Headlines summary as of 24 August 2020

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports two newly confirmed cases, a total of 3,397 cases. Out of the total number, 3,222 have been discharged from hospital (at 94.85%); 117 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at 58. The newly confirmed cases are Thais returned from India and Qatar. This is the 91st consecutive day that there is no local transmission in Thailand.

Politics:

• Submarine became a heated debate as last week the House’s budget scrutiny sub-panel voted to approve the Royal Thai Navy’s procurement for 2 Chinese-made submarines.
  • Thai Royal Navy will hold its press conference this afternoon to lay out its rationale for the procurement.
  • On Sunday, Pheu Thai MPs claimed it now has evidence to prove that the Thai-Chinese government-to-government procurement contract is invalid, since navy chief who signed on behalf of Thailand had no authority to represent the government and the Chinese company which signed the contract was also not representing the Chinese government either.—all media outlet
• The issue of student protests are still on high agenda.
  • Higher Education Minister said on Sunday that about 60 students, who are the presidents of student councils at various universities, will be the first to be invited to present their opinions on setting a roadmap for the future of Thailand.—ThaiPBSWorld
  • An MP from Democrat Party as the deputy head of special committee to listen to student’s demands said that during a discussion on a setup of online poll to survey student’s opinion, deputy permanent secretary of the Education Ministry said they has discussed this with Ministry’s executives and that the ministry has long known what the result of the poll will be. The senior official also said that we all knew in our guts that the students are not as naïve as they portray themselves to be.—Thai Post
  • Last Friday, royally established Rajini School issued a statement preventing students from expressing political opinions.  This morning some student representatives with signature of hundreds of alumni handed over an open letter requesting the school to be more politically neutral, citing that a group of alumni used to be part of the People’s Democratic Reform Committee. –Thai Rath
  • An opinion survey by the Suan Dusit Rajabhat University, or Suan Dusit Poll showed that more than half of the samples (almost 200,000) said the Free People Movement are making demands as allowed in democracy and that more than 60 percent of the samples agree with the protestors’ demand on amending the Constitution.—Suan Dusit Poll
• The movement to ban sponsors of hard-line pro-government Nation TV is developing as some brands have announced that they withdraw from the sponsorship.—Channel 3

Business:

• Thailand’s export in July 2020 declined by 11.37 percent to total 18.8 billion USD, while import declined by 26.4 percent to 15.5 billion USD.  Commerce Ministry enthused that Thailand’s export is showing signs of recovery after nosediving in June.  Exports that performed well in July are food products, work from home items/home electrical appliances, COVID-19 related products and hedge assets, ie: gold.  Overall, export in the first seven months of 2020 contracted by 7.72 percent.  Source:  Ministry of Commerce Press Release
• Bank of Thailand with financial institutions and banks launched DR BIZ Program, a mechanism to help businesses classified in the NPL segment with multiple-creditors restructure their debts.  A lead creditor will be assigned to coordinate with other creditors through common debt work out practice as mutually agreed by all creditors.  To assist the debtors, creditors could employ instruments such as extending repayment period, lower instalment payment and adjusting repayment plan.  In its first phase, the program starts from 1 September.  Eligible debtors are the businesses impacted by COVID-19 with credit lines across all financial institutions in the range of 50 – 500 million Baht.  Sources:  Bank of Thailand press release Bangkok Post
• Bank of Thailand disclosed that Thailand’s commercial banks are financially sound.  The central bank asked financial institutions to run stress tests, with the results showing that lenders possess sufficient capital to cope with a ‘severe crisis’.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Tourism and Sports Ministry’s Phuket Model will be the first to trial the new Safe and Sealed plan, whereby alternative state quarantine (ASQ) hotels can jointly provide a restricted 1-kilometre space for international arrivals over two weeks.  Thailand has to risk reopening borders to tourists with this pilot project in October, or else its economy may not recover.  If the first international arrivals to Phuket complete their trips without local transmissions, Thailand will be ready to seize the long-stay market in the upcoming high season.  Source: Bangkok Post
• In an exclusive interview with the Bangkok Post, Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Supattanapong said the government’s priority is to assist redundant workers and rehabilitate the tourism sector. The goal of the Centre for Economic Situation Administration (CESA) is to create 1 million jobs, partly to be funded by the 400 billion Baht economic and social rehabilitation budget and the 3.3 trillion Baht budget set for FY21.  In the medium and long terms, the government will focus on introducing measures to attract investments, particularly the S-curve industries to be in line with the post COVID-19 environment.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Critics query if the CESA is a front for business lobbyist to influence government policies rather than an entity dedicated to public interest.  Although the economy is ravaged more by COVID-19 than the student-led protests, domestic political uncertainty has undeniably rattled investor sentiment in the capital market.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• State-owned Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation has approved 57 billion Baht worth of loan guarantees for SMEs qualified under the Bank of Thailand’s soft loan scheme.  However, the SMEs have yet to receive the soft loans because of the concerns financial institutions have with non-performing loans.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Chinese investors are accelerating their investments in aluminium smelting factories in Thailand as China can no longer import aluminium from the US due to the trade war.  China envisages Thailand as a new location for smelting aluminium, which will be re-exported back to China as well as sold to the domestic market.  Communities in Chonburi province are complaining that these Chinese factories have created pollution, while the private sector is concerned over the prospect of Chinese dumping their products into the Thai market.  Source:  Prachachat Turakij
• Thailand’s Durian export in the first six months of 2020 grew by 72.6 percent, valued at 1.41 billion USD.  This is partly due to the strong demand from China, where export rose by 140 percent, valued at 1 billion USD.  Thailand is also a monopoly supplier of Durian to China, which leaves little room for other countries to compete.  Source:  Trade Policy and Strategy Office press release
• Industry Ministry believes Thailand will maintain its status as a major car production base in the post pandemic period, with the Japanese carmaker Nissan relocating production from Indonesia.  This results in Thailand becoming Nissan’s sole production base in Southeast Asia, where it eyes manufacturing both electric and hybrid cars.   Source: Bangkok Post

