Headlines summary as of 28 February 2022

News

Newly confirmed cases	Total Cases	Death toll	Hospitalised/ intensive care patients
22,311 Domestic +24,765 Abroad+167	2,8191,927 ( since January 2021)	42	216,645
Total vaccination	1st dose vaccine recipients (28 Jan -27 Feb)	2nd dose vaccine recipients (28 Jan -27 Feb)	3rd dose vaccine recipients (28 Jan -27 Feb)
122,779,134(+305,763)	53,537,245 (+21,180 yesterday)   77.0 %	49,718,639 (+11,360 yesterday)   71.5 %	20,312,786 (+73,800 yesterday)   29.2%

  Sources : Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) and Department of Control 

Politics

• Prime Minister,Prayut Chan-o-cha has vowed to stay on as premier to complete the government’s term in March next year, says a source in the Defence Ministry. Another source confirmed the premier has no plan to call an early election by dissolving the House and thus escape the no-confidence debate which the opposition is preparing to launch against the government in May when parliament reconvenes. Bangkokpost
• Former Prime Minister, Yingluck Shinnawatra, who is in exile after 2014 coup launched her first Facebook live program ‘ how are you today ?’  saying she was concerned with the citizens on their lives during covid-19 and the raising of public debts.She  also asked Gen.Prayut, the current PM whether he will have enough courage to encounter her face-to-face after he overthrew her power from the successful coup in 2014 Khaosod

Thailand’s movement on  Russia-Ukraine conflict

Statement from Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs  and ASEAN Foreign Ministers’

[24 February] Thailand’s Statement on the Situation in Ukraine

• Thailand has been following developments in Ukraine and especially the escalation of tensions in Europe with deep concern.
• We support ongoing efforts to find a peaceful settlement to the situation through dialogue. MinistryofForeignAffairs

[26 February] ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Statement on the Situation in Ukraine

1. The ASEAN Foreign Ministers are deeply concerned over the evolving situation and armed hostilities in Ukraine. We call on all relevant parties to exercise maximum restraint and make utmost efforts to pursue dialogues through all channels, including diplomatic means to contain the situation, to de-escalate tensions, and to seek peaceful resolution in accordance with international law, the principles of the United Nations Charter and the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia.
2. We believe that there is still room for a peaceful dialogue to prevent the situation from getting out of control. For peace, security, and harmonious co-existence to prevail, it is the responsibility of all parties to uphold the principles of mutual respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and equal rights of all nations. MinistryofForeignAffairs

Thais live in Ukraine

• The Thai embassy in Warsaw ,  Poland  arranged the evacuation of 99 Thais from Ukraine, while approximately 47 reached Lviv, the largest city in western Ukraine on before transferring to Warsaw today.

All Thais will then will be returning to Thailand for safety afterwards. However, there are still around 100 Thais who remain confined to their homes or accommodation due to security lockdowns in a number of other cities, including Mykolayiv and Kharkiv, according to the announcement on the embassy’s Facebook page. ThaiEmbassyinWarsaw

Ukrainians live in Thailand

• Meanwhile in Bangkok yesterday, Dozens of Ukrainians in Thailand hold a rally to protest Russia’s invasion of their homeland, alongside protesters around the world. Joined by Thais and other foreign nationals, they march peacefully from Lumpini Park to Benjakitti Park. KhaosodEnglish

Impact on Thailand’s economy

Analysis From KBank research

• Head of Capital Markets Research at Kasikornbank (KBank)  projected that  the prolonged Russia-Ukraine crisis will have far-reaching economic consequences on Thailand’s economic recovery.
• The oil prices may persist for another 3 months. Prior to the war, Thai consumers already experienced high oil prices, forcing the government to cut excise tax on diesel to keep the retail prices below 30 baht per litre.
• In terms of the tourism prospect, Thailand could lose around 35.95 billion baht in potential tourism revenue, approximately 0.2% of GDP if the Russians cannot visit the Kingdom due to the war. Usually, the number of foreign tourists to rise to 7 million, of whom 450,000 are expected to be from Russia, according to Ministry of Finance. Prachachart

Analysis from the Office of Foreign Trade in Moscow, Department of International Trade Promotion

