Headlines summary as of 29 September 2020

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports 14 newly confirmed cases, a total of 3,559 cases. Out of the total number, 3,370 have been discharged from hospital (at 94.69%); 130 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at 58. The newly confirmed cases are returnees from South Sudan (7), Turkey (1), Hong Kong (3) and India (3) and have been in state quarantine since.
  • Yesterday, the CCSA outlaid the additional six groups of foreigners to be allowed to enter Thailand from 1 October, in a bid to revitalise the economy. More information will be put here, should the order is gazetted.
  • The CCSA Facebook Page cited Interior Ministry order in extending the visa amnesty to be effective from 27 September until 31 October. But the order is not yet available publicly.—see post here
  • The cabinet has approved the extension of the State of Emergency for one more month in a bid to collaborate all administrations as suggested by the CCSA.

Politics

• A media report quotes a source in Pheu Thai Party saying that in the upcoming extraordinary party meeting on 1 October, it is highly likely that the party leader remains under Sompong Amornwivat’s reign, the secretary-general seat will be taken by Prasert Chantararuangthong. The media also reports that there has been a talk to set up a party ‘politburo’ to make decision on significant matters with Pojamarn, the divorced wife of former PM Thaksin lead the committee with other main figures who is now in the ‘CARE Group’ to join the executives.—Thai Post

Business:

Pesticide Banning

• The National Hazardous Substances Committee (NHSC) yesterday voted to keep its ban on the use of paraquat and chlorpyrifos in Thailand’s agricultural sector.  The vote followed a report published by the Foundation for Consumers that showed residues of paraquat was found in nam pu (fermented field crab paste).  Industry Minister Suriya said the NHSC would not revisit the decision in the future. The committee also ordered Agriculture Ministry to find alternatives to help farmers cope with the financial impact of the ban.  By June next year, the Ministry of Public Health plans to set a limit for paraquat and chlorpyrifos residues in food ingredients grown domestically, as well as imported raw materials, such as wheat and maize.  Source:  Bangkok Post  Bangkok Post

• The article summarises the timeline leading up to the National Hazardous Substances Committee’s decision to ban the use of paraquat and chrlorpyrifos that took effect on June 1.  It also explores the debates surrounding the ban, including the Maximum Residue Limits.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Others

• Finance Ministry expects the Thai economy to contract less in Q3, given some improvements in economic indicators in August compared to June and July, such as manufacturing, private consumption investment and merchandise export.  However, recovery largely depends on foreign tourist arrivals, which accounts for 11 percent of Thailand’s GDP.  In the first seven months of 2020, tourist arrivals and spending had declined 70 percent.  MoF forecasts the economy to contract 8.5 percent in 2020 and rebounds to 4-5 percent growth in 2021.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• The number of people living below poverty line (earning monthly income of 2,710 Baht per person) this year is likely to surge above 6.7 million or 9.85 percent of the population due to poor economy, the trade war, technological disruption and the pandemic, according to the National Economic Social Development Council (NESDC). The NESDC estimates the unemployment rate will stand at 2 percent of the total workforce this year, or 750,000 people.  According to IMD’s world competitiveness rankings for 2020, Thailand’s economic performance dropped six positions to 14th, while government efficiency fell three positions to 23^rd.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) 500 billion Baht soft loan program has floundered because the interest rate is incompatible with commercial banks’ financial costs.  Most banks do not want to offer the soft loans to SMEs at low interest rate of 2 percent despite having a low lending cost because their financial burdens is higher, at around 2.5 percent.  Banks would face a loss of 0.5 percent and they also do not want to shoulder higher bad debts.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Hoteliers in Koh Samui are gearing up to welcome an influx of tourists by preparing health volunteers and local state quarantine sites.  The island targets bringing in 200 tourists from a total of 1,200 tourists per month that are allowed to visit Thailand in the first stage of reopening. It also plans to propose a Koh Samui bubble model under the Special Tourist Visa scheme within this month.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Bloomberg

• Fiscal policy is back in focus as Thailand’s central bank runs out of conventional monetary policy space to spur the economy.  Yet the latest figures show the government has been slow to disburse its pandemic aid, with less than a third of the 1.9 trillion Baht stimulus aid spent (as of 9 September).  Reasons for the slow disbursement include difficulties in identifying the right grassroot projects for the 400 billion Baht aid; delays in cash transfers due to bureaucratic hurdles; the inaccessibility of the Bank of Thailand’s 500 billion Baht soft loans because of lenders’ reluctance to give out the new loans; and budget allocated for health initiatives is not yet used up since it is reserved for vaccines.  The government’s spending may gather speed in Q4, with the cabinet set to approve several measures.  A rebound next year depends on how fast the government can spend to make up for a slump in tourism and trade, the nation’s key growth drivers.  Source:  Bloomberg

