Headline summary as of 21st May 2020

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports 3 newly confirmed cases, a total number of 3037 cases. Out of the total number, 2,897 have been discharged from the hospital; 84 are being hospitalised. The death toll is at  56. The new 3 cases contain one in a state quarantine (arriving from the Philippines); one Thai national in Bangkok; and the other German national went to visit a relative in the Northeastern province of Chaiyaphum.
  • National Security Council (NSC) secretary-general Gen Somsak said authorities will decide today whether the state of emergency needs to be extended. After the decision has been reached by CCSA, the cabinet will consider the recommendation at a cabinet weekly meeting on May 26.—all media outlet
  • Breaking: NSC Sec-gen has just announced after the meeting that the CCSA has reached a decision to extend the emergency decree for another month, effective from 1 June. The sec-gen quotes that the second wave of COVID-19 transmission is feasible.—Khao Sod, Than Settakij, Krungthep Turakij, Than Settakij
  • The CCSA said Thailand will begin testing the mRNA (messenger RNA) vaccine in monkeys next week after successful trials in mice and expects to have a vaccine for the novel coronavirus ready next year.
• Police in Thailand have arrested 15 Rohingya Muslims on charges of illegal entry and are investigating the possibility that they could be victims of human trafficking.—Reuters, Siam Rath, Manager

Politics

• Following on yesterday’s report on a key person in the main ruling Pheu Thai Party will split up and establish a new political party, media report that it is Chaturon Chaisang, former Education Minister and former member of the dissolved Thai Raksa Chart (TRC) Party. Media reports that he will join hands with other TRC candidates, businesses and former state officials to establish a political party which shares ideology with opposition parties.—Daily News, Krungthep Turakij, Nation Weekend
• Palang Pracharath (PPRP) leader and Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana has dismissed talk of him and several key figures resigning from their positions in the ruling party due to an internal conflict. He and other key members involving in the report yesterday denied that they are planning to form a new political party.—all media outlet
• Main opposition Pheu Thai Party secretary-general Anudith complained against the allocated time given to grill the three executive loan decrees. The debate time which will see only 30 hours debate in total across 3 days provided with the opposition getting only half that to scrutinise the decrees is too short.—all media outlet
• As coronavirus-related restrictions ease and people gradually resume their normal lives, Thai politics is all set to heat up again.—ThaiPBS World

Business:

Pesticide Banning

• The Royal Gazette published an Industry Ministry’s announcement on 19 May that the pesticides chlorpyrifos and parquet will be included in the hazardous substance type 4 list, effective from 1 June.  In short, the use and import of the pesticides chlorpyrifos and parquet will be banned from June onwards. 
• In response, the Agricultural Safety Association (ASA) will join groups of farmers to petition the Administrative Court for an injunction to suspend this ban.  ASA contended that farmers have no substitutes for the pesticides and the government does not have measures to mitigate the ban’s impact on the farmers.  Farmers will have to use milder chemicals at a larger quantity, which increases their production cost.  ASA also threatened to file a lawsuit against all involved ministries and NGOs that support the ban.
• Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) is advocating for the government to relax the ban.  TCC has established a committee to compile opinions from businesses, farmers and consumers on the ban for presenting to the government.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1921520/farmers-reject-chemical-ban

Economic News

• Thailand’s car production in April hit its lowest level in 30 years due to weak global demand, factory shutdowns and redundancies.  April’s car production of 24,711 units was a decrease of 83.6 percent YoY.  Domestic car sales also shrank for an 11^th straight month in April, tumbling 65 percent from a year earlier to 30,109 vehicles.  This was the first contraction in three years. 
• Industrial confidence index stood at 75.9 in April; Thailand’s lowest in 11 years.  Entrepreneurs, particularly SMEs, are facing a liquidity crunch and agricultural output is likely to be weak due to the drought.  Sources:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1921664/30-year-low-for-car-output    https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1921336/domestic-car-sales-plunge-65-in-april https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1921648/april-confidence-hits-in-11-year-nadir
• Bank of Thailand has reduced policy rate yesterday by 0.25 percentage point to a new historical low of 0.5 percent.  The policy rate reduction is the fifth since August 2019.  BOT estimates further downside risk in 2020, led by deep global economic contraction and muted headline inflation averaging -1.0 percent in the year ahead.  BOT urged financial institutions to accelerate debt restructuring as borrowers’ debt servicing ability may decline and it will also monitor the Baht appreciation, which could hurt economic recovery.  Source:  UOB newsletter, 20 May; https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1921632/interest-rate-cut-to-record-low-0-5-
• CIMB Thai Bank anticipates a 14 percent fall in Q2 GDP YoY and an 8.9 percent GDP contraction for year 2020.  Tourism and export would continue to decline due to weak global demand and continual lockdown of other countries.  The efficiency of the government’s stimulus measures depends on how fast and how much it can spend to speed up budget utilization.  Thailand will face higher uncertainty given the slow recovery of the tourism sector.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1921628/cimbt-sees-sharp-q2-gdp-contraction
• Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) projects that it could take three years for Thailand’s economic condition to return to normalcy since this economic crisis will be bigger than the episode in 2018.  TDRI said the pandemic might increase trade barriers, highlighting the chance of a renewed trade war between US and China and other countries imposing protectionist measures on China.  There is likely to be a delay in Thailand’s infrastructure projects since the government will prioritise its spending on combating the pandemic.  The government will collect higher tax and this will chip away household wealth and business sector’s profit.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1921640/tdri-return-to-normal-in-three-years
• Board of Investment will work with SME Development Bank and Exim Bank to help SMEs.  Some of the assistant measures are: reducing the minimum investment requirement for applicants of BOI privileges to Baht 500,000; increasing corporate tax break to 200 per cent of investment value for type A entrepreneurs; allowing the import of second hand machines to be used in the project.  Source:  https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30388158

