q3 through farm and industrial sectors, but that the new lockdown measures could shave off 0.3 – 0.5 percent from Thailand’s GDP.  JSCCIB urged the government to establish a joint working committee between the private sector and state agencies to prepare for accession to CPTPP and other FTAs in preparation for the new US President.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Kasikornbank Research Centre predicted that if Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins the US presidential election, it will be a boon for the US, global and Thai economies.  It forecasts that a Biden victory would lead to robust US economic growth of 3 per cent or more in 2021, wherein every 1 percentage point of US growth will translate into Thai economic growth of 0.2 points.  A Biden win would also drive Thai exports to the US to surge by 10-20 percent.  CIMB opined that both Biden and Trump favoured nationalistic policies over free trade.  If Biden wins, Thailand should join the CPTPP, but Chinese factories would be less likely to shift to Thailand.  Source:  The Nation
• Thailand’s cross-border trade, including transit trade, fell by 4.88 percent YoY in the first nine months of 2020, attributable to the pandemic and the slowing economy.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Central Bankruptcy Court has permitted low-cost airline Nok Air to embark on the rehabilitation process, with its business plan poised to be rolled out by January 2021.  Nok Air has filed a rehabilitation petition with the court in July, having racked up 26 billion Baht in debt as a direct consequence of pandemic outbreak.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Commerce Ministry (MoC) will organise the final discount scheme of the year, encompassing over 13,000 items nationwide throughout November to help reduce people’s cost by an estimated 500 million Baht.  This is the 7^th campaign in which MoC has partnered with modern trade, local department stores and suppliers to offer up to 70 percent discounts.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 4 November 2020

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports seven newly confirmed cases, a total of 3,804 cases. Out of the total number, 3,612 have been discharged from hospital (at 94.95%); 133 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at 59. The newly confirmed cases are returnees from Russia, Jordan, Kuwait, Italy, Maldives, France and Sweden. All have been in state quarantine since.

Politics

• The student-led protest is scheduled to organise a major press conference at the Sanam Luang (Royal Field) 4.00pm to outlay their further moves.
• The political spotlight is now on the National Reconciliation Committee as proposed by the House Speaker:
  • The Opposition whip gave an interview with the media that King Prajadhipok’s Institute has been assigned to hold a roundtable seminar next week to brainstorm ideas with various sides including protest leaders and academics over the structure of a reconciliation committee that is deemed acceptable to all sides.—Inside Thailand
  • The Opposition whip said yesterday that the Opposition will wait and see how the structure of the Committee will look like and the protestors’ response to the panel before deciding to join.—Voice TV
  • A vocal MP and Palang Pracharat Party’s deputy leader Paiboon threatened to sue the Committee, should the panel discusses on the protestors’ proposal on monarchical reforms. The MP questions whether the committee will be manipulated to force the PM to resign.—Khao Sod
• After some media quotes Deputy PM Wissanu’s interview after the cabinet meeting that the PM is ready to pen down the Referendum bill by 3 November’s evening.—Than Settakij This morning the PM neither confirmed nor declined whether he has signed the bill.—Nation TV
  • For background, the cabinet has given its resolution to the Referendum Bill earlier in  September.—Thai Rath
  • A Senator who is brother to Deputy PM Wissanu eyed for the referendum to be held on the same day as the PAO executive’s election (20 December).—Prachachat
  • Office of the Council of State has submitted the draft to the Cabinet Secretary’s Office (CSO) on 23 October and the CSO will put in on the cabinet weekly meeting bulletin, then to the House to debate for 60 days and to the Senate for 30 days.—Thai PBS
• The House Speaker said that the Parliament will discuss on charter rejig proposals on 17 November. If the Parliament could not finalise the vote, it could be extended to 18 November.—Krungthep Turakij
• A politician-turn-activist Warong Dejkitvikrom posted on his social media platform the foreign organisations which have been supporting iLaw in its bid to amend the Constitution. The former politician who was asked publicly by the King to “Help make the truth out” listed:
  • 1. Open Society Foundation (OSF)
  • 2. Heinrich Bll Stiftung (HBF)
  • 3. National Endowment for Democracy (NED)
  • 4. Fund for Global Human Rights (FGHR)
  • 5. American Jewish World Servic (AJWS)
  • 6. Occasional support from Google.—Nation TV
• There is a power shift in the government hard-line supporter TV station as one of the most famous news anchor left Nation TV to join the neighbouring New TV starting 1 December. The owner of Nation TV said the departure would not affect the viewership of the channel.—Isranews Agency
  • A political commentator and media veteran Atukkit Sawangsuk gave an insight on this power play via his FB that Somchai Mesen who is more middle liner and close to the ‘Fantastic Four’ under former Deputy PM Somkid is fully back on stage, pushing Sonthiyan who is more hard liner (main figure in the right-wing Thai Move Institute) aside. The earlier online campaign by protestors of boycotting Nation TV sponsors effect the TV channel badly.– Atukkit Sawangsuk