Headlines summary as of 15 September 2020

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports five newly confirmed cases, a total of 3,480 cases. Out of the total number, 3,315 have been discharged from hospital (at 95.26 %); 107 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at 58. The newly confirmed cases are people returned from the Bahrain, Japan, Pakistan Saudi Arabia and Qatar and have been in state quarantine since.
• His Majesty the King has specially appointed Army Chief Apirat as Deputy Palace Secretary effective from 30 September 2020.—Wassana Nanuam

Politics

• After a document was circulated online instructing the First Army Region to prepare for deployment and anti-riot equipment, including bullet rounds, the Army spokesperson dismissed the document as said it is fake as there was no signature of senior army commanders.–Manager
• A source in the security apparatus believed that the upcoming 19 September protest is just a rehearsal as student-led protests are eyeing for the real major protest in October concurrently with the time the  House is going to debate the Charter amendment. The source said should the Senate turns down the Opposition proposal, the protestors will use this as a cause to press the government even further.—Krungthep Turakij
• The PM made a comment after the cycle of rumour is spreading about who will be the next Finance Minister after Mr Preedee resigned after taking the office for less than a month. The PM said that the public should be calm, the cabinet appointment is under the PM’s decision.—all media outlet
• The Minister to the PM Office briefed the press after meeting with the US Ambassador yesterday. The Minister said that the US affirmed that the US will not interfere in any internal political development of Thailand. The US merely want to see a peaceful Thailand.—Daily News

Business:

• An anonymous source at the Ministry of Finance disclosed that the 400 billion Baht budget the government allocated to rehabilitate the economy and society from COVID-19 is seeing slow disbursement.  To date, only 40 billion Baht was disbursed, which is not enough to stimulate the economy.  Furthermore, of the 88.45 billion Baht transferred from the government’s central budget this year to combat the pandemic, only a little over 20 billion Baht was disbursed, leaving the remaining 67 billion Baht untouched as the fiscal year 2020 draws to an end in October.  Source:  Prachachart Turakij

• Siam Commercial Bank revealed that business closures spiked 38.4 YoY percent from June to July, with the rate expected to increase by double-digit in the second half of 2020.  Heavily affected sectors were hotels and tourism-related businesses, textiles and automotive. 

• Unemployed workers in Q2 totalled 745,000, a near double-digit increase compared to last year, with hotels and restaurants showing the highest unemployment rate at 2.9 percent.  Most of the unemployed are graduates totalling 324,000 (98.2 percent of total Q2 unemployment).  Underemployment and furloughed workers are also anticipated to reach 3-5 million in the coming period, which result in further escalation of household debt.   Source:  Bangkok Post

• Udon Thani Industrial City company aims to spend 20 billion Baht in developing the first industrial estate in the Northeast on 2,170-rai land to serve Chinese and Japanese investors who are considering relocating their production base from China to ASEAN.  The company said its clients (70 percent are Chinese and 30 percent are Japanese) are keen to buy land in the industrial estate to escape the impact of US-China Trade War.  The land is anticipated to be ready for sale in 2021.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Ministry of Commerce will ban the import of electronic wastes, such as components of electronic or electronic appliances tainted with chemicals, effective from 15 September 2020.  The announcement was published in the Royal Gazette on 14 September.  Sources:  Prachachat Turakij  Royal Gazette Announcement

• Ministry of Commerce’s Department of Trade Negotiations visited Chiang Mai and Lampoon provinces to inspect Fresh Milk Chiang Mai company – a major milk producer in northern Thailand.  The company participated in the Department’s program that enhanced their capacity in producing and exporting Thai milk to countries that are Thailand’s FTA partners and in which milk export enjoys preferential tariff, specifically China and ASEAN markets.  Source:  Thansettakij

• Energy policymakers have insisted they will not scrap the Energy for All renewable power scheme, denying a report that it cannot be implemented because of a legal problem.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• The Association of Domestic Travel (ADT) suggests that the government targets at least 200 million domestic trips in 2021, up from the original target of 100 million trips, to aid the tourism sector.  Currently, 30 percent of tour operators have exited the market while 50 percent are temporarily closed.  ADT also suggests the government revises the domestic tourism stimulus package We Travel Together since there is still plenty of budget left.  This includes allowing users to buy tour programs from agents and receive 40 percent discount, with the subsidy capped at 8,000 Baht per head.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) reiterated the need for Thailand to let in foreign tourists to in the last quarter of this year rather than next year because else 2.5 million workers are at risk of losing their jobs.  ATTA will also propose an inbound tourism plan without a 14-day quarantine for short-haul markets, such as certain cities in China.  Tourism and Sports Ministry however insisted tourists will have to undergo a 14-day quarantine through a special tourist visa scheme and it hopes to bring back long-stay tourists by 1 October.  Source: Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 14 September 2020