Aviation and others news

• Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) is concerned China is dumping its steel into Thailand.  The pandemic has reduced China’s domestic demand, while the Chinese government also promoting steel exports, such as by increasing export tax rebate.  Data from China’s Customs Department showed its steel exports to Thailand in March increased by 53 percent YoY.  Meanwhile, Thailand’s domestic steel consumption is expected to drop as downstream industries (automotive, construction) are in a slump, with Thailand’s steel utilisation capacity in March standing at 36 percent.  FTI seeks the government’s support for the domestic steel industry by using local steel to for state construction projects, i.e.: high-speed train, electric trains and at the EEC.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1921776/fti-seeks-measures-to-counter-chinese-dumping
• The Finance Ministry will sell 3.17 percent of its stake in Thai Airways International to the state-run Vayupak 1 Fund, thereby stripping the airline of its state enterprise status.  This will allow the airline to fulfil the court-ordered restructuring.  Thai will also be able to select 30 professionals to be appointed as rehabilitation planners, which will be presented to PM Prayut for his consideration on Monday and later to the Central Bankruptcy Court.  As part of the rehabilitation plan, some 6,000 of the 21,000 Thai Airways employees will be laid off.  It is feared that the 82 cooperatives which invested in the airline’s debentures worth 42 billion Baht will start panic withdrawals, although the cooperatives’ debentures mature at different time.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1921508/ministry-to-cut-thai-stake
• Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation Ministry is hiring 40,000 employees.  It secured a budget of 800 million Baht to pay employees 9,000 Baht monthly from July to September after the application opens in June.  Source: National News Bureau of Thailand fb page, 20 May

ASEAN/World

• Tsai Ing-wen inaugurated her second term as Taiwanese President, negating PRC’s core principle of ‘One country-Two systems’. Mainland government counter-argued that reunification is inevitable.—all media outlet
• Nikkei has learned that Panasonic will shut down a large appliance factory outside Bangkok as early as this fall and consolidate production to a larger facility in Vietnam for greater efficiency.—Asia Nikkei

Australia

• Thai language outlet of Chinese media reported on Chinese MFA spokesperson requesting Australia to stop politicise COVID-19, claiming the Australian-led proposition of independent investigation into COVID-19 is an intention to assault China.–XinHua, CRI Online

Headline summary as of 20th May 2020

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today Thailand reports 1 newly confirmed cases, a total of 3,034 cases. Out of the total number, 2,888 have been discharged from hospital; 90 are being hospitalised. The death toll is still at 56. 
• The Department of Livestock Development (DLD) said it is ready to ramp up vaccinations for African Horse Sickness (AHS) in at-risk zones, including parts of Bangkok and neighbouring provinces, to curb the spread of the disease, which has killed 543 horses.—Bangkok Post, Daily News, Matichon

Politics

• Media quotes key members in the government saying that the “Fantastic4” group (Finance Minister Uttama, Energy Minister Sondhirat, Higher Education Minister Suvit and Assistant Secretary to the PMO Kobsak) met with main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) MP Watanya and a telecommunication tycoon at Hansar Hotel to discuss the possibility of establishing a new party “สร้างไทย (Construct Thailand)”. The group under Deputy PM Somkid (Fantastic4) wing is reportedly in conflict with Deputy PM Prawit wing over PPRP chief positions.—Thai Post, Kom Chad Leuk
• PM Prayut issued an order to reinstate Whichai Pochanakij as Director-General of the Department of Internal Trade. He was transferred on in mid-March over allegations of hoarding face masks. He had tried to resign the day after he was transferred to the Office of Prime Minister but his resignation was rejected by Commerce Minister Jurin.

Business:

Cabinet’s Decisions, 19 May

• Thai Airways will file for bankruptcy with courts in Thailand and the US, where 35 percent of the airline’s creditors are located.  The court-dictated rehabilitation will reduce Finance Ministry’s majority stake in the airline to below 50 percent and end its state enterprise status.  The bankruptcy court will also appoint professionals to execute the rehab plan.  The original rehab plan where Finance Ministry would guarantee a 54-billion Baht loan to the airline is scrapped.  PM Prayut reasoned that the money should be spent on Covid19 relief measures.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1920900/cabinet-gives-nod-to-thai-rehab
• The National 5G Committee was established with 26 members, conceived to promote roadmap for 5G adoption and infrastructure development.  PM Prayut is the chairman, with DPMs Somkid, Prawit and Wissanu serving as the deputy chairmen.   Perm Sec of Digital Economy and Society Ministry is the Director and Secretary.  The objective of the committee is to.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1920976/national-5g-committee-welcomes-26-members
• Chapters 2, 3, 5, 6 and 7 of the Personal Data Protection Act is postponed by a year to give the private sector time to prepare and ease their financial burden during the pandemic outbreak.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1920972/most-parts-of-pdpa-to-be-deferred-by-a-year

