Headlines summary as of 17 January 2022

News

Newly confirmed cases	Total Cases	Death toll	Hospitalised/ intensive care patients
6,929 (209 from aboard; 7 from prisons), excluding 1,740 ATKs	2,331,414 (last seven days: 53,932)	13 (last seven days: 103)	82,210/ 533
Total vaccination	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
109,542,145  (+172,437)	51,809,191 (+14,305)	47,579,865 (+28,791)	10,153,089 (+129,341)

• Thailand has recorded the first two deaths from the emerging Omicron strain. The CCSA deputy spokesperson said that the first 86-year-old lady in the Southern province of Songkhla had the Alzheimer condition; the other was a 84-year-old lady with critical lung cancer condition. The spokesperson ensured the people that the strain is not as deadly as early strains.—Thai Rath

Politics                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

• The results of the by-elections is out with Democrat being able to secure the two seats:
  • In the by-election in Chumphon, the Democrat candidate won over the PPRP candidate by 48,981 to 31,866 votes.
  • In the by-election in Songkhla, the Democrat could secure 45,576 over 40,531 votes from PPRP.
  • The results of the Top 4 comparing the current and last election back in 2019 are as followed:

Chumphon
Year/ Party	Democrat	PPRP	Future Forward/ Move Forward	Kla Party
2019	42,683	32,219	10,347	n/a
2022	48,981	32,229	3,520	7,591
Difference	+6,298	+10	-7,097	+7,591
Songkhla
Year/ Party	Democrat	PPRP	Future Forward/ Move Forward	Kla Party
2019	28,465	19,317	11,966	n/a
2022	45,576	40,531	5,427	1,350
Difference	+17,111	+21,214	-6,539	+1,350

• There have been reactions from all side of the political aisles on the result of the election:
  • The secretary-general of the PPRP accused the Democrat for vote-buying, saying that he did not expect to see such a sinister ploy from the Democrat party which always appear to be clean. The party campaigner said that the election is far from over and that PPRP is going to file the corruption allegation to the Election Commissioner.—Krungthep Turakij
  • The PPRP spokesperson said that the PPRP leader congratulated the Democrat Party candidates for winning the election and called for the coalition unity in administering the country forward.—Krungthep Turakij
  • The Labour minister and anti-PPRP secretary-general said that the remarks by Captain Thammanat during the last days of the campaign had an adverse effects on the by-election in Songkhla. The anti-Thammanat figure who was appointed as the director of the by-election in Songkhla, said that the remarks by his party chief campaigner involve looking down the people in the constituency.–Matichon
  • Democrat spokesperson said that the election result reflected that the people in the South remains faithful with the oldest party and voiced his dissonance against some of the remarks from some certain political party. The party spokesperson said that they are ready to place charges against any political party which are trying to make the Democrat Party losing their credibility.–Matichon
• The secretary-general of the main Opposition Pheu Thai Party said that the party is ready to file a censure debate motion (without a vote of no-confidence) against the government by mid-February. The main thing for the coalition to be grilled is the government handling of the cost of living and the mismanagement of the Omicron strain.-Krungthep Turakij  
• The former technocrat team of the PPRP party and government announced that they are going to hold a press conference about the establishment of new political party on 19 January. Two of four members of the so-called ‘Fantastic Four’ team: former Finance Minister and PPRP leader and former Energy Minister and PPRP secretary-general are reportedly going to set up a new party called “Building Thailand Future”. The team was purged out of the PPRP right after the pandemic hit.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic

• The NGO ‘BIOTHAI’ proclaimed that Thai pork is currently the most expensive in the world, with the farmgate price of 110 Baht/kg compared to the US’s 33 Baht/kg, Vietnam’s 60-76 Baht/kg and China’s 89 Baht/kg.  This results from the government’s attempt to conceal the African Swine Outbreak in pig farms for 2 years, which has caused a severe undersupply of pork and has incurred 100 billion Baht worth of loss to the industry.  If Thailand were to accede the CPTPP, Thai farmers would be further taken advantage of.  If the government resorts to importing pork, it might be to the benefit of a certain Thai conglomerate that recently acquired a sizeable business in Canada.  Source:  Prachachart Turakij
• Ministry of Commerce has established a system to monitor the inflow of imported goods into Thailand following the implementation of RCEP since 1 January 2022.  Should an irregularity be detected, MoC insisted it is ready to implement Safeguard and Anti-Dumping measures to protect Thai businesses, in addition to offering remedies through the FTA Fund.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij
• The 4^th phase of the government’s popular co-payment scheme, Khon La Krueng , will open for registration on Valentine’s Day (14 February 2022) and will be operational on 21 February 2022 to reduce people’s living cost.  The scheme’s details has yet to be finalised.  The scheme is funded by the 500 billion Baht loan, together with the leftover sum from the scheme’s 3^rd phase worth 10 billion Baht.  Source:   Khao Sod Bangkok Post
• Some 20-25 percent of domestic and international tourists have cancelled or postponed their hotel reservations due to measures imposed by the Thai government to curb the Omicron outbreak.  Occupancy rate in January is estimated to decline to 20 percent as domestic tourists have also refrained from travelling.  Thai Hotel Association (THA) forecasted that tourism revenue in Q1 2022 would decline by 50 percent. THA urges the government to prioritise jumpstarting domestic tourism by launching the domestic tourism subsidy campaign Rao Tiew Duay Kan phase 4 and to resume the Test & Go system as soon as possible.  Several airlines have also cancelled their commercial and chartered flights to Thailand throughout January, including Australia’s Jet Star.  Source:  Thansettakij
• The Airlines Association of Thailand (AAT) hopes the government resumes the Test & Go scheme soon to support tourism recovery.  The scheme’s suspension has affected tourist inflow as they have to choose between sandbox areas in Phuket, Krabi, Phangnga and Koh Samui, or opt for quarantine entry via Bangkok. Regarding the 300-baht tourism tax that is expected to be included in airfares, AAT said further discussion is needed with state agencies.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Thailand is facing a labour shortage crisis, fuelled by a decline in birth rate, ageing population and the pandemic that has driven away migrant workers.  The tourism industry is seeing a 50 percent drop in the workforce, with those who were furloughed exiting the industry altogether.  According to the Employers Confederation of Thai Trade and Industry, Thailand’s unemployment rate has soared to 4.58 percent, the highest in a decade in the last 2 years.  Source:  Bangkok Post

The government is inching towards imposing taxes on some products and ending tax waivers to boost revenue as the pandemic took a toll on state revenue collection.  In FY 2021 the government collected net revenue of 2.36 trillion baht, falling short of its target by 11.5 percent or 307 billion baht.  As such the government is considering imposing tax on cryptocurrency and share sales.  It has also started to collect e-service tax from foreign e-service operators since September last year.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 14 January 2022

News

Newly confirmed cases	Total Cases	Death toll	Hospitalised/ intensive care patients
8,158 (242 from aboard; 11 from prisons), excluding 2,760 ATKs	2,300,457 (last seven days: 55,839)	15 (last seven days: 99)	74,795/ 510
Total vaccination	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
108,313,948 (+542,689)	51,694,907 (+52,332)	47,301,137 (+128,885)	9,317,904 (+361,472)

• The Chinese Embassy’s political officers brought 2,000 survival packs values more than 1 million THB to people in the north-eastern province of Nakhon Ratchasima affected by the pandemic. 
• Dialogue between the government and Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), the main rebel group fighting an insurgency in Thailand’s Muslim deep south, have resumed. The discussion between the two parties took place on Monday and Tuesday in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, the first contact since the process was halted due to the coronavirus pandemic. Dialogue restarted in 2019, leading to formal peace talks brokered by Malaysia in early 2020, but those were derailed by the pandemic.–Reuters
  • The deputy government spokesperson said that the Prime Minister is pleased with the results of the discussion which would lead to the peace of the areas.–Krungthep Turakij

Politics

• The Chinese Embassy’s political officers brought 2,000 survival packs values more than 1 million THB to people in the northeastern province of Nakhon Ratchasrima affected by the pandemic. The Deputy head of the main-ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) said that the Chinese Communist Party would like to give assistance to the Thai people via PPRP. The hand-over was conducted at the Parliament.–Matichon
• The alliance which brought about the current administration are showing signs of crumbles in the by-elections:
  • Thaworn Senniam, former Deputy Transport Minister and main figure of the PDRC, gave an interview expressing his strategic ambiguity on whether to throw his support behind the Democrat or PPRP candidate. The political gain in the South was stripped of his MP status due to the PDRC protest-related case verdict and have left the Democrat Party since.–Inside Thailand
  • Hyper-royalist military doctor Rienthong Nanna voiced his dissonance against the PPRP in the by-election in Bangkok. The doctor threw his support behind a freshly-established royalist Thai Pakdi (Loyal Thai) Party and said that PPRP has been protecting corrupted politicians in the party. The staunch supporter of the government was in a quarrel with the incumbent PPRP MP in the constituency whose court verdict led to the by-election.–Matichon
• The highly-anticipated PPRP candidate for the Bangkok Metropolitan Governor denied the reports that she will run for the gubernatorial seat. Nualphan Lamsam said that she has no interest in running for the next election, but did not decline she has an interest in politics. The Thai football national team manager said that if opportunity emerges, it might be the divine sign and she might take it.–Matichon
• Panusaya ‘Rung’, student-led protest leader, has been granted a longer temporary bail term until mid-June with conditions of not participating in any protest and not doing anything which will affect the monarchy reputation.–Krungthep Turakij