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports two newly confirmed cases, a total of 3,475 cases. Out of the total number, 3,212 have been discharged from hospital (at 95.31%); 105 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at 58. The newly confirmed cases are Thais returned from the US and Qatar and have been in state quarantine since.
  • On Friday, Thai health authority confirmed another coronavirus infection had been detected in the country. This is the second locally-detectedcovid-19 patient after long absence. Authority is investigating on people who might be in contact with the Uzbek professional soccer player.—all media outlet

Politics

• There are two different polls asking people’s opinion on the most recent political developments:
  • Super Poll showed the survey result that 85 percent of the interviewees believed that the student protests have clandestine support from politicians and foreign countries. And that 92.2% of their samples indicated that the student protests will even worsen the struggling economy.—Super Poll
  • Nida Poll’s test result on whether Thai politics should still have the Senate, 38 against 31 percent thinks that the Senate should remain in politics for check & balance purposes. Regarding the Opposition Charter’s amendment draft to scrap Senator’s power in voting for the PM, more than 75 percent of the samples agreed with the proposal; while, around 22 percent disagreed.—Nida Poll
• Drums are beating for the upcoming major protest on 19 September:
  • As Thammasat University did not allow students protestors to use the venue, protest organisers vowed to use the site, regardless of the permit from the university.
  • Online sites are sharing an urgent order from Chonburi Governor sent to university rectors, calling for a meeting with security forces on the content of the upcoming protest which are deemed ‘inappropriate’. –Khao Sod
  • A vocal Senator gave an exclusive interview that letters had been sent by state-appointed provincial governors to university heads, summoning them to meetings ahead of protests planned on Sept. 19, citing the sensitive content that will be discussed on stage needs to be understood properly.–Reuters
• Media quotes a source in the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) that with Finance Minister’s fresh resignation, there are attempts by different groups to allocate the new cabinet line-up to be presented to Deputy PM and PPRP leader General Prawit for the PM consideration soon. By this equation:
  • Deputy PM Supattanapong will also take the vacant Finance portfolio.
  • The Energy portfolio will be given to Industry Minister Suriya.
  • Deputy Finance Minister Santi will take Suraiya’s Industry post.
  • Deputy Labour Minister Narumon will take Santi’s Deputy FM seat.
  • There is still one Deputy Minister slot left for the PPRP to allocate to their MPs.—Krunthep Turakij
• A source inside the coalition told a media that a cabinet reshuffle is likely unless a suitable candidate is found by the end of September. It is reported that PM has told his aides that he still prefers to fill the position with someone from outside politics and qualified for the position.—Thai Enquirer

Business:

Akara Mine

• Kingsgate Consolidated company announced that its subsidiary, Akara Resources, is granted permission by the Thai Government to sell high-value gold and silver ‘sludge’, which is secured at Chatree Gold Mine, to a Thai refinery to be processed into fine gold and silver. The sludge contains approximately 4,750 ounces of gold and 34,800 ounces of silver, and is valued at around AUD14 million.  Akara Resources has agreed terms with a Thai refinery to process the sludge pursuant to new legislation requiring gold mined in Thailand to be refined in Thailand.  The Thai Industry Ministry refused to give interviews on this matter. 
• The hashtag #Akara Gold Mine has been trending on twitter since late August following the news that the Thai government has allocated 111 million Baht to cover the costs incurred by the arbitration process between Thailand and Australia’s Kingsgate Consolidated company. Source:  BBC Thai  Kingsgate press release
• Civic groups in Phetchabun province have congregated to protest against Akara Resources company’s application for a special licence to explore gold and silver in two districts of the province.  The request was made through Richphoom Mining, a subsidiary of Akara Resources.  The Department of Primary Industry and Mines said that Richphoom Mining had recently re-submitted its application in a follow-up from its first application lodged 17 years ago.  The Department urged the public to voice their opinions in 30 days and insisted it had not approved of Richphoom Mining’s request.  Industry Ministry noted that the special license is for gold and silver exploration only, not for mining.
• Richphoom Mining also made the same license request in Chantaburi province, which similarly met strong opposition from local civic groups.  Source: Bangkok Post Prachachat Turakij