Opinion:

• Bhumjaithai party is playing a double game, as there is a rumour that in the next cabinet reshuffle the PM would like to get the Transport portfolio, currently under Bhumjaithai’s,  back to be under PM’s direct quota. The move of the second largest coalition party to call for Charter amendment is to threaten the PM that the 61 seats party would leave the coalition.—Nation Weekend
• The next mass protest that Thammat and Protest group is calling on 19 September will be a significant juncture for the next political movements to come. Historically, the conflict or coup usually happen in September or October as the bureaucratic retirement tenure, including the military is until 30 September.—MCOTคุยรอบทิศ

Australia:

• Where are Prayut’s children? Became heated hashtag on Twitter as some anti-governments are questioning the money Prayut’s children are using.  Reference to Australia has been made as it is reported that the PM’s twin daughters are studying in Australia.

Headlines summary as of 21 August 2020

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports a newly confirmed case, a total of 3,390 cases. Out of the total number, 3,219 have been discharged from hospital (at 94.96%); 113 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at 58. The newly confirmed cases are Thais returned from Singapore. This is the 88th consecutive day that there is no local transmission in Thailand.
  • Yesterday, the Department of Disease Control (DDC) held an evening press briefing on the earlier reports of potential resurgence of local COVID-19 transmission. DDC said the lady who has been tested positive also found immunity to COVID-19, meaning that epidemiologically she is not able to spread the disease.
  • The CCSA has decided following the National Security Council’s advice to extend the Emergency Decree for one more month until 30 September for the fifth time, citing the needs for administrative coordination.

Politics:

• The political temperature on the protestor arrests has cooled down a bit:
  • Yesterday, all nine activists, musicians and student protest speakers who were arrested since Wednesday night until Thursday morning have been bailed out by MPs and academia, on the condition that the arrested does not repeat the same offences.—all media outlet
  • The police chief said that police officers had no choice but to enforce the law and prosecute as protest leaders have broken the law. Police chief said failure to act against the leaders would result in police being charged with dereliction of duty.—Bangkok Post
• Student protests are still developing their momentum:
  • Yesterday, there were protests in the North eastern provinces of Nakhon Ratchasrima (around 1,000) and Khon Kaen, reiterating the 3 demands; 2 stances; and a dream.–Manager 
  • This evening, a student protest group is calling for the like-minded to flag three fingers salute when standing to respect the national anthem at 6.00pm on every mass transport stations.
  • On countering the student movements, a leader of Provincial Administrative Organization in the North eastern province of Sakhon Nakorn held a session informing the students on the significance of the monarchy who has been with Thai history for 700 years.–Matichon
  • Labour unions of infrastructure state enterprises gathered at the Democracy Monument calling for the protection of monarchy.–Matichon
• The leader of Progressive Movement Thanathorn, as an advisor to the House Committee to review the budget bill, has pointed out the continual increase of budget earmarked for the monarchy and urging the budget to be cut, citing the economic hardship due to COVID-19.–ThaiPost, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit
• Piyabutr, the secretary-general of the Progressive Movement, spoke at the Parliament voicing his idea on the charter revision. He said that the condition not to touch upon the Article 1 and 2 could lead to constitutional crisis as it is unknown whether there will be anything related to the articles needs amendment. He also commented that it is also untrue that Article 2 has never been amended. He cited the PM who said the King has asked the government and the National Assembly to amend Article 2, according to the King’s wishes, despite the constitution passing through the referendum.—The Reporters
• The new line-up for the military reshuffle is finalised with a consensus, falling into Army chief’s wishes.
  • It is reported that the PM and Defence Minister has called a meeting for today with leaders of the armed forces, the permanent secretary for defence and his deputy to finalise the selection of new military chiefs.—Bangkok Post
  • The military reshuffle falls into General Apirat who also heads the special task force of Royal Guard 904’s wishes:
    • Gen Chalermpol Srisawasdi, received the special training to be the Royal Guard is likely to be the new Supreme Commander.
    • Gen Narongphan Jitkaewtae, also the Royal Guard 904 is expected to take General Apirat’s reign as the Army Chief.
    • However, deputy army chief Gen Natthapon Nakpanich failed the bid to become the next Army chief, despite the PM backing. Gen Natthapon, under Eastern Tiger military clique (which Gen Prayut, DPM Prawit and Interior Minister Gen Anupong is from) is expected to be the new secretary-general of the National Security Council. The ‘signal’ on 12 August has indicated that the Royal Guard 904 should remain in the Army top brass.
    • The monopolisation of Army top brasses to be solely under the Royal Guard 904 section might stir intra-Army conflict.—Matichon Weekly21-27 August 2020