CPTPP

• DPM and Commerce Minister Jurin dismissed the rumour that CPTPP was submitted for the cabinet’s consideration yesterday, adding that the issue of conflicting public opinions on Thailand joining the CPTPP has not been resolved.   However, rumours surfaced that DPM Somkid ordered for CPTPP to be tabled for the cabinet’s consideration yesterday, but the DPM did not show up at the last minute as he was feeling ill.  Meanwhile, Bangkok Post reported that PM Prayut himself had commanded for CPTPP to be submitted to the cabinet, and that it was discussed – not at the formal meeting but at the sideline.  Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1920956/jurin-preps-ministers-for-cptpp-talkshttps://www.thansettakij.com/content/politics/435042Others

Others

• The merger & acquisition (M&A) trend will become prevalent in Q2 as companies begin to divest their non-core businesses to maintain their liquidity in the wake of the pandemic outbreak .  Other companies will sell their assets or businesses at low value as they go bankrupt.
• Both Thai companies and foreign funds with sound financial status are seeking opportunities to buy these businesses.  KTB Securities is facilitating multiple M&A deals in the food, logistics and medical sectors.  CIMB projects that M&A will be most evident in the hotel sector, given that tourism is one of the first and most severely affected industries.
• In the past month, SMEs are selling/pawning their land, houses, apartments, hotels and offices with values ranging from 10 to 300 million Baht through real estate agents and brokers.  This phenomenon indicates that small-scale entrepreneurs are in need of short-term cash flow.  Source:  https://www.prachachat.net/property/news-464786
•  Thai Hotels Association is urging SME operators to enroll with the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s Safety and Health Administration (SHA).  TAT is opening registration system to 10 hospitality business types, such as restaurants, hotels, transport, travel agencies, among others.  The operators that complete the SHA checklist will receive a certificate from the TAT after it is audited by the tourism association.  The focus is to ensure operators endorse a new set of safety and hygiene standards as tourism recovers.  TAT plans to support SMEs to adopt SHA by offering incentives for additional costs from new hygiene equipment investment.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1921028/hotels-called-to-hygiene-squad
• While Thailand’s egg export ban was lifted at the end of May, there is currently an oversupply of 100 million eggs in the domestic market.  This is the result of major importers such as Hong Kong and Singapore switching to import eggs from elsewhere during the period when it could not export from Thailand.  Egg is now priced at 2.40 Baht per piece, whereas the cost for farmers is soaring due to the drought.  Egg farmers are seeking assistance from the Egg Board under Ministry of Commerce.  Source:https://www.thansettakij.com/content/Macro_econ/435073

Australia

• Immigration police have arrested an Australian man accused of sexually assaulting seven boys in his apartment in Tak province’s Mae Sot district. https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1920952/australian-man-arrested-accused-of-abusing-boys#cxrecs_s

Headline summary as of 19th May 2020

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports 2 newly confirmed cases, a total of 3,033 cases. Out of the total number, 2,857 have been discharged from hospital; 120 are being hospitalised. The death toll is still at 56. The two cases were visiting their relatives (confirmed) in a hospital in Southern Thailand.
  • Online and national televised education began yesterday with a lot of dramas, ranging from the server capacity to the problematic quality of education.—all media outlet
• A twitter trending “#BanKrispyKreme” is on top trending in Thai twitter as the company fired its intern staff for questioning on Facebook whether the late King Rama IX actually composed all the song by himself or plagiarised other artists.

Politics

• Today marks ten years of the bloody military crackdown of red-shirt protestors in 2010.
• Wat Pathum Wanaram temple where there was six people shot dead, despite being declared “no fire zone”, announced that it will close down for disinfecting today. Protestors and a mother of volunteer nurse inside the temple who was shot dead by a sniper are scheduled to hold a commemorative service.
  • Progressive Movement, the political movement succeeding the now defunct Future Forward Party, will hold an online seminar to commemorate the crackdown.
• Media reported that joining the CPTPP will be on the weekly cabinet agenda today, despite the Ministry of Commerce earlier withdrawal from the agenda after facing oppositions. 
  • ‘FTA Watch’ and ‘Bio Thai’, local NGOs which have been monitoring the Thai joining of CPTPP, said they are planning to do an online protest all day.
  • Deputy Economic PM Somkid handed a sick leave for the weekly cabinet meeting, saying that the CPTPP matters is under the Democrat Party Ministry of Commerce’s authority.—Krunghtep Turakij
  • Meanwhile, Commerce Minister Jurin said he denied the ministry involvement in all this. He said whether Thailand will join the trade pact; or not is for the PM to decide.
• Media reported that big names in the main opposition and largest party in the House, Pheu Thai Party are planning to establish a new political party, since the internal fractures in the party is at a point of no-return.–Prachachart
• Last night, there was an anonymous laser projection “#StopChanaIndustrialPark”, “#ReconsiderTheProject” on the headquarter building of Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre in the Southern province of Yala. SBPAC is looking into the case whether the projection is conducted during the curfew hours; or is the photos were just photoshopped. Some expect that this might be a resistance campaign against the SBPAC’s industrialization of Chana District.—The Reporter

Business:

 Tourism

• Tourism Authority of Thailand estimates international tourists will return in October.   It revised this year’s arrivals to 14-16 million and domestic trips to 100 million.  Total revenue is projected at 1.23 trillion Baht.
• TAT will target high spending tourists within the region to visit under a quota.  It will also launch the International Tourists Bridge project to attract high-end European tourists without subjecting them to the 14-day quarantine.
• Tourism and Sports Minister expects it will submit to the cabinet its proposal for a tourism rehabilitation plan next week.  The plan will spend 10-20 billion Baht from the 400 billion Baht budget set aside for economic rehabilitation projects. 
• In the post-Covid19 era, Thai tourism will be rebranded into ‘Amazing Trusted Thailand’, positioning itself as a country that can guarantee health and safety standards for tourists and locals alike.  Its target group is high spending tourists. 
• When Thailand exits the lockdown at the end of this month, TAT plans to match tourists from countries that were removed from the government’s ‘Disease Infected Zones for Covid19’ list with provinces that are infection-free for 28 days or more.  Islands such as Phuket or Samui may be the first to be opened to international arrivals due to their geographical advantage that allows the disease to be easily controlled. Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1920336/tat-trusted-rebranding-curates-market