Others

• The domestic tourism subsidy campaign, We Travel Together, needs another major revamp despite generating 3 billion Baht for the local sector, as just 17 percent of 5.05 million registrants used the benefit over two months, according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).  Source:  Bangkok Post
• According to Thai Hotels Association (THA), some 1 million hotel staff were laid off while demand for labour in the hospitality sector shrank by 75 percent due to the pandemic.  Currently only around 50 percent of hotels have resumed operation, but with low occupancy rate wherein the minimum occupancy rate necessary for the hotels’ long-term survival is 30 percent.  THA urged the government to extend loans with 2 to 3-year repayment term and more accessible stimulus packages.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Thai businesses are optimistic about the recovery of the domestic steel industry if the government gives better protection to local manufacturers and pursues the megaprojects in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC).  However, the government must promote the use of local steel and iron in these projects.  The government must also protect local players from steel imports from China, since Chinese circumvention had started since 2010.  Thai players are also facing competition from Malaysia and Vietnam steel imports.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Industry Ministry is drafting plans for Thailand to speed up its transition towards Industry 4.0 since the pandemic has accelerated the use of digital technology.  These include building more digital infrastructure and drawing foreign investors to relocate their production bases to Thailand due to Covid-19 crisis.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Thailand is planning to ban the import of plastic waste in January 2021, however, the Pollution Control Department has objected the move, saying that the domestic supply of plastic waste is not enough to feed the kingdom’s industrial needs.  To this end, the PCD has asked for a 650,000 tonne plastic waste import quota for 2021, much to the dismay of 62 organizations that emerged to object the postponement.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Office of Trade Competition Commission is likely to rule on the CP-Tesco deal in October.  The vetting committee is consulting related and affected parties, such as representatives from CP Group, the Commerce Ministry and private companies such as small and medium-sized enterprises that could be hurt by the deal.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Australia

• Taste of Australia is on campaign at Big C Supercentres. HOM and Australian Minister-Counsellors attended the event.—Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 9 September 2020

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports a newly confirmed case, a total of 3,447 cases. Out of the total number, 3,286 have been discharged from hospital (at 95.33%); 103 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at 58. The newly confirmed case is Japanese national and has been in state quarantine since.

Politics

• The National Anti-Corruption Commission is pressing allegations of false asset declaration and forest encroachment against vocal Palang Pracharat Party MP Pareena Kraikup.—all media outlet
• After the weekly cabinet meeting, the PM addressed on the cost of referendum in the ‘new normal’ pandemic as the cabinet has approved a bill to pave the way for national referendum of charter rejig. The Election Commission has informed the cabinet that at least two referendum are required (one on charter amendment process, the other on the approving the new Constitution). The cost of the rejig would be as much as 10 billion THB.—all media outlet
• There are more developments regarding the Constitution Amendment:
  • Opposition Move Forward Party managed to gather 99 MPs to submit their amendment draft which includes the scrapping of Section 272 (in the 5 years interim period, the PM nomination needs to get more than half of the votes from both Houses). Under the current Constitution, one-fifth of the House MPs is required for any proposal, or at 98 MPs. Out of 99 MPs, 76 are from the Opposition; 16 from Coalition Democrat; one each from seven coalition parties. Interestingly, there are no support from the main Opposition Pheu Thai Party.–Prachachart
  • On the same day, Pheu Thai Party’s chief strategist outlined the party four main criteria for amending the military-drafted constitution, very similar to the proposal of the 99 MPs group. The four criteria includes scrapping the Senator’s authority in voting the PM; scrapping the NCPO junta orders (which grants NCPO full amnesty and superiority over the Constitution); scrapping the Senators’ authority in the countries reforms and in boycotting any legislation; and getting back the two voting card system following the 1997 Constitution. This criteria is different from the party’s resolution earlier that does not touch upon the Senate—Sudarat FB
  • Breaking: At today’s House session, more than 8 MPs (5 from Democrat; and 3 from other coalition parties) pulled out from the Move Forward Party’s proposal with reported pressure from big names in parties.—Thai Rath. This would mean the Move Forward Party proposal is rendered impossible to get to the House. However, the Secretary-general of the MFP said that the Pheu Thai’s yesterday proposal is almost the same as the MFP’s one and MFP MPs will vote for it. If Pheu Thai Party submits their proposal today, the proposal can be discussed and the first agenda could be voted within this House session.—The Standard
  • After the establishment of 60 senators under ‘The Independent’ group who are reportedly supports the charter amendment, but the amendment should be conducted in a section-by-section basis, not all charter by the Constitutional Drafting Assembly, the group seems to be in disarray. Yesterday, the group was scheduled to hold a meeting but ended up with two senators shown up. The Line Group of the 60 senators also witnessed a great exodus as more than half of the group members left the chatroom.—Naew Na
• There are developments on government mega-projects:
  • After the weekly cabinet meeting, the government spokesperson said that the PM has instructed related authorities to study ‘Land Bridge’ project connecting Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand. The project under the Transport Ministry includes the development of deep-sea ports in Ranong and Chumphon provinces and constructing motorways and train routes. The Transport Minister said that should the cargo ships from Southern Vietnam use the land bridge service, it could save two days and a half transportation time.—Krungthep Turakij
  • Thai logistics firm Best Group (recently a joint venture with Chinese developer)has submitted their Thai Canal development proposal to the House sub-committee to study Thai Canal, proposing to develop not only the water way but underground city urbanisation. The canal will be 1,000 metres wide and 32 meters deep. The CEO of the firm who is an advisor to the head of the sub-committee said that the development would be beneficial to Thai people.—Than Settakij