Economic

• Japan’s JETRO signed 2 MoUs with Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor Office and Board of Investment to boost Japanese investment and develop resilient supply chains in various industries, including through BCG activities.  DPM Supattanapong convened a meeting with Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Koichi Hagiuda, discussing about potential cooperation on sustainable development by synergising Japan’s green growth strategy and Thailand’s BCG economic model.  Japan reiterated it wants to maintain Thailand as its key production hub.  Sources:  Bangkok PostKhao Sod
• The Thai Chamber of Commerce presented 6 opportunities and challenges that Thai entrepreneurs must adapt to after RCEP comes into effect on 1 January.  TCC also continued to express its support for Thailand to join CPTPP to keep abreast with modern trade rules and regulations.  Source:  Thai Rath
• Commerce Ministry (MoC) and Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba launched The Pandemic Recovery Support Program.  The program aims for hundreds of Thai SMEs to undergo training on B2B e-commerce via the ‘Alibaba.com Seller Training E-Course’ (ASTE), which is free for new suppliers of Alibaba.com.  MoC expects the program to promote Thai exports by capacitating Thai entrepreneurs to tap into the global B2B market worth USD23.9 trillion and rebound from the pandemic.  Source:  Bangkok PostPositioning Magazine
• DPM Anutin chaired the first meeting of a sub-committee on Thai – Laos – Chinese railway yesterday.  The goal of the meeting is to design a logistics plan to increase trade through the railway, given that border trade from China through to Nongkhai province has increased from 116,552 to 304,119 tonnes since the railway became operational on 2 December 2021.  The railway also shortened the logistic time to 1 day and reduces cost by 25 percent.  Source:  Manager Online
• The government is mulling a faster rollout of the 4^th phase of the “Khon La Khrueng” co-payment subsidy scheme to stimulate spending. DPM Supattanapong also said he will keep an eye on the issue of inflation.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Automotive Institution of Thailand signed a letter of intent with Japan’s JETRO, outlining a 1-year cooperation (2022-2023) to promote cooperation in developing modern­ automotive as well as to lay the foundation for the manufacturing of Electric Vehicle components in Thailand.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij

Headlines summary as of 13 January 2022

News

Newly confirmed cases	Total Cases	Death toll	Hospitalised/ intensive care patients
8,167 (239 from aboard; 12 from prisons), excluding 1,789 ATKs	2,300,457 (last seven days: 55,207)	14 (last seven days: 106)	70,594/ 520
Total vaccination	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
107,771,259 (+  499,355)	51,642,575 (+49,703)	47,172,252 (+116,093)	8,956,432 (+333,559)

• The CCSA spokesperson has concerns over the spike of cases in the tourist prototype areas (blue), particularly in Nonthaburi and Pathum Thani. The two provinces saw the cases skyrocketed to be at three digits and rising.—Thai Rath
• Thai Enquirer got information from a senior official at the Ministry of Public Health that Thailand’s “Test and Go” travel scheme, which enabled vaccinated visitors to visit the country without quarantine, is unlikely to return until the middle of 2022 due to the emerging Omicron strains.—Thai Enquirer
• Chinese Ambassador made a courtesy call to Deputy PM Gen Prawit and have discussed several issues, including the acceptance of Thai students back to China.–Matichon

Politics

• Thailand’s cabinet has backed a plan to buy four American fighter jets starting in the next fiscal year with a budget of 13.8 billion baht ($413.67 million) set aside for the procurement.
• Thailand’s currently has 12 JAS-39 Gripen fighter jets made by Sweden’s Saab (SAABb.ST) and dozens of American F-16 and F-5 jets, some of which have been in operation since the late 1980s.–Reuters

• A security agency has come up with the idea of refurbishing the Government House fence to be as high as 4 meters in a bid to beef up its security.–Matichon
• The Criminal Court has extended the bail of Panusaya ‘Rung’—a student-led protest leader–until 25 May 2022. She has been granted the extended bail on the royal defamation case that she wore crop top costume at Siam Paragon.—Thai Rath