Others

• Bank of Thailand (BOT) reported on the progress of its soft loan scheme (budget of 500 billion Baht) with 2 percent interest for 2 years, available from 23 April – 22 October 2020: 
• BOT reiterated to financial institutions that they should not charge additional fees when making the soft loans to SMEs.  To date (18 May), some 49,308 million Baht worth of soft loan was made to 28,601 SMEs.  Of these SMEs, 72 percent are small businesses that make loans of 20 billion Baht or less.  BOT promoted for financial institutions to continue offering these loans as there is still plenty of budget left.
• BOT also has other measures to assist small-scale debtors and SMEs with loan payment holiday for credit card, mortgage, leasing, personal loans, microfinance and nano-finance.  The assistance offered is valued at 4.6 million million Baht and have helped 13.08 million small-scale debtors and SMEs. 
• BOT will proactively negotiate debt restructuring plans with financial institutions to fit with small scale debtor’s income.  Source:  BOT press conference, 18 May 2020
• Thai exports of computers and components in the first quarter of 2020 rose to nearly USD$4 billion (Bt128 billion), placing it at the top among ASEAN nations, according to Department of Trade Negotiations.  Thailand is the second-biggest hard-disk drive exporter after China, where computer and component exports from January to April expanded by 14 per cent YoY, with hard-disk drives seeing the greatest expansion of 23 percent.   The increase is partly attributable to the free trade agreements Thailand has in place with 18 countries and it joining the Information Technology Agreement under the WTO that allows tariff-free exports of IT-related products to more than 50 member nations.  The investment value in computer and electronic manufacturing industries in Thailand is currently USD18.17 billion, with these industries having generated more than 300,000 jobs.  Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30388093?fbclid=IwAR1flg-sODUoiCcmCXVODngmDC8NraprfLBGUjYRP8yFKvpBxt60IxFZVaU
• Bank of Thailand is expected to cut interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5 percent when it meets tomorrow.  This follows on from NESDC’s report that Thailand’s GDP 2020 is expected to contract by 5 percent, with its Q1 GDP shrinking by 1.8 percent YoY – Thailand’s first contraction since early 2014.  Krungthai Bank said this is an indication that Thailand’s economy is entering a recession and forecasts a -8 percent GDP contraction for 2020.  On the contrary, Standard Chartered predicts a -5 percent contraction on the basis that the economy will start recovering in June. Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1920432/nesdc-predicts-5-6-contraction
• The non-performing loans (NPS) of commercial banks hit a 9-year high (497 billion Baht) at 3.05 percent of loans outstanding at the end of March, compared to 2.98 percent at the end of 2019.  Consumer bad loans (3.23 percent increase) have outpaced commercial NPLs (declined to 2.97 percent) for the first time in four years.  Stage 2 loan (loans with credit risk that increased significantly) increased to 7.7 percent from 2.79 percent at the end of 2019. Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1920428/commercial-banks-npls-hit-9-year-high-at-end-of-march
• New corporate bond issuance plunged by 41.9 percent (valued at 180 billion Baht) from January to April compared to the same period last year (valued at 310 billion Baht), according to KBank.  The size of new corporate bond issuance is expected to decline by 20 percent to 900 billion Baht this year from 1.08 trillion Baht last year.  There have been no negative signs for expected rollover bonds and no companies have requested use of the central bank’s Corporate Bond Stablization Fund.  Corporate bonds are also shifting to fundraising via private placement with institutional and high net worth investors.  Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1920348/corporate-bond-issuance-plunges
• Gold prices reached a near 8-year high yesterday (US$1,760 per ounce) due to the US Federal Reserve chairman’s comment on the US’s slow economic recovery.  Prices of local gold bar and gold ornaments were 26,600 and 27,100 Baht respectively per one-Baht weight gold.  Long queues of began to form on the streets of Yaowarat as people began selling gold holdings om Friday and over the weekend.  An Oanda Corporation analyst noted that this might be the beginning of the inflation-hedge as opposed to safe haven trade. Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1920344/gold-leaps-to-eight-year-high
• PM Prayut and the State Enterprise Policy Committee agreed with the idea that Thai Airways should be rehabilitated under the bankruptcy law and for it to be considered by the cabinet today.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1920264/thai-edges-to-bankruptcy-court
• Ministry of Labour has paid unemployment compensation from Social Security Fund to 984,005 people worth 5.3 billion Baht as of 18 May.  Applicants can make appeals and employers’ as well as employees can submit additional documents at Social Security Offices nationwide.  Source:  https://www.thansettakij.com/content/normal_news/434931?fbclid=IwAR36ciPf1NohMNExQ0SJqTfrkCPfzV5q3-q0G6WDxLAlq64ui_KwHftsacI

ASEAN/World

• In the WHO general assembly via video conference yesterday, Xi Jinping broke his silence by addressing how Chinese authority has been dealing with COVID-19 crisis and that China supports a comprehensive review of the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. – all media outlet
• PR News ‘Thailand and other ASEAN countries join China in the fight against the COVID-19’— Bangkok Post