Business:

Akara Mine

• A group of 20 people dedicated to reforming the environment and gold submitted a letter to PM Prayut, demanding that the Industry Ministry revoke the license for Akara Resources Company to operate their mine.  They also demanded that Industry Minister Suriya be removed from his ministerial post as he did not enforce a law to protect gold since it is a commodity that affects the national security.  Source:  Khaosod

Cabinet’s Decisions, 8 September 2020

• Approved measures worth 23.48 billion Baht to create jobs for 260,000 graduates, with the government paying half of their salaries for 1 year, starting from October 2020.  Salaries are set at 15,000 Baht for university graduates; 11,500 Baht for those with advanced vocational certificates and 9,400 Baht for those with standard vocational certificates.  Eligible employers must be registered with the social security system and must not layoff more than 15 percent of their workforce throughout the duration of the program.
• Approved in principle measures to stimulate domestic consumption.  However, PM Prayut disclosed that the cabinet did not yet approve of the plan for the 3,000 Baht cash-handout to individual consumers.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Others

• Alcohol sales via electronic channel is prohibited in Thailand, as published in the Royal Gazette on 8 September.  The ban will take effect within 90 days of being announced in the Royal Gazette.  This includes direct selling, persuading, introducing the product or related services through electronic channels that enable sellers and consumers to complete a sale transaction without physically meeting.   The prohibition aims to prevent youth from having easy access to alcohol.  Source:  National News Bureau Thailand fb page, 9 September, Prachachat Turakij  The Nation
• Nissan Thailand is terminating the production and distribution of Sylphy, Teana and X-Trail models in Thailand, effective since 1 September 2020.  Nissan’s decision reflects its plan to adjust car manufacturing operation in Thailand in the wake of the pandemic.  Previously, Nissan reiterated that it remains confident in Thailand where it will be moving towards the production of new-generation cars, such as electric and hybrid cars.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The government is revamping the plan to open up Phuket to international tourists after the original proposals drew backlash from the local community.  The plan will be revised and submitted for the approval of the CCSA, CESA and the cabinet this month.  The Phuket Hotels Association said some 86,000 registered rooms in Phuket cannot break even or maintain positive cash flow if international tourists are not allowed to enter, which may result in 50,000 job losses.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) urged the government to curb the rising logistic costs.  The international logistics costs for Thai exporters have risen by some 30 percent from July because international shipping lines allocate more containers to goods from China and Vietnam where demands are high.  This means a smaller portion of containers is set aside for Thai goods.  TNSC also calls for the government to expedite the National Single Window System to allow complete submission of electronic documents by traders.  TNSC maintains its export forecast at 10 percent contraction this year.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Industrial Promotion Department teams up with the private sector and universities to provide the technologies and know-how for 20 SMEs to upgrade their manufacturing facilities into ‘smart factories’ in accordance with the Thailand 4.0 policies.  The participating SMEs are from the food and plastic sectors.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Outgoing Bank of Thailand Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said public debt restrictions should be eased beyond 60 percent to enable the government to spend more as monetary policy options dwindle with interest rates already at an all-time low.  Source:  Bangkok Post

ASEAN/World

• In the ASEAN Summit in Hanoi, it is expected that Beijing looks to use infrastructure financing and its vaccine candidates to sway ASEAN members to its side and strengthen its hold on the South China Sea.—Nikkei Asia Review

Analysis/opinion

• The power of the PM Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha is built on five pillars: the Military Establishment; the Civil Service, Palang Pracharat Party, the Senate and Independent Organizations.—This Rupt

Australia

• An academic paper by Sydney University scholar and an Australian alumni Thai academia on the recent Thai protests in New tactics, old grievances in Thai protests.

Headlines summary as of 8 September 2020

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports a newly confirmed case, a total of 3,446 cases. Out of the total number, 3,284 have been discharged from hospital (at 95.30%); 104 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at 58. The newly confirmed case is Indian national and has been in state quarantine since.
  • Over the long weekend,  Public Health authorities did progressive tests on 990 people who might have been in contact with the 37-years-old Thai DJ who broke the 100 day streak of no local transmission in Thailand. The test result is out and that 520 of which showed COVID negative result.—Channel 3