Economic

• The government eyes collecting 300 Baht from all tourists entering Thailand, starting from 1 April this year.  Revenue from this tax will go into the National Tourism Promotion Fund, of which 50 Baht will be used for tourist insurance coverage in case of accident and death, while the rest is for infrastructure improvement.  The tax will be added to the airfare, the process of which is expected to be finalised in March.  The government expects the tax to generate revenue worth 800 billion Baht from the 5 million visitors forecasted for this year.  The implementation of the tax was postponed from its initial date of January 2021, but was postponed.  Sources:  ThaiPBS  Krungthep Turakij
• The Thai Hotels Association proposed that the 300 Baht tourism tax has to be put off until at least 2023, when the sector is rebuilt from the ground.  The Association reasoned that the tax will have a psychological impact on tourists and will adversely impact the already fragile tourism industry.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The Revenue Department plans to finalise the discussion on cryptocurrency capital gains tax with stakeholders on 20 January and aims to announce details on tax collection process and tax rates later this month.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Despite the rising objections against the collection of capital gain tax on cryptocurrency trading and financial transaction tax on share sales, the Ministry of Finance still insists it will go ahead and implement both types of taxes.  The Revenue Department has established a team featuring representatives from Revenue Department, Digital Thai Asset Association and other relevant agencies to study potential methods in collecting these taxes.  Asia Plus company estimates that the taxes will earn the government 21.3 billion Baht of revenue.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij
• The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking is maintaining GDP growth forecast for 2022 at 3-4.5 percent on the scenario that the government will not impose the lockdown and that tourism recovers in Q2.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 12 January 2022

News

Newly confirmed cases	Total Cases	Death toll	Hospitalised/ intensive care patients
7,681 (277 from aboard; 12 from prisons), excluding 2,048 ATKs	2,292,290 (last seven days: 52,815)	22 (last seven days: 103)	66,286/ 480
Total vaccination	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
107,271,904 (+513,208 )	51,592,872 (+49,784)	47,056,159 (+  133,047)	8,622,873 (+330,377)

• In a bid to curb the surging price of rapid ATK test kits, the government is ready to sell 3 million kits at low price. The government spokesperson said that the Thai GPO is prepared to put 3 million ATK kits at its outlets at the price of 35 THB per kit from 14 January and will start the online purchase from 17 January.—Thai Rath
• The cabinet has agreed to sign an MoU on Energy Partnership with Japan. The PM will preside over the MoU signing between Japanese and Thai Energy Ministries on 13 January 2022. The MoU will provide framework on cooperation, including the nuclear energy and carbon-reduction technology.—Prachachat Turakij
• The cabinet has approved the amendment of Interior Ministry laws on the application for the Thai nationality as followed:
  • The venues to apply for the Thai nationality are set at the Department of Provincial Administration for anyone in Bangkok; provincial authority in other provinces and Embassies or Consulate-Generals when overseas;
  • The duration of the application consideration will be within 90 days for application filed in Thailand; and 120 days for applications filed overseas.
  • The applicants must have Thai language competencies or certificate from the Thai Education Ministry that the applicant has received Thai education no lesser than elementary level.
  • The fees for the applications have been doubled.–Matichon

Politics

• The surging price of pork has turned politically perilous as Opposition is starting to bombard the government for its negligence of the African Swine Fever in the Kingdom:
  • The main opposition Pheu Thai Party is requesting the government to be transparent in the timeline of the spread of the fever in Thailand. The party cited the letter by Veterinary Deans to the authority calling for action with no response. The opposition is eyeing to discuss this issue in the House and will submit the request to Anti-Corruption Commission to investigate the issue.—Prachachat Turakij
  • The cabinet has agreed to allocate budget to curb with the effects of the fever. Prachachat Turakij pointed out that this is the fourth time that the government has allocate budget to deal with the ASF. The first budget dated back to 219 with the total of almost 1 billion THB.—Prachachat Turakij
  • The PM has ordered the probe into the issue on which organization has impeded the government to take action into the fever issue.–Matichon
• The by-elections in Southern Thailand seem to be yet the other intra-coalition conflicts between the main coalition Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP) and the Democrat:
  • The secretary-general of the PPRP went down to help the campaign of their candidate in the Chumphon election this Sunday. It is reported that the PPRP leader General Prawit will go down to the province to help their candidate in the campaign.—Krungthep Turakij
  • Meanwhile, the Democrat deputy spokesperson said that the party leader will go down to Songkla tonight to help its candidate in the campaign.—Krungthep Turakij
  • The PM who concurrently serve as the Defense Minister has instructed the armed forces to remain neutral in all the by-elections as there have been earlier reports by the Democrat Party on the meddling of armed forces’ personnel in the areas.—Prachachat Turakij
• After his vaccine record was released online with some speculation of preferential treatment of getting vaccines earlier than others, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit the head of the Progressive Movement clarified that he got the daily leftover vaccine. The opposition figure said he will file a case against certain individuals and state agencies which attempted to undermine his reputation.—Thai Rath
• The latest publication from ANU on the discourse of Thai foreign policy ideology ‘Bamboo Diplomacy’ (or bending with the wind) is now available at https://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/n9464/pdf/book.pdf