Business

• The government denies it is on the brink of bankruptcy following the cabinet’s recent approval for Finance Ministry (MoF) to borrow an additional 214 billion Baht to compensate for an anticipated budget deficit.  MoF forecasts that state revenue collection could fall below the target by 9 percent, or 300 billion Baht.  The national budget passed for FY 2020 totals 3.2 trillion Baht.
• To finance this budget deficit, MoF is issuing 50 billion Baht in savings bonds for sale to the public from next week.  The bonds will be offered in two tranches: 5 billion Baht in 4-year bonds (1.7 percent coupon), and 45 billion of 7-year bonds (2.22 percent coupon), both of which will be on sale from 25 August to 11 Sept. 
• MoF will sign a contract to borrow 48 billion Baht (USD1.5 billion) from the Asian Development Bank in late August or early September, which constitutes part of the 1 trillion Baht loan decree.  Sources:  The Nation Bangkok Post Thansettakij
• Commerce Ministry celebrated its 100^th anniversary, with Commerce Minister Jurin vowing to develop local economies through e-commerce.  It will also focus on organising interprovincial trade fairs, for which it received a budget of 100 million Baht for FY21.  MoC will also accelerate trade negotiations with Europe, Britain and other potential partners.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• New Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Supattanapong aims to revive the economy using energy projects, with the Energy for All scheme taking priority.  He instructed state energy agencies to draw up job creation plans, as well as seek ways to ease energy costs and consider measures to peg the cost of LPG and NGV for vehicles in the next 2 weeks.  Sources:  The Nation Bangkok Post
• Domestic car sales shrank for the 14th month in July, dropping 24.8 percent YoY to 59,335 vehicles due to weakened demand.  From January to July 2020, car manufacturing decreased by 43.7 percent YoY to 695,468 units.  Over the same period, car exports dropped by 37.6 percent YoY to 400,114 units. Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) forecasts that the Thai car industry may take 5 years to recover to pre-pandemic levels.  It estimates that in year 2020, car production in Thailand would total 1.3-1.4 million units.  Source:  Bangkok Post  Bangkok Post Thansettakij
• The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) is in talks with private and state-owned companies to devise ways to create jobs, given that it predicted that the pandemic would cost 7-8 million workers to lose their jobs this year.  FTI also reported that the Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index rose in July for the third straight month, to 82.5 points from 80 in June.  Source: Bangkok Post
• The Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (Fetco) will propose to the Finance Ministry the launch of a fund for government to raise public funds for infrastructure projects without taking on more debts.  Another fund would build new fundraising channels for SMEs that are too small to be listed in the SET stock market.  Asia Plus Securities enthuses that investors are more concerned about political instability than a second-wave of pandemic outbreak.   Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Government Pharmaceutical Organization (GPO) has unveiled a Thai-made PPE suit that can be washed and reused 50 times, manufactured from recycled plastic bottle materials.  Demand for PPE suits was as high as 35,000 suits per day at the height of the pandemic outbreak.  The GPO has since then worked with local organisations to ensure the PPE suits could be manufactured domestically to ensure sufficient supply.  Source:  National News Bureau of Thailand fb page, 20 August

Australia

• China’s Ministry of Commerce said it is launching an anti-dumping investigation into some wines imported from Australia.  Australia had the largest share of China’s imported wine market at 37 percent.  Source:  Khaosod newspaper
• Australia plans to allow foreign students to return to study in South Australia, starting from September.  A group of 300 students mostly from China, Hong Kong, Jpan and Singapore will travel from Singapore to Adelaide at the start of September, where they will under a 14-day quarantine with all expenses covered by the universities.  Source:  Nation TV
• Australian flag carrier Qantas Airways posted an almost USD 2 billion annual loss after a ‘near-total-collapse’ in demand due to the coronavirus pandemic.  Source:  Bangkok Post newspaper, 21 August 2020

Opinion:

• Media reported quoting 11 diplomatic officials from 10 countries including members of the European Union, NATO members and Oceania countries that the Foreign Minister and the recently appointed Deputy PM Don have been refusing to meet with diplomats from most western countries outside of courtesy calls. The diplomats said Thai top diplomat has preferred to hold discussions with diplomats from Russia, China, North Korea and other countries more sympathetic to the Thai political situation.—Thai Enquirer
• With Cold War political orders being outdated, the younger generation is filling in the gap. The conservative-royalist has failed to address is “how much of a mess the Prayut-led regime has made of Thailand’s economy, society and politics. Thailand’s economy faces hard times for years to come, its society is as polarised and divided as ever, and its politics are rigged and manipulated to ensure the same incumbent regime stays in power for years on end.”—Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 20 August 2020

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports seven newly confirmed cases, a total of 3,389 cases. Out of the total number, 3,218 have been discharged from hospital (at 94.95%); 113 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at 58. The newly confirmed cases are Thais returned from UAE (3), Hong Kong (1), Singapore (2) and Egypt(1). This is the 87th consecutive day that there is no local transmission in Thailand.
  • Yesterday, the Department of Disease Control (DDC) held an evening press briefing on the earlier reports that there is a second wave of COVID-19 transmission. The director-general of DDC said that there are two people who have been detected with COVID antibodies as they are testing for the disease before returning back to their work aboard. The DDC has affirmed the people that the risk of the two being able to spread the disease is epidemiologically very low. The blood test of the first lady found COVID-19 immune, DDC said she cannot spread the disease. The test result of the second lady is pending. Both are Thais returned from UAE and were in state quarantine for 14 days with ‘inconclusive’ COVID lab test result.

Politics

• Tonight FCCT will hold a talk on Student-led protests and Thai politics: Where is it all heading? From 7.00-10.00pm. The panellists are Free People Movement leader, academia, and seasoned journalists.
• Foreign Minister Don told a foreign media trying to ask for PM comment on the protestors calling PM dictator by saying “Hey you, go and do something more useful for yourself”. The top diplomat also said  international organisations voicing concerns over the protests would rather not to speak up on this, as it is Thai internal affairs. He said Thailand has been enjoying peace, there is no need for other countries to stir the conflicts.—Thai Post
• Last night until this morning witness a new wave of arrests are back on as police has arrested four protest leaders and an anti-authoritarian rapper who sang My Country Has. One of the leaders is a key member of the Assembly of the Poor. The organisation issued a statement against the arrest.—all media outlet Reuters
• Yesterday, there were two main sites of anti-government protests:
  • In front of the Education Ministry, hundreds of high school students protested against  the Minister who took part in large-scale street protests that helped trigger the army coup that brought Prayuth to power. Some student protesters blew whistles as he spoke, a disruptive tactic his own movement had used in 2014.–AP
  • Around 2,500 university students at King Mongkut’s Institute demanded for the three propositions; 2 standpoints, and one dream.—all media outlet
  • ‘Thammasat and Protest’ Group announced that they will organise a new protest on 19 September at politically historical Tha Phrachan campus. The group’s last protest on 10 August introduced 10 propositions for monarchical reforms at Rangsit campus. On 19 September 2006, Thailand witnessed the coup d’état from National Council for Peace and Order which scrapped 1997 Constitution.
• Royalist former Democrat MP Warong Dejkitwikrom held a press conference with 200 people launching a group to counter student protestors and claim to protect the monarchy.–Reuters
• There have been calls by political parties to amend the constitution as followed:

Party	Parliament Seats	Article to be amended	Reservation(s)	On the Senate	Roadmap
Opposition parties (excluding Move Forward)	156	256	Article 1 and 2	N/A	Constitution Drafting Assembly—Constitution–Dissolution of Parliament–Election
Move Forward	54	256, 269-272	All constitution should be open for revision	Must not remain	N/A
Bhumjaithai	61	256	Article 1 and 2	N/A	Constitution Drafting Assembly—Constitution–Dissolution of Parliament–Election
Democrat	52	256	Article 1 and 2	Should remain (with power limitation)	N/A
Chartthai Pattana	12	256	Article 1 and 2	Must remain	N/A

(Article 256: on the means to amend the constitution; Article 269-272: on the roles and powers of the Senate; and For a motion to be passed to the House for debate, it must have 98 votes)

Business

• Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Supattanapong said the Centre for Economic Situation Administration (CESA) has established 2 committees to oversee the country’s economic recovery on national and provincial levels.  The national committee is split into 3 sub-committees, tasked to 1) tackle urgent economic problems 2) address medium-and long term economic measures; and 3) gather public opinions; of which the latter will be overseen by the Prime Minister’s adviser Pailin Chuchotthaworn.  As for the provincial committee, it will see Ministers working with provincial Governors in solving social, economic and environmental problems under a 3 trillion Baht budget, which has yet to be approved by the Parliament.  Source:  Nation TV
• CESA will launch more stimulus measures to revive the economy, among them initiatives to support tourism and create jobs, which will be presented to the cabinet on 25 August.  The funding will come from the 400 billion Baht budget set aside for economic and social rehabilitation projects.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• CESA also proposes increasing the privileges for We Travel Together scheme.  The 40 percent hotel subsidy (ceiling remains 3,000 Baht per night) will be extended to cover 10 nights of stays from the current 5 nights.  Air ticket subsidy will be raised from 1,000 to 2,000 Baht per person.  Private companies will also be eligible to use the scheme for business purposes.  CESA aims for the scheme to end on October 31 since the goal is to spur tourism expenditure during the low season, however, the Thai Hotel Association vouched for the deadline to be extended until March next year to cover the high season.  This is in response to the low uptake of the We Travel Together scheme launched since July, in which only 660,000 of the available 5 million subsidised nights have been booked.   Source:  Bangkok Post   The Nation

Others

• Government Pharmaceutical Organization (GPO) will sell 3.5 million sanitary face masks to the public at 8 branches of the GPO pharmacy in Bangkok and the vicinity from August 19.  The single-use sanitary face masks will be sold at 125 Baht per box of 50 pieces.  The GPO also affirms it is equipped to procure, manufacture and distribute PPE suits, N95 face masks, sanitary face masks, sanitising alcohol and pharmaceutical products to support the public health system should there be a second wave of pandemic outbreak.  Sources:  Krungthep Turakij National News Bureau Thailand fb page, 19 August
• Fitch revised downward its forecast for Thailand’s 2020 real GDP growth to be -6.6 percent before rebounding to 3.7 percent growth in 2021.  This is because recovery in tourism looks set to be delayed, which will have a ripple effect and will weigh down on domestic confidence and activities.  Thailand faces challenges in attracting foreign investments because of weak domestic demand.  Without the government’s support to curb rising household debt, the Thai economy will only recover to the same extent as the export sector.  Source: Bangkok Post
• State-owned Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation (TCG) saw the ratio of loan guarantees for SMEs rise by 167 percent and overall loan guarantee approvals by 223 percent YoY during the first seven months of 2020.  The figure for new customers receiving loans was 98,221, up 222 percent YoY.  TCG is preparing a 150-billion-Baht loan guarantee programme called portfolio guarantee scheme 9 (PSG9) for SMEs, where the credit line will allow financial institutions to offer loans to 100,000 borrowers with a combined loan value of 100 billion Baht.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Some 13 municipalities and 6 universities are joining the smart city charter under Thailand’s 20-year national strategy, with the blueprint created by the National Charter of Thailand that is in turn funded by Thailand Science Research and Innovation.  The project is underway in 6 municipalities, comprising Chiang Mai, Nakhon Sawan, Udon City, Khon Kaen, Rayong City and Patong City.  The smart city charter pilots ‘experimental zones’ covering 0.25 square km in local communities, in which the priority is to set up physical infrastructure to win public approval before making way for digital technology.  Source:  Bangkok Post

ASEAN/World

• Mali Army staged a coup to oust the president aiming to restore the country’s stability.—all media outlet

Headlines summary as of 19 August 2020

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports a newly confirmed case, a total of 3,382 cases. Out of the total number, 3,199 have been discharged from hospital (at 94.59%); 125 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at 58. The newly confirmed cases are Thais returned from India. This is the 86th consecutive day that there is no local transmission in Thailand.
  • The Deputy Army Chief said that the Committee on COVID-19 restrictions easing has reached a decision to extend the Emergency Decree for one more month, citing the administrative collaboration. The decision will need to get an approval from the CCSA chaired by the PM.