Analysis/opinion:

• A media questions the intention of the House Speaker in inviting former Prime Ministers to be the mediators of the Reconciliation Committee set up by the King Prajadhipok’s Institute. The four PMs (Anand Panyarachun, Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, Somchai Wongsawat and Abhisit Vejjajiva) named by the House Speaker have expressed their defiance of having Gen Prayuth as the PM on different occasions. The pro-government media regards this move by the House Speaker as the Democrat ploy to oust the PM with this committee.—Kom Chad Leuk
• A media quotes staunch royalist who commented earlier that “I see a coup as not a bad thing” and the possibility of the other coup in Thailand. The report rolls out the security forces roles in Thailand, ranging from political, economic aspects and as the guardian of the monarchy.—The New York Times
• A Thai lecturer at the Australian National University compares the current protracted conflict with that of the student-led rallies in 1976 which ended in a massacre of students in which right wing civilian groups participated. The pundit on civil society calls for the government to set up a safe space for public debate where clashing views on democratic governance are deliberated, challenged and peacefully resolved.—New Mandala

Economic:

Cabinet’s Decisions, 3 November 2020

The cabinet approved various measures to assist SMEs and tourism operators:

• The ceiling for the Government Savings Bank’s (GSB) soft loan scheme for SMEs, including those in the tourism sector, is raised to 100 million Baht per borrower from 20 million Baht, with annual interest of 2 percent. The loan application period is extended from 30 Dec, 2020 to June 30, 2021.

• The Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation (TCG) will provide loan guarantees worth 57 billion Baht, which will be made accessible to SMEs.  The TCG will collect a 1.75 percent annual insurance fee from the third year of borrowers’ 8-year contract.

• GSB will extend its 5-billion Baht soft loan for tourism-related businesses to June 30, 2021.  Each can borrow 500,000 Baht on a 5-year term, with 3.99 percent annual interest.

• The SME Development Bank of Thailand will extend its 10-billion-Baht cash loan scheme until June 3, 2021, with 3 percent interest.

• Tax on jet fuel will be cut from 4.726 Baht per litre to 0.20 Baht from 3 Nov, 2020 to 30 April, 2021. The tax cut will cost the government 700 million Baht, but is expected to boost travels.  Source:  The Nation

• Price guarantee schemes worth 61.9 billion baht is extended to rice and rubber.  The two schemes will be administered by the state-run Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Approved of a 2.3-billion-Baht budget to fund 12 projects that promote the conservation and rehabilitation of marine resources and Andaman coast for sustainable tourism.  Source:  National News Bureau of Thailand fb page, 3 November

Others:

• The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has called for Thailand to develop clear international trade negotiation policies on various FTAS, CPTPP and RCEP regardless of who wins the Presidential race in the United States.  BOT Governor Setthaput pointed out that Vietnam has clearer trade policies and now has 3 times more FTAs than Thailand.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij

• BOT expects inequality to worsen when the Thai economy returns to pre-pandemic level in 2 years, given the prolonged outbreak of COVID-19 which continues to devastate domestic businesses.  Revenue from international tourists, which constitutes 11-12 percent of Thailand’s GDP, will remain subdued as the number of foreign visitors is projected at only 8-9 million in 2021.  The gradual recovery of the export sector – most notably in the petrochemical, electronics and automobile industries – is not trickling down to employment.  These 3 industries exports account for 49 percent of Thailand’s total exports, but employment accounts for just 4 percent of total jobs.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) expects Thai export to see a -7 percent contraction, up from its original projection of -8 to -10 percent contraction as shipments are poised to pick half in the second half of this year. In 2021, Thailand’s export is projected to rebound to a 5 percent growth as global economies recover.  Sources:  Bangkok Post  Thai Rath

• The Tourism and Sports Ministry has committed to pushing for 10 million domestic trips per month during high season, emboldened by the cabinet’s approval of financial aids for tourism operators.  The number of domestic trips may have risen from 90,000 in April to 8.5 million in September, but it has yet to cross the 10-million-trip threshold despite the government’s stimulus schemes.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Low-cost airlines praised the government’s move to reduce jet fuel tax as this will enable them to comply with the government’s request to keep airfares low, considering that jet fuel takes up 30 percent of total operation cost.  However, the airlines still demand that the government grant them the 24-billion-Baht soft loan, which they have requested months ago.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• The Parliament is set to consider the Parliament Committee’s report on the impacts of Thailand acceding to CPTPP today.  Source: Independent News Network

Australia

• The Ambassador’s Op-Ed on Australia and Thailand: partners in water and energy is now published on The Nation Thailand

Headlines summary as of 2 November 2020

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports three newly confirmed cases, a total of 3,787 cases. Out of the total number, 3,595 have been discharged from hospital (at 94.93%); 133 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at 59. The newly confirmed cases are returnees from Sweden (2) and Kenya (1). All have been in state quarantine since.
  • The national communicable disease committee is ready to propose CCSA the reduction of quarantine from 14 to 10 days, citing the low rate of infection locally.–ThaiPBS
  • The cabinet is at mobile cabinet meeting in Samui Island and Phuket to have a final look into the STVs scheme preparation.

Politics

• Yesterday, their Majesties the King and Queen visited the Grand Palace and changed the attire of the Emerald Buddha:
  • Channel 4 News made a historic interview with King Vajiralongkorn, asking the King on what he thinks about the protestors and would there be a room for compromise. H.M the King replied by saying “We love them all the same and that Thailand is a “land of compromise”.—Channel4
    1. A protest main figure Jutatip Sirikhan told a media in response to the King’s remarks that “I feel like they are just words. The word compromise is the opposite of what has actually happened … like harassment and the use of force and the use of the law.”—Asia Nikkei Review
  • Royalist ‘Avengers’ assembled in front of the grand palace to greet with the King:

• Varong Dejkitvigrom, the core leader of Thai Bhakkdhi (Loyalist Thai) was greeted by the King and the politician-turned-activist posted on his social media that the King asked him to “help make the truth out”.—Varong Dejkitvigrom
  • Varong addressed royalists on 31 December that there are three groups which are secretly supporting the student-led protestors, citing the students are not able to organise this by their own. The three groups include 1. Progressive Movement (the political movement succeeding the now-defunct Future Forward Party); 2. The Dubai Group (where the self-exiled former PM Thaksin is residing); 3. The Western Imperialist Group.–Matichon
• Suwit Thongprasert who led the People’s Democratic Reform Committee to the coup in 2014 and actor-turn-volunteer who announced earlier that if he finds anyone who is violating the monarchy, he will slab him or her were also greeted by the King.
• Apart from the former main figures of the PDRC, there were more than thousands of the royalist gathered to get a chance to meet the King.
• The Parliament is scheduled to set up a reconciliation committee comprising 7 parties. The Opposition parties held a meeting this morning and briefed the press that such a committee has no authority to perform any action. And that the first step of any reconciliation is for the PM to step down. The Opposition is yet to decide whether to join the committee.
• A vocal MP and Deputy Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) leader proposed that on the PAO’s executive election on 20 December, there could be a referendum to ask people whether the government will use the ultimate legal measures to ban any political protests which violates the public gathering laws and violating the security and economy of the country due to COVID-19 for two years.—Krungthep Turakij
• Over the weekend, there were a lot of developments from the student-led protestors:
  • Last night, student-led protest organisers communicated through their social media outlet negating the earlier demands by ‘All People End Game’ group that they are ready to compromise (demanding: 1. the 1997 Constitution back in; 2. Dissolution of the House and hold a new election; 3. The new constitution of the people for the people).—Thai Rath
  • On Saturday when a group of student protest claimed to hold a ‘big surprise’ as their Majesties the King and Queen will attend the graduation certificate handover ceremony, there were a large presence of security forces aiming to curb any defiance in the continuing activist stronghold Thammasat University. In an unprecedented move, anyone who is going to enter the university on the graduation day will have their ID Card checked and will be given different stickers based on their political activism engagement.–Prachatai, Reuters, AP
  • Three main protest figures Panupong ‘Mike’ (24), Parit ‘Penguin’ (22) and Panusaya ‘Rung’ (22) are being hospitalised at Rama 9 Hospital as the three was on bail last week. There have been reports of police are requesting an arrest warrant to bring them back behind bars.

• There is also a report that the mother of Parit was being fired for her son’s activism.—Naew Na
• Parit posted on his social media outlets that there is an ‘order’ to get rid of all the main figures of the student-led rallies as soon as possible. He pledged that he is willing to sacrifice anything including his life. He said that all three demands should be pressed concurrently.—Daily News
• On Thursday night, a group of protestors took Silom street holding a fashion show to mock the Princess Sirivannavari’s fashion show at Mandarin Oriental Hotel on the exact same time, targeting the Ministry of Commerce budget to support the princess’s brand event aboard.–AP, Reuters
• Over the weekend, there have been three polls trying to capture the people’s opinion on the current political situations:
  • On the latest extraordinary parliament session aiming at resolving the political conflicts. More than 40 percent of participants think that the session is nothing but a political ploy to defer changes; while 31.93% thinks that the session is the solution to the conflict. When the debate session is over more than 80 % thinks that the conflicts remain the same or even greater, while, 10.82% thinks that the conflicts dwindled.—Suan Dusit Poll
  • On how the latest wave of protest would end, around 20% thinks that the government would fulfil the protestors demands, 15.79% thinks that there will be a violence and the government will resign, 12.53% thinks that there will be violence followed by a coup.—Nida Poll
  • On foreign interference into Thai internal affairs, 80.3% thinks that there are foreign governments which are not the ‘great friend’ of Thailand are trying to intervene. Meanwhile, 86.2% of the participants believes that the ‘great friend’ to Thailand could help solidify the unity and patriotism in Thailand.—Super Poll
• Australian media SBS released a documentary of a protest leader Panusaya ‘Rung’ Sithijirawattanak who are at the central of monarchical reforms demands of the protestors with exclusive footages of her before being arrested.–SBS The video link on YouTube is geo-blocked in Thailand, but could alternatively viewed here.