Australia

• Chiang Mai Police apprehended a 60-years-old Australian national for possessing more than 10 thousands pedophilia photos and video clips looking to distribute it via Twitter account and paid membership. The police found that he has done the similar thing in other country 2013. After relieved from jail term, he came to reside in Thailand, since then.—Daily News

Headline summary as of 18th May 2020

News

Updates related to COVID-19:

• Today, Thailand reports 3 newly confirmed cases, a total of 3,031 cases. Out of the overall number, 2,857 have been discharged from the hospital; 118 are being hospitalised. The death toll is still at 56.
• Yesterday was the first day that the CCSA eased its nation-wide restrictions to reopen department stores. A massive number of shoppers overcrowded with ‘new normal’ shopping restrictions.
  • The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) on May 16 extended a ban on inbound international flights until June 30.
  • CAAT also reversed its decision to reopen of Phuket International Airport. In an abrupt u-turn on May 16, the CAAT ordered the extension of the closure of Phuket International Airport until further notice.
  • Breaking: Massage business operators are at the Government House to submit a letter to the government, asking to ease the restrictions on their business. There was news earlier that foot massage will be allowed in the second set of restriction, but was not there in the announcement on Friday.

• China asks Thai Ministry of Transport to close the high-speed train deal on 25 May. 80 percent of the construction cost for the Bangkok-Nakhon Ratchasima route will be in USD. Minister of Transport expects to propose this deal to the cabinet for approval in October.—Prachachart Turakij, Manger
• An African horse sickness (AHS) outbreak that emerged in Pak Chong district of Nakhon Ratchasima recently, killing at least 433 horses, has now spread to neighbouring Saraburi province.—Bangkok Post

Politics

• A source in the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) told media that the Energy Minister and the Secretary-General of the party Mr. Sondhirat is planning to use 10 million THB each to buy support from MPs in the party in the highly expected party’s executives reshuffle. The money is from Energy Conservation and Promotion Fund. The MPs under Deputy PM Prawit faction told the media that they have audio evidence.—PostToday
  • The Ministry spokesperson denied the allegation.
• Government Spokesperson said PM Prayut does not have the intention of prolonging a nationwide state of emergency following fierce criticism that he intends to extend the emergency law for his own political gain.—all media outlet

Business:

Q1 Economic Results

• NESDC revealed that Thailand’s GDP in Q1 of 2020 contracted by -1.8 percent compared to an increase of 1.5 in Q4 of 2019, marking a 2.2 percent quarter-on-quarter decline.  Agricultural sector saw a contraction of -5.7 percent due to the drought; export a drop of -6.7 percent and import a fall of- 2.5 percent.  Accommodation & food service activities dropped by -24 percent, with tourist arrivals declining by -38 percent to 6.69 million people.  The number of Chinese tourists declined by 60 percent.  Consequently, international tourism receipts contracted by 39 percent.
• Thai economy in 2020 is expected to contract within the range of -5 or -6 percent.  Export value will see an -8 percent decline, private consumption -1.7 percent and investment -2.1 percent.  Current account is expected to see a surplus of 4.9 percent of GDP. Source:  https://www.nesdc.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=10212&filename=QGDP_report

Cash-handout

• Finance Ministry estimates it will spend 350 billion Baht for cash handout to 15 million self-employed informal workers and 10 farming households.  It is too early to assess whether the cash-handout will end in June or be extended for another three months.
• Overall, the government has provided assistance to 35-36 million people, comprising 10-11 million who are covered by Social Security Fund, 15 million informal workers and 10 million farming households.
  • Of the total 1 trillion Baht to be borrowed:400 billion Baht is for economic and social rehabilitation projects
  • 45 billion Baht is for healthcare related projects
  • 550 billion Baht is for financial aid for workers and farmers.  Some 350 billion Baht is allocated for cash giveaway to informal workers and farmers.  The remaining 200 billion Baht will be used to finance a fund to help small entrepreneurs access loans as well as to care for vulnerable group.
• Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1918996/state-readies-b350bn-in-aid-for-informal-workers-farmers

Tourism/Aviation

• Aviation business in Thailand this year is forecast to see a sharp fall in passenger demand by 52 percent YoY, with 2.1 million jobs in aviation and tourism industry at risk.    The International Air Transport Association said that in the worst-case-scenario, Thailand will face a 31 percent drop in arrivals from the original forecast of 41.9 million, and will recover late in the second quarter of 2022.  Chinese arrivals will recover only in 2021.  Overall, the aviation industry will face downsizing of 20-30 percent and recovery in international tourism will be slow. Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1919792/most-airlines-likely-to-pare-back-networks
• The outcome for Thai Airways will be unveiled at the end of May.  The State Enterprise Policy Committee has submitted the restructuring proposal, which would be forwarded to Transport Ministry for approval first before it goes to the cabinet. 
• In its first phase, Thai Airways plans to seek 54 billion baht in short-term loan as working capital.  In its second phase, it will seek capital increase of 80 billion Baht, downsize its employees, discharge 22 airplanes by 2024 and possibly reduce Finance Ministry’s shareholding portion from 51 percent to 49 percent.  It will also undergo an organizational overhaul by being converted into a holding company and separating different business segments into subsidiaries under the holding company’s umbrella.  Critics are saying if taxpayers’ money worth 100 billion Baht should be used to fund a state-owned enterprise saddled with long history of corruption and nepotism.
• Other suggestions include Thai Airways entering into a rehabilitation plan by filing for bankruptcy, or nationalizing or privatizing the airline.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1919868/thai-tries-to-stick-the-landing