Politics

• This afternoon, the Digital Economy Ministry will hold a press briefing after filing a legal case against the admin of ‘Royalist Marketplace’ Facebook group, including those who posted illicit contents. The group which has recently got a million member mostly discuss ‘critical’ issues, related to the monarchy.—MDES Press Group
• The high-school protests are still on high agenda as:
  • This afternoon ‘Bad Student’ movement has called for the like-minded students to protest in front of the Education Ministry. The students are mobilising against the Minister who was the former leader of People’s Democratic Reform Committee. The Minister said he will not be at the Ministry as he has other matters to attend to first.—Thai Post
  • Media drew on the past actions of the Education Minister who whistled against the ex-wife of ousted and self-exiled PM Thaksin. The protest organiser said, they are following the path of the minister, wishing that one day they would be successful like the minister.—Khao Sod
  • The Ministry has reduced the tension by issuing an order for every schools to allow students to express their political opinions freely.—all media outlet
  • Deputy Army Chief gave an interview fearing that student protestors might not have adequate information. The general has asked for cooperation from teachers and families to make the students to have the correct understanding. —Manager
• The police said they would seek the arrest warrant from the court for six leaders of student protestors in Thammasat University for sedition.—all media outlet
• Senator Somchai Sawangkarn said that the Free People Movement has been taken over by the political party. He said that he knew there were more than 5,000 people recruited by politicians from a political party to join the Free People Movement protest on Sunday.–Manager
• The issue of charter revision became heated as the Move Forward Party withdrew from parliament’s constitutional reform committee. The proposal of the committee stated that it would not touch upon the Article 1 and 2 of the Constitution on form of state and monarchy, respectively. The party said that it would like to leave as much room for discussion as possible. Vocal MP Rangsiman told the media that although no one was trying to change Thailand to become a republic, the demand of student protesters that conservative institutions must be reformed should be addressed.—Thai Enquirer
• Senior advisors of the ruling Bhumjaithai and Democrat Parties said that the government has considered the idea of dissolving the house and letting an interim government handle constitutional change before fresh elections, in a bid to avoid bloody conflict. The advisors told that the government thinks it can keep on to power by holding forums and engaging in dialogue with the students.—Thai Enquirer
• The PM told after the weekly cabinet meeting that the government is planning to hold the Provincial Administrative Organizations within this year. There is no clear policy/ direction on when other local elections will be held.—Daily News

Business

• The pandemic has delayed investments in the EEC by 6-7 months, but is expected to pick up after Q2.  Next week, the EEC Office (EECO) will organize an online meeting with 50 CEOs of Chinese companies to discuss investment plans.  The EECO is also focused on attracting investments in 5G technology, logistics, smart city and medical hub, for which it has reached out to US, Chinese and British investors.  Nevertheless, EECO remains concerned about the lack of workforce with the skills to propel the S-Curve industries and said about 400,000 – 500,000 workforce must be reskilled.  Source:  Prachachat Turakij

Cabinet’s Decisions, 18 August 2020

• Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation (TCG) will provide a 57-billion-Baht guarantee loans taken by SMEs under the Bank of Thailand’s soft loans scheme. It will cover the loan terms of 8 years.
• Government Savings Bank (GSB) will expand coverage of its existing 10-billion Baht COVID-19 lending scheme to SMEs, self-employed and families and individuals with regular income.  An additional 5 billion Baht is allocated as loans specifically for operators in tourism-related industries.
• GSB will expand the coverage of the 80-billion-Baht lending scheme for SMEs and will offer 10 billion Baht in loans via non-bank financial companies to support SMEs in tourism and other sectors.  GSB will further offer 3 billion Baht in loans directly to SMEs.
• Small and Medium Enterprise Development Bank of Thailand will expand its 10 billion-Baht loan for tourism operators to cover other types of businesses, including individuals and corporate entities. 
• Loan guarantee scheme under the TCG loan package will be extended to support micro entrepreneurs with funding of 15 billion Baht. Each will get no more than 200,000 Baht.
• Approved a 214-billion-baht borrowing plan for a revenue shortfall in the current fiscal year, which is the result of the coronavirus pandemic.  The new debt will total 1.66 trillion Baht, up from 1.5 trillion Baht.  Under Finance Ministry’s new borrowing plan, public debt to GDP ratio will go up to 51.64 percent, which is still below the 60 percent ceiling.
• Approved price guarantee programmes for corn, tapioca and rubber, with spending totalling 14.1 billion Baht.  Sources:  The Nation Bangkok Post  Bangkok Post  Bangkok Post  Thansettakij

Others

• The Economic Situation Administration Centre will convene its first meeting today to discuss plans to stimulate consumption, public and private investment as well as curb unemployment.  Source: Bangkok Post
• The number of unemployed youth in Thailand will double this year, while 220 million young workers in Asia will be vulnerable to labour market disruption caused by Covid-19, according to the Asian Development Bank’s report entitled Tackling the COVID-19 youth employment crisis in Asia and the Pacific.  Source:  The Nation
• Thai Hotels Association urged the government to include expatriates in the second phase of tourism stimulus following the domestic market’s slow response to the first phase of the package.  THA will also seek soft loans and tourism funds to improve the liquidity of hotels until Thailand can welcome international tourists.  Phuket is also gearing up as the hub of alternative state quarantine.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Treasury Department considers reducing rental fees for 30-50 business lessees of state properties to help them cope with Covid-19 impacts.  Many businesses such as Airports of Thailand Plc, Phuket Ferry and various SMEs operating in the hotel sector requested for Treasury to reduce rental fees by 50 percent.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The use of free trade agreement (FTA) privileges and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) by Thai exporters fell by 15.1 percent YoY in the first five months of 2020, corresponding with the country’s lower overall exports.  However, exports of drinks and processed foods remained strong.  Australia, for example, imported more processed tuna and processed tofu from Thailand.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Thailand’s digital content industry is expected to surpass 30 billion Baht in value this year, driven by the rise in demand as users spend more time online in the wake of the pandemic. In the pre-Covid period, Thailand’s digital content industry grew at least 10% a year, with the latest survey showing it was valued at 25 billion Baht in 2017.  Source: Bangkok Post

Opinion

• An interview of Ms Panasuya Sithijirawattanakul who was on stage to read the 10 monarchical reforms on 10 August gave an interview to Nikkei Asian Review on personal background. The interview quoted a diplomat based in Bangkok who said “the ultra-royalists have been shaken at the speed at which the student protests have spread across the country, and the dramatic turn to question the monarchy, even though government spooks had been tracking the youth protests for months”.
• The appointment of Mr Anucha Burapachaisri as the government spokesperson showed that the PM still have a much say in the administration. As other candidates; namely, Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana who got the support from the Justice Minister and leader of ‘Sam Mitr’ faction in the main ruling PPRP; and Mr Tossapon Pengsom who got the support from the Deputy PM and PPRP leader General Prawit.—Krungthep Turakij
• Thai former ambassador to Argentina said that some major powers are plotting against the current government and the monarchy by using agents to abduct the Thai dissident in Cambodia with an aim to tarnish the monarchy. The former diplomat said this is the scramble for Thailand.—Siam Rath

Australia

• In the weekly cabinet meeting, the cabinet has approved Mr Thani Thongphakdi (ANU alumnus) as the permanent-secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Also, the cabinet has approved Mr Anucha Burapachaisri (Sacred Heart College and The University of Adelaide alumnus) as the government spokesperson.