Politics

• A decision which raised eyebrows of many has been made yesterday as two prominent Thai activists were released after spending five days in prison for bail breaches. The police told a court there was no grounds to detain them, despite the continuing push to detain the two anti-government figures on Thursday for them to be in jail for the long weekend. The two called for major rallies on the 19 September at Thammasat University.—all media outlet
• On Saturday, around 300 high school students from 50 schools gathered in the 2^nd round of ‘Bad Student’ in front of the Education Ministry. The group repeated their three demands: stop harassing them, scrap outdated regulations and reform the educational system and delivered an ultimatum: the minister must resign, should he is not able to deliver.—AP
• Over the weekend, netizens shared photos of military gears moving towards Bangkok, stirring the speculations of another putsch. ‘#No more coup’ made it to the Top Trend of Twitter in Thailand.—Voice TV
  • Authorities dismissed the rumour.—Manager Online
• The junta handed-picked Senate has divided based on their perspectives regarding the Charter amendment into three groups: 1. The Indecisive (around 100) composes of former security officials and former members of the National Assembly. 2. The Supporter (around 20-30) supports the Coalition and Opposition drafts of charter rejig. And 3. The Independent (around 60) supports the amendment, but should be conducted in a section-by-section basis, not by the Constitutional Drafting Assembly. According to the Constitution, one-third of the Senates (more than 84 Senators) must vote In favour of the amendment.—Thai Post
• Former House Speaker and Rangsit University rector Arthit Urairat posted on his FB account saying that Thailand is now approaching towards political dead-ends. He proposed the former PM Anand Panyarachun to be interim PM and then giving 2 years for the Constitutional Drafting Assembly to draft a new constitution ensuring ethically meritocratic regime under constitutional monarchy. He later deleted his post. Historically, Mr Arthit as the House Speaker replaced the name of House nominated Air Chief Marshal Somboon Rahong with Anand Panyarachun for the King endorsement back in 1992.—Naew Na
• The government spokesperson dismissed the Amnesty International’s claim that the government has been suppressing the protestors. The Prayuth government has been following the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights: ICCPR. The similar statement was also published by the Royal Thai Police office.–Manager Online
• The Royal Gazette has published the King’s command to strip Police General Wirachai Songmetta from the Deputy Police Chief position after he was hanged by the PM earlier on in a scandal involving the expose of recorded conversation he had with the Police Chief. Pol Gen Wirachai was the most senior police on the line to become the next Police Chief.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic:

Akara Mine

• An anonymous source from the Parliament disclosed that the negotiation between Akara mine and the Thai government is proceeding well.  Both parties are expected to reach an agreement as early as January 2021, without having to wait for the verdict from the arbitration process in February 2021.  The Thai government insisted it has never ordered the termination of Akara mine; it simply did not renew the license for Akara mine to continue its operations to protect the safety and health of the local population.  Akara Mine could submit its license renewal under the new Mineral Act issued in 2017, which the government revised to ensure the environmental clauses are more stringent.  Akara Mine claimed the Thai government intentionally did not approve of its license renewal submission until the Mineral Act was revised in 2017; hence the ensuing arbitration process.  It is also noted that Kingsgate Company has shed its shares in Akara Resources company to 7.06 percent as of 30 October 2019 compared to 48.2 percent in 2013.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij

Pesticide Banning

• The Federation of Industry said the banning of paraquat and chopyrofos as well as the limit imposed on the use of glyphosate on 1 June has wide-ranging impacts and has cost the chemical industrial sector 2 trillion Baht.  FTI also slammed the government for its ‘double standard’ practice, in which farmers are prohibited from using the pesticides, while the industrial sector is allowed to import agricultural produce with paraquat residue level that does not exceed the CODEX standard until 1 June 2021.  Source:  Prachachat Turakij

Tourism

• Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) expects the recent long national holiday from 4-7 September to generate 8.8 billion Baht in revenue.  It plans to announce more national holidays to boost domestic tourism and spending.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• TAT will tweak enrolment process for its domestic stimulus campaign, We Travel Together, to include the elderly.  Only 800,000 room nights were redeemed from the 5 million room nights offered by the campaign since the campaign began on July 18.  Local tourists have contributed 2.57 billion Baht to the economy, of which 1.6 billion came directly from traveller expenditures and 978 million from government subsidies.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• TAT is delaying the reopening of Phuket after Thailand reported the first case of local COVID-19 transmission in more than 3 months.  The Phuket Model was originally scheduled to be piloted next month, where some 200 visitors from Australia and New Zealand will be allowed to visit the resort island.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Others

• Finance Ministry will propose to the cabinet the 45-billion-Baht cash handout to 15 million people by mid-September.  The funding will come from the 600 billion Baht budget allocated as aid those affected by the pandemic.  Of the 600-billion-Baht budget, the remaining amount is 180 billion Baht.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• The Finance Ministry and related government agencies are discussing a strategy to manage the economy in the next phase of the pandemic.  They are evaluating whether stimulus packages to boost tourism and consumer spending as well as state welfare for low-income earners are needed.  These include deliberations on renewing the tourism campaign We Travel Together that is expiring on 31 October, the Taste-Shop-Spend scheme and a new round of state welfare support.  Source:  Bangkok Post