Supply Chain

• A shift in the supply chain of the automotive industry will be evident following the Covid19 outbreak, with companies eyeing relocating their production plants to Vietnam and Thailand due to their capabilities in containing the outbreak.  Carmakers will move away from investing in China due to the fallout from the US-China trade war combined with Covid19 outbreak.   Companies are likely to either re-shore or increase their capacities in existing manufacturing bases, such as in ASEAN, particularly Thailand and Vietnam that have excelled in containing the pandemic outbreak.
• In the future, Thailand is expected to welcome foreign investments in manufacturing plants that supply EV vehicles parts.  Carmakers are also likely to open more manufacturing plants in Thailand to shorten the supply chain and reduce reliance on import.  Thailand should also market its capability in containing the pandemic to lure foreign investments, in addition to providing attractive investment incentives and infrastructure.  Source:  https://www.bangkokbiznews.com/news/detail/880618

Others

• Investment applications for 10 special economic zones (SEZs) remain low compared with those made into the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC).  Investments in SEZ totaled 11 billion in value through 75 projects from year 2015 to 2020.  Investment applications in the EEC in Q1 of 2020 came from 117 projects (an increase of 116 projects from the same period last year) worth 47.6 billion Baht (declining from 75.1 billion YoY).  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1919812/sez-interest-pales-next-to-eec
• GSP benefit cuts by the United States for six categories of rice products would only slightly affect Thailand’s export , following on from the report that the USTR is reviewing petitions involving the removal of six rice products. Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1919660/rice-cuts-wont-hurt-exports

ASEAN/World

• Chinese HOM to Israel was found dead at his residence in Tel Aviv. Israeli police spokesperson said it is natural cause of death.—all media outlet

Australia

• Media reported on the US and Australian Ambassadors to Thailand who praised Thai government’s performance in dealing with COVID-19.—Than Settakij

Headline summary as of 15th May 2020

News:

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports 7 newly confirmed cases (all in state quarantine after travelling back from Pakistan), a total of 3,025 cases. Out of the total number, 2,854 have been discharged from the hospital, 115 are being hospitalized. The death toll is still at 56.
  • Today, the Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) will decide whether to ease COVID related restrictions later today. It is expected that the curfew hours will be pushed back for one more hours, from 11pm to 4am.—all media outlet
  • CCSA said the “Thai Chana” (Thai Victory) tracing application to track people infected with COVID-19 will be introduced to all business operators that will resume business on May 17 in the 2nd Phase easing of the lockdown restrictions. With the online tracing system, customers can be tracked and text messages will be sent to them in case they need to be tested, if a customer visiting the same venue has tested positive for COVID-19. The Digital Economy will hold a launching ceremony today.

Politics:

• The rift in the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) is still unsettling. The Finance Minister and the Party leader Uttama said he has not resigned from the party position as some media has reported earlier. He still clings to the PM advice to put administration above all politics. Other executives who reportedly resigned earlier declined the rumours.—all media outlet
  • Siam Rath ponders that this latest series of news is from the Somkid’s clique, considering they have no real MPs to support the next cabinet reshuffle. (see attached)
• Metropolitan Police has prepared to secure politically significant sites in Bangkok by setting up checkpoints and asked for coordination from people in the area to prevent light projection on the buildings. The Progressive Movement, the political movement successor of the now defunct Future Forward Party, is mobilising its political campaign by projecting “#FindingtheTruth” laser on venues where there were deadly crackdowns of the red-shirt protestors 10 years ago.—Krungthep Turakij

Business:

Tourism

• The massive blow to the tourism industry caused by the pandemic may offer an opportunity for hotel investors to buy properties, but currently Chiang Mai and Phuket have yet to witness that phenomenon.  Tourism is expected to resume at only 30-40 percent of normal capacity in October.  This may trigger some hotels to sell their properties. The tourism rebound may also prompt hotel investors to acquire existing hotels.
• Hotel trading in Thailand peaked from 2017-2018 and exceeded 20 billion Baht, but last year only four hotels worth 5 billion baht were sold.  Colliers International Thailand cited that a shortage of properties attractive for investment as the reason.
• Earlier this year, the pandemic caused hotel occupancy rate to dip to 51.5 percent in Q1, falling to 20.8 percent in March.  The impact from the pandemic on hospitality will worsen until June, with hotel operators to lose more than 50 percent of bookings and revenue in the first half of 2020. Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1918440/tourism-hotspots-await-hotel-investors
• Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) said it is hard to predict when the tourism will recover due to Thailand’s reliance on arrivals from China.  The EEC zone will be hard hit because it fully relies on foreign tourists.  The pandemic is expected to end by the start of 2021 and travel should resume fully once the vaccine is found.  The tourism sector in Chonburi should return to normal by Q2 of next year.  Source:  https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30387799

Stimulus Package

• Finance Ministry will offer assistance to business operators that retain their workers on the payroll.  Aid measures are expected to be submitted to the cabinet for approval next Tuesday. 
• DPM Somkid announced that a fund, worth no more than 100 billion Baht, will be established to help small entrepreneurs that cannot access financial institution loans.
• Each state agency is asked to propose projects to a screening committee using the 400-billion-Baht budget to pursue economic rehabilitation projects.  The focus will be on sufficiency economy and job creation upcountry.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1918436/somkid-aid-for-keeping-employees-on-payroll-coming
• The government’s special savings bonds, valued at 50 billion Baht, was made available to those aged over 60 years old for the first day yesterday.  Already some 25 billion Baht worth of bonds were sold, with 60 percent of the buyers purchasing the 5-year bond for an average value of 1 million Baht per bond.  Source:  https://wwww.thansettakij.com/content/money_market/434337
• Finance Ministry reported that 14.5 million applicants are approved to receive the 5,000 Baht cash-handout, of which Finance Ministry will pay 14.2 million recipients within this week.  The remaining 300,000 recipients will be paid next week. 
• The appeal at the Department of Public Relations closes today, but appeals could still be made at various branches of Government Savings Bank and Krungthai Bank from 18 – 29 May.    Source:  http://www.mof.go.th