Economic:

Cabinet’s Decisions, 11 January

• approved the allocation of 574.11 million Baht from the FY2022 emergency central budget to prevent the outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in pigs in 56 provinces.  The budget will be spent on providing compensations for pigs that are culled as a result of the ASF outbreak.  Source:  Prachachart Turakij

Supply Chain Relocation

• Murata Manufacturing is among the Japanese tech suppliers who is cutting their dependence on China as the U.S.-China standoff deepens.  The world’s largest capacitor maker and an iPhone parts supplier, Murata said in November that it will open a new plant in Thailand in October 2023. In an interview with Nikkei Asia, Murata President Norio Nakajima said the new plant will eventually be expanded to become as large as the one in Wuxi, near Shanghai, where Murata produces multilayer ceramic capacitors for consumer electronics.  Source: Nikkei Asia

Others

• Ministry of Agriculture’s confirmation that there is an African Swine Fever outbreak at a pig farm in Nakhon Pathom has shattered Thailand’s dream of becoming the No.1 pork exporter in ASEAN.  MoA forecasted that ASF outbreak will incur a loss of 16 billion Baht on Thai pork export and 66.6 billion Baht on animal feed business, while the government’s banning of pork export will incur a 6 billion Baht loss.  Pig farmers have slammed the government for concealing the ASF outbreak for the past 3 years.  Source:  Prachachart Turakij
• Commerce Ministry has imposed a freeze on chicken prices for 6 months (Jan – June 2022), capping the farmgate price of live chickens at 33.50 Baht per kg; slaughtered chicken from 60-70 Baht.   Chicken producers will also be asked to increase productivity within 45 days to boost supply.  MoC is also working to maintain domestic egg supplies at reasonable prices.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Finance Ministry’s proposal to collect Financial Transaction Tax at a rate of 0.1 percent on share sales valued at 1 million Baht up, first proposed in 1991, is meeting strong oppositions from stakeholders such as the Stock exchange of Thailand and Federation of Thai Capital Marketing Organization (FETCO) members, brokers and investors.  FETCO estimated that the Financial Transaction Tax will decrease the capital market’s liquidity by 30 percent.  Others assert it will reduce market trading volume by half as it will disincentivise foreigners from investing.  FETCO will convene a meeting on 13 January to draft an objection letter to MoF.  However, FETCO agrees with the implementation of Capital Gain Tax, particularly on profits made by foreign investors.  Sources:  Krungthep Turakij
• The President of Sansiri property developer, Srestha Thaveesin, has called out for the government to refrain from imposing a 15 percent capital gains tax on profits from cryptocurrency trading.  Although number of cryptocurrency trading accounts grew by 2-3 folds in the past year alone, it remains in its infancy stage and the government should look to facilitate its growth.  Therefore this warrants it the same treatment as the capital market, which was launched 40 years ago but is to date exempted from capital gains tax.   Source:  Krungthep Turakij
• The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) unveiled its 2022-2024 strategic plan under the concept “Connecting opportunities x Transforming possibilities”.  The goal is to revolutionise the capital market to foster growth and sustainability.  Among the highlights is its plan to launch this year the Live Exchange; a funding platform for SMEs and startups, as well as the Thai Digital Assets Exchange (TDX); a market for the exchange of digital assets which is set to be fully operational in Q3 2022.  SET will also support companies to pursue ESG fundraising.  Sources:  Bangkok Post Prachachart Turakij
• At the Meet the Press event, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) Governor, Dr Setthaput, expects the Thai economy to remain fragile this year and that recovery will be K-Shape and uneven.  The economy will not return to pre-pandemic level until Q1 of 2023 due to its over-reliance on tourism and export.  BOT will address 4 downside risks going forward, namely 1) stabilising banking system in the midst of Omicron outbreak which is likely to affect the economy at least until 1H of this year 2) inflation, which is not expected to hinder economic growth 3) prevent NPL Cliff – BOT will soon announce a joint venture asset management company to address this issue and 4) monitoring global economic trends.  Further challenges to the Thai financial system are the Digital and Green Economy; issues which the BOT will address in its its Financial Landscape Consultation Paper to be released on 2 February.  Source:  Thansettakij Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 11 January 2022