• Inflation in August declined by 0.50 percent YoY, the smallest contraction in six months, boosted by fresh vegetable price due to the heavy rain and strong demand for pork from domestically and internationally.  Inflation in September is anticipated to pick up further as demand and supply improve.  For the first eight months of 2020, headline inflation was -1.03 percent and core inflation was 0.33 percent.  Source:  Bangkok Post

ASEAN/World

• Disney Mulan is on screen in Thailand amidst the ‘milk-tea alliance’ calls to boycott the movie, citing the main actress has posted in support of Hong Kong police against the pro-democracy protestors.

Opinion/ analysis

• The economic apparatus of the government is expediting its employment schemes to pamper the fresh graduates and those who might lose jobs due to the pandemic not to join the next major protest on 19 September. The Thai Industry Federation has estimated that now Thailand has 3.3 million unemployed and would be as high as 8 million at the end of this year. Should the government’s schemes not able to alleviate the economic impacts of the unemployed, security apparatus believe that this next protest will get too big for them to handle.—Krungthep Turakij
• The resignation of two economic tsars in the last couple of months showed that the government has lacked leadership in steering the professionals to work on economic issues against all political odds. The bigger implication is that the loss of two finance ministers mean the government might lose international credit in terms of investment, particularly the government flagship project of Eastern Economic Corridor might be in vain without Deputy PM Somkid. The government is moving towards its dead-end.—Thai Rath
• Against the recent rumours on the coup, there are four reasons why a military coup is not going to happen anytime soon; namely, army reshuffle, government strength, protests have not hit critical mass and economic spillover from the coup.—Thai Enquirer

Headlines summary as of 3 September 2020

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports two newly confirmed cases, a total of 3,427 cases. Out of the total number, 3,277 have been discharged from hospital (at 95.62%); 92 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at 58. The newly confirmed case are Thai returned from the US and Indonesia. This is the 101^st  consecutive day that there is no local transmission in Thailand.
• Major international media has reported on His Majesty the King order on 28 August to reinstate his royal consort (returning the military ranks and royal titles) to the immaculate Sineenat Wongvajirapakdi a year after she fell from grace by trying to elevate herself to “the same state as the queen”. Historically, Major-General Sineenat was the first person to given the royal consort title in almost a century.–Reuters, AP, BBC, The Guardian, South China Morning Post, Bloomberg, Asian Nikkei Review, Aljazeera, Channel News Asia
  • The implication of the royal order against the backdrop of the student protests’ minor demand in reforming the monarchy.—Sydney Morning Herald

Politics

• After much speculation of the political future, the Police Chief has announced in a gathering event that he is going to run for the Bangkok Governor after his retirement in the end of September. It is expected that the top law enforcer will run under the nomination of either Democrat Party or as independent. The capital governorship has been appointed by PM Prayut during military government using Article 44.—Inside Thailand
• After the resignation of the Finance Minister Mr. Predee Daochai amidst the economic turbulence, the PM has assured the people in his press briefing that the government will still be able to work because regulations are in place to govern the running of the country and that he is still taking the lead of the country’s economic team.—all media outlet
• There are more complementary theories on why the Minister resigned from his post, despite a more official reason citing health issues:
  • Intra-ministry conflict with his Deputy Minister on the nomination of the director-general of the Excise Department.—Neaw Na, Bangkok Post
  • Deputy PM and main ruling Palang Pracharat Party’s leader Gen Prawit would like to support Deputy Finance Minister Santi to replace Mr Predee and to nominate the former government spokesperson and current Deputy Labour Minister Narumon to replace Santi as Deputy Finance Minister.—Siam Rath
  • A big name in the Finance Ministry has asked all State-owned Banks’ board to submit the letter of resignation without stating any particular reason. The Finance Minister did not agree on this, leading to his resignation.—Than Settakij
  • Predee Daochai was forced to sign the extension of concession for BTS to operate its main Green Line without any price competition. The operator of a main mass transport system in Bangkok has got the green light from the Interior Ministry to extend the concession without any auction, but failed to obtain the freshly resigned Finance Minister’s blessing in the weekly cabinet meeting last Tuesday.–ThaiPBS
  • The attempt to get rid of Predee is to replace the portfolio with someone who is ‘easier to control’, orchestrated by ‘Vajiravudh clique’ with one of the PM’s inner circles. The close aide to the PM is reportedly cited the PM, asking the Finance Minister to appoint someone in PM favour for higher positions in the Ministry. The PM; however, was left in the dark on this matter. The close aide, since serving times in the Army with the PM, is now working for a businessperson aiming to steer the Finance Minister post into the business’s interest. The report said that the conflict between the main ruling Palang Pracharat and Predee is just a façade for a political scapegoat. Vendetta from Deputy PM Prawit’s gang is looming large.—Voice TV
• Minute coalition parties came out to support the PM to take the Finance portfolio and give the Defence Minister seat to Deputy PM and Palang Pracharat Party’s leader Prawit.—