Headlines summary as of 18 August 2020

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports three newly confirmed case, a total of 3,381 cases. Out of the total number, 3,198 have been discharged from hospital (at 94.59%); 125 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at 58. The newly confirmed cases are Thais returned from Russia (2) and India (1). This is the 85th consecutive day that there is no local transmission in Thailand.
  • Public Health authority is carrying out an investigation after a Malaysian national tested positive for Covid-19 after returning from a visit to Bangkok.—all media outlet
  • National police chief on Monday allowed an investigation into the police handling of the Vorayuth “Boss” Yoovidhya case to be extended by a week.—all media outlet

Politics:

• The calls for more democracy have reached school gates as many students in schools nationwide raise their symbolic 3-finger salute during national anthem singing session yesterday and today. The students also tie white ties to their bags symbolising the purity of their causes in resisting dictatorship.
  • At some schools, there were video clips of teachers abusing students physically and verbally. Wat Nuannorradit school had to pull down a poster of PM Prayut as distinguished alumnus, since students took pictures flashing 3-finger salute.
  • This morning Deputy PM Prawit responded to the high school students symbolic expressions by commenting that the 3-finger salute might mean they are scouts.
  • Associate Professor Kanokrat Lertchoosakul of Chulalongkorn University who has been conducting a research on student protests said that Twitter is the main communication channel for most of the protestors. The academia invited Facebook and Line elder users to try using Twitter, which at first might cause unease for older people. The political scientist dismissed the understanding that young protestors have Thanatorn (the former leader of the now defunct Future Forward Party) as their prophet, rather the protestors are addressing based on democratic values.—ThaiPBS interview
  • UNICEF has issued a press release calling for the protection of children and young people amid protests in Thailand. The release calls on all parties to uphold children and young people’s right to freedom of expression, and to protect them from all forms of violence and intimidation.—UNICEF Thailand
  • Tomorrow, ‘นักเรียนเลว’ (Bad Student) group has invited other students to rally in front of the education ministry tomorrow at 4.00pm singing national anthem and blowing the whistle against the Education Minister. The Minister was one of the leader of People’s Democratic Reform Committee (which has whistle as their political symbol).
• Opposition parties are split over a push to amend to section 256 of the constitution to pave the way for charter revisions and set up a new drafting assembly. The second largest opposition Move Forward Party said they also aims for the inclusion to scrap section 269-272 to get the Senate out of politics. The party will hold a press conference later today.—all media outlet
• The cabinet has approved the appointment of Mr Anucha Burapachaisri, the secretary to Education Minister, as the new government spokesperson. Mr Anucha, the engineer by education is Australian high-school and undergraduate alumnus and was Democrat MPs for two terms.

Business:

• At a seminar to launch of Foreign Investor Complaint Centre, an officer from the Immigration Office noted procedures in relation to TM30 form: foreigners do not need to report to Immigration every time they leave their city of residence, as announced by the National Police Office recently.  Foreigners only need to report once they have entered Thailand, and if they travel to other provinces, the hotels will be the one to file the form.  TM 30 Form can now be submitted through a mobile phone application.
• Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Supattanapong Punmeechaow convened a meeting with Finance Ministry officials yesterday.  His economic team will present new economic stimulus package to the CCSA and cabinet by the end of August, while also planning to amend the Bank of Thailand’s soft loan conditions to give SMEs greater accessibility to the loans.  Finance Minister Preedee enthused that the Thai economy faces 3 challenges, namely economic contraction; rising unemployment and limited stimulus budget from the 1 trillion Baht loan decree and central budget transfer.  Finance Ministry’s next focuses include debt restructuring, creating employment as well as promoting domestic tourism and spending to offset the loss of external demands.  Sources:  Thansettakij  Bangkok Post
• The Tourism and Sports Ministry aims to launch its “Safe and Sealed” tourism plan in Phuket by October 1, while Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai aim to position themselves as a northern hub for long-stay travellers.  The plans will be raised at the meeting on 27 August as part of the discussions on the opening of the country to tourists from low-risk cities.  The Tourism Ministry is part of the newly-established economic situation administration and has been working closely with DPM Supattanapong and Finance Minister Preedee.  Source: Bangkok Post
• NESDC downgraded Thailand’s annual economic outlook for 2020 to a -7.3 to -7.8 percent contraction from an earlier forecast of -5 to -6 percent, after it reported the economy contracted by -12.2 percent in Q2; notably the most in 22 years.  NESDC advised the government to speed up public investment, particularly the delayed infrastructure projects.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• NESDC revealed that 750,000 people are unemployed in Q2, equivalent to 1.95 percent of the total workforce and is the highest since Q2 of 2009.  The highest unemployment rate is seen in the hospitality sector (18.3 percent), followed by the retail sector (14.6 percent). Overall, NESDC predicts that 2 million people could become jobless, excluding informal works who are not covered by the Social Security System.
• NESDC noted that 1.76 million workers have received compensations under Section 75 of the Labour Protection Act, where factories are required to pay employees 75 percent of their daily wage if their operations are temporarily suspended due to the pandemic.  However, these 1.76 million workers are at risk of becoming jobless if the factories fail to reopen. 
• Thailand’s household debt has increased to the highest level in 4 years, increasing by 3.9 percent YoY to reach 13.5 trillion Baht.  In essence, household debt accounts for 80.1 percent of GDP, the highest since Q2 of 2016, while the overall credit quality also deteriorated.  Source:  Bangkok Post  Thai Pbs World
• Thailand’s cross-border trade fell by 9.18 percent YoY in the first half of 2020 due to the lockdown measures and the slowing economies of neighbouring countries.  Of the total cross border trade value of 627 billion Baht, exports comprised 365 billion baht, a 8.6 percent YoY decline, while imports shrank by 9.98 percent to 262 billion.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Central Bankruptcy Court is scheduling two more days of hearings (20 August and 25 August) to consider Thai Airways International’s request for restructuring. The Court’s statement revealed that 16 creditors opposed the airline’s restructuring proposals, and that the two days are scheduled for additional hearings for those opposing the plan.  Creditors also question the technical experience of the company appointed to draft the rehabilitation plan.  Source:  Bangkok Post  Bangkok Post
• The Digital Economy Promotion Agency (Depa) is stepping up efforts to work with the Commerce Ministry and other agencies to strengthen local start-ups as a way to mitigate the market domination of foreign digital platforms.  It is building strategic local digital platforms with public and private partners, among the projects including a 30-rai Digital Valley project in Chon Buri that is slated for completion in July next year.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Bank of Thailand is assessing banks’ stress tests and capital increase plans for the next two years before considering whether to relax the interim dividend payment suspension.  Source:  The Bank of Thailand is assessing banks’ stress tests and capital increase plans for the next two years before considering whether to relax the interim dividend payment suspension.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• US technology giant Google went on the offensive Monday against an Australian plan forcing digital giants to pay for news content, telling users their personal data would be “at risk”.  Australia announced last month that firms like Google and Facebook would have to pay news media for content, after 18 months of negotiations ended without agreement.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Opinion:

• The time machine does not exist for the Traditionalists whose political utopian lies upon the dual power of the monarchy and the military delivering relative peace and economic growth.–ThisRupt
• The appointment of FM Don to concurrently serve as the Deputy PM hints that from now on the PM will be focusing on internal political dynamics and to signal the continuity of Thai foreign policy for the diplomatic corps.—Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 17 August 2020

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports a newly confirmed case, a total of 3,378 cases. Out of the total number, 3,194 have been discharged from hospital (at 94.55%); 126 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at 58. The newly confirmed case is Thais returned from Indonesia. This is the 84th consecutive day that there is no local transmission in Thailand.
  • Director-general of the Department of Disease Control warned that despite no local transmission in Thailand for 83 days, there is no guarantee that the country will be free from the 2^nd wave of transmission. He cited that people-to-people interaction have been eased and Thai workers abroad — as well as foreign migrants — are starting to come back.—all media outlet

Politics

• Building on the pendulum of protest yesterday, this morning photos and video clips of students raising (Hunger Games’) three finger salute while singing national anthem are shared online. Some students shared the photos, telling the experience of harassment by their school teachers on Twitter #โรงเรียนหน้าเขาไม่เอาเผด็จการ. —Khaosod (For background, standing to show respect of national anthem is compulsory in Thailand at 8am and 6pm. In school, students will line up to sing the anthem and listen to the school’s director daily guidance.)
• Yesterday marked the largest protest since the 2014 coup d’état:
  •  Media had a consensus that there were more than 10,000 protestors gathered at the democracy monument in central Bangkok to calls for three demands (stop harassing the people; draft a new constitution; and dissolve the parliament), two standpoints (no coup d’etat; no (royally endorsed) national reconciliation government) and a dream (for Thailand to have a truly constitutional monarchy) which could be done in three steps: 1. Abolish article 269-272 to ban the Senate from politics 2. Amend article 256 to set up a drafting assembly and 3. Dissolve the parliament.–Reuters, Nikkei Asian Review (est 25,000), AP, Sputnik (more than 20,000), Channel News Asia, The Straits Times, The Japan Times
  • The Free People Movement has given the September ultimatum to scrap the Senate out of politics; or else the group will escalate its movement. Apart from the national political issues, the students spoke on myriad of issues, including LGBTQ+, Deep South, authoritarianism in schools.
  • Anon Nampa, human rights lawyer spoke on stage last night underlining the 10 propositions for monarchical reforms presented at Thammasat University on 10 August as part of the one dream to truly create constitutional monarchy which would make monarchy getting along well with democratic society. He invited the monarchy to share the same dream with the Movement.—BBC Thai, Prachatai
  • One complication occurred when Parit Chiwarak, Panusaya Sithijirawattanakul and Panupong Jadnok left the protest venue earlier, saying that they are not scheduled to speak on stage. ThaiPBS has reached out and Panusaya said the Free People did not accept the 10 monarchy reform propositions that she introduced.—ThaiPBS and Kom Chad Leuk
  • A group of Thai activists presented themselves at a police station and challenged officers to arrest them on charges over the organisation of protests in recent weeks. There were rumours that 31 protest leaders got arrest warrants. The police said they could neither confirm or deny the rumour.–Reuters
  • Thai people and locals in Taiwan gathered at Taipei main station to concurrently demonstrate with the protestors in Bangkok. People  gathered to protest on dictatorship in Thailand and democracy in Asia. The demonstrators assembled under the so-called ‘Milk Tea Alliance’ (Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand, the Philippines) sharing the same mandate in the fight for democracy.–Matichon
• Prior to the Free People Movement at 3.00pm, around 60 pro-royalists Coordinating Centre for Vocational Students Protecting the Monarchy gathered to  in an attempt to counter an anti-government rally on the opposite side of Ratchadamnoen Avenue. The group dispersed around 4.00pm, leaving some fears of confrontation aside.—all media outlet
  • Building upon the movement, Warong Dechgitvigrom, former royalist Action Coalition for Thailand party’s executive, alerted the media he will establish “กลุ่มไทยภักดี” (Royalist Thai) on this Wednesday.—Krungthep Turakij
• The government has also responded to the protests
  • Ahead of the protest, the deputy government spokesperson said the PM has instructed police to exercise restraint in response to any provocation by anti-government protesters.—Thai PBS World
  • Senator Kamnoon Sidhisamarn commented in response to the protestors’ demands that under the current constitution, one-third of the Senates need to vote on the Charter drafting assembly. Or else, there are only two options left: coup d’état and people revolution which would inevitably led to civil war. He said that though he cannot represent all senators, the Senate are ready to vote based on national interests.–Manager
  • This morning, the House Opposition leader handed over an amendment proposal on article 256 to the House speaker.—Naew Na
• Super poll released its latest study showing that super majority of the people (95.8 %) do not support antigovernment protester making references on the monarchy. Regarding the politician supporters behind the protests: more than half of the people both online and offline thinks that there are politicians manipulating the protestors.—Than Settakij