News

Newly confirmed cases	Total Cases	Death toll	Hospitalised/ intensive care patients
7,133 (411 from aboard; 45 from prisons), excluding 1,545 ATKs	2,284,609 (last seven days: 49,033)	12 (last seven days: 100)	61,974/ 492
Total vaccination	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
106,758,696 (+ 283,574 )	51,543,088 (+ 28,297)	46,923,112 (+ 69,514)	8,292,496 (+185,763)

• The CCSA spokesperson said that they made predictions on the daily new COVID cases as high as 20,000 cases by the end of January and as many as 30,000 cases by the end of February. The CCSA affirmed that they have put measures, including home isolation and community isolation, in place to curb the spike.—Thai Rath
  • This is in line with the Public Health earlier prediction:
    • In the best-case scenario, the country would see about 10,000 new infections as early as late January; new infections would peak in late January or early February. At best, the outbreak would be brought under control in one or two months.
    • In the worst-case scenario, in which no added precautions are taken, or if the public refuses to comply with disease control measures, new infections could hit 30,000 daily. New infections would not peak until early March and it would then take a further 3-4 months for health authorities to control the situation.
• The Public health Ministry said that despite high numbers of cases, Omicron strain is not as deadly as the Delta strain and they are preparing to make COVID-19 as ‘endemic’ within this year.—Thai Rath
• In the midst of the heightened pork price due to the outbreak of African swine fever, authority denied the accusations that it has covered up the outbreak. Earlier, a consortium of deans from 14 veterinary institutions including Kasetsart University said they had sent a letter to Department of Livestock in early December informing of the disease discovery.–Reuters

Politics

• The ruling Democrat Party is witnessing the other sign of weakening as its former Bangkok MP has left the party to join freshly established ‘Thai Sarng Thai’ Party. The former MP from Eastern Bangkok said that the area is under Sudarat, Thai Sarng Thai leader, sphere of influence and has been known Sudarat for quite some times.—Krungthep Turakij
• The spokesperson of the Progressive Movement gave an interview defending the reports that Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit got the privileges of getting the AZ vaccines at the peak of the 4^th wave of pandemic in July 2021. The spokeswoman said that despite the opposition figure criticism against the complications against the production of AstraZeneca vaccines, Thanathorn did not go against the vaccine per se. The Movement also questions the political motivation of the authority to leak such information.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic:

RCEP

• While RCEP offers numerous benefits for Thai exporters, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) also cautioned them to prepare for competition from Chinese products.  This is partly the result of the Laos-Chinese railway which had facilitated an influx of Chinese products to enter Thailand through e-commerce as well as through legal and illegal channels.  FTI urged Thai manufacturers to raise the standards of their products to build confidence for domestic consumers and to enhance Thailand’s competitiveness.
• According to a study from Boston University’s Global Development Policy Centre, ASEAN’s trade deficit will increase following RCEP’s enforcement, with China, Japan and Korea being the 3 countries that will benefit from RCEP given that they have no prior FTAs.  Source:  Thansettakij
• Ministry of Commerce advised Thai exporters to utilise the ASEAN-Korea FTA and RCEP in order to benefit from preferential tariff available 90.7 percent of Thai exports.  For South Korea, RCEP will come into effect on 1 February.  South Korea is an emerging market, in which Thai export to South Korea saw a 39 percent increase from January – November 2021 compared to the same period in 2020.  Source:  Prachachart Turakij