Analysis/Opinion:

• A media reports on security forces’ information on four freelance teams operating behind the student-led rallies. All these teams are operating on mobile basis which is difficult for authority to track physically, not to mention virtually which has server located aboard:
  • The psychological team to analyse the behaviour of the potential participants to draft the message that would fit well with the psyche of each generation;
  • The explorer team to select protest sites which are convenient to travel;
  • The observation team to take a field study of the site a few hours before the real protest time and send information to the decision team;
  • The decision team to decide where the protest site will be.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic:

• The cabinet on 28 October approved of allocating a budget worth 111 million Baht on 4 projects to stimulate the economy, comprising 1) promotion of palm oil industry to become oleochemical industry; 2) capacity building to improve the services offered by the tourism sector and 3) for hotels to meet the Safety and Health Administration (SHA) certification in compliance with the New Normal tourism standard; and 4) promoting the scenic route and Sand Dunes as part of the ecological trail along Thailand’s Riviera (eastern coastal zone).  Source:  Thansettakij

• The Cabinet approved a guideline to reopen Thailand to foreign tourists and crews of foreign yachts under the Special Tourist Visa scheme.  The new guideline is published in The Royal Gazette and will be enforced until 30 September.  Source:  National News Bureau of Thailand, 31 October 2020

• Commerce Ministry reiterated that the United States’ suspension of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) for 231 Thai products, effective 30 December, will not impact Thailand’s overall export to the US.  The reason for the preferential trade benefit suspension is because Thailand lacks sufficient progress in providing the US with equitable market access for its pork products.  Only 147 (trade value worth 604 million USD) of the 231 products bereft of GSP suspension will be directly impacted since they will be subject to a higher tariff rate between 3 -4 percent.  Affected products include auto parts, plastic glasses frames, certain chemical products and rubber or plastic beddings.  Nonetheless, an academic notes that the suspension will largely affect small businesses that rely on the US market.  Commerce Ministry is currently working with the United States to help Thai operators.  Source:  Thansettakij  Bangkok Post Krungthep Turakij

• The election of the United States President on 3 November will affect Thailand’s trade and investment trends, notably through the President’s different stance on the US-China Trade War.  This will influence the number of businesses that will relocate to Thailand and Thai exports of product in the Chinese supply chain.  The new President will also determine whether or not the US will re-join the CPTPP.  Source:  Bangkok Post The Nation

• Commerce Ministry’s Department of Business Development will propose the removal of 3 services – telecommunications, finance and software development – from List 3 of the Foreign Business Act to facilitate foreign investments into Thailand.  For telecommunications, it will be applicable to Type 1 telecom service license for operators with no network of their own, such as operators from China that will rent Thailand’s telecomm network to service Chinese investors in Thailand.  For finance, the proposal applies to businesses that manage foreign currencies for businesses and their affiliates in the same group.  For software, the change is applicable to companies that develop Big Data, Data Analytics, Predictive Analysis, cybersecurity software and software related to manufacturing industries.  Once removed from the list, the businesses will not be required to seek permission from Foreign Business Commission to operate in Thailand, but can seek the permission directly from their supervisory bodies.  Sources:  Manager Online Bangkok Post The Nation

• Tax revenue in Q2 of FY2020 reported a 29 percent YoY decline due to the strict lockdown measures imposed to curb the spread of the pandemic.  According to  the Revenue Department, tax revenue from private consumption as well as personal and corporate income will not reach pre-pandemic level until a vaccine is successfully developed.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is hopeful the European market will recovery from the pandemic outbreak, with the first group of Scandinavians expected to arrive later this year.  TAT believes tourism activity will pick up by the last 2 months of the year, as the number of semi-commercial flights from long-haul destinations increase.  It is also a trial period to test the waters and TAT’s goal for next year is to increase the tourists’ length of stay.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• The Public-Private Partnership (PPP) committee chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Supattanapong has approved 2 projects worth nearly 19 billion Baht to develop and manage goods transport facilities to serve shipping and border trade businesses in Rayong and Chiang Rai provinces. The first project, valued at 16 billion Baht, concerns port management to facilitate loading and unloading of liquid products for factories in Rayong’s Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate inThe second project is the establishment of a goods transport centre, worth 2.8 billion baht, in Chiang Rai’s Chiang Khong district.  Source:  Bangkok Post