Kittinan Yingcharoen, Director of the Office of Foreign Trade in Moscow said Thai businesses in Russia won’t affect much as there is only two Thai owned business in Russia

• He suggested that the exporters should not be worried with the situation since the sanction measures (from other countries to Australia) are still unclear.
• However, Ruble value will be dropped by 10% comparing to US dollars and Euro which will result in the raising price of imported goods. But this will affect to every country so Thailand has yet lost its commercial competitiveness
• Since the oil price will be raised, the transportation cost for goods will increase.  Thairath

Economics  

Russia – Ukraine conflict

• Russia’ invasion of Ukraine had pushed up global oil price, which will aggravate the existing inflation problem in Thailand.  It could lead to global stagflation, which will hit Thailand’s export-dependent economy hard, as Thailand is also heavily dependent on oil and energy imports. 
• The invasion could hit Thailand’s tourism sector.  Finance Ministry forecasted the number of total foreign tourists to Thailand to rise to 7 million, of which 450,000 are expected to be from Russia.  Without Russian tourists, Thailand could lose 35.95 billion Baht in potential revenue; equivalent to 0.2 percent of GDP.
• Through the sanctions imposed by Western countries and Japan, the invasion could cause a global supply shock.  Global chip and semiconductor supplies might go down, thus impact Thailand’s exports of automobiles and electronics. However, the war could also provide opportunities for Thai exports to replace Russian exports in new products and markets. 
• Currently there are only 2 Thai companies to invest in Russia. So far, none had been affected.  Sources:  Thai PBS The Nation
• Ministry of Finance was tasked with analysing the Russian-Ukraine war, predicting impacts for the Thai and global economies and drafting response measures. Specifically, MoF is monitoring inflation, currency fluctuations and higher product and commodity prices. 
• Ministry of Commerce had set up a war room to monitor the impacts of the war on commodity prices and to cushion the effects on Thai businesses. NESDC is closely monitoring the situation to ensure the least impact on the Thai economy and ensure that 2022 GDP could grow by 4 percent as projected.  Source:  Thai Rath
• Federation of Thai Industries anticipated that the Russian-Ukraine war may prevent the Thai economy from achieving the projected 3-4.5 percent GDP growth this year.  Source:  Bangkok Post

Others

• Thailand and Malaysia agreed to target bilateral trade of USD30 billion (973.5 billion baht) by 2025 as well as to explore opportunities to collaborate on digital and BCG economies. The announcement was made after PM Prayut met with Malaysia’s PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob on 25 February. Bolstering trade is among the 4 key issues discussed by both PMs, others being boosting connectivity (Vaccinated Travel Lane); border security especially in southern Thailand and reviving mechanism for bilateral discussions.  Sources:  Bangkok Post Thai Rath Naew Na
• At the global ‘Huawei Day 0 Forum – Lighting Up the Future’ summit at MWC Barcelona 2022 (Mobile World Congress) in Spain in February, Huawei Technologies (Thailand) invited Thailand’s Siriraj Hospital to showcase the first world-class 5G Smart Hospital solution which is further innovating the healthcare industry. Siriraj Hospital has thus become a world-class blueprint for the global healthcare industry.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• The government’s Electric Vehicle (EV) incentive package should stimulate demand for EVs in Thailand and not only increase the supply of EVs in the market, advised Thai Embedded Systems Association.  The package must benefit local manufacturers along the entire value chain. The government needs a strategy and vision to make Thailand the centre for EV manufacturing or development. To promote EV usage and production in Thailand, the government should consider the whole EV ecosystem, such as the number and locations of EV charging depots, the capability of the entire EV supply chain, EV standard examination centres and the number and capability of technicians and engineers.  Source:  Bangkok Post
• Russia-Ukraine tensions will not affect APEC during Thailand’s chairmanship this year, according to the Foreign Ministry. Representatives of all APEC economies intend to continue promoting economic development and integration.  Source:  The Nation

The APEC inter-governmental forum proposed a ‘Safe Passage’ scheme to reconnect all economic areas and improve travel procedures for APEC member states.  Various proposals were considered in the SOM1 meeting to provide APEC members with safer and more efficient travel. For the short term plan, spanning the next 2 months, the focus will be on building key public infrastructure and an information-sharing platform.  Source:  Bangkok Post