Others

• Thailand eyes negotiating with the Lao and Chinese governments for logistic and freight transport cooperation through the Laos-China high-speed train, in the hope of boosting Thailand’s fresh fruit exports.  Currently, Thailand is allowed to transport into China only ore, rubber and cassava via the Chinese-Laos railway.  Commerce Minister Jurin said Thailand and China had drafted an MoU since late last year, wherein China will allow Thai fruits to be transported into China through 10 checkpoints.  Minister Jurin will negotiate with the Chinese Commercial Commissioner on this matter tomorrow.  The goal is to ensure the transport of Thai fruits in the coming harvesting season between March and May this year.  Sources:  Krungthep Turakij newspaper, 11 January 2021 Bangkok Post
• Industrial estates and factories have made contingency plans in preparation for the next outbreak of COVID-19 to ensure minimum disruption to manufacturing activities, such as Bubble and Seal and Factory Accommodation Isolation measures.  Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand remains confident that Thailand’s factories will be able contain the outbreak and affirmed that foreign investors remain unshaken by potential Omicron outbreak.  Source:  Krungthep Turakij
• Tourism Authority of Thailand’s Intelligence Centre revealed that the number of tourist arrivals into Thailand from Nov – Dec 2021 through the Thailand Pass system totalled 268,973.  However, the suspension of the Test & Go and Thailand Pass Program has dampened Thailand’s recovery prospect, as the Omicron variant outbreak had resulted in a 67 percent hotel cancellation in December 2021.  Moreover, almost half of the hotels that remained open in December 2021 are seeing revenue that is less than 30 percent compared to pre-pandemic level.  By January 2022, hotel occupancy rate is set to decline to around 33 percent compared to 37 percent in December 2021.  Source:  Prachachart Turakij
• Boston Consulting Group forecasted that the Thai hospitality business will see a gradual, U-shaped recovery lasting until 2024, starting with domestic leisure travel, while business travel will lag in recovery.  Yachting is one of very few travel segments that remain unfazed by the pandemic as tourists with high purchasing power have to assure their safety and opt for more private choices from luxury travel services.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Revenue Department expects to finalise the guideline for collecting capital gain tax on profits earned from cryptocurrency and digital asset trading within this month, with implementation slated for March 2022.  The Revenue Department plans to hold a public hearing to finalise the guideline on this tax collection.  Meanwhile, digital asset companies object to Revenue Dept’s plan to charge backdated tax of up to 2 years and urge the government to ensure that its regulation is modern enough to promote rather than hinder the rise of this industry.  Source:  Bangkok Post Krungthep Turakij newspaper, 11 January 2022
• Commerce Ministry said it has not approved of the raising of chicken meat and egg prices as announced by the Layers Chickens Association.  The Egg Board had set the ex-farm price of eggs at 3.44 Baht a piece and will pursue legal actions against price gouging.  Regarding the inflation in pork prices, Commerce Minister Jurin dismissed the possibility of importing pork to alleviate the supply shortage problem, saying the move needs thorough consideration.  Source:  Thai PBS  Bangkok Post
• Commerce Ministry is monitoring antigen test kit (ATK) prices to ensure they remain affordable amid the surge in Covid-19 infections.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Headlines summary as of 10 January 2022

News

Newly confirmed cases	Total Cases	Death toll	Hospitalised/ intensive care patients
7,926 (412 from aboard; 195 from prisons), excluding 1,423 ATKs	2,277,476 (last seven days: 44,911)	13 (last seven days: 100)	58,159/ 495
Total vaccination	1st dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (from 28 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (from 16 July)
106,475,122 (+138,885 )	51,514,791 (+12,766)	46,853,598 (+32,977)	8,106,733 (+ 93,142)

• The CCSA’s latest COVID restrictions has been on the Royal Gazette. The new measures include the three additional sandbox schemes. The new entry measures could be viewed via TAT News
  • Bangkok Metropolitan Administration has also issued its latest COVID restrictions:
    • For alcoholic beverages served during dining-in, the BMA has limited the serving hours to be until 9.00pm.
    • The entertainment complexes (pubs, clubs and karaoke bars) aiming to reopen will need to be refurbished and sought permission by 15 January 2022.—Krungthep Turakij

Politics

• Nida Poll has issued the opinion poll on politics, economic and pandemic situation:
  • As for the 2022 political situation, in comparison to that of 2021:
    • 46.34% thinks that it will be as chaotic;
    • 34.72% thinks that it will become more chaotic;
    • 10.04% thinks that it will be less chaotic.
  • As for the people opinion towards PM Prayut:
    • 45.36% thinks that the PM will remain in power in 2022;
    • 11.47% thinks that there will be a House Dissolution;
    • 7.85% thinks that there will be a cabinet reshuffle;
    • 6.64% thinks that the PM will be out due to the 8-yearit tenure;
  • As for the people opinion towards student-led protestors:
    • 46.64% thinks that there will remain protests;
    • 14.34% thinks that the protests will become more violent;
    • 12% thinks that the protestors will become weaker;
• Former Election Commissioner said he is reaching out to other political parties to garner their support on the campaign to strip the Senate from their power in voting for the PM. The former EC-turned-commentator Somchai Srisutthiyakorn is leading the bid to collect 50,000 signatures in amending the constitution which grant the unprecedented power to the Senate in voting for the premiere.—Krungthep Turakij
• The freshly appointed main opposition Pheu Thai Party said that the party aims to secure 15 million votes which Thaksin party used to gain during its heyday. Securing the votes would mean that Pheu Thai Party could get the party a landslide and get over the constitutional impediment in becoming the government.—Krungthep Turakij
• Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, professor of Political Science, gave an exclusive interview with Matichon on 2022 political scenarios which could witness a potential House Dissolution. The political expert who did a research on younger generation’s political perspectives said that even though there is 70% of youth who is for Liberal Democracy, 15% of the youth wants to have tough leader. Interestingly, the research has showed that youth shares more political view with older member of their family than expected, the political Faultline is not between generations as many might think, but a clash between younger generation and Conservative elites.–Matichon