Agriculture

• Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF) expects its best performance this year, driven by high demand for pork as there is supply shortage due to the African swine fever outbreak in several countries.  It hardly feels any impact from the pandemic, thanks to diversified overseas investments. Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1918324/cpf-cashes-in-on-swine-fever-chickens
• The first shipment by train of Thai Durians (18 tonnes) and mangosteens (64 tonnes) worth 6 million Baht is due to arrive in China today.  The produce was transported from Thailand to Vietnam, which was then sent on via train to the newly-opened Dongxing border in Guangxi, southern China.  Up to 70 container loads of Thai fruit were being transported to China by train four times a day from Vietnam.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1918416/durians-call-on-china

Others

• Thailand is ranked as the number 1 best country to start a business by US News & World Report from 73 countries worldwide.  This will boost the confidence of foreign investors into Thailand in the post-Covid19 era.  Source:  Thai Government fb page, 14 May  https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/best-start-a-business
• Thai Airways may not be able to pay its staff this month due to liquidity issue.  It has two options: to pursue a rehabilitation plan where the Finance Ministry guarantees a 50-billion Baht bailout loan or enter a bankruptcy court-dictated rehabilitation.  The Ministry of Finance is mulling over the rehabilitation plans for both options.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1918240/bankruptcy-an-option-for-debt-stricken-thai-says-uttama
• Thailand’s GDP will improve from Q3 onwards, boosted by the 1-trillion Baht relief plan and also relying on the effectiveness of the 400-billion Baht economic rehabilitation plan, said Kobsak Pootrakool, Deputy Secretary-General to the PM.  Economic management for the rest of the year is challenging, given that tourism is unlikely to recover and global trade remaining tepid.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1918420/q3-rebound-eyed-from-relief-boost
• The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) reported that Ford and Mazda are planning to lay off workers.  Mitsubishi had already launched a voluntary redundancy campaign, while Nissan will not extend the contracts of 300 workers out of 1,900.  The automotive and auto parts industries employ about 750,000 workers. 
• Car Sales in April is likely to be the lowest level in 10 years, totalling 33,000 units.  Car sales volume this year is expected to fall by 50 percent YoY.
• The FTI will propose to the government a car trade-in scheme to boost domestic car demand. Under proposed scheme, the government will encourage motorists to purchase new, eco-friendly vehicles and turn in cars over 20 years old.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1918332/fti-floats-trade-in-scheme-for-cars

ASEAN/World:

• South Korean Ambassador discussed with Deputy PM Somkid yesterday. South Korean Ambassador has asked Thailand to remove the country from communicable disease country category. The removal would ease travel restriction measures for Korean businesses to come operate and invest in Thailand.—Thai Post

Headline summary as of 14th May 2020

News

• Updates related to COVID-19:
  • Today, Thailand reports one newly confirmed cases, total confirmed cases at 3,018 cases. Out of the total cases, 2,850 have been discharged from the hospital, 112 are being hospitalized and the death toll is at 56.
  • With lesser numbers of newly COVID-19 confirmed cases, the CCSA will have a full plenary meeting tomorrow to ease more restrictions. It is expected that the curfew hours which is from 10pm-4am will be shortened to 11pm-4am. There are some requests for the government to stop the enforcement of emergency decree.—all media outlet
  • The Phuket governor is seeking permission from Bangkok to reopen its airport, ports and permanent road access to the mainland from this Saturday onwards after several days with no new Covid-19 infections detected.

• Yesterday, US ambassador met with Deputy PM and Commerce Minister Jurin. The US has discussed 4 points: 1. The US admired Thailand in dealing with COVID-19 2. The US supports businesses to move their production base to Thailand. 3. The US is happy to cooperate on Intellectual property Rights to get Thailand out of the US’ Watch List and 4. The US sees Thailand as a post-COVID-19 potential tourism market. Meanwhile, Mr Jurin has made four requests: 1. He has asked the US support to have US production sector to use Thai product more. 2. Asked the US to facilitate the product shipment from Thailand to the US. 3. Asked the US Ambassador to coordinate with Facebook, Instagram and Twitter to shut down illegal products pages/ accounts (i.e. face mask). And 4. Asked the US private sector to attend the Digital content exhibition at the Ministry of Commerce from 25-27 May. –all media outlet
• UNICEF has condemned the repeated rape of two girls, aged 14 and 16, allegedly with the involvement of their teachers and former students from a public school. The child protection organization criticized Thailand for failing to protect children.—Bangkok Post, Siam Rath, Khao Sod,