Opinion:

• Pro-government media has laid out four scenarios of the Free People Movement:
  • 1. If the government enforce the laws rightly and capture the protest leaders; while the government being able to secure its support, the protestors will escalate with violence. It would end up like a ‘Hong Kong’ model.
  • 2. If the government does nothing, the government will be pressured from the protestors and the Royalist, the PM might need to resign or dissolve the House. But with the lesser support from all sides, including with the devastating economic outlook, it is very likely that the PM will lose. The protestors will reign in power, leading to greater conflict.
  • 3. If the government proposes ‘national reconciliation government’, the protestors will not stop, as the protests aim at reducing the monarchy’s power.
  • 4. If there is an amendment in the constitution, including the parts on blanket amnesty for the 2014 coup-maker; or the parts on the monarchy, this would eventually lead to conflicts and, potentially, a coup d’état.
  • The media quoted a senior source in a security agency saying that the end-game of this protests will lead to election under international pressure, particularly from the US which want to dominate Thai politics to balance Chinese influence.—Krungthep Turakij

Business:

• The Thailand Elite Card, a residential visa program for affluent expats, investors and long-stay groups is seeing an expansion opportunity.  It is forecasting 2,288 new enrollees in the FY 2020 (ending in September); a 6.8 percent increase from the previous year, with revenue surging by 7.7 percent to 1.4 billion Baht.  Currently, mainland Chinese account for about a quarter of Thailand Elite cardholders.  Next year, the program will target overseas markets as border restrictions ease, including Hong Kong and Australia residents.  Source:  Bloomberg
• NESDC revealed that Thailand’s Q2 GDP contracted by -12.2 percent YoY, the biggest decline since the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis but better than Bloomberg’s forecast of -13 percent contraction.  Export value plunged by -17.8 percent, the lowest since Q2 of 2009, and import by -23.4 percent. Unemployment rises to 2 percent and headline inflation is a -2.7 percent.  In the first six months of 2020, the economy contracted by -6.9 percent.  The 2020 GDP is expected to range from -7.3 to -7.8 percent, with export to contract by -10 percent and investment by -5.8 percent.  Source:  Bangkok Post  NESDC Q2 2020 Report
• Commerce Ministry plans to seek the cabinet’s approval in signing RCEP in October and have an official sign the agreement in November at the ASEAN Summit in Vietnam.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Labour Ministry plans to send 52,253 Thai workers overseas by September such as the Middle East and parts of Asia.  The Ministry reasoned that Thai workers are in demand because of Thailand’s success in handling the COVID-19 outbreak.  The workers will also generate income for Thailand and stimulate the local economy.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The state-run Government Savings Bank will start accepting vehicles as collateral for the first time in its 107-year history in response to the rise in demands for small-ticket loans.  GSB will also establish a joint venture in early 2021 to tap into the lending business and offer unsecured low-rate loans as part of the government’s move to tackle income inequality.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Tourism

• Tourism Council of Thailand forecasts that Thailand may not open its borders to international tourists this year and for the number of foreign arrivals to be below 7 million.  TCT urged the newly-established Economic Situation Administration to prioritise relief measures for the tourism industry, such as accessible loans with the government acting as credit guarantor.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Business operators in Phuket are pushing to allow long-stay tourists to resume their visits to in November.  Phuket will pioneer the ‘4T’ model (Target, Testing, Tracing and Treatment), which is designed to balance public health issues with economic recovery.  The group will push for chartered flights to transport the tourists to Thailand, where they will be required to undergo quarantine at the hotel for 5-14 days.  Tourists will also be tracked and authorities will work to ensure public health preparedness and response.  Sources:  Bangkok Post

Phuket is also discussing the travel bubble scheme with the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) and will start focusing on health and wellness tourism.  It is building a medical plaza, complete with long-term care centre and nursing homes for foreign patients against the scenic setting of Mai Khao beach.  Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1969267/phuket-sets-sail-for-recovery

• The Tourism Association of Koh Samui will meet with the CCSA to brainstorm guidelines to allow foreign tourists to visit Samui.  Tourists will be allowed to leave quarantine facility after 14 days, but will have to wear special wrist band when travelling outside. They also urge the government to lower airfare to the island as there is only one airline monopolizing flights to Samui.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Pattaya is shifting its tourism strategy to draw local tourists and improving its infrastructure to prepare for recovery.  It is spending 160 million Baht for landscape beautification on a 4-km stretch of Pattaya beach, due to start in October until year-end.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Australia

• Six years of Don Pramudwinai as Foreign Minister: a successful tenure for Thai international status. As a seasoned diplomat, FM Don has managed to steer Thailand towards many international issues. On the case of Bahrain football player Mr Hakeem, the media said “at first, the Australian has informed Thailand that Mr Hakeem has Interpol arrest warrant but as the issue has gone viral Australia flipped and blamed Thailand. Australia did not do anything to solve the issue, though Thailand insist that Australia needs to discuss this with Bahrain.”–Matichon