ASEAN/ World

• Krungthep Turakij has pointed out the high number of staff participants of 2022 Cobra Gold operation in Thailand as having regional ramification. The media reported that there will be more than 10,000 troops participating in the operation and pointed out the timing of the operation in February which is considered a dry season in Myanmar. The season will be the time when the Tatmadaw will severely crush the ethnic minority armed groups along the Thai-Myanmar border. The commentators concluded that considering the size of the operation and more visits by high-ranking US military, this would mean that Bangkok remains crucial for Washington in regional affairs.—Krungthep Turakij

Economic:

RCEP

• PM Prayut has instructed relevant agencies to promote and facilitate the private sector and entrepreneurs to fully benefit from RCEP since its enforcement on 1 January 2022.  Source:  Thai Government News
• Dr Aat from University of Thai Chamber of Commerce said Thailand will face 6 challenges as RCEP enters into force, comprising 1) businesses need to adapt to more competitors as other countries have increased market access to Thailand 2) develop Thai products to meet the standard of each member country 3) develop the rules and regulations to prepare for the rise of cross-border e-commerce 4) implement stringent measures to screen imported products 5) promote Thai SMEs to use local content and 6) prepare for an influx of agricultural goods from 14 countries.  RCEP is expected to benefit mainly China, Japan and South Korea, while ASEAN will lose its trade advantages.  Sources:  Thansettakij
• A recent report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) revealed that RCEP will revitalise Asia Pacific from the pandemic as well as enhance trade resilience.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Others

• Ministry of Finance does not expect the Omicron variant outbreak to have strong impacts on the Thai economy as there is no lockdown.  Economists forecast that if the outbreak is prolonged into Q2, the low tourism number would start to affect GDP figures.  Federation of Thai Tourism anticipates that the suspension of Test & Go scheme would cause tourism revenue to decline by 50 percent even though the government has added 3 provinces (Surat Thani’s Koh Samui, Koh Phangan and Koh Tao; Krabi and Phangnga to the tourism Sandbox scheme.  The 3 provinces are also asking the government to introduce the Andaman Sandbox scheme wherein tourists could travel within the 3 provinces in the first 7 nights of arrival.  Sources:  Krungthep Turakij
• Finance Ministry has instructed Custom Department to revise the import tariff regime for Electric Vehicles (EVs) to provide a level playing field for all imported EVs.  Meanwhile, the EV Board has yet to submit to the cabinet the Electric Vehicle package as it awaits for input from Energy Ministry, Interior Ministry and BOI.  Sources:  TNN Thailand Bangkok Post
• The EEC has entered its second phase of investment plan (2022-2026) with the goal of attracting 2.2 trillion Baht through investments in infrastructure projects worth 200 billion Baht, as well as into S-Curve industries and BCG worth 400 billion Baht annually.  Investments in the EEC are expected average at 500 billion Baht annually from 2022-2026, while investment in the EEC in 4 years (2018-2021) was 1.7 trillion Baht.  Of this figure, 80 percent is from private investment and 20 percent from public investment. The EEC’s contribution will enable Thai GDP to grow by 5 percent annually.  Furthermore, the EEC is envisaged to help Thailand escape the middle income trap by 2029 and will become a core investment destination in Thailand over the next 5 years.  Sources:  Prachachart Turakij Thai Government News  Bangkok Post
• Ministry of Commerce is continuing with its campaign to sell pork at a discounted price of 150 Baht per kg at some 667 MoC outlets nationwide.  Pork price has soared to 160-200 Baht per kg and MoC is continuing to monitor prices of 231 items (208 products and 23 services) to prevent the spiralling of inflation despite imposing regulations that ban the export of pork for 3 months.  Sources:  Prachachart Turakij   Bangkok Post  Bangkok Post
• The price of chicken eggs has gone up by 0.20 Baht to 3 Baht per egg in response to rising cost of animal feed and shortage of hens to breed large-size eggs (eggs no.3, 4 and 5).  The price of chicken has also gone up by 1-2 Baht per kg in Chonburi province, which is expected to continue well into Chinese New Year (February).  Source:  Thai PBS
• With another 74,780 nightlife industry workers receiving their 5,000 baht in assistance pay from the Social Security Office (SSO) last week, almost all such workers affected by the government’s Covid-19 restrictions have been compensated, according to the Labour Ministry.  The aid payment began on Dec 29, targeting 121,431 workers of night entertainment venues shut by the government as part of its Covid-19 containment efforts.  Source:  Bangkok Post