Politics

• Breaking: Media reports last night that the main ruling Palang Pracharat Party leader and the Finance Minister Uttama has resigned from the party leadership. Mr Uttama has been pressured during the last two weeks to resign as Party executives under Deputy PM cliques have resigned earlier. The party executives composes of 34 members, Deputy PM Prawit plan to have more than half to resign (which will automatically oust the Party leader and secretary-general out of the position) came short last week, and the PM stepped in to comfort Mr Uttama, assuring that he will serve in the same party positions and portfolio. Now, more than 20 executives (Deputy PM Prawit’s wing, Sam Mitr (Suriya and Somsak) and Thammanat) have resigned. The party will hold a convention to nominate a new set of executives prior to the prospective cabinet reshuffle after the passing of loan decree in June.—The Bangkok Insight, Khao Sod, Matichon,
  • However, Mr Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana, the party spokesperson and the secretary to the Finance Minister denied the news that Mr Uttama has resigned. There are no executives’ resignation as the news portrayed.–PostToday, Krungthep Turakij, Matichon, Daily News
• Ousted and self-exiled former PM Thaksin had in interview with BBC Thai about his view on COVID-19. –Thai Rath
• Yesterday, around 40 protestors gathered near Lumphini Park where late Major General Khattiya Sawasdipol, political activist for red-shirt protestors, was shot dead by a sniper 10 years ago. The organizer claimed to commemorate the disastrous event.—all media outlet
  • Today, police has apprehended the leader of the protest, accusing him of violating the emergency decree and risk the transmission of COVID-19. The police said they are seeking evidence and cannot reveal whether they are going to press charges against anyone.—Khao Sod
• Investigation has been launched on a military personnel after an Instagram picture of this soldier seated on the Speaker of the House went viral.—all media outlet
• An opinion piece on “Five things to watch for in post-lockdown politics”: student movements, government’s popularity, stability of the coalition government, opposition parties, and local elections.—Thai Enquirer
• An opinion piece on “’Call for truth’ has laser intensity, Analysis: Anti-govt movement gathering steam”. The media interviewed three political scientists to view this symbolic gesture and its political momentum.—Bangkok Post
• Former Ambassador James Wise’s article on Asialink, The University of Melbourne: COVID in Thailand: Failed and Foolhardy Predictions.

Business:

Recovery plans & Tourism

• The Thai government looks to cement the country’s position as an advanced medical hub in Asia, which aligns with the Thailand 4.0 strategy and has been underway prior to the pandemic outbreak.  In April, the Board of Investment (BOI) announced additional measures to draw investments into the medical industry.  For example, manufacturers that adjust existing production lines to manufacture medical devices or parts are exempted from import duties on machinery this year.  BOI reasons that Thailand’s proven capability in managing the pandemic, as well as local technological capabilities and strong existing supply chains will accelerate investments in medical innovations and biosciences.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1917888/medical-hub-ambitions

• Dhanin Chearavanont, Senior Chairman of Charoen Pokphand (CP) Group, urges the government to ease the lockdown and position Thailand as a ‘safe haven’ to attract high-spending tourists.  Thailand could become a leader in this market by making the affluent tourists feel confident that staying Thailand is safer than their own countries.  The challenge is to minimise the risks associated with opening up the country to foreign arrivals.

• In response to PM Prayut’s letter, CP has pledged to spend over 700 million Baht to fund projects to help vulnerable people.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1917576/cp-chief-pushes-tourism-reboot

• The Tourism and Sports Ministry (MoST) is aiming high for 100 million domestic trips year to  generate revenue worth 1.12 trillion Baht.  MoST is counting on local travels for government meetings and incentives, as well as trips taken by those who redirect their overseas travel plans to domestic travels.  Within this month, the Association of Domestic Travel will present domestic packages for state agencies.

• The Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) contends that achieving MoST’s target this year would be difficult because tourism-related activities during this quarter is on hold.  TCT also anticipates demand will remain sluggish until July.

• The number of domestic trips in Q1 of this year declined by 29.5 percent YoY to 24.1 million trips.  Likewise, the income generated is down by 33.7 percent, totalling 180 billion Baht.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1917692/tourism-goal-raises-eyebrows

Others

• The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperative will start paying the 5,000 Baht cash assistance to farmers tomorrow (15 May).  MoAC plans to pay a total of 50 billion Baht to 1 million farmers daily.  Source:  https://ch3thailandnews.bectero.com/news/187933

• Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Cooperative, Mananya Thaises, is pushing with the move to limit the use of glyphosate, despite the banning of paraquat and chlorpyrifos coming into effect on 1 June.  MoAC is also drafting a regulation mandating that manufacturers of hazardous chemicals must receive the ISO9001 and ISO 14001 certifications and their laboratories the ISO/IEC17025 certifications in two years.  Also in the pipeline are plans to limit, if complete banning is infeasible, the use of other chemicals that are deemed toxic to farmers and consumers.  Source:  https://www.thansettakij.com/content/433122

• Mitsubishi group of companies is offering a voluntary redundancy package to full-time workers who have worked with the company from 1-35 years and must not be over 54 years old.  The maximum compensation paid is 35 months.  Workers who will retire this year are not entitled to the package.  The group said underperforming car sales as a result of the pandemic has necessitated it to downsize its employees. Source:  https://www.nationtv.tv/main/content/378776384

• A royal decree drafted to postpone the enforcement of most sections in Personal Data Protection Act (PDPA) by a year will be tabled before the cabinet’s approval next week.  The legislation will defer most of the chapters in the PDPA act, except for chapters 1 and 4, which involve the appointment of the members sitting in the Personal Data Protection Committee and the establishment of the Office of the Personal Data Protection Committee.  Source:  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1917660/pdpa-delay-decree-going-before-cabinet

Australia

• Australian Ambassador gave an interview on Good Morning ASEAN radio programme this morning on Australian government’s response to COVID-19 and the Australian-Thai relations.–MCOT