Business:

Akara Gold Mine/Kingsgate

• Local communities in Chantaburi province will convene on 4 September to protest against attempts by entities to operate mines in the province.  The move came after provincial authorities notified the local community on 27 August that a land survey will be conducted for a gold mine operation as requested by Richphoom Mining company, a subsidiary of Akara Resources and Australia’s Kingsgate companies.  Local communities fear that the gold mine will damage the environment and affect their agricultural produce, citing Akara Gold Mine as an example.  Source:  Nation TV
• The Anti-Corruption Organization of Thailand debunked the rumour that the Thai government has lost the  arbitration process with Akara Gold Mine.  Source:  Matichon Weekly

Economic Stimulus Package

Others

• Centre for Economic Situation Administration (CESA) has approved a new 45 billion Baht stimulus package.  This will involve giving out 3,000 Baht of cash electronically to 15 million Thai adults, which will generate 90 billion Baht for the economy and boost growth by 0.25 percent.  The cash must be spent within 3 months to buy necessities from outlets that have registered to join the program.  Spending is capped at 100-250 Baht per head per day, with the government subsidising 50 percent of the spending.
• CESA did not approve of the Phuket travel bubble model.
• CESA also approved a 23-billion Baht employment package targeted at 260,000 new graduates, starting from 1 October 2020 to 30 September 2021.  The funding for this package will come from the 400-billion Baht loan borrowed by Finance Ministry.  The government will bear 50 percent of the graduates’ salaries, with the rest paid by their employers on the condition that employers do not lay off more than 15 percent of their current workforce. The pay is capped at 7,500 for university graduates.  The private sector queries the effectiveness of the scheme and prefers that the government not allow any lay-offs at all.  The government will also organise the Thailand Job Expo 2020 job fair at the end of September.  Source:  Thai PBS WorldBangkok PostBangkok Post
• Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has given assurances that the abrupt resignation of Finance Minister Predee Daochai will not affect investor confidence, saying he will do his best as head of the economic team to steer the economy forward.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Others

• Bloomberg notes that although Thailand marks 100 days without any local virus cases, it is a bittersweet milestone since the country now faces the dilemma of balancing public health with economic survival.  Thailand’s success relies on months-long closure of its borders – a strategy that came at great cost for one of the world’s most tourism-reliant economies.  Thailand’s other economic pillar, namely manufacturing, has also been battered by a global sump.  Economists said the government must now focus on reviving the economy, since that business exit and workforce cuts could curb Thailand’s long-term growth by 0.5 percent.  The government has in principle agreed to open to tourists, but has yet to release the details.  Source:  Bloomberg
• Reuters reported that a selloff in the baht, underperforming stocks and pressure on the bond market reflect growing concern from global investors over political instability and the growth outlook in Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy.  While Thailand is suffering its deepest economic contraction in two decades, it is also facing a student protest movement and disruption to its policy following the resignation its Finance Minister Predee.  Widening corporate credit spreads, as investors demand a greater premium for lending to Thai firms, is signalling creeping default risk.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Exporters are being urged to maximise the use of existing free trade agreements (FTAs) to boost export of medical supplies, particularly for syringes and medical needles in the wake of the pandemic outbreak.  Commerce Ministry said Thailand has high potential for syringe export as it ranks number 1 for syringe production in ASEAN and number 6 in the world.  In the first six months of 2020, Thailand exported medical needles and syringes worth USD 200 million, up 10.6 percent YoY.  Demand is anticipated to surge further once a vaccine is developed.  Source:  Bangkok Post

ASEAN/World

• The Thai authority’s aspiration to connect the Indian Ocean with the Thai Gulf (to South China Sea) would put the Thai Canal under the global and regional geopolitical confrontations. The Thai Canal would fit into Beijing’s ‘string of pearls’ to push for strategic dominance in the region and to deter Indian naval presence. The Canal might also jeopardise the territorial integrity of Thailand, separating the conflict-ridden most Southern provinces and the rest of the country. The report also said that should Bangkok turned hostile against Beijing, it is feasible that Beijing will support Southern insurgency to seek independence, which is ultimately against Bangkok’s interest.—Foreign Policy

Australia The Embassy organised-Old Masters art exhibition is on display at Bangkok Art and Culture Centre from today until 13 September on 5^th floor, curved wall.—Siam Rath, Krungthep Turakij